SEASONAL FORUM & USER EXPERIENCES. Pone Nyet Khaing Program Officer - RIMES 28 September 2018

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1 SEASONAL FORUM & USER EXPERIENCES Pone Nyet Khaing Program Officer - RIMES 28 September 2018

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINES 1. Monsoon Forum and its Status in South Asian Region 2. Experiences of Application of Forecast Information 3. Summary

3 MONSOON FORUM PROCESS AND ITS STATUS IN SOUTH ASIAN REGION

4 MONSOON FORUM PROCESS Regional Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) Facilitates forecast-based institutional decisions: Capacity building of users Local National and Sub Nation Complementing mechanisms (Location-specific agroadvisory system, capacity building of local institutions) National COF /Monsoon Forum Enhancing forecast communication and responding to user requirements: Capacity Building of NMHs. Application of Forecast Information by User Sectors Facilitates forecastbased farmers decisions

5 GENERATION OF FORECAST Improved products and services based on user demands MONSOON FORUM PROCESS DOCUMENTATION OF THE SEASON AND PROVISION OF FEEDBACK AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONVENING MONSOON FORUM WITH SECTORAL STAKEHOLDERS Institutional participation MONITORING AND ADJUSTMENTS IN DECISIONS, AS NECESSARY ANALYSES OF FORECAST- BASED POTENTIAL RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES, AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES Improved analyses and application, based on experiences REPORTING BACK TO INSTITUTIONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF INFORMED PLANS & DECISIONS

6 MONSOON FORUM STATUS IN SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES BANGLADESH: 10 TH MONSOON FORUM BHUTAN: 3 RD NATIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (4 th NCOF) MYANMAR: 20 TH MONSOON FORUM NEPAL: 7 TH MONSOON FORUM PAKISTAN: 6 TH MONSOON FORUM SRI LANKA: 18 TH MONSOON FORUM

7 USER EXPERIENCES OF APPLICATION OF FORECAST INFORMATION

8 Monsoon Forum establishment in Myanmar 6 th -8 th Monsoon Forum 9 th -16 th Monsoon Forum 17 th Monsoon Forum 18 th and 19 th Monsoon Forum 20 th Monsoon Forum Seasonal climate risk management Seasonal climate risk management with focus on food security Multi-hazard, multi-timescales preparedness Resources and risks management Multi-hazard, multi-timescales resources and risks management, with focus on seasonal outlook Multi-hazard, multitimescales resources and risks management, Good practices Multi-hazard, multitimescales resources and risks management, Good practices Response-todemand mechanism Impact forecasting Satellite products for drought monitoring Impact forecasting Satellite products for drought monitoring Response-todemand Response-todemand UNISDR FAO UNESCAP WMO UNESCAP UNESCAP

9 National Monsoon Forum Sub-National Monsoon Forum Local Level Monsoon Forum UNISDR, FAO, UNESCAP and WMO UN Habitat, UK Aid Christian Aid

10 Recommendations from Sub-national MF Awareness raising on Climate and Weather Information Source and available products from DMH Capacity Building on Forecast Translation and Application to users To convene township level forums Upgrading DMH capacity at sub-national and township level To include complete information of storm Cyclone color code system review

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13 Specialized Expert System for Agro Meteorological Early Warning (SESAME): Evolution demand demand Tool development & further expansion Customization to select areas Mobile app demand NyaungOo Monywa

14 SESAME: Accessing the System Web-based Mobile Based Forecast WRF ECMWF Visualization of Forecast Parameters (ECMWF) Validation of Forecast vs Observed Crop Advisory Text Voice Feedback

15 DMH DOA Capacity Building Training to DOA Focal End User Training and Introduction to the Tool

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17 Meeting with farmers for sharing DMH mandate and services and demonstration of how to install raingauge and measure rainfall

18 Forecast Based Preparedness by DOA and IWUMD (2018 Monsoon Season) DOA advises for flood mitigation plan for various states and regions Farmers in dry zone decided to select spread type groundnut (180 days variety) for monsoon season and their cropping time is end of May (Monsoon Onset Forecast Date) Farmer who grow summer crop are advised to check 3 day and 10-day forecast and plan early harvest (before end of May as Monsoon Onset Date for Central Myanmar is May) as if it necessary IWUMD - Strengthening of embankments in Ayeyarwady Region Digging and re-excavating of drainage canals Enlarging of spillway capacity of reservoirs

19 General Weather Outlook for Monsoon Period (Rainfall Forecast) 28 April 2018 Early-Monsoon Above Normal Mid-Monsoon Normal Normal Late-Monsoon Below Normal

20 Myanmar DEEP DEPRESSION MAY 2018

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22 Monywa Township Experience of Providing Crop Advisory using forecast information from DMH SESAME 10 days forecast received on 21 May 2018 and 3 days forecast on 25 May suggested possibility for significant rainfall during from end of May and early June. The DOA Officer analysed the potential rainfall could be both in aid of and detrimental to standing crops and he developed and provided advisories: Farmers who grow summer crops were advised not to irrigate as rainfall is expected Farmers who grow Green Gram and crop cultivated in lower elevation area are advised to prepare drainage canal to prevent flooding in the farm land (Green Gram was already at a stage where it is sensitive to and/or doesn t like much water) Farmers who grow Sesame were advised to make a leakage canal from farm land to prevent from extreme wet (Sesame also doesn t need much water by that time)

23 Monywa Township Experience Cont d As forecasted, Monywa received aboout6 inch of rainfall on those days and farmers: Saved MMK 2,013,000 (USD 1,500) of irrigation cost (fuel, machine rental, labor, and other associated costs) for approximately 122 acres of agricultural land in Monywa Township 87 acres of green gram was protected from water-related damages, saving total farmer investments of about MMK 4,698,000 (USD 3,600) Sesame farmers who abode with the advisories were able to save their crops (24 acres), and surpassed their 2017 pre-monsoon average production Upon receipt of information, some farmers took action, others did not, and there were some who wanted to take action, but had limited resources (e.g., labor cost were high) so that some farm lands were damaged.

24 SUMMARY 1. SASCOF process enhances capacity and confidence levels of NMHSs to provide seasonal outlooks and engage effectively with user sectors. 2. National Monsoon Forum are the single vehicle between NMHS and User Institutions to exchange information; experience based recommendations from Users, better understanding and application of climate outlook for respective sectors 3. Demonstration of information application at institutional and individual level could be seen in MF countries 4. Sub-national and township level forums were convened in 2016 and 2017 in seven states and regions 5. RIMES-NMHS has engaged with Irrigation and Water Sector and future plan to expand to other sectors; Health and Disaster Management Sector