Seasonal calendar and critical events. HAITI Food Security Outlook N 0 23 October 2009 through March 2010 CNSA/MARNDR

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1 CNSA/MARNDR HAITI Food Security Outlook N 0 23 October 2009 through March 2010 As of October 2009, the food insecure population is estimated at 1.8 million people. This figure should show a downward trend through March This decrease is due to several factors, including good agricultural performance of the last season; low inflation (especially for the category of food, beverages and tobacco), the continuation of infrastructure projects across the country, and weather conditions favorable to national agricultural production of the season in progress (August 2009 January 2010). The 2009 hurricane season that will end in November 2009 has not been detrimental to date. However, these factors alone cannot lead to substantial improvements in food security conditions in the baseline scenario considered. Other factors to take into account include the price of oil on the international market and inflation in the U.S. dollar versus the gourde. These two variables would increase the price of imported goods and thus lead to a resumption of inflation. Figure 1. Current food security assessment, October 2009 Source: CNSA/FEWS NET For more information on the FEWS NET Food Insecurity Severity Scale, see: For a significant improvement of food security, CNSA and FEWS NET suggest that the Government and its partners take the following measures: 1) Help farmers obtain needed farm inputs in time for the winter growing season (November 2009 through February 2010); 2) Develop and implement programs to improve nutrition and health of students at the basic education level, especially in poor districts of Port au Prince, and in the Northwest and Southeast regions. Seasonal calendar and critical events Source: FEWS NET This report is made possible by assistance from the following organizations: CNSA: FEWS NET Haiti: haiti@fews.net; European Union CNSA 7, Delmas 99, PAP Haiti Tél-Fax. : (509) ; FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC World Food Program The opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations assisting the CNSA (European Union, FAO, and WFP) and FEWS NET (USAID).

2 Current food security conditions The size of the food insecure population since the July/August 2009 harvest is estimated at approximately 1.8 million inhabitants. This population is concentrated mainly in dry agropastoral areas of the Northwestern, Southeastern, and Artibonite regions and also includes households in slum areas of Port au Prince. Outside these areas, there are pockets of food insecurity all across the country. The poorest and, thus, highest risk households in these areas depend on the market for most of their food supplies. Working members of these households are employed as farm laborers in rural areas or are engaged in peddling/street hawking in urban areas. As discussed below, food prices on local markets and the supply of this type of unskilled labor are stable, which should preclude any short term rapid deterioration in the food security of this group of households. Food availability Virtually all parts of the country are still feeling the effects of the good spring harvest, which was roughly 25 percent larger than the harvest for the same season last year. There are ample supplies of local and imported crops on markets throughout Port au Prince and the provinces. According to data gathered by CNSA liaison officers, the bean harvest in humid mountain areas is still expected to be near average despite the below average rainfall in August and September. The rice harvest is already underway in irrigated monoculture areas of the Artibonite, which has driven down farm gate prices by 40 percent, or from 100 to 60 gourdes per 6 lb. sack. The corn harvest in the Cayes Plain area, another irrigated quasi single crop area, is in full swing, and yields are deemed to be average. There are good yam and fruit harvests which have only just gotten underway in the country s many humid mountain areas, particularly in the Northern, Southeastern, Nippes, and Grand Anse departments. These harvesting activities will go on until December. Thus, nearly all parts of the country are expecting average harvests of grain and pulse crops between January and March of next year. There are food reserves in all departments, except in dry farming and fishing areas of the Northwestern and Artibonite departments, where water shortages during the summer months destroyed grain and pulse crops. However, the entire department and the rest of the country have been reporting good rainfall since the end of August, which has helped spur the planting of crops. Thus, there should be some improvement in conditions in the Northwestern and Artibonite areas shaded in red on Figures 1 and 3 with the next round of harvests of sorghum, pigeon pea, cassava, bean, and corn crops in the first quarter of next year. Food access According to the latest report by the Haitian Statistics and Information Technology Institute (IHSI), the cost of living has been steadily declining for the last three months, with fluctuations in the general consumer price index for the period from July through September of this year averaging out to 2.8 percent, bringing it down to its lowest level in a year. The price index for food, beverages, and tobacco was at 9.9%, reflecting a drop in food prices. This is attributable mainly to the good crop performance in July and August. A look at trends in income shows the creation of numerous new jobs in agriculture with the pick up in farming activities in the face of good rainy season conditions, particularly in humid mountain and monoculture plain areas. This has given farm laborers from very poor households in dry farming and fishing areas (mainly in the Northwestern and Southeastern departments where labor migration is the main household survival strategy) a good source of income, enabling them to meet their food security needs (see Figure 1). Moreover, national government agencies (the Ministries of Environment, Public Works, etc.) and international organizations (including USAID, UNDP, the European Union, and the CIDA) are mounting river clearing, watershed protection, and road construction programs hiring large numbers of workers in all departments across the country, both in rural and urban areas. This is increasing the number of wage earners and spurring the circulation of money in dry farming and livestock raising areas, humid mountain areas, and plateau areas where these works are currently in progress, particularly in the Western (Léogane, Cabaret, Croix des Bouquets), Artibonite (Gonaives), and Central (Thomonde, Hinche) departments. This boost in income is helping to offset the cost of back to school expenses. In any event, these expenses did not increase the inflation rate for the month of September, which was still negative. CNSA and FEWS NET 2

