Global trends in polyolefin markets and investments

Transcription

1 Global trends in polyolefin markets and investments ICIS Webinar October 216 Fabrizio Galiè, Global Lead for Polymers Insight, ICIS Consulting Access the presentation recording here >> 1

2 Agenda Overview of market trends Emerging threats: demand, margins, and non-economic factors Evaluating the investments Global outlook 2

3 Overview of market trends 3

4 Recent trends in the PE-PP markets A&P 14% N.America 16% PE+PP Consumption AAGR% 215 GDP 2.3 PE+PP 153 M t S&C America 5% Europe 18% WORLD A&P NE ASIA M.EAST AFRICA NE Asia 37% FSU EUROPE Africa 3% Middle East 4% FSU 3% S&C AMERICA -.3 N.AMERICA Copyright 216 ICIS 4

5 Regional market highlights Production and sales expansion in North America and Europe North America PE-PP quarterly S&D M tonnes Q1 214 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 215 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 216 Q2 Q3 F Q4 F PE demand PP demand PE Production PP Production Europe PE-PP quarterly S&D M tonnes Q1 214 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 215 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 216 Q2 Q3 F Q4 F PE demand PP demand PE Production PP production Copyright 216 ICIS 5

6 F Regional market highlights Economic fundamentals weak in S&C America and FSU M tonnes PE+PP annual incremental demand GDP % Russia Average Annual Growth Rates CAGR % Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Venezuela Others GDP LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP Copyright 216 ICIS 6

7 Regional market highlights Growth engines: Africa & Middle East and Asia M tonnes 1 Africa and Middle East demand M tonnes 5 Asia demand 215, by Country Middle East Other Africa South Africa West Africa East Africa North Africa PE demand PP demand PE CAGR% PP CAGR% Copyright 216 ICIS -1-1 Others Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Indonesia S. Korea Japan India China PE demand PP demand PE CAGR% PP CAGR% 7

8 Enquire about the ICIS-IeC Scenario Study 8

9 Emerging threats: demand, margins, and non-economic factors 9

10 Key economic factors MT MT China slowdown can affect the global landscape Polyethylene Consumption AAGR Polypropylene Consumption AAGR % % % China share of global demand HDPE LDPE LLDPE PP

11 /tonne USD/tonne Key economic factors Crude oil price affects margins, impacting investment strategies Europe PE-PP Integrated Margins vs Naphtha Asia PE-PP Integrated Margins vs Naphtha Integrated HDPE inj margin (naphtha) Integrated LDPE film margin (naphtha) Integrated HDPE inj margin (naphtha) Integrated LDPE film margin (naphtha) Integrated PP margin (naphtha) Naphtha CIF NWE (av.month) Integrated PP margin (naphtha) Naphtha spot CFR Japan (av. Month) Copyright 216 ICIS 11

12 Key economic factors Exchange rates affect trade dynamics $/ $/Turkish lira $/GBP $/Yuan Source: xe.com 12

13 Other factors Iran re-entering the international arena MT Iran Polyethylene Supply and Demand Iran Polypropylene Supply and Demand % Capacity Consumption Av. Util.Rate Capacity Consumption Av. Util.Rate Copyright 216 ICIS 13

14 Other factors Finance and international events are crucial to alter the landscape Insolvency and default risks Trade agreements versus barriers Brexit Refugee crisis Military conflicts Terrorist attacks Turkey Copyright 216 ICIS 14

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16 Evaluating the investments 16

17 World polyolefin capacity additions by region North America LDPE LLDPE HDPE.6 PP South & Central America Europe LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP Africa Middle East Former USSR LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP North East Asia LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP Asia Pacific 7.3 LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP Copyright 216 ICIS 17

18 North America Shale resources fuelled unprecedented investments Mt/y 6 North America major Ethylene capacity developments , by company Mt/y North America PE new plants , by company Braskem/Idesa CPChem Dow Chemical Equistar Braskem-Idesa CPChem Dow Chemical Equistar ExxonMobil Indorama Ingleside Lotte-Axiall ExxonMobil Formosa Plastics Nova Chem. Gemini HDPE Sasol Shell Shintech Sasol Shell Copyright 216 ICIS 18

19 North America Propylene-PP situation dramatically different Mt/y North America Propylene capacity additions , by company Mt/y North America PP new plants , by company Enterprise Formosa Plastics USA Formosa Plastics USA REXtac Copyright 216 ICIS 19

20 China Strong determination to reduce self-sufficiency MT PE % MT PP % production net import utilization rate production net import utilization rate Copyright 216 ICIS 2

21 Middle East Polymer production central supply increase continue but at a slower pace MT/Y Middle East Polyethylene Capacity 2-22, by Country MT/Y Middle East Polypropylene Capacity 2-22, by Country UAE Iran Israel Kuwait Qatar Suadi Arabia UAE Iran Israel Oman Suadi Arabia Copyright 216 ICIS 21

22 Other areas Projects close to developing markets, plus export-oriented KT New PE-PP plants cumulated capacity Egypt FSU India Other Asia HDPE LDPE HDPE+LLDPE LLDPE PP Copyright 216 ICIS 22

23 Click here to request a free demo 23

24 Global outlook 24

25 Demand outlook WHAT HOW Effective after-use of plastics Performance Preserve Optimize Efficiency Doing more with less De-coupling from fossil fuels? Environmental regulations (and costs) will grow Intelligent development of logistics Copyright 216 ICIS 25

26 Per Capita Consumption 215 (KG) Demand outlook Polyethylene demand growth potential USA Size = 215 demand 3 25 W.Europe Turkey 2 E.Europe China Copyright 216 ICIS 15 CIS Mex - SC Am. 1 Oth. A&P 5 Africa & ME India Projected Demand AAGR (%/year) 26

27 Per Capita Consumption 215 (KG) Demand outlook 45 Polypropylene demand growth potential 4 35 Size = 215 demand USA W.Europe E.Europe Turkey China Copyright 216 ICIS 1 Oth. A&P Mex - SC Am. CIS 5 India Africa & ME Projected Demand AAGR (%/year) 27

28 Regional deficits/surpluses in 22 North America Europe Former USSR LDPE LLDPE HDPE.1 PP LDPE LLDPE HDPE Africa 3.4 PP LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP Middle East North East Asia LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP 2.7 South & Central America LDPE LLDPE HDPE.8 PP LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP Asia Pacific LDPE LLDPE HDPE.4 PP LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP Copyright 216 ICIS 28

29 POLYETHYLENE 22 Worldwide Product Flow M tonnes.3.7 Former USSR.2.3 North America 5.8 Europe Middle East 15.7 North East Asia S&C America 2.4 Africa Asia & Pacific Copyright 216 ICIS 29

30 POLYPROPYLENE 22 Worldwide Product Flow.3 M tonnes.2 North America Europe 3.4 Former USSR Middle East North East Asia S&C America.4 Africa.8 Asia & Pacific 1.8 Copyright 216 ICIS 3

31 Thank you. Fabrizio Galiè Global Lead for Polymers Insight ICIS Consulting

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