January 2015 FAPRI Baseline for AFPC Representative Farms

Transcription

1 January 2015 FAPRI Baseline for AFPC Representative Farms James W. Richardson Regents Professor, Senior Faculty Fellow, Co-Director Agricultural and Food Policy Center

2 AFPC Faculty Dr. Joe Outlaw, Co-Director and Professor Dr. Henry Bryant, Associate Professor Dr. George Knapek, Program Manager Dr. David Anderson, Professor Dr. Steven Klose, Professor Dr. Aleksandre Maisashvili, Assistant Professor Mr. Marc Raulston, Research Associate Mr. Brian Herbst, Research Associate Ms. Myriah Johnson, Research Associate Mr. David Enstes, Research Associate

3 Data and Methods Representative Farms - Focus Groups of Top Producers in Major Production Regions - Primary Data Whole farm simulation model (FLIPSIM) FAPRI Baseline used in farm simulation model Project the economic outlook for representative farms across the country study period for the analysis

4 Definition of Financial Position Good Less than 25% chance of a negative ending cash balance and less than 25% chance of losing real net worth Marginal A 25-50% chance of a negative ending cash balance and a 25 50% chance of losing real net worth Poor Greater than 50% chance of a negative ending cash balance and a greater than 50% chance of losing real net worth

5 Location of AFPC Representative Feedgrain Farms ND IA NE MON MOC IN TXNP TXP TN SC NCS TXH LA TXW TXU

6 Economic Viability of Representative Feedgrain Farms, January 2015 Baseline Farm Name Overall Ranking P(Negative Ending Cash) P(Real Net Worth Declines) 13/6/ IA G IA G NEG NEG NDG NDG ING ING MOCG MOCG MONG LAG LANG TNG TNG NCSP SCG TXNP TXNP TXPG TXHG TXWG TXUG

7 Economic Viability of Representative Feedgrain Farms, January 2015 Baseline

8 Economic Viability of Representative Feedgrain Farms, January 2015 Baseline

9 Economic Viability of Representative Feedgrain Farms, January 2015 Baseline

10 Economic Viability of Representative Feedgrain Farms, January 2015 Baseline Over half of farms remain in good overall financial condition, despite one of worst outlooks in 5 years Farms that were able to build cash during recent high price period are better able to survive projected downturn

11 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Feedgrain Farms, FAPRI Baselines

12 Location of AFPC Representative Wheat Farms WA WAA OR MT CO KSN KSC

13 Economic Viability of Representative Wheat Farms, January 2015 Baseline Farm Name Overall Ranking P(Negative Ending Cash) P(Real Net Worth Declines) 5/4/ WAW WAW WAAW MTW ORW KSCW KSCW KSNW KSNW COW COW

14 Economic Viability of Representative Wheat Farms, January 2015 Baseline Continues theme from 2014 baseline; two worst outlooks for wheat in last 5 years Relatively poor price outlook as compared to recent years is driving force for declining positions Most farms (9 of 11) still have very low chances of losing equity

15 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Wheat Farms, FAPRI Baselines

16 Location of AFPC Representative Cotton Farms TXE TXSP TXRP AR TN AL GA SC NCN NCC TXM TXCB TXV

17 Economic Viability of Representative Cotton Farms, January 2015 Baseline Farm Name Overall Ranking P(Negative Ending Cash) P(Real Net Worth Declines) 4/3/ TXSP TXSP TXEC TXRP TXMC TXCB TXCB TXVC ARNC TNC TNC ALC GAC SCC NCC NCNP

18 Economic Viability of Representative Cotton Farms, January 2015 Baseline Weighted heavily toward marginal and poor classification (75% of farms) Poor yields, primarily drought related, coupled with declining price are major contributing factors for many farms in marginalpoor condition Cotton acres seem to be shifting to other crops in many areas where other options exist

19 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Cotton Farms, FAPRI Baselines

20 Location of AFPC Representative Rice Farms CA ARH ARW ARS ARM TXTXE TXB LAS

21 Economic Viability of Representative Rice Farms, January 2015 Baseline Farm Name Overall Ranking P(Negative Ending Cash) P(Real Net Worth Declines) 6/0/ CAR CAR CABR CACR TXR TXR TXBR TXER LASR ARMR ARSR ARWR ARHR

22 Economic Viability of Representative Rice Farms, January 2015 Baseline Almost half split between good and poor condition; no middleground Similar outlook to a year ago, with exception of marginal farms shifting to poor category Some rice farms in AR diversifying crop mix; lack of water in TX continues to be an issue

23 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Rice Farms, FAPRI Baselines

24 Location of AFPC Representative Dairies WA VT ID WI NY NV CA MO TXN TXE TXC FLN FLS

25 Economic Viability of Representative Dairies, January 2015 Baseline Farm Name Overall Ranking P(Negative Ending Cash) P(Real Net Worth Declines) 15/2/ CAD WAD WAD IDD NVD TXND TXCD TXED WID WID NYWD NYWD VTD VTD MOGD MOGD FLND FLSD

26 Economic Viability of Representative Dairies, January 2015 Baseline Over 80% of the dairies are classified as good Only 3 dairies with over 25% chance of cash flow stress Even fewer are expected to struggle with equity position over projection period

27 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Dairies, FAPRI Baselines

28 Location of AFPC Representative Ranches MT WY SD NV CO NM MO TXR TX FL

29 Economic Viability of Representative Ranches, January 2015 Baseline Farm Name Overall Ranking P(Negative Ending Cash) P(Real Net Worth Declines) 8/1/ NVB MTB WYB COB NMB SDB MOB TXRB TXSB FLB

30 Economic Viability of Representative Ranches, January 2015 Baseline Ranches in marginal and poor condition have experienced large reduction in herd size, primarily due to drought conditions The plan for these ranches is to build cow numbers as range conditions hopefully improve

31 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Ranches, FAPRI Baselines

32 Questions? James W. Richardson / Joe L. Outlaw Agricultural and Food Policy Center TAMU Dept. of Agricultural Economics (979) jwrichardson@tamu.edu joutlaw@tamu.edu

33 Decision Aid Use Oct-March

34 Decision Aid Use Feb-March

35 Help Desk Highlights Answered 1,496 calls and s from September 25, 2014 to February 28, The average length of time answering questions is 10 minutes. Have received calls and s from 40 of the 50 states. Only states not to call are: Hawaii, Nevada, Utah, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

36 What are People Asking As you can imagine, what people ask us has a wide range. From I can t find the decision aid on the web To can you explain the statistical calculations methodology behind the decision aid

37 What are People Asking Most Frequently asked questions include Login issues (including forgotten passwords) Help understanding risk-based simulation General questions about how to enter data Irrigated versus dryland crops Base acres, but no recent planted history Planted the crop recently, but have no base acres Where to find the information they need to enter into the decision aid Can you go through the result with me Which sometimes leads to what should I do? (which we don t answer)

38 Summary We have had a diverse group of users call and A few have even offered suggestions We thought some of the suggestions were such good ideas that we implemented them into the decision aid. The majority seem very happy with the help they receive and having the support available when needed