Updates on Distribution of support and New farm level analyses

Transcription

1 Updates on Distribution of support and New farm level analyses February 26, 2009 Martin S. Beaulieu, Statistics Canada

2 Updates on Distribution of support and new farm level analyses Distribution of support Data requirements Selected data source Farm organization and unit of analysis Treatment off-farm income Harmonized farm type Exclusion Preliminary results Next steps New analyses Questions/Discussion 2

3 Distribution of support: Data requirements Individual, family farms with sales>50k $US Six main farm types Administrative regions (TL2 or TL3) Income indicators for farm income and family household income Support including direct payment and OECD MPS estimates 3

4 Distribution of support: Selected data source Farm Financial Survey Self reported No question on depreciation Off-farm income under reported Annual Tax/CAIS Data Program Average Revenues & Expenses of Farms (Cat. No X) Average Revenues & Expenses of Operators (Cat. No X) Average Income of Farm Families (Cat. No X) Wages, Self-employment income, Investment, Pension, Transfer payment, Taxable Capital Gain Farm Operators and Totals for Families Trade-off --Timeliness 4

5 Distribution of support: Selected data source 2006 taxation data 281,000 individuals 122,000 families 172,000 income statements (excluding Territories, non-farms, Huterite colonies) representing $37,425 M gross sales (only >50k $US) 93,000 income statements representing $35,005 M or 93.5% 5

6 Distribution of support: Farm organization and unit of analysis Simple case: 1 individual in 1 family operating 1 farm Family A Ind 1 Farm 1_100% Simple case: >=1 individuals in 1 family operating 1 farm Family A Ind 1 Ind 2 Farm 1_60% Farm 1_40% 6

7 Distribution of support: Farm organization and unit of analysis Less simple case: >=1 individuals in 1 family operating >1 farms Family A Ind 1 Ind 2 Farm 1_60% Farm 1_40% 2/3 HI? Farm 2_100% Split household income (HI)? 1/3 HI? 7

8 Distribution of support: Farm organization and unit of analysis Complex case: >=1 individuals >1 families operating >1 farms Family A Family B Ind 1 Ind 2 Ind 3 Farm 1_33% Farm 1_33% Farm 1_33% 1/3 HI_A 1/3 HI_A 1/2 HI_B Farm 2_50% Farm 2_50% 1/2 HI_B 1/3 HI_A 8

9 Distribution of support: Treatment of off-farm income Divide family off-farm income by occurrence (number of farms-members) Re-assign parts to farms Need assess weight and possible bias Inclusion of capital gain With capital gain $5,821 M Without capital gain $5,171 M (-$650 M) 9

10 Distribution of support: Treatment of off-farm income Total inc. capital gain Capital gain Total off-farm Others Social transfers Pension Investment ,171 5,821 Self employment Wages 286 3, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Million $ 10

11 11 Distribution of support: Harmonized farm type OECD: Proposed: Crop Grain & oilseed Fruits Greenhouse, Nursery Vegetables Fruits Dairy Vegetables Grazing livestock Dairy Non-ruminants Beef Hog Poultry and eggs Others

12 Distribution of support: Harmonized farm type Average gross sales ($ per farm) Suggested Proposed 1.Crop 276,996 1.Grain and oilseed 206,671 4.Greenhouse, nursery and floriculture 1,219,619 2.Vegetable 665,321 2.Vegetable 665,321 3.Fruit 302,755 3.Fruit 302,755 5.Beef cattle 404,379 5.Beef cattle 404,379 6.Dairy cattle 396,124 6.Dairy cattle 396,124 7.Non-ruminant 1,002,608 7.Hog 1,030,781 8.Poultry and egg 973,101 9.Other 291,715 9.Other 291,715 Harmonized method farm type: rule 50% sales+1 or other rule 2/3 sales?? 12

13 Distribution of support: Exclusion of other revenue? Other farm revenues ($2,798 M) Custom work and machine rental Rental income (quota, land, buildings,...) Forest products Other revenues (dividends, profit share, horse racing...) 13

14 Distribution of support: Exclusion of other revenue? Gross sales 33,301 33,301 Payments 3,385 3,385 MPS 3,552 3,552 Support 6,937 6,937 Gross receipts 36,686 36,686 Other farm revenues 2,798 Variable inputs 34,420 34,420 Farm cash income 2,266 5,065 Depreciation 3,547 3,547 Farm income -1,281 1,517 Non-farm income 5,821 5,821 Farm household income 4,540 7,338 14

15 Distribution of support: Preliminary results Contribution of farms in quartile to totals for all farms Gross sales Direct payment MPS Support Farm cash income Farm income Off farm income Percent 1st Quartile 4th Quartile 15

16 Distribution of support: Preliminary results Dispersion: quartile average to average for all farms Gross sales Direct payment MPS Support Farm cash income Farm income Off farm income Average ratio 1st Quartile 4th Quartile 16

17 Distribution of support: Preliminary results Ratio share of support to share gross sales Direct payment MPS Support Share ratio 1st Quartile 4th Quartile 17

18 Distribution of support: Preliminary results Concentration in Canadian agriculture P75/P25 Gini Tax FFS Tax FFS Gross sales Direct payment MPS Support Farm cash income Farm income Off-farm income

19 Concentration of gross sale and support in Canada by type of crop farm, 2006 Share of sale % Gross sale Share in population % Share of support % Support Share in population % Grain & oilseed Vegetable Grain & oilseed Vegetable Fruit Greenhouse Fruit Greenhouse Equality Equality Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 CAIS/Taxation 19

20 Concentration of gross sale and support in Canada by type of livestock farm, 2006 Share of sale % Gross sale Share in population % Share of support % Support Share in population % Beef Dairy Beef Dairy Hog Poultry & egg Hog Poultry & egg Equality Equality Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 CAIS/Taxation 20

21 Distribution of support: Next steps Review work done by other country members If possible, harmonize farm type and inclusions/exclusions Methodological review Evolution of concentration over time (period?) Analyse concentration support between and within groups (farm type, regions ) 21

22 New farm level analyses: Consistency of performance Factors associated with consistent financial performance Continue on work initiate on low performers Longitudinal taxation data Characteristics of consistent low and strong performers of farm enterprises 22

23 New farm level analyses: Consistency of performance Factors associated with consistent financial performance Percent of farms Number of years with negative operating income 23

24 New farm level analyses: Reliance on off-farm income Increasing share off-farm income in total income 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Off-farm income Net operating income 24

25 New farm level analyses: Reliance on off-farm income Increasing reliance for all farm family types Small farms Medium farms Large farms Very large farms Pension farms Lifestyle farms Low-income farms

26 New farm level analyses: Reliance on off-farm income Increasing reliance on off-farm income for farm families Which industries Which occupations Differences between age cohorts, gender, distance to urban centres 26

27 New farm level analyses: Risk management Agricultural risk management through household portfolio choice Identify the extent to which government payment and off-farm income are substitute in managing farm level risk Variability of various components of income over time of different types of farm and how they implement risk management Longitudinal taxation data

28 Questions/Comments/Discussion 28