Analysis of the Initiative for the Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change

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1 Policy Brief Analysis of the Initiative for the Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change Key messages The high level initiative for the Adaptation of African Agriculture (AAA) to Climate Change was launched in 2016 by the Moroccan presidency in advance of the COP 22, the twenty second Conference of the Parties within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The initiative is seeking to help secure finance for adaptation and promote innovative solutions. These solutions were set out in a White Paper published by the AAA in late Agri-TAF has been asked to assess whether the AAA initiative, and the solutions in the white paper, could form the basis for a strategy and investment plan for agriculture in Rwanda. AAA Climate Finance. In terms of securing climate finance, the AAA initiative has had a low impact. It did not receive any pledges of financial support at the COP22 in Marrakech and there is no major funder, agreement or process to source funds or leverage finance going forward. Its broader role in advocacy for climate finance is also unclear, as the initiative now seems to be operating at a low level of activity with no recent announcements. AAA Solutions. The AAA White Paper includes 70 options under five thematic areas. An analysis finds that these are a long wish-list of options loosely grouped together: they are fragmented, vary in applicability, include many agricultural development options (rather than climate smart agriculture options) and there is little strategic oversight. The analysis has mapped the list of AAA solutions to Rwanda. This finds that the country is already implementing many of these initiatives, though there are gaps. The AAA list also omits numerous climate smart agriculture options (including ones that Rwanda is implementing). Given the review findings, the first recommendation is that while the AAA solutions are a useful starting point, they are not appropriate for forming the basis of a future climate smart investment plan. Instead the focus should be to build a Rwandan-specific set of interventions. As the AAA initiative is unlikely to deliver additional climate finance, the study has looked at alternative sources that could fund this Rwanda specific investment plan. The analysis has found there is already >$100 million of external finance supporting AAA options (from the IFIs and DPs). Looking forward, there is a large volume of potential climate finance available for Rwanda in the AAA investment areas, with > $200 million of possible finance identified (excluding the sector support and PfR programme, which would increase this further). A second recommendation is that it would be useful to build a road map for resource mobilisation around climate finance and look at the division of labour from different sources. Overall, the finding is that the AAA initiative / solutions (alone) are not appropriate for developing a climate smart investment plan for Rwanda. However, it is possible to build on the initiative especially with the emerging finance above - and develop such a plan. The final recommendation is that the development of this plan should be aligned to the emerging PSTAIV and be implemented through the mainstreaming of climate and environment.

2 Background The high-level initiative for the Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate Change (AAA) for Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change and Food Insecurity was launched in 2016 by the Moroccan presidency in advance of COP22 - the 22 nd Conference of the Parties within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). The initiative was put forward by a community of scientists and a coalition of 28 African countries, including Rwanda, as well as the UNFCCC and the FAO i. The objective of the initiative ii is to place the adaptation of African Agriculture at the heart of the climate debates and negotiations, and to attract a substantial share of climate funds. It also aims to contribute to the roll-out of specific agricultural projects and solutions (to climate change). The initiative is built around two major pillars: Advocacy to secure financing for agricultural adaptation projects in African countries; Promotion of innovative solutions to respond to Africa s top priority needs. As part of the AAA initiative, a White Paper was produced iii in advance of the Morocco COP (COP22) that set out possible adaptation solutions. The initiative was promoted at high level meetings at the COP in November Against this background, Agri-TAF has been asked to assess whether the AAA initiative and the options in the AAA White Paper - could form the basis for a strategy and investment plan for the agriculture sector in Rwanda. This paper summarises the review and recommendations. AAA Progress in Advocacy to secure climate finance The AAA initiative was identified as one of the priorities of the Moroccan presidency for COP22. However, in terms of securing climate finance, the AAA initiative has had a low impact. It did not achieve any pledges of support for funding at the COP22 in Marrakech (November 2016) iv and there have been no major announcements on funding subsequently. At the current time, there are therefore no funds announced (from an International Finance Institution (IFI), Multi-Lateral Agency or Development Partner (DP)) to take the initiative forward. It is therefore considered unlikely the initiative will secure funds for a major new AAA climate investment programme. The broader role of the AAA initiative in terms of advocacy for climate finance also remains unclear. There is no information (or process) for how the initiative will facilitate access to finance from public sources or leveraging from the private sector. Finally, the AAA initiative webpage has not been updated since November 2016 and no reply was given to a request (from Agri-TAF) for an update on progress from the AAA secretariat. While it may be that activity is happening behind the scenes, it does seem the initiative has lost momentum. Promotion of innovative solutions (AAA white paper) The AAA White Paper produced a list of priorities (solutions) for adaptation, grouped into themes: I Soil Management i. Soil Fertility and Crop Fertilisation ii. Fruit Farming, Rangeland Management, and Agroforestry iii. Agro-Ecological Innovations and Carbon Sequestration II. Agricultural-Water Control III. Climate-Risk Management For each theme, the White Paper reports on the current state of affairs, lists the solutions to be promoted and reviews existing initiatives. The high-level solutions recommended for each theme are presented below. The Paper provides individual options in each area, and in total, ~ 70 individual solutions are listed across the five areas (see Annex 1).

3 Theme High level Solutions Soil Fertility and Crop Fertilisation Diagnosis approaches and soil-fertility information systems, with mapping, information systems and observatories. Technical responses including systems management and diversification of nutrient sources. Teaching and support. Fruit Farming, Rangeland Agroforestry. Management, and Arboriculture cropping systems. Agroforestry Pastoral systems. Forest systems. Agro-Ecological Innovations Conservation-oriented agriculture. and Carbon Sequestration Dissemination of good agricultural practices and knowledge. Agricultural-Water Control Reinforce water-potential mobilisation. Proactively develop complementary irrigation. Strengthen the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). Modernise and promote water-efficient and more productive irrigation. Proactively support irrigation development through capacity building. Climate-Risk Management Development and improvement of observation and forecasting systems Development of the agricultural insurance. Development of training programs. A detailed analysis of the individual options has been made. The findings are that: The individual options are effectively a long wish-list of options, loosely grouped together into themes. This can be explained by the process by which the solutions were identified, which was through a working symposium rather than an evidence based analysis; The individual options include some generic options (e.g. agroforestry) as well as highly specific options (e.g. develop blending units for the production of fertilisers suited to local conditions), i.e. they vary in scale and applicability; Many of the options are agricultural development options (e.g. develop a fertiliser market) rather than adaptation or climate smart options; There are major thematic areas simply missing from the list. This includes consideration of livestock, as well as pests and disease/integrated pest management; Many important adaptation options are missing including ones that are already being implemented in Rwanda, such as soil conservation or research into resilient crops; Obvious linkages, synergies and conflicts between options are not discussed, i.e. the links between irrigation and integrated water resource management, the recommendation to advance organic fertiliser at the same time as inorganic fertiliser use, etc. There is no strategic analysis and thus no coherent or overarching strategy - on how these options should be implemented, i.e. how to ensure they deliver AAA objectives. We therefore advise caution in over-interpreting the solutions presented in the AAA paper, and highlight they are not necessarily applicable to Rwanda. The recommendation is therefore to use the list of AAA solutions as the starting point, but build a Rwandan-specific set of options that reflect solutions and priorities for Rwanda. Mapping and Analysis of AAA Solutions in Rwanda Following the analysis above, Agri-TAF has mapped the AAA solutions to the Rwanda context, identifying their relevance (e.g. in national policy). It has considered: If there are existing planned interventions or projects that match AAA solutions; If there are obvious gaps from the AAA solutions, and whether these are applicable for Rwanda; If there are areas of climate smart agriculture that are missing from the AAA.

4 Initial mapping of the AAA initiatives to Rwanda Theme In plans or implemented AAA Gaps in Rwanda Soil Fertility Diagnosis Soil and Crop ASIPII 1.1 Decision support tool for soil erosion observatory Fertilisation monitoring / control. Organic Digitised soil maps (RAB). agriculture USAID Agriculture Land Information System (ALIS). Treat and ASIPII Management Information Systems reuse waste Information systems (and Agri-TAF support) water. Fruit Farming, Rangeland Management, and Agroforestry Agro- Ecological Innovations and Carbon Sequestration Technical ASIP II 1.4 Inputs to Improve Soil Fertility and Management: develop fertiliser market; improve acid and saline/sodic soils. Lime Distribution: (new activity after PSTAIII was written) Teaching and support ASIPII 1.1 fertiliser recommendations for types of soils and crops. ASIPII 3.7 agricultural finance. ASIPII 1.4. incentive systems aiming to promote the use of smart subsidies for fertilisers Agroforestry. Existing agroforestry projects on the ground in Rwanda (VI agroforestry, IUCN, MINECOFIN, etc.). FAO developing GoR strategic agroforestry plan. ASIPII plan for adapted agroforestry tree species. Forestry: Existing large-scale forestry programmes, though the existing PAREF support is ending. Proposed Forest Investment Programme from the World Bank. National parks are already established. ASIP II 3.6. Development of Priority Value Chains: Apiculture (NFTP) Conservation agriculture Mulching and intercropping practised, but explicitly not in ASIP II. Focus on mechanised tillage (ASIP II 1.3) contradictory to AAA recommendation for low mechanised tillage. Compost production: (new activity after PSTAIII was written) Dissemination of good practice. Suburban agroforestry (Integrated management of Pastoral systems but not applicable for Rwanda.) Conservation agriculture Mulching/ Intercropping Bio-intensive microagriculture Missing from the AAA Soil conservation and erosion control (progressive and bench terracing) Linkages with livestock Post-harvest losses Pests and disease (climate) Livestock development in general Soil conservation; Livestock development. Climate resilient varieties / crop diversification Agricultural- Water Control Climate-Risk Management Irrigation ASIPII 1.2 plans for developing small-scale, hillside and marshland irrigation. Implementation of irrigation with LWH Irrigation project; Buffet Foundation project on irrigation. Irrigation capacity building (e.g. number of technicians, training) IWRM Integrated Water Resource Initiative in MINIRENA, and a new Embassy of Netherlands Water for Growth Programme Observation and forecasting / training New monitoring (FONERWA funding for Rwanda Meteoroly Agency) USAID climate services project for agriculture ((CCAFS with RAB, MINAGRI and Meteo) Some earth observation (Remote Sensing Space, mapping, GIS, GPS and geomatics applications) Insurance Index based insurance (AFR) and national insurance group Large scale irrigation More modern and higher water efficiency Strengthened Earth observation institutions and capacity Water conservation. Climate risk mapping. (analysis of crops, cash crops, livestock and pest and disease)

