Econometric analysis of local level perception, adaptation and coping strategies to climate change induced shocks in North Shewa, Ethiopia

Transcription

1 Internatonal Research Journal of Agrcultural Scence and Sol Scence (ISSN: ) Vol. 2(8) pp , August 2012 Avalable onlne Copyrght 2012 Internatonal Research Journals Full Length Research Paper Econometrc analyss of local level percepton, adaptaton and copng strateges to clmate change nduced shocks n North Shewa, Ethopa * 1 Gutu Tesso, 2 Bezabh Emana and 3 Mengstu Ketema 1 P.O.Box , Adds Ababa, Ethopa 2 P.O.Box 15805, Adds Ababa, Ethopa 3 Haramaya Unversty, P.O.Box 48, Haramaya Abstract Ths study was conducted to analyse the determnants of percepton and adaptaton to clmate change. The study also examnes the copng mechansms followed by farmers n the aftermath of clmate change nduced shocks usng a survey of 452 households n north Shewa Zone. A two steps process of Heckman model was used to analyze adaptaton to clmate change, whch ntally requres farmer s percepton that clmate s changng and then respondng to changes through adaptaton. The analyses of determnants of percepton to clmate change revealed that number of factors rangng from socoeconomc to natural have contrbuted to the ncrease n percepton level of farmers to clmate change. Moreover, the determnants of adaptaton condtoned on percepton have shown that several programmatcally mportant varables have affected the adaptaton level of farmers to clmate change. The result ndcates that percepton to clmate change was the prme determnant for adaptaton. on the other hand, farmers follow dfferent copng mechansms; where some of the copng mechansms negatvely affect the future development of the communty and mmedate recovery from clmate change mpacts. Thus carefully targeted programmng should be made to enable farmers take those postve copng mechansms and exercse those strateges that can boost ther adaptaton to the changng clmate condton. In concluson, awareness creaton on clmate change, facltaton of credt avalablty, nvestment on non-farm engagement, mprove good mx of lvestock holdng, encourage adult educaton, dssemnaton of ndgenous early warnng nformaton, dversfyng crops to perennal trees, and mproved frequences of agrcultural extenson contact be made so as to ensure farmers well perceve clmate change and then adapt to the changes. Keywords: Percepton, Adaptaton, Copng mechansms, Clmate change, Heckman, and North Shewa. INTRODUCTION In the context of Ethopa, the natonal economy s dependent on sectors that are vulnerable to clmate condtons, such as agrculture, fsheres, forestry, and toursm. In the country, dry spells and droughts s more frequent, ran more nconsstent and torrental downpours heaver, all of whch together ncrease the rsk of sol eroson and vegetaton damage through runoff. These coupled wth shortage of mproved technology, low *Correspondng Author E-mal: gutessoo@yahoo.com techncal know-how, and poor marketng system resulted n serous food nsecurty and economc underdevelopment of the country. Hgher temperature normally ncreases the evaporaton of sol mosture; that n turn aggravates water stress. Accordng to WVI (2011), the amount of ard and semard land n Sub-Saharan Afrca s expected to ncrease by 5% to 8% by 2080; ths aggravates the unfavorable land tenure stuaton n many parts of Afrca. Varous parts of the country and the study locaton, North Shewa, n partcular exercse volatlty n ranfall and assocated drought and floodng. Even though hgh ranfall varablty and drought are not new phenomena n

2 348 Int. Res. J. Agrc. Sc. Sol Sc. Ethopa, the wdespread of publc percepton (Markos, 1997; Mulat, 2004) and scentfc evdences n some part of the country (Ketema, 1999) relatng these phenomena to clmate change used to be very low. Floods, whch have not been major problem n Ethopa, are now becomng notable n many part of the country. For nstance, n 2006 the eastern and south-western part experenced one of the most devastatng floods n the modern hstory of the country (Woldeamlak and Dawt 2011). In North Shewa, small-scale agrculture consttutes the backbone of the communty s lves. Ranfall varablty and assocated extreme events lke droughts, flood, dsease outbreaks, pests, etc have trggered serous problems. Lterature reveals that even though ranfall varablty and the assocated shocks lke drought and floodng are not new phenomena and the publc percepton s also mprovng, there s no suffcent evdence as to whether or not clmate change s perceved as a major problem or realty among small holder farmers, partcularly by the poor and most vulnerable farmers n the rural areas (Woldeamlak and Dawt, 2011). As far as publshed materals coverng clmate change percepton and adaptaton are concerned, only few studes (Mezw- Hausken, 2004; Mahmud et al., 2008; Akllu, 2009; and Deressa et al., 2008) have attempted to address level of percepton to decrease n ranfall and ncrease n temperature. In the world of frequent clmate change, studes ndcate that Afrca s agrculture whch s negatvely affected by clmate change (Pearce et al., 1996; McCarthy et al., 2001) needs to adapt to the changng condtons. As quoted by Deressa (2008), adaptaton s dentfed as one of the polcy optons to reduce the negatve mpact of clmate change (Adger 2003; Kurukulasurya and Mendelsohn, 2006). Adaptaton to clmate change refers to adjustment n natural or human systems n response to actual or expected clmatc stmul or ther effects, whch moderates harm or explots benefcal opportuntes (IPCC 2001). The major bass of adaptaton needs to be a well perceved change and expected changes to