Enabling the Business of Agriculture

Transcription

1 Enabling the Business of Agriculture Seed market in Africa: challenges and prospects Jean Philippe Lodugnon Harding Dakar, March 1, 2017

2 Background 78% of the world s poor live in rural areas 50% more food to feed 9 billion by 2050 Climate change yield losses up to 5% in 2030 and 30% in 2080 Source: World Bank (2013). Agriculture Action Plan World Bank (2015). Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty 2

3 Central role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (1/2) 24% of region s GDP generated by 20% agricultural production* of region s GDP generated by agribusiness input supply, processing, marketing and retailing* Agriculture value added (% of GDP), Burundi Ethiopia Mali Sudan Niger Burkina Faso Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Malawi Uganda Benin Mozambique Cameroon Ghana Nigeria Cote d'ivoire Senegal Zimbabwe Zambia Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database *excluding South Africa. World Bank (2013). Growing Africa: Unlocking the Potential of Agribusiness 3

4 Central role of agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (2/2) The value food markets is projected to reach a trillion dollars in 2030 High yield gaps open major opportunities on the supply side Projected value of food markets in Sub- Saharan Africa Current yield relative to estimated potential yield Sub- Saharan Africa Asia South America Maize Oil palm Soybean Sugarcane Source: World Bank (2013) Source: World Bank (2013) based on Deininger and Byerlee

5 Challenges: importance of the informal seed sector Estimates of size of the informal seed sector Country % informal seed sector Description Ethiopia 59.3 % famers that used non-commercial maize seed in 2011/12* Kenya 82.3 % seed used by farmers in 2011 sourced in the informal seed sector** Malawi 68.8 % seed used by farmers in 2011 sourced in the informal seed sector** Nigeria 76 % famers that used non-commercial maize seed in 2011/12* Tanzania 70.2 % famers that used non-commercial maize seed in 2010/2011* Uganda 63.4 % famers that used non-commercial maize seed in 2010/2011* Zimbabwe 77.3 % seed used by farmers in 2009 sourced in the informal seed sector** *Source: Sheahan, M., Barrett, C.B. (2016). Ten striking facts about agricultural input use in Sub-Saharan Africa **Source: McGuire, S. & Sperling, L. (2016). Seed systems smallholder farmers use 5

6 tons/ha Challenges: modest productivity gains Closing these yield gaps to respond to increasing food demand without further expansion of the agricultural frontier South America (+128%) World (+42%) Southern Asia (+62%) Eastern Africa (+37%) Africa (+35%) Western Africa (+38%) Source: Faostat database, cereal (rice milled eqv.) yields 6

7 Challenges: low level of integration in international maize trade 20% 7.2% of world s maize harvested area is located in Africa* participation of African countries in global maize seed exports** 5.4% participation of African countries in global maize seed imports** West Africa maize seed exports by destination West Africa maize seed imports by source Source: Keyse et al Towards an Integrated Market for Seeds and Fertilizers in West Africa *FAOSTAT database, data for 2014 ** MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity, data for

8 Improved seeds: enhancing productivity and guaranteeing food security Estimates of the productivity impact of improved crop varieties in Sub-Saharan Africa Crop % yield impact from adoption Maize 45 Pearl millet 38 Rice 24 Beans 55 Cassava 48 Sorghum 34 Cowpea 66 Potato 40 Banana 22 Other benefits include: Stabilization of yields and management of risks Tolerance to environmental conditions (drought, pests and diseases) Higher response to agricultural practices (e.g. applied fertilizers and nutrients) More uniform plant population and maturity Source: CGIAR-CABI (2015). Crop Improvement, Adoption and Impact of Improved Varieties in Food Crops in Sub-Saharan Africa 8

9 Few factors affecting the availability and adoption of improved seed Crop breeding systems (e.g. lack of breeders) Institutional/Organizatio nal arrangements (e.g. limited public sector capacity) Regulatory failures (e.g. unnecessary delays) Socioeconomic conditions (e.g. cost of commercial seed and additional inputs) 9

10 EBA: a tool to inform policymaking and trigger reforms based on cross-country benchmarking 10

11 Timeline EBA Kick off /15: data collection in 10 countries 2015/16: Data collection in 40 countries 2016/17: Data collection in 62 countries 2018: Data collection in 80 countries 11

12 Geographical Coverage (2017) OECD HIGH INCOME: Chile Denmark Greece Poland Spain Italy Korea Netherlands MENA: Egypt, Arab Rep. Jordan Morocco ECA: Armenia Bosnia-Herzegovina Georgia Kyrgyz Republic Romania EAP: Cambodia Lao, PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Thailand Vietnam Russian Federation Serbia Tajikistan Turkey Ukraine LAC: Bolivia Colombia Guatemala Haiti Mexico Nicaragua Peru Uruguay SSA: Benin Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cote D Ivoire Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Liberia Malawi Mali Mozambique Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Sudan Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe SA: Bangladesh India Nepal Sri Lanka India: Sub-national study in - Bihar - Maharashtra - Odisha - Uttar Pradesh 12