5 It is worth highlighting that even when an investment areas is outlined in the ASIPII, this does not mean it will have been fully implemented: the table above is therefore more positive than the current situation. The recent mid-term review identifies a number of areas where progress against objectives is slower than anticipated. Nevertheless, the review finds that overall, there is a positive coverage of AAA solutions. Rwanda is already prioritising many of the AAA initiatives. This has been possible due to the prioritisation in the ASIP2 and through support from external assistance. An analysis of the current climate finance in Rwanda shows there is > $100 million of external finance supporting these initiatives already (in current projects). Not surprisingly, there are some gaps, i.e. in areas where the AAA proposes solutions that are not yet implemented in Rwanda. These may reflect the low priority in Rwanda, for example, conservation agriculture is recommended in the AAA, but is not a focus in Rwanda. In other words, filling the gaps is not necessarily a priority: the key recommendation - as above - is to develop a Rwandan specific investment plan. It is noted that some of the AAA initiatives are cross-cutting, and thus include options that lie within MINIRENA (e.g. Integrated Water Resource Management, Forestry) as well as options that already involve several ministries (e.g. agroforestry). This is not a barrier to implementation, but does mean delivery of the AAA initiatives will involve cross-ministry co-operation. Finally, there are some issues about whether the interventions in the agriculture sector in Rwanda fully align to the AAA initiatives and the previous Strategic Environment Assessment of the agriculture sector. To expand: Within the ASIPII, environmental mainstreaming is in a separate sub-component with a separate budget line. This has, ironically, meant that environment and climate issues have been somewhat side-lined, rather than mainstreamed into the core programming and expenditure, especially as the mainstreaming budget allocation is low. While water management and irrigation is captured under ASIP II SP 1.2, this has not included an integrated water resource management approach or the water efficiency recommendations (recommended in both the SEA and the AAA). The main focus in the ASIPII on soil fertility has been on terracing and increasing the use of inorganic fertilisers, rather than through the Sustainable Intensification approaches prioritised in the Green Growth and Climate Resilient Strategy (GGCRS). The focus on crop intensification has the potential concentration to climate risks. There are issues of the cost-effectiveness of certain resource allocations in the ASIPII. As highlighted in the Agri-TAF environment mainstreaming plan, the high resource allocations to terracing may not be as effective as other climate smart agriculture investments (e.g. for agroforestry or other soil conservation measures). Analysis of climate finance available for AAA initiatives in Rwanda As the AAA initiative is unlikely to deliver climate finance, this paper has looked at alternative sources that could fund a Rwanda specific investment plan. Agri-TAF has been tracking the various projects / programmes and funding from multi-lateral (International Finance Institutions and organisations) and bi-lateral sources (development partners) that are already providing climate related finance to the sector. As highlighted above, this analysis has found there is already >$100 million of external finance supporting AAA options (from the IFIs and DPs). Looking forward, there is a large volume of planned IFI and DP climate finance for Rwanda in the AAA investment areas, with > $200 million of possible finance identified over the next sector planning period. This excludes the contribution of the PfR and sector support, which will include relevant areas and increase this funding level higher. The list of identified areas is shown in the Table below.

