THE BUCKINGHAMSHIRE DEBATE 2017 THE FUTURE FOR FARMING IN THE SOUTH EAST

Transcription

1 THE BUCKINGHAMSHIRE DEBATE 2017 THE FUTURE FOR FARMING IN THE SOUTH EAST

2 TIM BREITMEYER Welcome

3 SIR HENRY AUBREY-FLETCHER

4 RICHARD KING, Editor, ABC (Agricultural Budgeting and Costing) Book

5 (Index 1961=100) 1961 FARMING PRODUCTIVITY Total Factor Productivity 1961 to United Kingdom France Germany Netherlands United States Source: USDA / FAO / Andersons

6 Return on Capital - % 25 RETURN ON CAPITAL Average RoC and Range 2009/10 to 2014/ / / / / / / Cereals Dairy LFA Livestock Lowland Livestock -40 Source: DEFRA / Andersons

7 THE FUTURE Less support under an English Agricultural Policy half of current CAP funding? Paying only for public goods Post-Brexit trade arrangements currently unknowable

8 THE FUTURE But likely to be a period of upheaval and accelerated restructuring in UK agriculture but not immediately, so time to make businesses robust Use of technology to manage larger businesses better Whatever happens, UK farmers have many advantages; 65 million affluent consumers on their doorstep strong framework of law opportunity to set a new course good soils, good climate and good skills

9 KIT FRANKLIN Agricultural Engineering Lecturer at Harper Adams University and researcher of Future Farming systems

10 Future of Farming: Technology - an Enabler of Sustainable Production Agriculture

11 Precision Farming Precision Farming is a management concept - Managing natural variability. Doing the right thing, at the right time, in the right place and in the right way. It is not a technology but a way of thinking. Technology purely enables.

12 Precision Farming some success Auto (GPS) section control application Right Place 10-15% savings on inputs Improved crop performance >85% chemical savings with micro spot application

13 Field Robotics possible future Current Ag problems Limited time windows = ever larger machines Reduced rural labour = ever larger machines Compaction limiting yield cause large machines Lack of resolution for PF cause large machines Future plant scale robotic management 40hp scale farming A first step to field robotics

14 Field Robotics possible future Small robot solution Reduced compaction = increase yield? Increased resolution = improved PF = margin gain? Robots operate in swarms = same area covered Swarm requires management = job retained Future plant scale robotic management 40hp scale farming A first step to field robotics Horticulture/fresh produce Robotics Improve harvestable yeild and quality Labor/cost sustainability

15 Hands Free Hectare world first Project outline Automated machines growing the first arable crop remotely, without operators in the driving seats or agronomists on the ground

16 Hands Free Hectare world first Project objective 1. World first automated field growing cycle: drilling, husbandry/agronomy and harvest 2. Challenge perception of automation capability and inspire through media coverage 3. Utilising machinery and technologies that are available and affordable not bespoke and expensive: Commercial compact Ag machinery Open source automation 4. 1 year project. One chance!!

17 Hands Free Hectare partners Lead partners Project sponsors providing products and services

18 Hands Free Hectare progress

19 KATE HIBBERT Local Sourcing Manager, The Southern Co-Operative

20 Changing retail landscape

21 Changing retail trends multi channel shopping more prevalent as consumers seek both quality and value in their weekly shop. Premium meal solutions are showing strong growth hinting at a growing celebrate at home culture continuing trend towards more frequent shops convenience sector buoyant but highly competitive the cost base is increasing; the weak is leading to increases in ingredients & fuel. These costs are starting to feed into consumer prices

22 Changing retail trends discounters continue to take market share; Aldi & Lidl now control more than 12% of UK grocery sales, they are no longer solely associated with low priced brands increasing costs leading to lower margins & potentially higher RRP. Food inflation is on an upward trajectory. In the 12 weeks to February 26 th grocery inflation was at a 3 year high of 1.4% move towards UK sourcing

23 Retailers move towards UK sourcing post Brexit In a bid to move towards a more self sufficient Britain a number of retailers have recently signed up to Back Britain Lidl NFU s Fruit & Veg Pledge & Back British Farming The Co-op Group Backing British Morrisons UK sourcing drive, The Nation s Local Foodmakers

24 Potential future threats Continued weakening of the will further contribute to rising food costs* Rising fuel costs will put pressure on the supply chain* National living wage; retailers may be forced to pass the cost on to consumers of both their own increase and that of their supply chain* * it would appear that many suppliers, logistics and wholesalers are yet to fully pass their rising costs on to consumers. It is only a matter of time given the added margin pressure associated with NLW

25 Potential future threats Brexit trade negotiations; trade deals could have a profound impact, the referendum has not yet delivered certainty for shoppers Employment within the retail sector is not considered to be an issue. EU nationals are not seen as a direct labour source for retailing, the effect is more likely to be felt at wholesaler / farming level. If so, this would impact RRP as increased costs are absorbed and passed on.

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27 DR ALASTAIR LEAKE Director of Policy, Game & Wildlife Conservation Trust

28 What is the future for farming in the South East Demand for food and productivity Nature and wildlife Soil productivity and condition Climatic challenges Land-use priorities

29 World Population 500 BC 2025 AD

30 Population of England m Year

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32 Arable land per capita

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34 UK Bird Populations

35 Songbird Abundance Index UK Wheat Production Vs Songbird Abundance National breeding birds National wheat yields Wheat Yield t/ha

36 Songbird Abundance Index UK Wheat Production Vs Songbird Abundance 245 GWCT wheat yields 10 National breeding birds GWCT breeding birds National wheat yields Wheat Yield t/ha

37 Importance of SOIL Agricultural production from UK soils is worth 5.3 billion per annum (National Stats, 2012) Soil degradation costs up to 1.4 billion per annum (Defra, 2011)

38 Soil erosion & degradation

39 Soil compaction X

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42 Rewilding

43 CHRISTOPHER PRICE Director Policy and Advice, CLA

44 The Future for Farming Next generation issues/succession planning Attracting new people into farming Share farming and other opportunities

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46 QUESTIONS

47 THANK YOU