13 Thematic coverage Scored for EBA 2017 Cross Cutting Under Development Seed Fertilizer Machinery Finance Enviro. Sust Land Transport Markets Water ICT Gender Livestock EBA benchmarks markets associated with activities along the agribusiness value chain 13

14 EBA 2017 Indicators 14

15 Additional indicators 15

16 EBA Seed Plant breeding Variety registration Seed quality control PLANT BREEDING Existence, duration and terms of plant variety protection (non discrimination of foreign actors) List of protected varieties Right to license protected varieties Licensing of public varieties to private seed enterprises Access to early generation seed Access to germplasm conserved by public genebanks Ease of import of seed for research and development 16

17 EBA Seed Plant breeding Variety registration Seed quality control VARIETY REGISTRATION Existence of a variety release committee (VRC), its composition and frequency of its meetings Availability and maintenance of an online variety catalogue Acceptance of testing data from foreign authorities Time and cost involved for the private sector when registering a new maize variety with the government, from application to final release 17

18 EBA Seed Plant breeding Variety registration Seed quality control SEED QUALITY CONTROL Existence of official fee schedules for seed certification Requirement to perform post-control testing Mandatory recordkeeping to ensure traceability of breeding materials Existence of third-party accreditation or self-accreditation for nonpublic sector actors Labelling requirements Existence of punitive measure for mislabeling of seed bags 18

19 How does it look? Report Country tables available for 62 countries, including 22 countries in Sub- Saharan Africa 19

20 How does it look? Full set of data and country profiles available at 20

21 Netherlands Spain Denmark Italy Poland Romania Kenya Korea, Rep. Uruguay Peru Philippines Turkey Georgia Greece Zimbabwe Zambia Tanzania Russian Federation Serbia Morocco India Jordan Mozambique Mexico Bolivia Guatemala Colombia Armenia Chile Côte d'ivoire Uganda Thailand Ukraine Myanmar Kazakhstan Senegal Egypt, Arab Rep. Cambodia Burundi Sudan Nigeria Vietnam Nicaragua Malaysia Nepal Sri Lanka Ethiopia Ghana Niger Malawi Tajikistan Mali Kyrgyz Republic Bangladesh Benin Bosnia and Herzegovina Burkina Faso Cameroon Lao PDR Rwanda Haiti Liberia EBA Seed 100 EBA17 Seed DTF scores

22 Kenya Zimbabwe Zambia Tanzania Mozambique Côte d'ivoire Uganda Senegal Burundi Sudan Nigeria Ethiopia Ghana Niger Malawi Mali Benin Burkina Faso Cameroon Rwanda Liberia EBA Seed EBA17 Seed DTF scores: Sub-Saharan Africa Seed DTF Plant breeding DTF Variety registration DTF Seed quality control DTF Time and cost to register new varieties DTF 22

23 EBA Seed Improving EBA Seed scores: Adopting goodpractices already in place in other countries Detailed catalogue, regularly updated and available online +3 points Variety release committee including non governmental representatives and meeting in time to avoid delays for seed multiplication +3 points Improved access to early generation seed by seed companies +2 points

24 EBA Seed: key regional findings Plant breeding 1/3 of countries surveyed do not regulate plant variety protection; When regulated, laws do not discriminate between national and foreign applicants; In 1/3 of countries surveyed obtaining access to germplasm preserved in your national genebank is challenging; The majority of countries surveyed do not test (other than phytosanitary tests) germplasm imported for research 24

25 EBA Seed: key regional findings Variety release Quality control 1/2 of countries do not accept as official data, testing data from other countries authorities; The majority of countries have established variety catalogues but almost 1/3 of them are not updated Although a large majority of countries require seed certification for cereals, half of them do not have official fee schedules; 12 SSA countries establish a framework for the accreditation of seed companies for certification activities. However our surveys reveal that only ½ of them accredit seed companies in practice 25

26 EBA Environmental Sustainability Supporting plant breeding through the sustainable conservation and access to diverse genetic resources CONSERVATION National genebank/collection system Activities performed by national genebank Inventory of crop wild relatives Conservation practices at the local level ACCESS AND USE Regulations addressing the commercialization of local varieties Registries of local varieties Farmer s rights Regulations on access to PGR 26

27 EBA Environmental Sustainability: key findings Countries with a national genebank for plant genetic resources Yes No 33% of EBA countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have a national genebank 27

28 EBA Environmental Sustainability: key findings Countries with regulations on access to plant genetic resources Yes No 52% of EBA countries in Sub-Saharan Africa lack a clear set of rules to access PGR 28

29 What is next? Disseminate data and findings and integrate it into policy dialogue EBA regional launch in Tanzania Engage with civil society organizations, private companies and research community to refine indicators Expand country coverage and prepare for the next report EBA 19 29

30 Enabling the Business of Agriculture THANK YOU!