A GLOBAL OVERVIEW: Is there enough land for food, fibre and fuel? Sten Nilsson

Transcription

1 A GLOBAL OVERVIEW: Is there enough land for food, fibre and fuel? Sten Nilsson 200 th Anniversary of The Royal Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Stockholm, January 2013

2 CHANGING MIDDLE CLASS ADDITIONALLY 3 BILLION IN 2030

3 FOOD CONSUMPTION

4 GLOBAL LIVESTOCK Today: 60 billion 2050: 100 billion Source: State of the World, 2012; and USAgriTech, Inc., 2008.

5 ENERGY CONSUMPTION % Source: Ray, C. Blog: Real Firewood Stacking (11 Dec 2012); and ExxonMobil 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

6 VOLUMES OF NEW BIO-BASED PRODUCTS?

7 WATER BALANCE 2030 in km 3 Source: RatesToGo ; and Charting Our Water Future, The Water Resources Group, 2010.

8 HUMAN INFRASTRUCTURE Additional land requirements by 2030: 120 million ha = area of South Africa Source: Seto, KC et al, PNAS 109 (40) , 2 October 2012.

9 NATURE INFRASTRUCTURE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT 2050 = 2.5 WORLDS Source: McGlade, J., European Environment Agency, 2011.

10 THE RESOURCE CHALLENGE Finding new sources of supply of natural resources is becoming increasingly challenging and expensive Resources are increasingly linked. Changes in one resource impacts others Environmental factors increasingly constrain the utilization Increasing societal concerns over the utilization of the natural resources Meeting future demands will require a large expansion of supply

11 TOTAL LAND Not present < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

12 subtracting built-up areas Not present < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

13 subtracting cultivated land Not present < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

14 subtracting forest areas Not present < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

15 excluding non-vegetated areas Not present < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

16 excluding protected areas Undefined < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Protected Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

17 subtracting land with steep slopes Undefined < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Protected Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

18 excluding climatically unsuit-able or very marginal areas Undefined < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Protected Unproductive Very marginal Note: The map indicates the share of each grid-cell that is available for use Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO

19 2.1 billion ha left Grasslands Sources: IIASA,LUC (2007) and Pic:

20 Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO and FAO, Intensity of grass/scrub/wood land (%) Density of ruminant livestock (cattle equiv./ha) 700 mha available

21 WHERE DOES LAND COME FROM IN 2030? HOW TO BALANCE THE DEMAND? Availability million ha Agriculture Demand 200 million ha Industrial Forestry 25 million ha Bioenergy 290 million ha Biochemical Industry? Source: Nilsson (2007) Deficit: million ha

22 Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011 LAND BALANCES Deficit: million ha in 2030 based on unused land and additional land needed. With accumulated deforestation of million ha in total, the land deficit will be million ha IIASA and WWF, 2011 Business as usual, accumulated deforestation by 2050 of 230 million ha (no deficit of agricultural land) McKinsey Global Institute, 2011 Deficit of million ha of cropland in 2030 to cover food, feed, and fuel demands (productivity increase in agriculture: 1% per year)

23 WHAT DOES ALL THIS TELL US? We know nothing Uncertainty in data sets greater than 50% We CAN fix it We just have to do the right things in the right place is another argument. Will we do it? Probably not There is a huge land use problem ( mha deficit) There is no unused land in reality (Persson 2007)

24 LARGE SCALE LAND USE CONFLICTS ALREADY EXIST

25 INTERNATIONAL LAND GRABBING SINCE 2000 Oxfam (2012): 230 million ha 30% is forest land Number of hectares (millions) cross-referenced: ~70 million ha Number of hectares (millions) reported: ~ 200 million ha Source: Adapted from: Khare, A. Large-Scale Land Acquisitions An International Overview, Rights + Resources Institute, 18 Dec

26 DOMESTIC LAND GRABBING INDIA Additional land requirements by 2030 (agrifuel, infrastructure, extractive activities, nonconventional energy): 11.5 million ha corresponding to 4% of the total land area Source: Adapted from: Khare, A. Land Acquisition and Related Disputes, Rights + Resources Institute, 18 Dec

27 AVERAGE AGRICULTURE LAND PRICES IN US$ PER HA IN SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL ha < Source: Economic Agriculture Institute, Brazil, Average price relation 2012: North: 100 Northeast: 266 Central Western: 300 Southeast: 564 South: 662 Source: Kory Melby s Brazilian Ag Consulting Services and Investment Tours, 1 Nov

28 UNPLANTED URUGUAYAN FOREST LAND PRICES Marginal cost of pulpwood in Uruguay at parity with marginal costs in the Nordic countries Land prices in Uruguay have increased by 5x during last 10 years In 2000, good quality forest land with deep soil sold for US$ 500/ha, and similar land with shallower soils now selling for US$ 2,500-3,000/ha land transactions in Australia, ; 6% real price increase/yr. Source: Don Roberts, CIBC World Markets Inc., 2010

29 AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION IS OF MAJOR CONCERN Source: NATURE, Vol 466, 29 July 2010

30 GLOBAL CROP PRODUCTION: Source: Science news, The Green Revolution is Wilting, 18 Dec

31 WATER AND AGRICULTURE Today agriculture accounts for 70-75% of human freshwater consumption In 2030 a gap of 40% between demand and supply of freshwater is foreseen By 2030 farming will need 45% more freshwater compared to the consumption today

32 AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION About 80 million ha forest grabbing Source: Gibbs, HK et al, PNAS 107 (38) , 2010.

33 POTENTIALS FOR CHANGE Forest restorations in South Korea Source: Kwang-Il Tak, Kookmin University, Seoul, Korea

34 FOREST LANDSCAPE RESTORATION POTENTIAL (million hectares, excluding the boreal) Higher probability Lower probability Broad-scale Mosaic Irrigated croplands Rainfed croplands Temperate Humid Tropics Dry Tropics Total Source: Lars Laestadius, World Resources Institute, and Peter Potapov, South Dakota State University, 2010

35 CROPLAND CONVERSION TO PRODUCTIVE LAND There are Mha accumulated of degraded croplands during the last 100 years which could be converted to productive cropland (Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2011) There are 300 Mha of agricultural land that could become more productive and sustainable through agro-forestry (IPFRI, 2006)

36 VERTICAL FARMING Source: Nelson, B. Could vertical farming be the future? Frontiers on NBC News, 12 Dec

37 IN-VITRO MEAT PRODUCTION No land, no farmers, no animals, no mucking Source: Dagens Nyheter (Swedish newspaper) published on 30 Aug. 2011;

38 INDUSTRIAL WOOD DEMAND INCREASE TO 2030 IS SIZEABLE Source: Jan Wintzell, Pöyry, Sept. 2011

39 DEMAND OF WOOD FOR ENERGY (Whiteman, A., 2011 in billion m3 RWE) Heat & Power (primary solid biomass) Traditional solid biomass Coal replacement Biofuels

40 2020 EU RUSSIA JAPAN CHINA OCEANIA SE ASIA INDIA AFRICA LATIN AMERICA Wood/biomass deficit million m 3 /yr Same harvest level as today, or lower Wood deficit: million m 3 /yr Wood deficit: million m 3 /yr + 40 million m 3 /yr of industrial wood Deficit. 20 million m 3 /yr lower harvest Wood deficit: million m 3 /yr Wood deficit: 35 million m 3 /yr million m 3 /yr of industrial wood; domestically consumed U.S.A??? CANADA Reduced harvest by million m 3 /yr of industrial wood

41 OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NORTH Dramatically changed future global landscapes Nordic countries (and the Boreal region) have, on average, more available land, forests, and water resources per capita than other regions. The Nordic nature production systems are more robust than in many other regions of the world Land resources in the Nordic countries (and the Boreal region) will become more and more valuable if managed correctly.

42 THE WAY FORWARD 1 TODAY Short-term single-output thinking Businesses think in terms of market supply chains; farmers and forest owners think in terms of their land; governments think about environmental issues through regulations and setting aside protected areas; financial industries think about investments in sectors and individual firms. Policies and planning are undertaken by sector and are conflicting between sectors. Land use issues most often fall between agriculture, forestry, environment, industry, and economic ministries Industry-based strategies and business models are based on constant or falling real prices of resource inputs

43 THE WAY FORWARD 2 TOMORROW Tackling the resource agenda must start with a shift of mind sets and mechanisms among stake holders and institutions. New mind sets must reach across traditional sector boundaries to deal with the interconnected problems and opportunities of food-, forest-, energy-production, ecosystem services, water supply, societal services, rural development, etc., and must provide sources of synergy and broader economic policymaking. Integrated landscape approach applied as an organizing framework. The conventional forest value chain which tells the story from the forest to the consumer is obsolete the relevant one is the landscape value chain. The landscape approach is fundamental to meet future natural resource demands.

44 LANDSCAPE APPROACH Productivity/Production Revolution Through Increased Synergy Effects Production of natural values = stocks and states; biodiversity, climate, wildlife, water, etc. over large scale landscapes Forest production = flows; wood and money created in individual stands Production of societal values = stocks and states created over large scale landsapes

45 WHERE TO BEGIN? The Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry has, for 200 years, been successful but has separated forestry and agriculture issues. It is time for an new structure which can stimulate a dialogue on a future integrated land use. The Life Sciences universities (in Sweden, SLU) are, through the boundaries set by the Faculties, efficiently hindering integrated land use thinking. Tear down the Faculties! Re-organize the relevant Ministries and their agencies into one Natural Resource Ministry with affiliated agencies!

46 Thank you for your attention! Sten B. Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB TT Banan 12, S Hedemora, Sweden Phone/Fax: Cell: and Guest Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria