CROP YIELD FORECAST JRC EUR ISSN VOL.19 No.20 (2011)

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1 JRC EUR ISSN VOL.19 No.20 (2011) CROP YIELD FORECAST Period of analysis: 11 th September 20 th October Issue date: 25 th October Promising crop season for grain maize confirmed at EU27 level Total cereals production is estimated at 280,10 Mt at EU27 level which is -3.0 % less than the 5 years average. In comparison with last year, the production for EU27 of winter cereals will be lower by -1.7 % for soft wheat, -9.9 % for winter barley and % for durum wheat. The production of grain maize and spring barley is forecast at higher levels (+8.0 % and +5.2 % respectively in comparison with last year). Yields for all crops are forecast higher than both those of and the 5 years average, except soft wheat (-0.1 % vs ), winter barley (-2.4 %) and rapeseed (-2.8%). Yield forecast for grain maize is higher than the 5 years average in all EU27 producers. Among the main producers, the production forecast is higher in comparison to (from +4.0 % in IT to % in ES). In RO the production is also forecast at a higher level than in (+7.8 %) but this reflects rather the increase in the acreage (+16.1 %) than the yield performance (-7.1 %). Crops Avg 2011 %11/10 %11/5yrs 5yrs TOTAL CEREALS Total Wheat soft wheat durum wheat Total Barley spring barley winter barley Grain maize Other cereals Rape seed Potato Sugar beets Sunflower Note: Sources: Yields are forecast for crops with more than ha per country; figures are rounded to 100 kg data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 2011 yields come from MARS CROP YIELD FORECASTING SYSTEM (CGMS output up to 20/10/2011)

2 Yield Tables and Maps EU27 Cereals and other crops yield as of 25 October 2011 Crops 2011 TOTAL CEREALS Total Wheat soft wheat durum wheat Total Barley spring barley winter barley Grain maize Other cereals Rape seed Potato Sugar beets Sunflower EU27 Difference in yield for active crops Crop 20-Sep 25-Oct % Diff grain maize potato sugar beets sunflower Sources: data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 1

3 EU27 Total wheat yield as of 25 October 2011 EU AT BE BG CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LU LV NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK

4 EU27 Soft wheat yield as of 25 October 2011 EU AT BE BG CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LU LV NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Sources: data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 3

5 EU27 Durum wheat yield as of 25 October 2011 Note: EU AT DE ES FR GR HU IT SK Sources: Yields are forecast for crops with more than ha per country; figures are rounded to 100 kg data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 2011 yields come from MARS CROP YIELD FORECASTING SYSTEM (CGMS output up to 20/10/2011) 4

6 EU27 Total barley yield as of 25 October 2011 EU AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LV NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Sources: data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 5

7 EU27 Winter barley yield as of 25 October 2011 EU AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK ES FR GR HU IE IT PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Sources: data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 6

8 EU27 Spring barley yield as of 25 October 2011 EU AT CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IE LT LV NL PL RO SE SK UK Sources: data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 7

9 EU27 Grain maize yield as of 25 October 2011 EU AT BE BG CZ DE ES FR GR HU IT LT NL PL PT RO SI SK Sources: data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 8

10 EU27 Rape seed yield as of 25 October 2011 Note: EU AT BE BG CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IT LT LV PL RO SE SK UK Yields are forecast for crops with more than ha per country; figures are rounded to 100 kg Sources: data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 9

11 EU27 Sunflower yield as of 25 October 2011 EU AT BG CZ DE ES FR GR HU IT PT RO SK Sources: data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 10

12 EU27 Sugar beets yield as of 25 October 2011 EU AT BE CZ DE DK ES FI FR HU IT LT NL PL RO SE SK UK Sources: data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 11

13 EU27 Potato yield as of 25 October 2011 EU AT BE BG CZ DE DK ES FI FR GR HU IE IT LT LV NL PL PT RO SE SK UK Sources: data come from EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 03/10/2011) and EES (last update: 20/09/2011) 12

14 EU27 neighbourhood UKRAINE barley grain maize wheat BELARUS barley grain maize wheat TURKEY barley grain maize wheat

15 The current MARS* Bulletin is an EC publication from AGRI4CAST action (JRC/IES MARS Unit) 2011 MARS Bulletin (update) Publication date in 2011 Publication Reference Analysis and reports B. Baruth, J. Bojanowski, A. Bussay, G. Duveiller, M. El Aydam, W. Kasperska-Wolowicz, R. Lopez, A. Rosenmund, V. Vassilev Edition M. El Aydam, B. Baruth, M. Bettio, S. Niemeyer Data production MARS unit AGRI4CAST/JRC and ALTERRA (NL), Meteoconsult (NL), VITO (BE) Further information can be found in the website. All MARS Bulletin are available under: MARS agrometeorological data and data processing is available at Contacts JRC IES-MARS / AGRI4CAST Action I Ispra (VA) Fax agri4cast@jrc.ec.europa.eu Legal Notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication. Disclaimer The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position. 8 Feb Agrometeorological analysis and weather forecast Vol. 19 No. 1 8 Mar Agromet. analysis, remote sensing and yield forecast Vol. 19 No Mar Agrometeorological analysis and weather forecast Vol. 19 No Apr Crop yield forecast Vol. 19 No.4 12 Apr Agrometeorological analysis and weather forecast Vol. 19 No May Agromet. analysis, remote sensing and yield forecast Vol. 19 No Jun Agrometeorological analysis and weather forecast Vol. 19 No Jun Agromet. analysis, remote sensing and yield forecast Vol. 19 No Jun Pasture monitoring in Europe Vol. 19 No Jul Agrometeorological analysis and weather forecast Vol. 19 No Jul Agromet. analysis, remote sensing and yield forecast Vol. 19 No Jul Rice monitoring in Europe Vol. 19 No Aug Agrometeorological analysis and weather forecast Vol. 19 No Aug Crop yield forecast Vol. 19 No.14 6 Sep Agrometeorological analysis and weather forecast Vol. 19 No Sep Agromet. analysis, remote sensing and yield forecast Vol. 19 No Oct Agrometeorological analysis and weather forecast Vol. 19 No Oct Rice monitoring in Europe Vol. 19 No Oct Pasture monitoring in Europe Vol. 19 No Oct Crop yield forecast Vol. 19 No Nov Agrometeorological analysis and weather forecast Vol. 19 No Nov Agromet. analysis, remote sensing and yield forecast Vol. 19 No Dec Agrometeorological analysis and weather forecast Vol. 19 No. 23 Special issues are planned for crop monitoring in countries outside EU27 *MARS stands for Monitoring Agriculture ResourceS Unit JRC EUR 24736, Scientific and Technical Research series ISSN (online), ISSN (print) European Union 2011 LB-AM EN-C