Futures and Foresight Activities in WLE ARM State of Foresight in the CGIAR

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1 Futures and Foresight Activities in WLE IWMI ARM State of Foresight in the CGIAR University of Aberdeen 9-10 May 2018 Presented by: David Wiberg, IWMI water-secure world world AA water-secure w w w. i w mi. o rg

2 WLE/IWMI Range of Futures Activities Purpose better planning and decision making Must be useful for decision making Scales Global/Regional Time (Week to Century) General trends, risks, hotspots National/Basin-scale Solution options and tradeoffs Supporting activities: Data and methodological development and refinement, verification Stakeholder scenario development Local Social impacts Stakeholder participation Solutions testing

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4 Global/Regional Irrigation and SDG2 people at risk of hunger without further irrigation investment East Asia and Pacific Latin America Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Ringler et al. (2018) Impact of expanded irrigation investment at at risk pop Africa south of the Sahara 5 % IRR and Low Cost -5.44% 5 % IRR and Medium Cost -3.96% 5 % IRR and High Cost -1.70% 12 % IRR and Low Cost -5.01% 12 % IRR and Medium Cost -2.33% Xie et al. (2018) 12 % IRR and High Cost -1.31%

5 2010 BASE BASEv SUSTgw SDgw SLgw 2010 BASE BASEv SUSTgw SDgw SLgw 2010 BASE BASEv SUSTgw SDgw SLgw 2010 BASE BASEv SUSTgw SDgw SLgw 2010 BASE BASEv SUSTgw SDgw SLgw 2010 BASE BASEv SUSTgw SDgw SLgw 2010 BASE BASEv SUSTgw SDgw SLgw 2010 BASE BASEv SUSTgw SDgw SLgw Global/Regional Groundwater and Food Security 1200 Largest challenges for overdraft are in South Asia Ending groundwater overdraft results in decline in irrigated production, a rise in world prices, and in hunger Social impacts of ending overdraft need mitigation strategies 1100 Supply Shortage NAM EAP EUR FSU LAC MEN SAS SSA consumptive use water supplies and shortages Population at risk of hunger in BASE (in million) and % changes from BASE Zhu, Villholth, Ringler, Sutanudjaja and Sood (2018)

6 Source: Xie, H. and Ringler, C., Agricultural nutrient loadings to the freshwater environment: the role of climate change and socioeconomic change. Environmental Research Letters Global/Regional Water Quality/Nutrient loadings Source: Xie, H. and Ringler, C., Agricultural nutrient loadings to the freshwater environment: the role of climate change and socioeconomic change. Environmental Research Letters

7 SOUTH ASIA DROUGHT MONITOR SYSTEM (SA-DMS) First of its kind to establish for entire South Asia using multisource remote sensing observations; Historical drought risk mapping and assessment covering SA countries (2000 Current); IDSI allows better understanding on drought frequency, duration over the 16years; Products are useful tools in drought mitigation studies and in decisionmaking process; 2015 field observations in Jalna, Maharashtra

8 South Asia Drought Early Warning System (SADEWS) Current Condition: 10 July 2017 Forecast Period : 17 July and 25 July 2017 Standardized Soil Moisture and Runoff Index for regional drought and early warning Summary: The experimental drought forecast products for research/scientific use based on 10th July 2017 initial condition. These forecast products are based on the real time weekly operational forecast generated by Global ENSemble (GENS), a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members developed at The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), NOAA. Drought Forecast Outlook: The SADEWS is regional scale early warning system developed as a collaborative project between International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and Indian Institute of Technology Gandhi Nagar (IIT-GN). Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and its partners concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of IWMI. The initial condition has improved over Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Western UP and Northeastern states.. Initial condition on the Soil Runoff Index (SRI) explains similar trend to SSI. Some level of dryness is expected in the following weeks over central parts of the region such as MP, eastern Gujarat and Jharkhand. The leeward side of the western ghats along the southern Maharashtra seems to be progressing towards dryness. In reference to IMD actual rainfall for India, several east-central states are in deficit rainfall condition which is affecting the crop productivity and advance need for State and Local authorities for better planning and coordination on water resources management.

9 Basins Information Water Accounting+ Irrigated Area Mapping 10 km global (2006) 250 meters in Africa and Asia (2015) 30 meter in Countries Basin Water Accounts Availability and Consumptive Use (E, T) Environmental Flow Calculator Flood and drought mapping Groundwater availability (GRIPP) Policy/Institutional/Legal mapping Priorities/Values Mapping Gender Profile Mapper Options Analysis Irrigation Benchmarking Systematic Asset Management System Dams Databases

10 Basins Consolidated basin information system

11 Impacts of climate on annual benefits - Tana Shrimp catch (t) Ungwana catch (t) Floodplain catch (t) Livestock (head) Low flow failures Generation (GWh) Reservoir catch (t) Natural BAU W ATER I NFRAST R U C T U R E E C O SYSTEMS

12 Impact of dams on malaria incidence 1.1 million malaria cases in SSA associated with dams Planned dams could result in another cases annually

13 Western Nepal WR database: Karnali-Mohana basin Met. Stns./Grids (DHM/IMD/TRM M): 36 Precipitation stns; 22 Temperature & Relative Humidity stns; 5 Sunshine Hours stns; 7 Wind Speed stns. Elev: masl Soil: 21 types (SOTER) LULC: 9 generic types

14 Western Nepal WR Database: DJB Area HYDROPOWER Projects Storage: 19 projects (67 6,720 MW); All are planned/ proposed Total Projects (> 0.5 MW): 150 nos; 21,006.8 MW

15 Stakeholder-based scenario development State-led development: Cohesive infrastructure investment Demand-drive development: Local management Sustainable development: Environmental nonobstructionism

16 Local activities and solutions Solar groundwater pumping suitability mapping Water user associations effectiveness (ex-post) Gender inclusion impacts Wastewater reuse and recycling business cases Water innovation technologies Rural-urban food systems (hubs, value chains, waste) Tank management in Sri Lanka Alternative energy development pathways in Ethiopia Groundwater Futures Africa Models for transboundary cooperation in the Kabul river Models of PPP for irrigation development in Africa

17 Future for futures in WLE Current Challenges Disparate, disconnected project information No consistent tools, data, or methods enforced. Messages applicable to local context and time Not enough consistent local analysis and categorization for generalizable messages Future Opportunities Greater emphasis returning to Flagship 5 Harmonizing baseline data collection efforts (big data contributes) CG system s offices on the ground and relationships an advantage for data collection Consistent interfaces to the data, toolkits, and generated knowledge being developed.