6 Sources of climate finance for a Rwanda investment plan for AAA initiatives by theme Project Funder Value Status Notes General Mainstreaming Climate Smart Planning and Implementation into Agricultural Development Green Climate Fund $30 million Concept note submitted to GCF. Will go to PPF in MINAGRI would be executing entity, with finance from GCF via New Transformation of Agriculture Sector Programfor-Results (PforR) Project for Rwanda World Bank IDA 18 Loan May. Plan to finalise for Nov. New PfR DFID As above Improving Market Systems for Agriculture in Rwanda (IMSAR) DFID $ 7 million service contract About to start MINIRENA (NIE) Possible climate smart investment plan being considered. IDA 18 focus on addressing resilience. External service provider. Will include climate mainstreaming component (~25%) Agri-TAF DFID $5 million In implementation Includes components on climate and environment mainstreaming, plus MIS Climate mainstreaming in tea and coffee pilot Mainstreaming climate smart approaches into crop livestock intensification EU programme of support to agriculture Feed the Future Rwanda Sustainable Food, Agriculture, and Nutrition Rwanda Gender, Climate Change and Agriculture Support Programme (GCCASP) Rwanda Dairy Development Project (RDDP) Soil Fertility Agriculture Land Information System (ALIS) Forestry/agroforestry Integrated project in Gicumbi Forest Investment Programme Water Pilot Programme on Climate Resilience Water for Growth Agricultural development in Rwanda Climate risk management Climate services for agriculture Climate-Resilient Post-Harvest and Agribusiness Support Project (PASP) AFR includes index based insurance FONERWA $2.5 million FONERWA ~$2 4 million Proposal submitted EU USAID ~ 200 million ~$30 million service contract In implementation In implementation About to be contracted to service provider MINAGRI RAB with SACR. Will also seek funds for NAMA to increase project funding Will include some mainstreaming elements at local level External service provider NEPAD $12-14 million Coordinated by the Ministry of Gender and Family Promotion and the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD). IFAD USAID Green Climate Fund World Bank, through GCF application World Bank, through GCF application Embassy of the Netherlands Howard G. Buffet Foundation (HGBF) ~ $65 million loan About to start In Implementation $40 million Proposal will be submitted April 2017 ~$25 million ~$50 million ~ 35 million Up to $500 million Grant for design phase approved. Scoping work to start in May In implementation In implementation Includes climate smart production intensification component MINIRENA implementing. Includes agroforestry and forestry, as well as tea and coffee MINIRENA Likely to focus on water, but will have agriculture linkages Implementing catchment management Support for irrigation and agricultural training institute USAID $4 million In implementation CCAFS, working with MINAGRI, RAB and Meteo. IFAD Includes $7 In implementation Includes weather million from information form farmers Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme DFID Grant In implementation Run by Access to Finance Rwanda.

7 Looking at the list, a further recommendation is added. This is to develop a MINAGRI road map for climate and environment resource mobilisation, which draws together the potential investments and looks at the coverage across areas. An important issue here will be to avoid duplication among funding partners and to ensure gaps are filled. One way to do this would be through a division of labour between funding partners, i.e. to identify which partners might support different areas (e.g. climate services, livestock, crop research, extension, etc.) and to ensure there is greater harmonisation. Climate investment and mainstreaming in Rwanda The key question being addressed in this rapid assessment is whether the AAA initiative and the options in the AAA White Paper - could form the basis for a strategy and investment plan for making the agriculture sector in Rwanda climate smart. While there are positive aspects to the initiative, and it forms a useful reference point, the overall conclusion is that it would not be appropriate for this role. This is because: It does not adequately target climate and environmental risks; It does not have sufficient context of the Rwanda situation; It omits many key climate smart agriculture options (and even key sectors); It does not set out the process or method for developing such a plan. However, it is possible to build on the initiative especially with the emerging finance outlined above - and develop such a plan. The final recommendation is that the development of this plan would best be taken forward if this was aligned to the emerging PSTAIV and was implemented through the mainstreaming of climate and environment. Following from a recent MINAGRI cluster group meeting (28/3/17) on Environment and Climate Change, a concept note is being produced that will outline how this plan could be taken forward: an outline is summarised in the box below. Box: A possible climate smart and environment investment plan for agriculture The key steps in developing a climate smart and environment investment plan for PSTA IV would be to: Identify the emerging focus areas of the PSTAIV (and also the new Vision 2050); Identify climate and environmental risks (and opportunities) to agriculture in general and to the PSTAIV in particular - and prioritise these; Assesses the full range of possible responses (AAA solutions and other); Prioritise these responses; Build an investment plan of climate smart components and costs. The investment plan would align to the emerging sources of finance outlined earlier, and seek to align initiatives to help deliver the marginal climate finance to fund mainstreaming. Should the MINAGRI GCF application be successful, this would provide most of the funding needed (though even without this initiative, sufficient funds are identified). It is stressed that this mainstreaming initiative should be taken forward as part of the core analysis, within the development of each programmatic action, and not side-lined as with PSTAIII. This would allow the initiative to help deliver the GGCRS programme of action for agriculture and take on board the recommendations of the 2011 Strategy Environmental Assessment.

