STUDY OF DEVELOPMENT PLANNING EVALUATION ON THE UTILIZATION OF KALI BARU RIVER BASIN WITH RIBASIM DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

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1 International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 9, Issue 12, December 2018, pp , Article ID: IJCIET_09_12_098 Available online at ISSN Print: and ISSN Online: IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed STUDY OF DEVELOPMENT PLANNING EVALUATION ON THE UTILIZATION OF KALI BARU RIVER BASIN WITH RIBASIM DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM Lily Montarcih Limantara, Suwanto Marsudi and Apollinaris Didien Trimartini Department of Water Resources, Faculty of Engineering, University of Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia ABSTRACT This paper intends to evaluate the development planning of river basin utilization as the decision support system of water manager. There are two problems which are especially evaluated due to by making effort and without making effort conditions. The methodology consists of water ballance simulation approach for each condition that is analyzed by using DSS Ribasim software. Result shows that the development effort of 3 reservoirs are not significant if it is related with the increasing on the whole production yields of paddy and second crop in the river basin level. Evaluation result indicates as follow: water usage is in the range of 0.78% %; the increasing of water allocation usage is in the range of m 3 /s m 3 /s; the increasing of water allocation is in the range of 1.87 m 3 /ha 6.10 m 3 /ha; the increasing of maximum paddy production is 130 ton per-year and the maximum second crop production is 1,346 ton per-year. In addition, the increasing of income is in the range of Rp milyards Rp milyards per-year, the water deficit is less and less in the range of 0.06 millions m millions m 3 Key words: Decision Support System, effort conditions, DSS Ribasim Cite this Article: Lily Montarcih Limantara, Suwanto Marsudi and Apollinaris Didien Trimartini, Study Of Development Planning Evaluation on the Utilization of Kali Baru River Basin with Ribasim Decision Support System, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 9(12), 2018, pp INTRODUCTION The numerous investigations gave rise to different decision support systems for many kinds problem with an optimal prediction. However, the conventional research addressing these researches problem have generally employed the time series analysis techniques ((Kuo et.al editor@iaeme.com

2 Lily Montarcih Limantara, Suwanto Marsudi and Apollinaris Didien Trimartini 1998) (i.e., mixed auto regression moving average (ARMA)) (Kendall and Ord, 1990) as well as the multiple regression models. There is most only considering the quantitative factors like the technical indexes. Recently, the artificial intelligence techniques, like the artificial neural networks (ANNs) and the genetic algorithms (GAs) were applied in some area as mentioned above (Baba and Kazaki, 1992; Mahfoud and Mani, 1996). The development of decision support systems (DSS) requires an interdisciplinary research approach and involves the disciplines such as the computer science, decision theory, statistics, psychology, information and the knowledge engineering, and the organisational science (Eom, 1999; Eom and Farris, 1996). The numerous DSS developed for water resource management, the need to further develop decision-support tools in this field is widely recognized (Mysiak et.al. 2005). The growing knowledge of the links among the watershed components, the better understanding of the feedback among the processes operating at the different spatial and the temporal scales, the increased availability of the advanced watershed simulation modellings, and an improved understanding of the roles of risk and uncertainty in decision-making processes require the more sophisticated Decision Support System (National Research Council, 1999). Therefore, it has been given to the development of Decision Support System for river basin management. Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed for analyzing the water ballance, irrigation water demand, potency and actual agricultural production now as well as for the future. Every alternative of water resources development generally consists of the effort and the combined projects (INWRDAM, 2001; Pavoni et.al., 2001; Anonim, 2001). The effort that is carried out by the government of Banyuwangi Regency for supporting the water availibility of irrigation water supply is by planning the development of Singolatri Reservoir that supplies water in the Kajar Irrigation Area of 378 ha and with the effective volume of 126,242 m 3, Kedawung Small Dam with the effective volume of 36,480 m 3, and Lider Small Dam with the effective volume of 196,751 m 3 that supplies water for Kedawung Irrigation Area of 148 ha (Anonim, 2001b and Anonim, 2004). There are 8 (eight) units of simulation for evaluating the alternative result of water resources development planning as follow: 1) Simulation-1: without making effort condition that was named sa the Basic Case. It consists of the Existing Basic Condition (for system calibration) and the Future Basic Condition (for alternative comparison by developing the reservoirs); 2) Simulation-2 and so on is as the condition by making effort that is named as the condition-1 and so on such as consists of the simulation as follow: a) condition-1: by making effort to develop the Singolatri Reservoir; b) condition-2: by making effort to develop the Lider Reservoir; c) condition-3: by making effort to develop the Kedawung Reservoir; d) condition- 4: by making effort to develop the Singolatri and Lider Reservoir; e) condition-5: by making effort to develop the Singolatri and Kedawung Reservoir; f) condition-6: by making effort to develop the Lider and Kedawung Reservoir; g) condition-7: by making effor to develop the Singolatri, Lider, and Kedawung Reservoir. The difference condition of the simulation result in the future among without making effort in the development (the basic condition as the condition without making effort or mentioned as the condition-0) and the condition by making effort in the reservoirs development (the condition-1 until condition-7) are as the benefit of river basin development planning alternative which will be evaluated. The evaluation of benefit in Kali Baru river basin is including the value of water benefit (millions m 3 and m 3 /s), the water deficit (millions m 3 and m 3 /s), the water value that has not been used (millions m 3 and m 3 /s), the paddy and second crop harvest yields (ton), and the farmer income (millions rupiahs). However the evaluation result is as a decision support system for helping the water manager (the government of Banyuwangi Regency) in the development planning of Kali Baru river basin editor@iaeme.com

3 Study Of Development Planning Evaluation on the Utilization of Kali Baru River Basin with Ribasim Decision Support System The aim of this study is to evaluate the water benefit condition in the coming period without making effort (condition-0) due to the planning condition by making effort of reservoir development which included the reservoirs development palnning of Singolatri (condition-1), Lider (condition-2), Kedawung (condition-3), and the combination of 2 reservoirs (condition- 4 until condition-7) so it could be as a decision support system in the benefit development of water resources in Kali Baru river basin in the Banyuwangi Regency.. 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS 2.1. Decision Support Sistem (DSS)-Ribasim Decision Support System for river basin planning is as a software for helping development planning analysis of river basin on preparation and analysis stage (Hatmoko, 2007). DSS- Ribasim is one of the water allocation models which can be used on development planning stage of water resources as well as the operation for helping to make the strategic decision. The model has been developed by Delft Hydraulic from Netherland in Model of DSS-Ribasim version-6 consists of some components which is controlled by an interface that indicates the geographyc location. However, the model components are as follow (Wil, 2000; 2004; 2005a; 2005b; dan 2005c): a) DSS Shell is the preface program that integrates the other programs; b) Neffer is as the schematic network editor of water setting system that can be interactively used in setting the network and data input; c) Case Management Tool for making guide in implementing the simulation process so each condition of simulation can be well managed; d) Agwat is analysis model of irrigation water demand; e) Simproc is river basin simulation model for water allocation; f) ODS2XLS is as a graphically presented system of simulation result which is completed with export facility to Microsoft Excel Concept of a system for analyzing of river basin simulation development Model analysis of water supply system is carried out for building the relation among hydrology, facility, and socio-economic condition (Loucks et.al., 1981; Mangkoedihardjo, 2010; Samudro and Mangkoedihardjo, 2006). The quintessence of simulation is as a simulation of water supply condition by using a time series hydrological input. Time series represents stochastic variation of hydrological input that affects wet and dry condition. Then, some input points are necessary to be attended for representing the input total of river basin which has the possibility to evaluate water availability on the many relevant points 2.3. Application of standard on analysing river basin By knowing the uncertainty water supply, to fullfil the standard demand means that there is the supplying stability for fullfiling the standard. Figure 3 presents the concept illustration of water allocation for irrigation, plan of water distribution which has always to be under the available water that can be given with the certain dependability 2.4. Basic principle of simulation Analysis of water balance for each node in incoming time stage of simulation can be expressed in formula as follow: S t1 S t0 + c x (Q int t1 Q out t2) = 0 (1) Where: t0, t1 = stage of simulation time, 10 daily; St1 = end storage on time of t1 (million m 3 ); Qint1 = inflow of node on time stage of t1 (m 3 /s); Qoutt1 = outflow of node on time stage of t1 (m 3 /s); c = factor of conversion editor@iaeme.com

