Conceptualizing sustainable land management in a globalizing world: perspectives and challenges

Transcription

1 Conceptualizing sustainable land management in a globalizing world: perspectives and challenges Presentation to ICSS 2009 Tokyo University February 2009 Anette Reenberg, GLP-Chair Professor, Department of Geography and Geology, Copenhagen University This presentation will Start with a few words about increasing pressure on global land resources Introduce the GLP framework, perceiving Earth as a coupled human-environmental system Discuss the challenges for assessment of sustainable land management, by looking at Spatial connectedness of contemporary land transformation chains Illustrated by the case of Danish pig production Conclude that sustainable land management at global scale requires looking at land in terms of geographic portfolios of land use options 1

2 Humanity is a major force reshaping the Earth s surface, atmosphere, and biogeochemistry, e.g. though use of land Source: Geo4 Pressure on land will continue to increase 4 MEA-scenarios Order from strength - a divided world Adapting mosaic local management of ecosystems TechnoGarden bases development on technical solutions Global orchestration a globally coordinated effort 2

3 Future trends increasing demands for animal protein 5 Future trends increasing demands for animal protein Future land requirements on a global scale can change rapidly as a result of social and cultural change in food consumption patterns. Trends towards the consumption of foods associated with affluent life styles will bring a need for more land. This dietary change is especially important for developing countries, The effects of changes in food consumption patterns on land requirements will be even greater than the growth in the world population This effect might double the need for agricultural land not necessarily close to the consumer 3

4 Cropland Cropland (1 = 100%) No Data Source: Navin Ramankutty 1800 Cropland (1 = 100%) No Data 4

5 1900 Cropland (1 = 100%) No Data 1990 Cropland (1 = 100%) No Data 5

6 Agricultural land the global picture What do we know? 50% of the Earth surface is transformed Almost all land has been affected in some way by human action 40% of the Earth surface is agriculture (15 mio sqkm cropland + 28 mio sqkm pastures) This accounts for 85% of the water withdrawals Current land use mapping does not indicate intensification (yield increases based on dramatic change in fertilizer use and irrigation) Turner et al. 2007, PNAS 104(52) MEA predictions Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios Crop Land Forest Area 6

7 The land use transition: the trend in simple terms Source:Science 22 July 2005: Vol no. 5734, pp Stages of transition Ecosystem response Habitatfragmentation Biogeochemistry Health Biodiversity Hydrology Frontier clearings CO2 emission New vector habitats Change in sediment load Subsistence and small scale farms CH4 emisson; Grazing change C and N stock Diseases from livestock - dust Loss of species (hunting) erosion Intensive agriculture urbanisation N and P pollution of water Urban climate Pressure on aquatic environment; land for recreation Impact from dams, channels, irrigation Climate Change in surface roughness Increased albedo Changed energy- and water fluxes; urban heat Adjusted from: DeFries et al American Geophysical Union 7

8 Global change from a land perspective: conceptualizing the dynamics of change Globalization impact linkages between local and global driving forces Globalization has Global facilitated scaleexchanges processes between distant and/or disconnected Localsystems scale processes Globalization affects both demand and supply of ecosystems services by allowing for access to new products and new locations to produce them Globalization makes industrial operations more uniform, e.g. meat trade is a result of transfer of innovation in feeding, breeding and transportation. Globalization can disconnect local systems from their local supporting natural resource base due to access to resources from distant places. Intensified global connection can increase negative environmental externalities of production systems (ex. invasive species) 8

9 Global connectedness => interdependence of regional risks and local and global sustainabilty Local-global interactions in land systems Food production systems (and decision making) are increasingly spatially disconnected from their natural resource base as well as from the demand side of the production chain (i.e. the socio-economic drivers) International demand Local conditions International supply Global provision Local (adverse) impact 9

10 Sustainable management of Danish landscapes: land use animal interaction Pork production Occupies local land Impact local environment Two approaches to sustainability assessment I: assessing the local agroecosystem Impact on the local environment investigated in an i-o model II: taking teleconnections into account sustainabilty aspects illustrated as a land transformation chain Agricultural landscape in a local nutrient circulation perspective The input-output model Backbone: National agricultural statistics Contemporary technology Contemporary i-o coefficients Contemporary fodder sources Approach: i-o-model of nutrient circulation in different land use scenarios Det fede landskab, Naturvismandsrapport Changing parameters: Pig production N-efficiency Consequences: Land needed N-surplus related to target Values/threshold levels 10

11 Mineral fertiliser and sludge Fixation Deposition from the outside Imported fodder Plant products Plants Animals Animal products Fields Atmosphere Farms Surplus System boundary Current agricultural system Pigs produced: 23 mio N-loss to the environment: 250 k-tons/y Land occupied by fields: 2.5 mio hectars N-use-efficiency: 43% 11

12 High Tech scenario same amount of pigs Pigs produced: 23 mio N-loss to the environment: 192 k-tons/y Land occupied by fields: 2.5 mio hectars N-use-efficiency: 50% Mixed scenario Pigs produced: 17 mio N-loss to the environment: 189 K-tons/y Land occupied by fields: 1.8 mio hectares N-use-efficiency: 44.5% NB: hectars idle land 12

13 ecological thinking i.e. towards locally anchored systems Pigs produced: 10 mio N-loss to the environment: 230 K-Tons/y Land occupied by fields:1.9 mio hectars N-use-efficiency: 40% NB hectares idle Denmark in the Global pig commodity chain 85% is exported 25 % of feed imported Dansk svineeksport 2007 Øvr. ikke-eu lande 7% Kina 3% Land Argentina Brasilien Nederlandene Tyskland Andre Total Danish import of soy Mængde [mio. kg] Andel af import [%] 1362, , ,6 5 81,5 5 14, ,7 100 Rusland 8% Japan 9% USA 3% Tyskland 25% Meat is exported to Germany, UK, Other EU, Japan, Russia Øvr. EU-27 14% Polen 5% Italien 9% UK 17% Production level mainly constrained by environmental regulations 13

14 Land use determined by international demand and environmental constraints Sojaskrå 21% Vegetabilsk fedt 1% Melasse 3% Vitaminer, mineraler og aminosyrer 3% Byg 46% Acreage in DK and abroad Imported soy Hvede 26% Other feed items Danish grown cereals Specifically dynamic crops Area (1000Ha) Soybean - Production on continents Africa America Asien Europe Year FAOSTAT FAO Statistics Division March

15 Globalization land transformation chains Food production systems (and decision making) are increasingly spatially disconnected from their natural resource base as well as from the demand side of the production chain (i.e. the socio-economic drivers) e.g. soy => pigs => porkchops! Place of land occupation (fodder) Place of Plant=>meat Transformation Place of Food demand creation Land use Accelerated pressure Decoupling from local capacity/demand Stable conditions Linked to local regulation rather than demand Ecosystem Under pressure, e.g. Biodiversity, habitat, water, Under pressure, e.g. Ground water pollution, Lack of incentives to extensivation Possible relief of pressure on local environment Socioeconomic system drivers Economy, technology, institutions Economy, institutions, Technology (transport/production) Culture, taste, economy, population Take home messages #1 Agriculture is a major factor in Earth System dynamic We have now a reasonable overview of the global extent of agricultural land cover and the way in which it has changed over centuries 15

16 Take home messages # 2 We have a less adequate insight in the changes in land use (i.e significant landcover modifications such as intensification, soil degradation, etc) - and the insight in teleconnectedness in global land use is limited Take home messages # 3 Places of production are increasingly disconnected from consumption (global export of land uses) Land use decisions are increasingly framed outside the local community linked to complex land tranformation chains Hence, sustainable land management at the global scale requires looking at land in terms of geographic portfolios of land use options i.e. local land use differentiations that ensure sustainble global trade-offs 16

17 Thanks for your Thanks attention! for your attention! 17