Who manages water? Tony Allan, King's College London. 12 July 2015, Caux Forum

Transcription

1 Who manages water? Tony Allan, King's College London 12 July 2015, Caux Forum

2 Who manages water? Water in food supply chains and the role of farmers in managing water sustainably

3 Will there be enough water? More people 7 billion now 9 billion by 2050 More calories & more meat, fish, milk consumption More food production need to increase grain production by %? 70%? 100%? More water for food via sustainable intensification Pessimists are wrong but useful Optimists are right but dangerous?

4 Types of water and energy???

5 Types of water and energy

6 Types of water and energy

7 We need to know about and understand role of the private sector.. Especially the role of the demand for cheap food on whether society can manage sustainably the water resources on which food security depends.. Farmers manage water and Food consumers determine the demand for food. We need to distinguish GREEN WATER & BLUE WATER & FOOD WATER and NON-FOOD WATER

8 Previous and new development eras?

9 Blue water, Green water & Virtual water Blue / Fresh / Surface plus Groundwater Embedded in trade

10 Green Water flows in Kenya Source: Dent et al 2007

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14 0.5 Bn Farmers

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16 Will there be enough water?

17 3500 One litre of water produces one calorie on average Developed countries 3000 Food Supply (total calorie n es per Calories capita per day) Food Supply in Threshold for national food security World Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

18 Growth in Yields IPCC yields in SSA will decline by 50% because of climate change United States It is possible to more than double yields in SSA in spite of climate change. China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa

19 Virtual Water Trade

20 The Economist March 2013

21 OCSE Members The Economist March 2013

22 Good news and very good news Importing other nations environments Exporting their environments Very bad news and news and mixed news The Economist March 2013

23 Trends in food prices July Food price index Jan

24 Trends in food prices July Food price index Jan

25 Trends in food prices July Food price index Jan

26 July Food price index Jan

27 The four social solidarities that engage constructively, or not, to achieve sustainable outcomes for civil society and the environment. Source: Thompson also see Gywali on the approach

28 The 4 ways of life frame (Source: Thompson 1990) with the private sector food supply chain sub-nexus mapped on to it.

29 Who will save the world? Farmers Operators of water infrastructures The Big-Ag Seed, Fertilizer, Chemical Corporates The Big-Food-Commodity Traders The Big Food & Beverage Corporates The Big Supermarkets The Other Major Food Distributors The State including law & regulation Accountants & Reporting Rules Investors / Sustainable investment The Food and Water NGOs Local & International The Multi- and Bi-Lateral Aid Agencies Consumers Society by adopting sound ideas and behaviour

30 Who has power in current supply chains Farmers Operators of water infrastructures The Big-Ag Seed, Fertilizer, Chemical Corporates The Big-Food-Commodity Traders The Big Food & Beverage Corporates The Big Supermarkets The Other Major Food Distributors Investors???/Sustainable investment The State including law & regulation Accountants & Reporting Rules The Food and Water NGOs Local & International The Multi- and Bi-Lateral Aid Agencies Consumers Society by adopting sound behaviour

31 Who will secure water and food for society? Farmers Operators of water infrastructures The Big-Ag Seed, Fertilizer, Chemical Corporates The Big-Food-Commodity Traders The Big Food & Beverage Corporates The Big Supermarkets The Other Major Food Distributors Investors???/Sustainable investment The State including law & regulation Accountants & Reporting Rules The Food and Water NGOs Local & International The Multi- and Bi-Lateral Aid Agencies Consumers including students Society by adopting sound behaviour

32 FINI

33 Thank you