4 Lily Montarcih Limantara, Suwanto Marsudi and Apollinaris Didien Trimartini 2.5. Analysis of irrigation demand Irrigation water demand which is needed for guaranting the condition of optimum crop growth (water sufficiency for fullfiling crop evapotranspiration demand), water that is needed for land preparation and carrying out the other irrigation like irrigated rice area inundation that is flowed for controlling soil basa and manure using Agro-economic (potency of agricultural product) Net income per-actual harvest can be analyzed by using the formula as follow: NB = (Y x P) C (2) Where: NB = bruto profit (Rp/ha), input data DSS in unit of 1,000 Rp/ha; Y = actual harvest yield (ton/ha); input data DSS in unit of kg/ha; P = economy or harvest yield Price on farmer level in Rp/ha; C = actual production cost (Rp/ha); input data DSS in unit of 1000 Rp/kg Calibration of river basin water balance Based on experience, estimation of irrigation water using has the highest uncertainty. If it is united with the estimation of actual cropping pattern and management component, the calibration of available water balance and description of deviation will be realizationed that there is the uncertainty between the two sides of supply and demand. The aim of water balance model is to help identifying the right decision in planning and operational management. The most important function of model is to gave the consistant evaluation on option. When considering all of the accuracies by the decision which is made, the effect of uncertainty on water balance will be considered as well as the uncertainty of usage and evaluation on incoming option for using Analysis of sensitivity To determine the sensitivity of watershed system simulation with hydrological data and time atages, RIBASIM bargains the watershed simulation choices which are characterized by: 1) Dynamic simulation: a simulation of a certain period (number of years). This simulation is carried out as a continued/ historical time period. It presents that the storage of reservoir, the relation of reservoir on the beginning year of simulation are made until by the end of the year; and 2) Static simulation: after each hydrological year of initial condition is determined. The initial condition is illustrated by initial storage of reservoir. If an example of now condition is illustrated as initial condition, then the consequence of many decisions on water management are intended for incoming year of hydrology, the simulation can be presented Model of verification and result of accuracy The expression of garbage in garbage out has to be prevented for RIBASIM model. Therefore, a big attention is needed for the building of available input data that consists of the union of hydrological data that reflect the water availibility, union of water quantity demand data, and also the union of data that describe the physical and operational system. Model result of quality is not really depended on the quality of input data, but it is also depended on the manner to translate the actual condition into model system editor@iaeme.com

5 Study Of Development Planning Evaluation on the Utilization of Kali Baru River Basin with Ribasim Decision Support System 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1. Detail analysis of basic condition on 2008 Analysis is carried out due to the condition of water balance and water deficit, and the perspective about wholly water and water well. Then, to evaluate water allocation like on the deficit condition. Analysis is also carried out for the period of 1989 until 1997 (10 years), the period of 1998 until 2008 (10 years). It indicates that there is happened a trend of water availibility decreasing in the end of 10 years. Evaluation of mass balance as in the Figure 1a and 1b which the water balance on irrigation area which the water demand has been calculated, can be seen from the perspective of water using from the water well. Figure 1a Water balance for Kali Baru river basin on 2008: supply (well) (millions m3) Figure 1b Water balance for Kali Baru river basin on 2008: water using (millions m 3 ) 3.3. Decision Support System (DSS) DSS is used for determining the effect on the design strategy of utilization development on the region of Kali Baru river. The evaluation and simulation give the information from the design strategy performance of water resources utilization development and it is possible to fit this trategy for improving the performance editor@iaeme.com

6 Lily Montarcih Limantara, Suwanto Marsudi and Apollinaris Didien Trimartini 3.4. Evaluation on success level of water using Table 1 presents the success level of water using due to the success of time series in allocating water with the strategy of 3 single or combined reservoir that has not given the significant usage. The increasing is in the range of 0.78% until 0.95%. Tabel 1. Evaluation on success level of water using Irrigation area Success percentage of water allocation (%) DI Kajar DI KrDoro Kanan DI.Porolinggo DI.KrDoro Kiri DI Setail DI Kdawang DI-K-Setail Blambangan Average Evaluation of decreasing due to the deficit Table 2 shows the evaluation of decreasing due to the deficit with the strategy of 3 single or combined reservoirs that have not been significantly used. The increasing is in the range of m 3 /s until m 3 /s. Table 2 Evaluation of decreasing due to the deficit Name Deficit (m 3 /s) Kajar KrDoro Kanan Porolinggo KrDoro Kiri Setail Kdawang K-Setail Blambangan Total Evaluation on the increasing of harvest production Table 3 presents the increasing of harvest production with the strategy of 3 single or combined reservoirs that have not been significantly used. The increasing of paddy production is maximum in amount of 130 ton/year. However, the increasing of second crop production is maximum in amount of ton/year editor@iaeme.com

