A Monthly Newsletter on Food Security and Vulnerability in Uganda

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1 A Monthly Newsletter on Food Security and Summary An uncertain calm prevails in Katakwi District, where about 88,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) live in protected settlements. Only sporadic attacks have been reported with no loss of life over the past two months. The Government has deployed armed personnel in the district to provide security and deter livestock rustling by Karimojong raiders. In late October, the President informed Katakwi residents of the Government s response and mitigation activities, such as disarmament of the Karimojong that is due before the end of this year. Many households in Kapelebyong and Usuk Counties remain moderately food insecure with limited access to food. The IDPs require more assistance, which has not been consistent. Relative calm has been experienced in Bundibugyo, Gulu and Kitgum Districts since early 2001, restoring near normalcy in these districts that have endured rebel insurgency over the past several years. The peace has enabled displaced households to access cultivable land and grow crops, which benefited from conducive growing conditions this year. This has resulted in a good harvest and improved household stocks and food security, augmenting relief assistance. Humanitarian agencies have provided assistance to the IDPs, including food aid by World Food Programme. The supply of crops from the first season (March to July) continues to be good in many districts of Uganda. Harvest of early-planted beans has also started, enabling households to replenish their stocks and ensure adequate access to food. District officials have expressed concern for high moisture levels and poor storage that are likely to cause damage to stored grain, leading to crop losses. No significant damage has been observed yet. National food security projections are good. Optimal growing conditions being experienced in most districts of Uganda support good crop growth. Most maize in eastern and central districts is about to tassel, while beans are flowering. A normal harvest is projected for most of the country, except Katakwi District, where only a few households have been able to cultivate. OXFAM GB in Uganda and the Lutheran World Federation report an average sorghum harvest in Kotido, Moroto, and Nakapiripirit Districts this year, enabling households to replenish and improve their food reserves. The good harvest has encouraged the Karimojong to commemorate cultural rites, previously foregone due to low food stocks. The consumption of large amounts of food during the festivities is likely to quickly deplete food stocks, increasing risk to food security. Vegetation conditions are adequate in Uganda s major pastoral districts in northeastern and southeastern regions. Declining water availability has led pastoralists to begin moving to dry-season grazing areas closer to water points in Karamoja, northeastern Uganda. Livestock movement has also been observed as pastoralists move toward traditional grazing areas in neighboring Katakwi, Kitgum, Kumi, and Lira Districts. District authorities and NGOs are trying to ensure the resident Karimojong access to pastures and water for their livestock with minimal disruption to civil security. Livestock health continues to be good. With the exception of eastern Katakwi District, the supply of agricultural commodities remains adequate in most district markets. The only observable bottleneck is in eastern Katakwi District, where low production and civil insecurity are severely hampering supply and movement of crops to markets. Overall, 2001 wholesale crop prices have followed normal seasonal trends with lower prices observed this year compared with 2000, implying contrastingly better access to markets for households dependent on markets. Appreciation for Contributions District Agriculture and Veterinary Officials, particularly Mbarara, Kotido and Moroto Districts. Investment in Developing Export Agriculture Project, IDRA Market Information Service, IITA The World Food Programme, Uganda office The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Lutheran World Federation OXFAM GB in Uganda Various NGOs A USAID Project Managed by Chemonics International, Inc. P.O. Box 7856, Kampala, Uganda Telephone Fax: amutengu@fews.net

2 1.0 Review of Continuing Humanitarian and Food Crises 1.1 Katakwi District: Since mid-september, an uncertain calm prevails in Katakwi District, where only sporadic attacks have been reported with no loss of life. Approximately 88,000 IDPs (about 30 percent of the district population) continue to live under threat of civil insecurity in more than 40 settlements. Kapelebyong and Usuk Counties are the most affected areas. The Government has deployed Uganda People s Defense Forces to provide security and deter livestock rustling by Karimojong raiders. In late October and early November, the President visited Katakwi District, informing and assuring the population of the Government s plans and effort to protect them, including disarming the Karimojong by the end of the year. Unable to cultivate and harvest crops, many households in Kapelebyong and Usuk Counties remain moderately food insecure. Only a few households have access to food from own sources. In addition, few labor opportunities and income-generating activities further limit access to the market to purchase food. Mitigation activities in Katakwi District on behalf of IDPs are few and irregular. Food and nonfood assistance, including medical drugs, malaria protective gear, and blankets, have been donated by the Government, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), commercial companies, and individuals, but more is needed. The Department of Disaster Management, Office of the Prime Minister, is seeking more assistance to meet the needs of the IDPs. Despite the hard living conditions, there are no reports of any significant increase in disease incidence or outbreak of new ones. 1.2 Bundibugyo, Gulu, and Kitgum Districts: With only low levels of rebel activity experienced in these three districts since early this year, residents are enjoying a return to near normalcy and relative peace, according to authorities and humanitarian agencies. These three districts have experienced rebel insurgency over the past several years. An estimated 90,000 IDPs live in about 45 settlements in Bundibugyo District, which is on Uganda s western border with the Democratic Republic of Congo. Rebels of the Allied Democratic Front (ADF) have ravaged the district since the mid 1990s. The Government, in collaboration with humanitarian organizations such as the WFP, UNICEF, ActionAid, and other NGOs, has been providing food and nonfood assistance to the IDPs. By mid-october, WFP was providing food to 63,000 IDPs, excluding those in settlements in Bundibugyo town and Nyahuka trading center where new head counts are required to determine the number of displaced before food assistance is resumed. In Gulu and Kitgum District, northern Uganda, attacks by the Lord s Resistance Army rebels over most of the last decade have displaced many households who live in government-protected settlements. Here, too, the IDPs have been receiving assistance from UN agencies, and local and international NGOs. Approximately 292,000 and 82,600 IDPs benefit from WFP s emergency food assistance in Gulu and Kitgum, respectively. Because of the relative calm in the three districts in recent months, many households have been able to access cultivable land to grow crops. By day, IDPs work their farms, and return to sleep in protected areas by dusk. In other situations, district administrations have taken advantage of reduced attacks to relocate the IDPs to protected settlements nearer to their homes where they are more easily able to access land and cultivate crops. Predominantly conducive growing conditions this year have supported normal crop development, resulting in good harvests that have greatly improved household food security for the IDPs in the districts.

3 2.0 Current Food Security Conditions and Outlook Until End of 2001 The supply of crops from the first season harvest (March to July) continues to be good in many districts of Uganda. Harvest of early-planted second-season crops, such beans, has also started, enabling households to replenish their stocks and ensure adequate food availability. District agriculture officials and NGOs working with farmers and commercial traders report sufficient quantities of cereals, pulses, and root crops in local markets. However, there is concern that high moisture levels and poor storage are likely to damage stored grain, leading to crop losses, although no significant damage has been observed yet. National food security projections, based on production in the first season harvest of 2001 and the expected near normal-to-normal harvest in the ongoing season, look good well into the first quarter. In contrast to other parts of the country, households in Kapelebyong and Usuk Counties of Katakwi District continue to suffer moderate food insecurity due to low area cultivated and meager harvests in previous seasons. The unstable civil security continues to limit households access to land, thereby limiting second-season crop cultivation to those few households that have agricultural implements and seed. Many households lack inputs and have not cultivated. As a result, a small proportion of the IDPs in this district have been able to take advantage of reportedly normal to above-normal second-season rains to cultivate. FEWS NET does not expect much improvement in household food security conditions in Katakwi District until next year, when the next harvest is expected, if the resident population is not able to cultivate during the coming season. 3.0 National Trends: Hazard Information 3.1 Rainfall Conditions: Rainfall conditions across the country were mixed during October, according to the Department of Meteorology. Districts in eastern and Lake Victoria Basin, southern, southwestern, and western Uganda registered above-normal rainfall in the first part of October, giving way to reduced rainfall in the latter part of the month. Still, these areas generally received normal total rainfall for October. Districts in northern Uganda experienced mostly low rainfall intensity and distribution for most of the period. OXFAM GB in Uganda and the Lutheran World Federation (LWF), operating in Kotido and Moroto Districts, respectively, indicate that unseasonably low rainfall was received in the two districts in early October. The Meteosat images (Figure 1), which show the intensity and distribution of rainfall across Uganda, confirm ground station observations in the country. In its short-term forecast update for the remainder of the season, the department expects increased wetness in the central, Lake Victoria Basin, and in the southwestern districts where near-normal to above-normal rainfall is projected. 3.2 Crop Conditions: Optimal growing conditions adequate rainfall, good soil conditions, and low pest infestation are reported in most districts of Uganda. These excellent growing conditions support good crop growth. District agriculture officials and the Investment in Developing Export Agriculture (IDEA) Project indicate that approximately 75 percent of the maize crop in the major eastern growing districts Iganga, Kamuli, and Mbale and central areas, including Luwero and Nakasongola Districts, is nearing or is in the tassel formation and fertilization stage. These crops benefited from well-distributed rainfall.

4 Figure 1: Rainfall Estimates Based on Meteosat Images Current: October 2001 Normal: October Current Vs. Normal: October No Rainfall Low Rainfall Moderate Rainfall FEWS NET/Uganda, November 2001 Source of data: NOAA Heavy Rainfall Poorly distributed rainfall at the start of the second season delayed maize cultivation in western Uganda Kabarole, Kasese, and Masindi Districts and most of the crop is at knee level. Early projections by agricultural officials in eastern and central districts indicate a normal to above-normal maize harvest this season if sufficient rain is maintained until the end of November. This will add to the already available good supply from the first-season harvest. The harvest in Kapchorwa District is nearing its peak, with half of the projected harvest of 50,000 MT expected to reach the market by early December. A major proportion of the bean crop in Uganda is in the flowering and pod-formation stage. Agriculture officials in central, eastern and parts of northern and southwestern Uganda have expressed concern over the current high moisture levels that may lead to crop root rot and molding, causing crop loss. FEWS NET is watching developments in the affected areas. Early second-season bean harvests are reported in Masaka, Mbarara, Bushenyi, and isolated central districts, where households cultivated early and in lowland swampy areas. According to OXFAM and LWF, households in Kotido, Moroto, and Nakapiripirit Districts produced an average sorghum harvest this year, enabling them to replenish and improve their food reserves. This harvest has encouraged the Karimojong to undertake cultural rites, previously foregone due to low food supply. The consumption of large amounts of food during the festivities is likely to quickly deplete food stocks, increasing risk to food security. 3.3 Livestock conditions: Kotido, Moroto, and Nakapiripirit Districts: Vegetation is regenerating in Kotido, Moroto, and Nakapiripirit Districts following wetter than normal conditions in early October, LWF and OXFAM report. In turn, adequate pastures are being restored, improving livestock access to browse and fodder. However, the supply of ground water from surface sources is low in many areas as is normal for the period, prompting pastoralists to begin moving to dryseason grazing areas closer to water points. Livestock movement, which is normal for this time of the year, has also been observed as pastoralists move toward traditional dry season grazing areas in neighboring Katakwi, Kitgum, Kumi and Lira Districts. Negotiations through district authorities and NGOs are underway with the neighboring people to give the

5 Karimojong access to pastures and water for their livestock and improve civil security for the resident population. Livestock health continues to be good Southwestern Cattle Corridor: The ongoing rainy season augurs well for sustained vegetation and replenishment of water, providing livestock with sufficient pastures and water in Kabale, Mbarara, Ntungamo, and Sembabule Districts. Only isolated incidences of livestock diseases have been reported, with minimal impact on overall animal health and food security. 3.4 Market Trade and Trends, Food Availability, and Access The supply of agricultural commodities remains adequate in most district markets. The one observable bottleneck is in the now-known eastern Katakwi District, where low production and civil insecurity severely hamper supply and movement of crops to markets. Low crop prices continue to be reported in the districts, enabling marketdependent households to have access to food in the markets. In general, wholesale crop prices are lower in 2001 than in the same period last year. This is clearly shown by a comparison of market prices for banana, beans, and maize (Figure 2) for May to October before and after the first-season harvest. Despite lower crop prices in 2001, the current trend has been consistent with normal seasonal variations. Figure 2: Wholesale Crop Prices (UShs per 100 Kg) for May to October, Year 2000 vs Banana (Mbarara) 15,000 5,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 15,000 5, Beans (Mbale) Maize (Iganga) Source: Market Information Services and FEWS NET November 2001 Lower prices in 2001 compared with the past year means households will enjoy better access to markets during 2001 than the year before.