come. In ths regard, common adaptaton methods n agrculture can nclude: use of new crop varetes and lvestock speces that are more suted to drer condtons, rrgaton, crop dversfcaton, mxed crop lvestock farmng systems and changng plantng dates (Bradshaw et al., 2004; Kurukulasurya and Mendelsohn, 2006; Nhemachena and Hassan, 2007). Except the few qualtatve attempts made so far by Woldeamlak and Dawt (2011), and quanttatve analyss by Deressa (2008), there has been no study undertaken n Ethopa to analyze factors affectng the percepton and adaptatons to clmate change. However, any polcy and development strategy that attempts to boost farmers adaptaton to the changng clmate should be based on farmers level emprcal evdences. Recent studes suggest the need to focus on adaptaton research that seeks to nvestgate actual adaptatons at the farm level, as well as the factors that appear to be drvng them (Smth and Lenhart, 1996; Brklacch et al., 1997; Bellveau et al., 2006; Maddson, 2006). Based on ths need, the objectve of ths study s to analyze the factors that determne percepton and adaptaton to clmate change. The paper also analyzes the dfferent copng strateges followed by ndvdual households n the aftermaths of any clmate change nduced shock. METHODOLOGY The study area The study area s North Shewa Zone of Oroma regonal state. North Shewa Zone s found n north-west drecton of Adds Ababa wth Fche as the captal of the zone located almost at 147 Kms away from Adds Ababa. The zone has 13 rural dstrcts wth a total land area of 10, square-klometers. It s stuated between N and E. The topography of the area s mostly mountanous and ragged terrans and the alttude of the area ranges between meters above sea level. The sone s dvded nto three agro-ecologes, namely, 15% Dega (Hghland), 40% Weyna-Dega (Mdland) and 45% Kolla (Lowland) (CSA 2007). The area gets ranfall durng both Belg (February to Aprl) and Meher (June to September) seasons. The average annual ranfall of the area ranges from 800 mm to 1600 mm whle the mean annual temperature vares between 15 0 C and 19 0 C. The populaton of the zone s estmated to be 1,431,305, wth populaton densty of per square km and average of 4.56 persons to a household. The communty practces mxed farmng. The average land holdng of the household s 1.1 hectare. Cereal crops, pulses and ol crops are grown n the area. Lvestock producton also consttutes an mportant part n agrculture of the dstrct. Due to the contnuous reducton of farmland to degradaton by frequent floodng and drought, out of the zone s total area, 81% s brought to be farmland by expandng t to steep slopng areas, clearng forest lands, expandng to margnal lands and communal lands. Only 3% s grazng land, 3.7% forest land, 11.33% degraded and bare land and 0.65% s other form of land. The crops, lvestock and other lvelhoods of the communty s subjected to damage to clmate change nduced hazards. Ths coupled wth the contnually decreasng farm sze have serous mpact threatenng farmers adaptve capacty and lvlehood mprovements (CSA 2007). Data and Analytcal Tools The data for the research was obtaned from the survey of 452 farm households n three dstrcts of North Shewa

3 Tesso et al. 349 Fgure 1. Map and locaton of North Shewa Zone: the frst part of the map s north Shewa wth ts dstrcts and the second part s Ethopa wth ts regonal settng. Zone n 2011/2012. The dstrcts ncluded n the survey were Yaya Gullel, Hdha Abote and Derra dstrcts. The specfc study stes wthn the dstrcts were selected based on a mult stage random samplng procedure. Consequently, 18 Kebeles were selected. Intervew of household heads were conducted at a tme convenent for the heads. A structured questonnare was used to ntervew the farmers. Data collected from the farmers nclude household characterstcs, landholdng, crops and lvestock producton, dsaster occurance, percepton level (on percptaton, temprature, sol mosture, ar mosture and wnd drecton), adaptaton stateges pursued, dfferent copng strateges pursued, level of reslence, and other relevent nformaton. In addton, the research employed revew of secondary data at zonal level. The secondary data relevant for ths analyss was obtaned from the Natonal Meteorologcal Servce Agency (NMSA), Central Statstcal Authorty (CSA), and Zonal and dstrct annual agrcultural producton and extenson reports/data. In order to enrch the studes wth more relevant nformaton, qualtatve household survey was also carred out. The qualtatve data was collected through focused group dscusson based on a checklst prepared for the purpose. Model Specfcaton In order to dentfy and analyse the determnants of households percepton and adaptaton to clmate change, Heckman s two-step procedure was used for the anlyss of percepton and adaptaton. Adaptaton to clmate change nvolves a two- stage process: frst percevng change and then decdng whether or not to adapt by takng a partcular measure. Ths leads to sample selectvty problem snce only those who perceve clmate change wll adapt, where as we need to nfer about the adaptaton made by the agrcultural populaton n general, whch mples the use of Heckman s sample selectvty model (Maddson, 2006). The argument behnd condtonng of adaptaton on percepton follows the works of Deressa (2008), Maddson (2006), Mahammed et al. (2008), Woldeamlak and Dawt (2011), where they have presented that percepton comes frst to adapt to clmate change and adopton of mproved technologes. Thus, the hypothess of ths research was that farmers who perceve well about the changng clmatc condton adapt to the stuaton very well through adopton of dfferent adaptaon optons.

4 350 Int. Res. J. Agrc. Sc. Sol Sc. Heckman Two Steps Procedure Sample Selecton Equaton Percepton to Clmate Change The sample selecton equaton address the percepton to clmate change. In the sample selecton, percepton s a dependent varable where age, sex, educatonal level, HH sze, extenson servces, market dstances, number of relatves, farmer-to-farmer extenson, rrgaton usage, technology (mproved seed), agro-ecology, ownershp of rado, number of rural nsttutons partcpated n, number of non-farm enterprses, ndgenous early warnng, formal early warnng, and tranng/awareness rasng on clmate change were the ndependent varables. Percepton nvolves classfcaton of respondents nto two categores namely; perceved or otherwse. The dentfcaton of percepton level was set n the questonnare, where by a respondent s level of percepton from hs/her explanaton of the change happenng n terms of ranfall levels and varabltes, temprature change, wnd drecton and others were dvded nto perceved or not perceved. When ncludng nto the model, two mportant varables; ranfall and temprature was consdered, n whch case farmers who have correctly perceved the drecton of change for temprature and ranfall were gven 1 and the rest 0. Therefore, the selecton equaton s bnnary n whch case we used bnary probt model gven as: (1) (sample Selecton Equaton) S s the latent level of utlty the household get from percevng the clmate change Z s a vector of factors affectng percepton of clmate change s a vector of coeffcents to be estmated U 1 = the error term assumed to be dstrbuted normally wth a mean of zero and a varance of σ 2 Standard normal cummulatve dstrbuton functon Φ The latent Regresson Equaton: Adaptaton to Clmate Change Model The latent regresson equaton, whch was adaptaton to clmate change, was formulated by beng condtoned on the sample selecton equaton. In the adaptaton model the dependant varable was adaptaton to clmate change. The model specfcaton for the second stage (adaptaton) equaton s as follows: E ( Y. / S = 1) = f ( x, β ) + γ φ ( Z δ ) Φ ( Z δ ) E s the expectaton of takng adaptve actons; Y s I (2) the (contnuous) extent of adaptaton to clmate change, X s a vector of ndependent varables and β s the vector of the correspondng coeffcents to be estmated γ was estmated from the sample selecton equaton (Equaton 1) usng S and Z from whole sample and then the nverse mlls rato λ was computed as follows φ ( Ζδ ) Φ ( Ζδ ) γ = λ ( λ Ζ δ ) φ the = λ (the nverse mlls rato) (3) By enterng the nverse Mlls rato to the adaptaton equaton, t can be rewrtten as follows: * 1 Y = X j β + γ λ + U 2 U 1 ~ N (0,1) from equaton 2 U 2j ~ N (0,1) from equaton 5 Corr (U 1 and U 2j ) = ρ Where, X s K vector of regressors whch ncluded the followng: household characterstcs (age, sex, educatonal level), land sze, labor, lvestock ownershp, extenson servces, credt servces, ncome level, dversty of ncome sources, avalablty of perennal crops, market dstances, relatves, farmer-to-farmer extenson, rrgaton, technology, crop dversfcaton and other farm characterstcs. In addton, an nverse Mlls rato from the percepton model was entered nto the model. Y j * s the dependent varable, whch n ths case s adaptaton. Based on the 19 dfferent adaptaton optons adopted by farmers, farmers were gven value between 0 and 1, by dvdng the number of adaptaton strateges they have adopted by 19. For nstance a farmer that has adopted fve strateges wll be gven a value 0.263, computed as 5 dvded by 19. Therefore, clmate change percepton (Equaton 1) and adaptaton strateges (Equaton 5) were jontly estmated by full maxmum lkelhood usng the Heckman procedure n STATA. Thus, ths provdes consstent, asymptotcally effcent estmates for all parameters n such models (StataCorp2003). RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS Percepton to Clmate Change and Its Impacts Farmers percepton level normal probablt y densty The major areas of focus n the nstrument desgn for feld j functon (4) (5)

5 Tesso et al. 351 Table 1. Percentage of people havng perceved change n clmate parameters. Percentage of respondents S/N Clmate change ndcators Increased Decreased No change I don't know 1 Belg ran Meher ran Temperature Sol mosture Ar mosture Wnd drecton change Change (91.4) No Change (8.2) Not Observed (0.4) Source: computed from houshehold Survey data gatherng was that the survey nstruments fully captured how farmers perceve the change n clmate parameters over range of years and ther approaches to adaptatons. The percepton of farmers to clmate change ndcate that most of the farmers n North Shewa were aware of the fact that Belg ran s falng, Meher ran s decreasng, temperature s ncreasng and the wnd drecton and speed s changng from tme to tme. To get nformaton on ther perceptons to clmate change, farmers were asked sets of questons around ranfall, temprature, wnd, sol mosture, cropng shfts, etc. The frst step nvolved askng farmers as to whether they have observed sgnfcant change on the above varables over the course of two or three decades. The second nvolved as to whether farmers have observed mpacts of the change n these clmate varables on crops, lvestock, human health, natural resources, and the way they undertake ther normal lvelhoods. The responses from the farmers were n lne wth the report and data collected from the Natonal Metrologcal Servces Agency (NMSA 2012), whch depcted an ncreasng trend n temperature, decreasng trend n precptaton, ncrease n crop and lvestock damage, ncreased number of people affected, and changng cropng domnance over tme. Accordng to the analytcal result from the household survey, about 70.6 percent perceved mean temperature as ncreasng over the past 20 to 30 years; 21.2 percent, as decreasng; and 8.1 percent, has ether not observed or observed t as remanng the same. Smlarly, only 2 percent perceved mean annual Belg ranfall as ncreasng over the past 20 to 30 years; whle 71 percent, perceved that t has declned; and 26 percent perceved as remanng the same. In addton, the percepton to Meher ran, ndcate that whle only 7 percent perceved ts ncrease, the large majorty as 46 percent and 47 percent, respectvely, perceved t as decreased and no change. On the other hand, farmers percepton to the change n sol mosture ndcate that 79.2 percent have perceved t has become more dry and 87.8 percent perceved ar mosture has sgnfcantly decreased over years. As to the change n wnd drecton 91.4 percent have perceved change n wnd drecton. Table 1 above summarzes farmers perceptons of clmate change n the study stes. In general, farmer s have hgh level of percepton for the serally ncreasng temperature and sgnfcantly declnng precptaton n the study stes. Accordng to the data obtaned from the CSA, for the perod between 2002 to 2011, more than 3 mllon people were affected and nearly 60,895 hectares of crop lands were damaged to a range of clmate change nduced dsaster. In lne wth ths, t was found pertnent to enqure from the farmers to how many clmate change dsaster they were exposed to and ther level of percepton to these dsaster as a clmate change nduced ones. Accordngly, the varous hazards, drectly or ndrectly related to clmate change, dentfed by the respondents were presented n Table 2 below. Accordng to the rank gven by the farmers, large majorty of the farmers suffer from dsease outbreak, untmely ran, severe land degradaton, floodng, and drought. Accordng to Internatonal Panel on Clmate Change (IPCC) (2007a), ndvduals or regons vulnerablty depends on ther adaptve capacty, senstvty, and exposure to changng clmatc patterns. Unprepared farmers due to low level of percepton to clmate change suffer to the level of losng ther copng capacty. Wtnessng to ths fact, the stuaton of the study area shows the level of lvelhood damage to natural events mounts up to 75% at tmes. For nstance, the area stood to be the frst at natonal level n Yellow rust outbreak that serously affects the producton of man enterprse. Durng the year 2008, farmers have lost nearly all of ther producton to drought and dsease outbreak. Accordng to the data collected through household survey, around 86.5%, 61.1%, 70.8% and 58.2% of the households have suffered from crop damage, loss of access to food, loss of ncome sources and damage of lvestock producton due to the change n clmate change mpact. Farmers level of percepton n assocatng these mpacts to clmate change was observed to be very hgh. Determnants of farmers percepton to clmate change In the percepton model, whch was sample selecton equaton t was hypotheszed that household characters-

6 352 Int. Res. J. Agrc. Sc. Sol Sc. Table 2. Types of clmate change nduced dsasters encountared by farm households. S/N Clmate change nduced dsaster Percentage of respondents affected Rank 1 Drought Floodng and excessve ran Untmely ran Wnd storm Crop and lvestock dseases Human dsease Insect outbreaks land degradaton land sldes hal storm Conflct Others Source: computaton from household survey Table 3. Level of clmate change mpacts on households lvelhood. S/N Clmate change mpacts at farm level Percentage of respondents Rank 1 Damaged Crop producton Damaged Lvestock producton Affected lvestock health Affected human health Has affected access to food Affected ncome source Resulted n lvestock death Resulted n human death Others Source: computaton from household survey tcs, economc characterstcs, socal captal, agro ecologcal settng (hghland, md hghland and lowland) and technologcal access would sgnfcantly determne the percepton level of farmers to clmate change. Ths hypothess was n lne wth the works of Deressa (2008), Isham (2002), and Mengstu (2011). Table 4 below presents the basc descrpton of the varables ncluded n the selecton equaton. Accodng to the responses gven by farmers, large majorty as 76.3% have ndcated that they have perceved change n clmatc varables, where as 23.7% have not correctly perceved the drecton of change n mportant clmate varables. The Table also provdes detal statstcal descrpton of the ndependent varables whch were assumed to affect percepton to clmate change. In the analyss of factors determnng farmer s percepton level to clmate change, t was hypotheszed that, educaton, age of head of the household, nvolvement n non-farm ncomes, exposure to any awareness creatng meetngs on clmate ssues, access to early warnng nformaton, frequency of extenson contact, farmer to farmer extenson, number of relatves n the vllage, partcpaton n dfferent local nsttutons and agro ecologcal settngs sgnfcantly nfulence the awareness of farmers regardng clmate change. The case of nformaton on clmate change from ether extenson agents or any other organzaton s selfexplanatory n that t was meant to create awareness. In ths thought, farmer-to-farmer extenson, partcpaton n local nsttutons and the number of relatves n the vllage represent socal captal. In technology adopton studes, socal captal plays a sgnfcant role (Isham, 2002), n nformaton exchange, and hence, t was hypotheszed that more socal captal s assocated wth hgher level of percepton of clmate change. Moreover, farmers lvng n lowland areas were hypotheszed to have perceved clmate change as compared to mdland and hghlands. Ths s due to the fact that lowlands are already hotter and a margnal change n temperature could be perceved easly. Model output for the sample selecton equaton The model outputs from regresson ndcated that most of the explanatory varables have sgnfcantly affected the

7 Tesso et al. 353 Table 4. Descrpton of model varables for the Heckman probt selecton model. S/N Independent Varables Maxmum value Mnmum value Mean Standard Error 1 Age (n years) Sex (1 male and 0 female) Male respondents (380 - Female respondents (72) 3 Educatonal level (n Years) HH Sze (n Number) Dstance to Market (n Hours) 6 Number of relatve Frequency of Extenson Servce (n A year) Farmer to Farmer Extenson (1 for those havng F to F extenson 0 otherwse) %age HHs havng of farmer to farm Ext (68.4%) - %age of HH havng no farmer to farmer Ext (31.6%) 9 Number of local nsttutons partcpated n Rado ownershp (1 for those who owned 0 otherwse) Number of people ownng rado (118 out of 452) 11 Area under Irrgaton (Ha) Agro-ecology(3 for lowland, 2 for md hghland and 1 for hghland) Hghland (17.90%) - Md hghland (35.20%) - Lowland (46.90%) 13 Indgenous early warnng (IEWS) %age of people havng IEWS (56.20%) - % age of people has no IEWS (43.80%) 14 Formal Early warnng (1 for those who have FEWS 0 otherwse) %age of people havng FEWS (54.9%) - %age of people has no FEWS (45.1%) 15 Number of non- farm actvtes Number of Awareness rasng/meetng partcpated on CC ssues Sources: computed from HH survey 2011/12 level of percepton to clmate change. Varables that postvely and sgnfcantly nfluenced the percepton of the farmers about the change n clmate condtons over years nclude access to awareness rasng meetngs regardng clmate change and natural envronment ssues, knowledge of ndgenous early warnng nformaton, access to formal early warnng nformaton, frequency of contact wth agrcultural extenson agents, educatonal level of household head and age of the household head. In ths regard, ncreasng the exposure of a farmer to awareness meetng on clmate change ssues and natural dsasters plays posetve role n terms of mprovng farmer s percepton of future changes. From ths, t s apparent that nvestment on mprovement of the ways n whch early warnng nformaton dessmnates and mporvement n the educaton level of household head would yeld a better result n terms of mprovng the understandng of the prevalng clmate change. On the other hand, the model output has shown that varables lke dstance from the market was negatvely related to the percepton of clmate change though not found as such sgnfcant. Ths s due the fact that the more a farmer s dstant from output market and nput market, the less lkely he or she can have more contacts for nformaton sharng. Market places are usually the place where rural household exchange nformaton regardng all matters of the agrcultural actvtes as well as soco-economc ssues. Market places n the study locaton are very few, where some of the farmers were requred to travel more than half a day to reach market

8 354 Int. Res. J. Agrc. Sc. Sol Sc. Table 5. Heckman Result for the sample selecton equaton. Independent Varables Coeffcent St. error Access to CC Awareness meetng 0.38*** Non-farm engagement Access to formal EW nformaton 1.017* Area under rrgaton 1.34** Indgenous EW nformaton 0.95** Agro ecology: Lowland 1.427*** Mdland Hghland Ownershp of Rado Involvement n local nsttutons 0.32* Frequency of Agrcultural Extenson Vst 0.248*** Farmer to farmer Extenson Number relatves 0.111* Dstance from market * Household Sze 0.178* Educatonal level 0.255** Gender of household head 1.58** Age of household head 0.035** Access to Credt 0.90* Farm sze Area under perennal crops Lvestock ownershp Constant Total Observaton 418 Wald Ch square 90.39% ***, **, * = sgnfcant at 1%, 5% and 10% probablty level respectvely places. From the above Table 5, t s apparent that a unt ncrease n the dstance of a farmers from a market wll lead to an ncrease n probablty of not percevng by sgnfcant level. Smlarly, the male headed households have better level of percepton to clmate change as compared to female headed households, ths s may be because of the network of a famly n accessng nformaton whch ndcates a dfferental access of gender to clmate change nformaton ssues. Ths result s n lne wth the argument that male-headed households are often consdered to be more lkely to get nformaton about new technologes, clmate and take rsky busnesses than female-headed households (Asefa and Berhanu, 2008). Alke the expectaton of the research, farmers lvng n the Kolla (lowland) have better level of percepton about the clmate change. Farmers lvng n Wonadega (mdland) and Dega (hghlands) perceved less change n clmate than farmers n Kolla (low land). Thus the model ouput revealed that farmers lvng n the already hotter and mosture stress area has better level of clmate change percepton. Adaptaton to Clmate Change Impact Farmer s adaptaton strateges to clmate change mpacts Adaptatons are adjustments or nterventons, whch take place n order to manage the losses or take advantage of the opportuntes presented by a changng clmate (IPCC 2001). Adaptaton s the process of mprovng socety s ablty to cope wth changes n clmatc condtons across tme scales, from short-term (e.g. seasonal to annual) to the long-term (e.g. decades to centures). The IPCC (2001) defnes adaptve capacty as the ablty of a system to adjust to clmate change (ncludng clmate varablty and extremes), to moderate potental damages, to take advantage of opportuntes, or to cope wth the consequences. The goal of an adaptaton measure should then be to ncrease the capacty of a system to survve external shock or change (Nhemachena et al., 2008). Adaptaton to changng clmate condtons mproves socety s ablty to cope wth the changes across longer tme scales aganst short term (e.g. decades to

9 Tesso et al. 355 centures). In a rural communty where agrcultural actvty s the domnant means of lvng, adaptve capacty brngs the ablty of a farmng system to adjust to clmate change (ncludng clmate varablty and extremes), to moderate potental damages, to take advantage of opportuntes, or to cope wth the consequences. In communty s lfe the ultmate goal of an adaptaton measure s to ncrease the capacty of a farmng system to survve external shocks or change. The assessment of farm-level adaptaton strateges s mportant to provde nformaton that can be used to formulate polces that enhance adaptaton as a tool for managng a varety of rsks assocated wth clmate change n agrculture. Mcro-level analyss of adaptaton focuses on tactcal decsons farmers and local communtes make n response to seasonal varatons n clmatc, economc and other factors. These tactcal decsons are nfluenced by a number of soco-economc factors that nclude household characterstcs, household resource endowments, access to nformaton (seasonal and long-term clmate changes and agrcultural producton) and avalablty of formal nsttutons (nput and output markets) for smoothenng consumpton. Farm-level decson makng occurs over a very short tme perod usually nfluenced by seasonal clmatc varatons, local agrcultural cycle, and other soco-economc factors In the study area, the domnant crops for subsstence and cash for the communtes were Teff, Maze, Wheat, Barley, Sorghum, Mllet, Wld Oats, Fababean and Pea, whch comprses more than 97% of the total producton and consumpton. Other less domnant crops are beans, potatoes, cabbages, onons and carrots. However, crop yelds n all areas was on a declnng trend due to clmate change, land degradaton, pests and dseases, hgh cost of nputs, decreasng land szes, etc. Regardng the croppng domnance observed over the course of the last 20 years, Sorghum, Mllet, Wld Oats and Fababean become the domnant, whle the others have generally decreasng n terms of land allocated for ther producton. That s a clear ndcaton that farmers were takng up crops that were nherently reslent to mosture stress and mountng temperature. Experences of effects of clmate change and scarcty of resources have forced the communtes to take up some adaptaton strateges towards ensurng food securty and envronmental conservaton. The bggest efforts have been towards tree plantng, whch the farmers dd wthout knowng the postve mpact the trees would have on carbon sequestraton. Where as accordng to Neufeldt et al. (2009), carbon sequestered by trees and stored n aboveground bomass and sol contrbutes to reducng greenhouse gas concentratons n the atmosphere. The other adaptaton strateges farmers n ths area have taken was the development of small scale rrgaton especally n the Yaya Gulele dstrct. That was contrbutng a lot n terms of enablng the farmers to wthstand the frequesnt ranfall falure. Moreover, theores and empercal researchers around the world have dentfed wde varety of adaptve actons that may be taken to lessen or overcome the adverse effects of clmate change nduced shocks on agrculture. At farm s level, adjustments may nclude the ntroducton of early maturng crop varetes or speces, swtchng croppng sequences, sowng earler, adjustng tmng of feld operatons, conservng sol mosture through approprate tllage methods, use of perennal crops and mprovng rrgaton effcency. Some optons such as swtchng crop varetes may be nexpensve whle others, such as ntroducng rrgaton (especally hgh-effcency, water-conservng technologes) nvolve major nvestments. Economc adjustments nclude shfts n agro-ecologcal producton areas and adjustments of captal, labor, and land allocatons. At communty and country level, for example, trade adjustments should help to shft commodty producton to regons where comparatve advantage mproves; n areas where comparatve advantage declnes, labor and captal may move out of agrculture nto more productve lvelhood optons. Studes combnng bophyscal and economc mpacts show that, n general, market adjustments can ndeed moderate the mpacts of reduced yelds (Bradshaw et al., 2004; Kurukulasurya et al., 2006a; Maddson, 2006; Nhemachena et al., 2007). In areas lke that of our study locaton, where the occurrence of drought and hgh varablty of ran become common, major adaptve response were breedng of heat- and drought-resstant crop varetes by utlzng genetc resources that may be better adapted to new clmatc and atmospherc condtons. Crop varetes wth hgher yelds helps to keep rrgated producton effcent under condtons of reduced water supples or enhanced demands. In response to these mpact and long-term perceved changes, farm households n the study stes have undertaken a number of adaptaton measures, ncludng changng crop varetes, adoptng sol and water conservaton measures, tree plantng, and changng plantng and harvestng perods, use of rrgaton, adopton of water harvestng technques, plantng perennal crops, dversfed lvelhood optons and others. Such adaptaton strateges were also dentfed by the works of Bradshaw et al. (2004); Kurukulasurya and Mendelsohn (2006a); Maddson (2006); and Nhemachena and Hassan (2007). Table 6 below descrbes the dfferent types of adaptve measures followed by farmers n response to perceved long term change n clmate parameters; especally temperature and ranfall. In general, 61.3% of the farm households have taken at least three of these adaptve measures. Majorty of these adaptaton measures were related to mantanng or mprovng agrcultural yeld. And these adaptve measures related to yeld account for more than 90% of the measures followed by the farm households that actually undertook an adaptaton measure to clmate change mpact. The other categores of adaptaton measures were non yeld related and nclude desperate-

10 356 Int. Res. J. Agrc. Sc. Sol Sc. Table 6. Measures taken by farm households to adapt to clmate change. S/N Adaptve Measure Percentage of farmers 1 Use mproved verty/early maturng Use drought tolerant Use Dsease tolerant Change croppng calendar Change croppng locatons (alttude) Use rrgaton Increased use of fertlzer/ other tech Shft from crop to lvestock or the vce versa Use mproved anmal breeds Dversfy lvelhood Dversfy ncome sources Use sol and water conservaton Total lvelhood change Detary change Water harvestng Plantng trees around and wthn crops Constructng flood control Buldng wnd breaks others 9.3 Source: Computaton from household survey mgraton, engagement n daly labor works, and complete change of lvelhood from agrculture to other sectors. On the other hand, about 2.9% have taken no adaptaton measure and 38.7% have taken only one or two measures that may not ensure well adaptaton to clmate change. Moreover, ths category of respondents has clearly ndcated that they have faled to adapt to clmate change mpact. Majorty of the respondents who took no adaptaton measures ndcated lack of knowledge, shortages of labor, shortage of land, and shortage of money as major reasons for not dong so. In fact, lack of knowledge was cted as the predomnant reason by more than 60% of these households. Determnants of farmer s adaptaton to clmate change mpacts condtoned on perceved Change In ths analyss of the determnants of adaptaton to clmate change usng heckman two stage model, varables that were found to have theoretcal justfcaton and empercal evdences were ncluded n the model as the determnants of percepton of clmate change as shown n Table 5 above. In the second stage, whch was the outcome equaton, model for the analyss of adaptaton to clmate change, all relevant varables were ncluded. In ths model the measurement as to whether the farmers has adapted to the changng clmate condton or not was modeled, by beng condtoned on the frst model. For ths analyss of adaptaton to clmate change n the North Shewa, a range of varable were ncluded nto the model. These varables nclude household charcterstcs (sex of HH head, age of HH head, educatonal level of HH head, household sze and martal status of HH head), socal captal; whch measure access to formal and nformal nsttutons (formal extenson, farmer-to-farmer extenson, access to formal credt, number of nsttutons partcpated n, and relatves on the communty), agroecology (lowland, md hghland amd hghland), and other HH economc charcterstcs (non-farm ncome, lvestock ownershp, farm sze, number of plots, dstance from nput marker, access to mproved technology, dstance from output market and ownershp of perennal crops) and farmers awarenss level of clmate change ssues. The dependant Varable The dependant varable for the outcome model was adaptaton to clmate change. Ths just nvolved askng farmers as to whether they have adapted or not n whch the response was ether yes or no, followng the methods used by Deressa (2008), Maddson (2006), Nhemachena et al. (2007) and Woldeamlak, et al (2011). Some of these wrters have used a Heckman prob n the regresson to dentfy the determnants of adaptaton, ncludng percepton to clmate change as one of the ndependent varables. In those studes, the dependant varable was treated as bnary. Ths, however, has a lmtaton n that a farmer that responds sayng yes to the queston that asks, have you adapted to the changng

11 Tesso et al. 357 clmatc condton?, mght have not followed feasble adaptaton strateges, even though t may asume t has adopted. Therefore,the second alternatve followed n ths analyss was measurng the type and number of dfferent adaptaon strateges followed by a typcal farmer. Each of the strateges were measured and gave a farmer a value over a range of scale measurement. Thus adaptaton was measured as a dependent varable by takng range of adaptaton measures a farmer has undertaken. The major adaptaton strateges followed by farmers n the study area are lsted n Table 6 above. Consequently, Lkert-type scale was used to measure adaptaton level based on the level of farmers practce of each strategy. Then based on the number of adaptaton strategy out of the 19 optons, respondents number of adaptaton opton was taken and dvded by the 19 optons exstng n the study area to generte the dependant varable; adaptaton to clmate change. In ths regard, for nstance a farmer that has adopted only one opton wll get a value of (whch s obtaned by dvdng 1 to 19. On the other exterem, farmers that have adopted the 19 optons got value 1 (whch s obtaned by dvdng 19 to 19. And ths valdate the use of Heckman model for ths analyss as the dependant varables have become contnuous. to happen t s mportant to work on the determnants of percepton so as to foster hgh percepton level and there by promote adaptaton to clmate change. Credt Access to credt, was an mportant factor n clmate change adaptaton. One of the most mprotant factors among the rural households to foster ther agrcultural producton and sustanng lvelhood under extreme clmate stuaton was the avalablty of fnance to purchase the necessary nputs and cover cash needs. Ths mples avalablty of credt servces and farmer s access to credt cash constrants allows farmers to purchase necessary nputs such as fertlzer, mproved crop varetes and rrgaton facltes. Researches on adopton of agrcultural technologes ndcate that there s a postve relatonshp between the level of adopton and the avalablty of credt (Yrga 2007). Thus, ths study also hypotheszed that access to credt wll have sgnfcant postve mpact on adaptaton to clmate change. In the adaptaton model, the coeffcent of access to credt was 0.239, whch was sgnfcant at all conventonal levels. Model Outputs for Outcome Equaton of Heckman model The ndependent Varables Percepton to Clmate change Impact The analytcal result of the data from ndvdual households suggests that the knowledge about envsaged future changes (.e. percepton) n clmatc condtons strongly govern household decsons about adaptaton. Access to awareness about clmatc condtons and nformaton about future clmate change enables farmers more lkely to adjust ther farmng practces n response to clmate change. Varous studes conducted confrm that awareness of clmate change s an mportant determnant of farm-level adaptaton. The Mlls rato n the adaptaton model shows the coeffcent of sample selecton equaton as a whole; whch s peceved future clmate change. The coeffcent of the peceved change (0.44) s sgnfcant at 10% probablty level. Ths ndcates that perceved change poses sample selectvty. Moreover, the lkelhood functon of the Heckman model was sgnfcant (Wald χ 2 = 90.39, wth p < ) showng strong explanatory power of the model. Therefore, percepton to clmate change s an mportant step to adapt to the change n clmatc condton. For ths Access to Extenson, no of nsttutons, Access to ndgenous EWS and partcpaton n local nsttutons The hstory of agrcultural extenson n Ethopa goes back to Imperal regme of Hale Sllase (Tesfaye 2003). The avalablty of approprate extenson servces on crops, lvestock and clmate change ssues play a vtal role n buldng communty s adaptaton to changes. Ths s because farmer s decson about ther acton wll be an nformed one. Varous studes n developng countres ncludng Ethopa reported a strong postve relatonshp between access to nformaton and the adopton behavors of farmers (Yrga 2007). Moreover, Maddson (2006) and Nhemachena and Hassan (2007) showed that access to nformaton through extenson ncrease the chance of adaptng to clmate change. Therefore, based on these lterature t was hypotheszed that household s access to formal and nformal servces lke extenson servces, number of local nsttutons partcpated n and number of relatves n a communty ncrease the chance of adaptng to clmate change. From Table 7, the model output clearly supported ths argument that households havng good extenson servces, nvolvements n many local nsttutons, access to ndgenous EWS and largernumber of relatve n a communty has exhbted sgnfcance at 10%, 5%, 5% and 10% probablty levels, respectvely.

12 358 Int. Res. J. Agrc. Sc. Sol Sc. Table 7. Model output for the adaptaton model condtoned on the percepton to clmate change. Regresson Independent varables Coeffcent Standard Error Access to CC awareness meetng *** Non-farm engagement *** Indgenous EWS 0.181*** Agro-ecology: Lowland 0.089* Mdland Hghland Number of nsttuton engaged n 0.087*** Access to agrcultural extenson 0.032* Number of relatves n a communty * Dstance from market ** Educatonal level of HH head 0.691** Martal status 0.094* Access to credt 0.239*** Farm sze 0.054** Area under perennal crops 0.101** Lvestock ownershp ** Constant 1.709*** Mlls 0.44* Total observaton 418 Censored 26 Uncensored 392 Wald Ch2 (22) 90.39* ***, **, * = sgnfcant at 1%, 5% and 10% probablty levels respectvel Market Access Havng market outlet has sgnfcant mpact n terms of enablng farmers to mmedately take ther pershable commodtes lke vegetables, fruts, lvestock products to market to survve from lose that may come due to change n weather condtons. Moreover, access to market or beng proxmty to market s an mportant determnant of adaptaton, presumably because the market serves as a means of exchangng nformaton wth other farmers (Maddson 2006). In ths connecton, ths study also hypotheszed that there was postve relatonshp between access to output/nput markets and adaptaton. Accordng to the data collected from household survey some households were half a days away from market, whle others lve proxmty to a market. Correlaton coeffcent ndcates that there s a strong correlaton between dstance from market and adaptaton to clmate change mpact. From the above Table 7 as well, the model output for market access n North Shewa was found to be sgnfcant determnant of adaptaton to clmate change at 5% probablty level. Agro-ecology Households resdng n locatons where the experence of very low ranfall than average n the Belg (fall) season were also more lkely to adopt adaptaton strateges compared to households n areas recevng relatvely good average ranfall. Whereas, households gettng ranfall above the average durng the Mehere (summer) season were not that much lkely to adapt to clmate change. Sgnfcant dfferences were also observed across the varous agro-ecologcal zones when t came to the lkelhood that households would undertake measures to adapt to the dfferent clmate change nduced shocks. In ths connecton, households lvng n lowland took more than 10 adaptaton measures, whle people lvng n md hghland and hghland took less than 5 and 3 adaptaton measures on average, respectvely. For nstance households n the lowlands (Kolla) were more lkely to adapt to very low ranfall, dsease outbreaks, damage to wnds, and low humdty as compared to households lvng n the other agro-ecologcal zones. HH Characterstcs Smlarly, sgnfcant dfferences n responses were also observed based on household sze, martal status, age of the household head, and lteracy levels of household heads. In general, larger households, those whose heads

13 Tesso et al. 359 were older and more lterate wth relatvely better access to technology were more lkely to adapt to the changes, ndcatng the mportance of avalable labor, suffcent experence and access to nformaton as factor that boosts adaptve capactes. In ths connecton, the educaton level of household and martal status of household head were found to be sgnfcant determnants of adaptaton to clmate change at 10% and 1% probablty levels, respectvely. Non Farm ncome, Lvestock ownershp, perennal crops and farm sze Partcpaton n dfferent types of non-farm ncome, lvestock ownershp, area under perennal crops and farm sze, represent wealth. It s regularly hypotheszed that the adopton of agrcultural technologes requres suffcent fnancal well-beng that may come from non-farm operatons (Knowler and Bradshaw, 2007). Other studes, whch nvestgate the mpact of ncome on adopton, revealed a postve correlaton (Franzel, 1999). Hgher ncome farmers may be less rsk averse, have more access to nformaton, have a lower dscount rate and longer term plannng horzon (CIMMYT, 1993). Lvestock plays a very mportant role by servng as a store of value, source of tracton (specally oxen) and provson of manure requred for sol fertlty mantenance (Yrga, 2007). Smlarly, the ownershp of perennal crops that yearly yelds output provdes the capacty to wthstand natural shocks that damage producton of annual crops and nterrupts some of the lvelhood operatons. Thus the number and types of lvestock, and areas under perennal crop owned were hypotheszed to have postve mpact on adaptaton to clmate change. The result for the study area shows that farmers wth dversfed non-farm ncome, large number of lvestock and bg sze of land under perennal crops were found to have hgher level adaptaton to clmate change nduced shocks as compared to farmers who are less endowed wth such wealth at 1%, 5% and 5% probablty levels, respectvely. Farm sze s also assocated wth grater wealth and t s hypotheszed to ncrease adaptaton to clmate change. Whereas some lterature from studes on adopton of agrcultural technologes ndcates that farm sze has both negatve and postve effect on the adopton showng that the effect of farm sze on technology adopton s nconclusve (Bradshaw et al., 2004). However, the result of ths study revealed that households wth relatvely bg farm sze were more lkely to take up more adaptaton strateges when compared to farmers wth small farm sze. Impact of percepton on adaptaton Agrcultural change does not nvolve a smple lnear relatonshp between changes n a farmer s decson makng envronment and farm-level change. One mportant ssue n agrcultural adaptaton to clmate change s the level to whch farmers update ther expectatons of the clmate n response to unusual weather patterns. A farmer may perceve several hot summers but ratonally attrbute them to random varaton n a statonary clmate. Another mportant ssue related to adaptaton n agrculture ponted out by Bryant (2000) s how perceptons of clmate change are translated nto agrcultural decsons. If the percepton level grows gradually about the change n clmate, Maddson (2006) argues that they wll also learn gradually about the best technques and adaptaton optons avalable. Accordng to hm, farmers learn about the best adaptaton optons through three ways: (1) learnng by dong, (2) learnng by copyng, and (3) learnng from nstructon. In clmate change adaptaton research at farmer s level, the basc focus s how much more mportant s clmate change percepton for adaptaton and how far s perceved change been able to nform adaptaton. Ths wll enable to make delberate programmng to mprove the awareness level of farmers on the changes. Percepton of farmers about the future change n clmate varables has sgnfcant mpact on adaptaton to the change. Accordng to the arguments and evdences portrayed by researchers lke Maddson (2006), adaptaton to clmate change s a twostep process whch nvolves percevng that clmate s changng n the frst step and then respondng to changes through adaptaton n the second step. Thus, percepton has an mpact on adaptaton level. Even though farmers are endowed wth good resources bases and other factor for adaptaton, the more perceved farmers adapt hghly than those farmers who have very low level of percepton. Even though the farmer owns small plot of land, less dversfed lvelhood optons, low non-farm ncome, etc, the condton of beng hghly aware of clmate change and ts mpact enables hgh adaptaton. The table below descrbes the dfferent adaptaton strateges adopted at dfferent levels of percepton. It analyses as to whether farmers wth hgher level of percepton wll have hgher level of adaptaton confrmng the result n table 7, wth sgnfcant Mlls rato coeffcent for factors of percepton. From Table 8, t s apparent that farmers who have hgh percepton level, as measured by the number of clmate varables the farmer has perceved over the couple of decades have by far adapted to the changes by