7 Study Of Development Planning Evaluation on the Utilization of Kali Baru River Basin with Ribasim Decision Support System Table 3 Evaluation of production increasing Harvest production (ton) Increasing (ton) Increasing (%) Condition second second paddy second crop paddy paddy crop crop 0 5,012,143 4,773, ,012,265 4,774, % 0.013% 2 5,012,144 4,774, % 0.013% 3 5,012,151 4,773, % 0.003% 4 5,012,265 4,774, , % 0.025% 5 5,012,273 4,774, % 0.015% 6 5,012,151 4,774, % 0.016% 7 5,012,273 4,774, , % 0.028% 3.7. Evaluation on the increasing of income Table 4 presents the increasing of farmer income with the strategy of 3 single or combined reservoirs that have not been significantly used. The iuncreasing is in the range of Milyards Rupiah until Milyards Rupiah. Table 4 Evaluation on the increasing of income Total of income Increasing Cond Item ition (millions (millions Ratio (%) Rupiah) Rp.) 0 Without making effort 24,146, % 1 Singolatri Reservoir 24,148, % 2, Lider Reservoir 24,147, % Kedawang Reservoir 24,146, % Singolatri + Lider 24,149, % 2, Singolatri + edawang 24,148, % 2, Lider + Kedawang 24,147, % 1, reservoirs 24,149, % 3, Evaluation of demanded storage volume Table 5 shows the storage demand for supplying irrigation area of Kali Baru river basin such as 287,37 millions m 3. However, the usage of 3 single or combined reservoirs have not significantly decrease the water deficit such as in the range of 0.06 millions m 3 until millions m editor@iaeme.com

8 Lily Montarcih Limantara, Suwanto Marsudi and Apollinaris Didien Trimartini Table 5 Evaluation of storage volume Node Deficit (millions m 3 ) condition- Name Index Di Kajar DI Kr Doro Kanan DI Porolinggo DI Kr Doro Kiri DI Setail DI Kdawung DI K-Setail DI Blambangan Total Reservoir operation pattern Figure 2 (a, b, c) until 4 (a, b, c) present the reservoir operation pattern of Singolatri, Lider, and Kedawung Reservoir. Based on the Figure 7 until 9, it indicates that there is no storage function which the inflow is the same as outflow, so this condition shows that the reservoirs have to be daily operated because the volume of storage will be spended in some hours and it will be recharged in some hours too. Reservoir is only be functioned as the regulator/ distributor, so there is needed the big storage. Figure 2a. Reservoir operation pattern of Singolatri (m 3 /s) Figure 2b. Reservoir operation pattern of Singolatri (m) editor@iaeme.com

9 Study Of Development Planning Evaluation on the Utilization of Kali Baru River Basin with Ribasim Decision Support System Figure 2c. Reservoir operation pattern of Singolatri (millions m 3 ). Figure 3a. Reservoir operation pattern of Lider (m 3 /s) Figure 3b. Reservoir operation pattern of Lider (m) Figure 3c. Reservoir operation pattern of Lider (millions m 3 ) editor@iaeme.com

10 Lily Montarcih Limantara, Suwanto Marsudi and Apollinaris Didien Trimartini Figure 4a. Reservoir operation pattern of Kedawang (m 3 /s) Figure 4b Reservoir operation pattern of Kedawang ( m). Figure 4c. Reservoir operation pattern of Kedawang (millions m 3 ) 4. CONCLUSION For condition-0 (base case), the success of wáter allocation in one year that is 72.25% with wáter déficit total of m 3 /s mainly it happened in the dry season such as August and September, and the average of wáter allocation is 21, m 3 /ha. By the irrigation área of 33,791 ha, it can produce the paddy in amount of 5, 012,143 ton and the second crop in amount of 4, 773,490 ton, and the total income is 24,146 trilyuns. To fullfil the irrigation wáter supply in Kali Baru river basin, it still needed the storage capacity in amount of millions m 3, however, the volume of river flow that has not been used in one year is 1, millions m 3, so the discharge in this watershed is hydrologically feasible. However, based on the regulation aspect there is less storage capacity for saving wáter in the rainy season and it can be used for supplying irrigation wáter demand in the dry season. Decision Support System in the usage development of Kali Baru river región is based on the agricultural área condition with the irrigation área of 33,791 ha, so Kali Baru river región editor@iaeme.com