8 Annex: Solutions listed by the AAA White Paper (AAA, 2016) Soil Fertility and Crop Fertilisation Diagnosis approaches Soil-fertility information systems soil mapping and digital compilation Information systems for the agricultural use of land Soil-fertility and crop-fertilisation observatories Technical responses Systems management Provide better nitrogen availability in soils by adopting rotations based on food and forage legumes Recommendations on fertilisers for protected crops and crops subject to localised irrigation: use of fertigation (injection of fertilisers in irrigation water) and implement hydroponics (soil-less crops in neutral substrates); Adapt soil-fertility and crops-fertilising management to specific production systems Develop organic agriculture Direct application of phosphate rocks without transformation into fertiliser on acid soils Improve acid and saline/sodic soils Rehabilitate the land Diversification of nutrient sources Recover organic waste for agricultural use and manage crops residues Treat and reuse waste water (solid-waste source) and agricultural by-products to produce compost Develop a fertilisers market due to the improvement of procurement and distribution systems Develop blending units for the production of fertilisers suited to local conditions Teaching and support Expert systems with tools to help in the decision-making regarding recommendations for fertilising crops Agricultural counsel for the simplification and dissemination of good practices of integrated soil fertility management with participatory approach Provision of fertiliser equipment via farmers organisations Facilitated access to loans, use of smaller packaging requiring a smaller investment for farmers Development of incentive systems aiming to promote the use of fertilisers ( smart subsidies ) Implementation of policies to encourage and reinforce research and development and support production price Fruit Farming, Rangeland Management, and Agroforestry Agroforestry and Arboriculture cropping systems Agroforestry includes arboriculture Improvement of technical coordination Promotion of suburban agroforestry Domestication of native species introduction of economic-interest species Integrate management of Pastoral systems Development of rangelands and regulation of transhumance flows Securing of pastoral zones as well as strategic pastoral areas Elaboration/implementation of rangeland development/ rehabilitation protocols Establishment of water points for livestock watering, the Diffusion of improved genotypes in regions with favourable intensification conditions, preservation of native species and nutrition improvement Establishment of professional organisations for breeders Integrated management of Forests Improvement of the management of forest landscapes and gain-sharing introduction of large-scale afforestation/reforestation programmes Establishment of national forest parks for carbon storage and safeguarding diversity Launch of sustainable natural-forest developments Increase of reforestation/planting efforts Domestication of native species and the introduction of economic interest species Promotion of non-timber products in forest and pastoral spaces Establishment and improvement of community business management Agro-ecological innovations Implement a conservation-oriented agricultural model based Minimal use of mechanised tillage Permanent coverage of soil by organic, carbon-rich mulch Crop rotations and associations Introduce intercropping Develop composting, crop-residue incorporation, and convert organic waste into compost Develop bio-intensive micro-agriculture

9 Fallowing Develop oases sustainably Develop agro-pastoral zones sustainably Disseminate good agricultural practices and knowledge by researchers and professionals Agricultural-Water Control Reinforce water-potential mobilisation: Rehabilitate existing structures to optimise their capacity Build new structural facilities Proactively develop complementary irrigation between (a) large-scale irrigation based on the development of great plains, (b) lowland and flood-recession agriculture, (c) small-scale rural irrigation, and (d) individual irrigation; Continue to strengthen the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) approach, particularly for crossborder water management Modernise and promote more water-efficient and more productive irrigation and production systems Proactively support irrigation development through capacity building Strengthening regulatory and institutional provisions, training, R&D, and innovation Climate-Risk Management Development and improvement of observation and forecasting systems Improvement of weather and climate observation network Improvement of weather forecasting systems Development of earth observation institutions (from Remote Sensing Space, mapping, GIS, GPS and other geomatics applications) Development of the agricultural insurance (especially index based) Development of training programs i The initiative is aligned with the African Adaptation Initiative ("AAI") fostered by the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment. ii iii AAA (2016). Initiative for the adaptation of African agriculture to climate change: Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change and Food Insecurity. White Paper. iv