3 Migrant remittances picked up slightly in September (Figure 2), which helped many parents cover the cost of school related expenses without seriously affecting household food consumption. Available data does not show which regions of the country have benefited the most or the least from these increased remittances. The theory is that the combination of the small pick up in remittances and falling food prices in all parts of the country counteracted the effects of any factors aggravating food insecurity problems. Figure 2. Trends in remittances (millions of US$) All these factors are helping to sustain the improvement in food security conditions in all parts of the country since July. This Source: BRH food security assessment for the country as a whole does not mean that the entire population is able to meet its food needs. Exceptions include very poor residents of dry farming and fishing areas in the Southeast and dry agropastoral areas of the Northwestern and Artibonite areas, who are having a harder time after the water shortages in these areas during the last growing season. However, with good meteorological conditions and more sustained, targeted assistance programs, the size of the food insecure population can be brought down significantly. Food security outlook (October 2009 March 2010) With the favorable weather forecasts, the good macroeconomic outlook (i.e. low inflation), and likely new job creation, the current size of the food insecure population (approximately 1.8 million inhabitants) should come down over the threemonth period from October through December of this year to some extent, and even further in the first quarter of next year. However, this expected improvement in the food security situation is extremely precarious, since there is very little likelihood of any change in the structural conditions underlying these food insecurity problems (i.e. poverty, environmental degradation, poor access to basic services) in the short or medium term. The main variables and trends underlying the most likely (or baseline) food security scenario for the period from October of this year to March of next year are summarized in Table 1. Other important variables liable to affect food security conditions during the reference period but whose materialization is rather unlikely are outlined in Table 2. Trends in these variables were studied specifically from the standpoint of their potential impact on food availability and, more importantly, on food access (as determined primarily by trends in food prices and income). CNSA and FEWS NET 3

4 Table 1. Underlying assumptions in the most likely scenario for the period from October 2009 to March 2010 Variables Assumptions and expected impact on food security Time frame Trends in major food International market prices for major grain crops (wheat, corn, and rice) will remain October 2009 to prices and prices for comparatively stable in the face of current supply and demand for major food March 2010 other essential goods and services Crop production commodities. In contrast to 2008, international market supplies are up considerably according to an FAO report released in October of this year. With the Ministry of Finance predicting a 5 percent inflation rate for fiscal year 2010, there should not be any dramatic increase in the cost of living between October of 2009 and March of Harvests in wet mountain and single crop plain areas (in the Artibonite), which have been in progress since September, are average. These crops should help replenish reserves (of rice, corn, beans, tubers, and roots) until the next round of harvests of bean, rice, sorghum, tuber and root crops between January and March of next year. These latter harvests from the winter growing season are likely to benefit from aboveaverage rainfall, according to the good rainfall forecasts released by the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. This should help further strengthen food availability during the coverage period for this food security outlook. October 2009 to March 2010 Hazards and The NOAA, the U.S. meteorological agency, has revised its forecast for the 2009 October 2009 to disasters hurricane season and is now predicting less severe than usual end of season conditions. November 2009 The most critical period (August through October) has passed without any hurricanes, and the hurricane season is officially over by the end of November. Specialized agencies are also predicting average rainfall rather than the anticipated water shortages generally associated with the El Niño phenomenon. If these expert forecasts are borne out, the effects of localized droughts in the Northwest and the Southeast would be less severe than previously expected. Employment/income A slight rise in employment rates in the agricultural sector is expected after last season s good harvest. Thus, farm laborers from poor households in the Northwest should have an easier time finding work in single crop plain areas of the Artibonite Valley, which saw a dramatic expansion in irrigation networks and the volume of fertilizer use during the last growing season. The supply of labor is expected to increase, particularly in the Western, Artibonite, and Southern departments where road repair and construction projects and watershed protection works continue. This should help unskilled workers from dry farming and fishing areas. October 2009 to March 2010 Migrant remittances The Port au Prince metropolitan area should begin to feel the effects of new job creation, particularly in the garment industry where existing firms are expected to significantly expand their production capacity with the enactment of the Hope II Act which allows Haiti to manufacture and export apparel to the United States duty free for a period of ten years. The government has estimated the real economic growth rate for fiscal year 2010 at 2.5%, which gives it an opportunity to turn this growth into a small boost in employment and household income. The volume of migrant remittances is expected to remain stable, particularly with the easing of the economic crisis in host countries. These remittances are likely to increase as the year end holiday season gets closer, with large numbers of Haitians returning home for the holidays and bringing money into the country. The value of these funds brought with them rather than being sent through money transfer services will not be reflected in official statistics. October 2009 to March 2010 Physical isolation Physical isolation and environmental degradation are chronic problems in most wet October 2009 to and access to mountain areas (in the Western, Artibonite, Grande Anse, and Southeastern March 2010 services departments) which will continue to impede any short term improvement in food security conditions. CNSA and FEWS NET 4

5 Dry agropastoral areas, particularly in parts of the Northwestern and Artibonite departments (but also, though to a lesser extent, in the Northeast and Ile de la Gonâve) affected by the drought and poor harvest in July August account for most of the country s highly food insecure area. This is attributable to the fact that the effects of this poor harvest will continue to be felt throughout the period from October of this year to March of next year, regardless of the size of the November 2009/January 2010 harvest. Farming is becoming an increasingly unprofitable activity in these pockets of drought due, not only to the pattern of erratic, inadequate rainfall in these areas, but also to soil erosion problems. Local residents are stepping up sheep and goat raising activities and charcoal production, which are their main source of income. There are also still pockets of high levels of food insecurity concentrated mainly in wet mountain areas, due primarily to the poor road infrastructure in these areas. In many cases, the situation is further aggravated by advanced environmental degradation, as in the case of certain mountainous areas of the Artibonite and the West. On the whole, the rest of the country is either generally food secure or moderately food insecure. The number and relative weight of positive factors should keep most of the country only moderately food insecure, with food security conditions expected to show a slight improvement over the next six months, particularly in the first half of Figure 3. Most likely food security scenario, October March A. Most likely scenario, October-December B. Most likely scenario, January-March 2010 Source: CNSA/FEWS NET Table 2. Less likely events that could also affect the food security outlook Focus area Nation wide, particularly the Southern peninsula Nation wide Nation wide Events liable to change the current scenario More severe hurricane activity than expected Rise in the U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to the gourde Social unrest and political instability in connection with the February 2010 elections Impact on food security Likelihood** Indicators to monitor Large scale flooding and road closures, particularly on the Southern peninsula and in coastal cities like Gonaïves Sharper than expected rise in prices for imports, including oil and food, limiting access by the poor Civil security problems create an inauspicious climate for new job creation and may preclude good market supplies in especially hard hit areas Unlikely Unlikely with the increase in yearend remittances Unlikely, particularly before February of 2010 Existence of hurricane contingency plans Quality of these plans (coordination, etc.) Exchange rate for the gourde Oil prices Prices of imports Number of politicallymotivated violent incidents CNSA and FEWS NET 5

6 ** Probability level Description Unlikely Could materialize during the reference period with a moderate change in current circumstances Highly unlikely Could materialize during the reference period only with a major change in current circumstances Recommendations It is recommended that the government and its food security partners take the following measures designed to bolster the current trend towards a gradual contraction in the size of the food insecure population: Program area Activities Institutional stakeholders and suggested lead agencies Agriculture and environment Help farmers obtain timely supplies of necessary farm inputs and implements The NGO active in this area, Ministry of Agriculture, FAO Lead agencies: MARNDR and FAO Education Design and implement health and nutritional assistance programs for students at the basic education level in poor districts of Port au Prince, and the Northwest and Southeast BND, PNCS, National Education Ministry, UNICEF, Ministry of Health Lead agencies: National Education Ministry, PNCS CNSA and FEWS NET 6

7 ANNEX: Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin October 2009 Monthly prices are supplied by the CNSA/FEWS NET market information system. Rice, black beans, maize, and cooking oil are among the most important food items for poor and middle income households in Haiti. Roots and tubers are also important, but not currently monitored. All cooking oil is imported and rice imports account for about 80 percent of national needs. Large quantities of beans and maize are also imported, but over half of the national needs are domestically produced. Rice is consumed by even the poorest households, and imported rice is generally cheaper than locally produced rice. Croix de Bossales is the largest market in the country and is located in Port au Prince, where one third of the country s population lives. Hinche, in the center of the country, is located in one of the most vulnerable areas. Jeremie is the farthest market from Port au Prince and Jacmel is located in the Southeast department, a department particularly exposed to cyclones and known for having the highest rates of malnutrition in the country. Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

8 ANNEX: Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin October 2009 Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

9 ANNEX: Haiti Monthly Price Bulletin October 2009 Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii