Resilient milk production systems for an expanding Irish dairy industry post 2015

Transcription

1 Resilient milk production systems for an expanding Irish dairy industry post 2015 Dr. Brendan Horan Animal and Grassland Research and Innovation Centre, Teagasc Moorepark

2 Presentation Outline Expansion in Irish dairying in 2014 & the role of resilience Key performance indicators for resilient systems The 4 strategic pillars of resilient farm businesses Agronomy for expansion A strategy for milk production - The farm system The cow Farm business management Conclusions

3 The Milk Production Environment of 2014 Milk price volatility is the new reality for dairy farm businesses (20 to 40 c/l) (Teagasc National Farm Survey, various years) Top 10% profit of 2,000/ha - lower costs, higher SRs & higher performance Significant latent capacity, ambition and low debt levels on dairy farms

4 What do we know about Irish farming systems? Farm system (Supplement DM %) 1 (<10%) 2 (10-20%) 3 (20-30%) 4 (>30%) Imported feed in the diet (% of total DM) Stocking rate (LU/ha) Grazing season length (days) Forage utilised (t DM/cow) (t DM/ha) Supplements fed (t DM/cow) Milk solids (kg/cow) Total costs (c/litre) Net Margin ( /ha) Ramsbottom et al., 2014

5 Net profit ( /ha) The Milk Production Environment of 2014 The profitability of Irish dairying is intrinsically linked to grass utilisation Each additional tonne of DM/ha is worth 161/ha R 2 = Estimated Grass utilisation t DM/ha

6 The Milk Production Environment of 2014 NFS statistics:the relative profitability of larger herds is reduced Large scale expansion only considered by Top10% Total milk production costs < 3.00/kg MS More complex farming businesses requiring operational excellence Additional milk derived from grazed grass Increased operation scale may not increase profitability (Teagasc National Farm Survey, ) Dis-economies of scale

7 Key Lessons from the Greenfield Project Dairy farm expansion is time consuming & adds severe workload Expansion increases non-discretionary spending: Larger & more complicated farming businesses Increasingly dependant on leased land & hired labour Additional fixed (infrastructural) and variable (animal related) costs Cash flow management critical during conversion & initial years when herd & pasture performance are sub-optimal prioritise investments to areas of maximum & immediate return Additional young stock rearing costs are high

8 The Necessity for Resilient Systems Expanding dairy farm businesses must be resilient based on a farm system strategy/plan which provides a vehicle for business growth simple & labour efficient with minimal decision making/ repeatable insulated from milk price & climate instability consistently meet profitability expectations (profit/ha & costs/kg MS) producing high quality product in an environmentally friendly manner

9 Key Performance Indicators for Resilient Systems Based on 2012 statistics Current Current Target Average Top 10% Pasture growth (t DM/ha) Pasture Quality (% OMD) 75* 80* 85 Herd EBI ( ) >200 6 week herd calving rate (%) 55 70* 90 Grass utilisation (tons DM/ha) 7.0* 9.0* 14.0 Milk solids (kg/ha) ,400 Nitrogen use efficiency (%) 25* - 40 Cows per labour unit (No./LU) *estimates based on available information

10 The 4 Strategic Pillars of Resilient Farming Systems Alignment of grass supply & feed requirements The resilient dairy cow Agronomy for expansion increased grass production Farm Business Management

11 % of cows in the herd kg DM / Hectare daily Alignment of Grass Supply & Animal Requirements Daily pasture growth rate Daily herd feed requirement 1. High milk productivity (1,400 kg MS/ha) 2. Long grazing lactation (285+ days) Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 3. Environmentally efficient 4. 90% home grown feed Compact calving high fertility status dairy herd Spring Summer Winter CALVE CONCEIVE 285+ DIM DRIED-OFF Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

12 Identifying the stocking rate for a resilient system Previous stocking rate studies have highlighted the biologically optimum SR Pasture grown, t t supplement DM/cow *All of these stocking rates equate to 85 kg live weight/t feed DM available.

13 Recruiting the Resilient Dairy Cow The Essential qualifications, skills and behaviors of a resilient dairy cow Essential Desirable Qualifications High EBI Feed efficient - suited to higher Feb/March calving SR systems Skills Excellent fertility & health High MS production Easy care Behavioural Competencies Self motivated - ability to work as part of a larger team

14 Recruiting the Resilient Dairy Cow (Inter)national research & the benefits to crossbreeding Milk production (Prendiville et al., 2010; Dillon et al., 2007) Fertility (Prendiville et al., 2011; Sneddon, 2011; Vance et al., 2011) Feed efficiency (Grainger and Goddard, 2004; Prendiville et al., 2010) Survivability (Lopez-Villalobos et al., 2000; Dillon et al., 2007) Profitability (Prendiville et al., 2011; Buckley et al., 2007 ) Crossbred cattle outperform pure breeds on Irish farms Holstein Jersey Holstein Jersey Crossbreds Milk solids yield (kg) 399 a 386 b 421 c Calving Interval (days) 389 a 385 ab 382 c Coffey et al., 2014

15 Agronomy Growing more higher quality feed Soil fertility status & nutrient management planning Currently only 11% of dairy soil samples are of satisfactory status S. Lawlor; Irish Dairy Industry Statistics, Teagasc 2014

16 Agronomy Growing more higher quality feed Grazing practices to promote growth & support high performance grazing infrastructure intensive grassland measurement feed budgeting identification and renewal of unproductive swards sward focused grazing strategies (particularly on marginal soils) Improved grazing practices can lift grass DM production by 1 ton DM/ha/yr

17 Farm Management: The CEO Role Expanding farms require skilled management: science-led high performance Need for effective tactical management How will we evaluate farm financial health & opportunity? What are my repeatable production costs? What capital investments/ rental prices can be afforded? Increasingly reliant on working with various business partners contractors, suppliers, more hired labour and more professional assistance Expansion is precarious to do so without a realistic plan and clear financial return expectations is likely to result in expanding for expansions sake

18 Conclusions Outlook & profit potential for well managed dairy systems is excellent Future expanded industry health dependant on milk from grazing Expanding dairy farm businesses must have a resilient strategy Agronomic practices to maximise grass DM production An appropriate overall farm SR to utilise produced DM A high fertility/compact calving easy care dairy cow Excellent business & tactical management skills

19 We wish to acknowledge Irish dairy farmer funding of this research

20 CR1 Sexed Semen Herds Conception rate 2013 Irish dairy herds are not sufficiently fertile for strict compact calving 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Average CR1 = 42% CR1 Herd