11 Study Of Development Planning Evaluation on the Utilization of Kali Baru River Basin with Ribasim Decision Support System has the big potency as rice barn. By the condition of interbasin wáter system and there is regulator weir of the Karangdoro and Setail Weir, so the system has the big effect in supplying inter-watersheds where there is wáter deficit. So it is needed to increase the efficiency and operation pattern of the weir..based on the wáter demand which has not yet been supplied such as millions m 3 where as the potency of river flow that has not been functioned is 1, millions m 3, so hydrologically, the potency of wáter is enough for being used. By the strategy on the development of Singolatri reservoir which the volume capacity of thousands m 3, Lahor reservoir with the volume of thousands m 3, and Kedawung reservoir with the volume of thousands m 3, it means that the condition of reservoir is small, so the reservoir will be empty in some hours and it will be recharged again in some hours too so it is only as the distribution reservoir and there is not as the storage function. REFERENCES [1] Anonim (2001)a. Direktorat Jendral Pengairan, Departemen Pekerjaan Umum. Pemodelan Sistim Pendukung Keputusan (Decision Support System Modelling). [2] Anonim (2001)b. Direktorat Jendral Pengairan, Departemen Pekerjaan Umum. Pedoman Perencanaan Sumber Daya Air Wilayah Sungai (Guide of River Region Water Resources Design). [3] Anonim (2004). Laporan Akhir (Final Report), SID Waduk Singolatri, Embung Kedawang dan Embung Lider di Kabupaten Banyuwangi. Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah Pemerintah Kabupaten Banyuwangi, PT Wiratman & Associates. [4] Baba N. and Kozaki, M. (1992). An Intelligent Forecasting System of Stock Price Using Neural Networks, Proc. IJCN. [5] Eom S.B. (1999). Decision Support Systems Research: Current State and Trends. Industrial Management & Data Systems 5, 213e220. [6] Eom S.B. and Farris R.S. (1996). The Contributions of Organizational Science to the Development of Decision Support Systems Research Subspecialties. Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 47 (12): 941e952. [7] Hatmoko, W. (2007). Mengenal DSS (Introduction to DSS)-RIBASIM Decision Support System River Basin Simulation Model. [8] INWRDAM (2001). Decision Support System in the Field of Water Resources Planning and Management. Published on line in March 12. [9] Kendall S.M. and Ord K. (1990). Time Series, 3rd ed., Oxford University Press, New York. [10] Kuo R.J., Chen C.H., and Hwang Y.C. (2001). An Intelligent Stock Trading Decision Support System through Integration of Genetic Algorithm Based Fuzzy Neural Network and Artificial Neural Network. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 118: [11] Loucks D.P., Stedinger J.R., Haith D.A. (1981). Water Resources Systems Planning and Analysis. Prentice-Hall,Inc. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey [12] Mahfoud S. and Mani G. (1996). Financial Forecasting Using Genetic Algorithms. Appl. Arti_cial Intell. 10: 543{565). [13] Mangkoedihardjo, S. (2010). A new approach for the Surabaya sewerage and sanitation development programme Advances in Natural and Applied Sciences 4 (3): [14] Mysiak J., Giupponib C., and Resatoc P. (2005). Towards the Development of a Decision Support System for Water Resource Management. Environmental Modelling & Software, 20: 203e214 [15] National Research Council. (1999). New strategies for America s Watersheds. National Academy Press, Washington, DC editor@iaeme.com

12 Lily Montarcih Limantara, Suwanto Marsudi and Apollinaris Didien Trimartini [16] Pavoni B., Voinov A. and Zhavora N. (2001). Basin (Watershed) Approach as a Methodological Basis for Regional Decision Making and Management in the EX USSR. Published on line in March 12. [17] Samudro, G. and Mangkoedihardjo, S. (2006). Water equivalent method for city phytostructure of Indonesia. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 3(3), [18] Wil N.M. van der Krogt. (2000). Guidelines River Basin Simulation Model. Delft Hydraulics. [19] Wil N.M. van der Krogt. (2004). Ribasim version User Manual. Delft Hydraulics. [20] Wil N.M. van der Krogt. (2005) a. River Basin Simulation Model. Delft Hydraulics. [21] Wil N.M. van der Krogt. (2005) b. Ribasim version User Manual attachments Delft Hydraulics. [22] Wil N.M. van der Krogt. (2005)c. Ribasim version Technical Reference Manual. Delft Hydraulics editor@iaeme.com