Monitoring production of main producing countries

Transcription

1 Monitoring production of main producing countries Bruno Buffaria HoU Arable Crops European Commission Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development AGRISAT workshop, 13/10/2010

2 13-14 Oct 2010 CONTENT Context World figures World prices Information and data flow Final comments

3 2010/11 fcst structural aspects 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Oct 2010 World cereal production evolution / / / / / / / /10 est Wheat Maize Barley Other cereals 2001/ / / tonnes

4 structural aspects World cereal production and consumption ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 mio t 1, / / / / / / / / / /10 est 2010/11 fcst Total production Ending Stocks Total Consumption Wheat Consumption Maize Consumption Oct 2010

5 Others structural aspects 400, , , , , , ,000 50, Oct 2010 Main cereal producers Average 2005/2006 to 2009/2010 Brazil Canada Ukraine Mexico Argentina Australia Turkey Nigeria Pakistan Wheat Maize Barley Others Russia India China 1000 tonnes United States EU

6 structural aspects World cereal main exporters United States Argentina Canada EU extra-trade Russia Australia Ukraine Brazil China World top-exporters of cereals (excluding rice) Average 2005/06 to 2009/10 Turkey India Others 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90, t Oct 2010

7 13-14 Oct 2010 structural aspects World cereal main importers % Japan EU extra-trade Mexico Egypt South Korea Saudi Arabia Brazil Algeria Iran Indonesia China United States Morocco Colombia Malaysia Iraq Nigeria Syria Israel Philippines Peru Others 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.1% 4.0% 3.4% 3.3% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 10.4% World top-importers of cereals (excluding rice) Average 2005/06 to 2009/10 In % of total world trade 31.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

8 EU 27 TRADE 40 mio t C O A R S E Exports EU27 Cereals exports and imports by marketing year included processed products in grain equivalent 10 W H E A T 0 W C Imports Source: EUROSTAT - 08/2010 (some data missing for 06/2010) Export coarse grains Export wheat Import coarse grains Import wheat 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/ Oct 2010

9 13-14 Oct MMT 200 Wheat balance sheet (IGC) Source: IGC Sept report World Ending Stocks of which 5 major exporters World Production World Consumption MM T (est) 2010 (fcst) 560

10 13-14 Oct 2010 Wheat production in main exporters (IGC) , Mio t ,5 21, , ,5 11,5 0 EU USA Canada Australia Argentina Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Source: IGC Sept report

11 13-14 Oct 2010 Maize balance sheet (IGC) 500 Source: IGC Sept report MMT World Ending Stocks of which US World Production 800 MM T World Consumption (est) 2010 (fcst) 700

12 04/10/2010 Wheat export prices since 1/6/ /t France Rouen /t Germany Hamburg 450 US$/t US HRW Gulf US$/t US SRW Gulf 400 /t US SRW Gulf Differences in average and variability (break point summer 2006) /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ Oct 2010 US$/t et eur/t

13 16/08/ /10/2010 Wheat export prices since 1/1/ /t France Rouen 500 Low stocks /t Germany Hamburg US$/t US HRW Gulf 450 US$/t US SRW Gulf 400 /t US SRW Gulf 350 Russian embargo 300 High stocks /01/ /02/ /04/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /07/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ Oct 2010 US$/t et eur/t

14 Wheat export prices since 1/6/ /t France Rouen /t Germany Hamburg US$/t US HRW Gulf US$/t US SRW Gulf USDA decreases estimates /t US SRW Gulf 300 Russia declares embargo 250 UKR declares export quota Raising concerns for Black Sea drought 01/06/09 01/07/09 01/08/09 01/09/09 01/10/09 01/11/09 01/12/09 01/01/10 01/02/10 01/03/10 01/04/10 01/05/10 01/06/10 01/07/10 01/08/10 01/09/10 01/10/ Oct 2010 US$/t et eur/t

15 13-14 Oct 2010 Russian figures ballet (tot grain mio t.) April May June July August Date Official - Ag. Min <85 <80* Grain Union Analysts *Economy Ministry On 7 th July the Agr Min announced that Russia will have an exportable production of 20 mio t On 14th July Agr Min announced less than 85 mio t On 3 Aug 75 mio t.

16 13-14 Oct 2010 EU Wheat cumulated export commitments /07/ /06/2010 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY 01/07/ /09/2010 WHEAT CUMULATED EXP MY 2009/10 AVERAGE 5MY t TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY MY 2010/

17 13-14 Oct 2010 Russia and Ukraine wheat yields 4.00 Ukraine agromet models Ukraine econometrics models t/ha Russia econometrics models Russia agromet models / / / / / / / / / /11

18 13-14 Oct 2010 Some conclusive remarks Demand and Production growing in a context where - Rigid demand elasticity vs prices - Commodities markets the more and more linked among them - Restrictive export measures have a global effect - Higher price volatility than in the past Crop yields variability is the main cause of short term change in market equilibrium - Weather/climatic effects on crops are today causing this abrupt change in market balance and are triggering a dramatic price change together with other factors Estimating/predicting tools of these effects are necessary to anticipate market imbalances and enhance governance of price and food crisis

19 13-14 Oct 2010 From official statement of The Extraordinary Joint Intersessional meeting of the Intergovernmental Group (IGG/FAO) on Grains stated (24 Sept Rome): Unexpected price hikes and volatility are amongst major threats to food security and their roots causes need to be addressed, in particular regarding the lack of reliable and up-to-date information on crop supply and demand and export availability.

20 Thank you

21 $/t and eur/tt 02/10/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ Maize export prices since 1/6/2000 $/t US 3YC Gulf eur/t France eur/t US 3YC Gulf $/t Argentina Up River Differences in average and variability (break point summer 2006) Oct 2010

22 Maize export prices since 1/1/ Low stocks $/t US 3YC Gulf eur/t France eur/t US 3YC Gulf $/t Argentina Up River 250 Russian embargo $/t and eur/tt 200 High stocks /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ Oct 2010