8,400. Prof Simon G. Potts

Transcription

1 The Role of Pollinators in Food Production and their Climate Vulnerability 8,400 Prof Simon G. Potts

2 Overview Pollination and food security (values, status and trends, drivers) Climate change threats: Spatial risks Temporal risks Management and policy response options

3 Pollination and Food Security

4 Pollinators are diverse Wild pollinators Managed pollinators

5 Wide reaching benefits More than 75% of leading food crops Almost 90% of the world s flowering plants Rely, at least in part, on animal pollination

6 Crop dependency varies Wheat Rice Cassava Cocoa Soy Apple Coffee Oilseed rape/canola Mango

7 Global agriculture reliance More than 300% increase in volume of agricultural production dependent on pollinators since

8 Economic value Annual market value linked to pollinators is billion

9 Human health benefits Total pollinator loss: 71 M Vitamin A deficient and 173 M folate deficient Global health burden: 1.4 M more deaths p.a. Chaplin-Kramer et al PNAS; Smith et al Lancet

10 Status of managed honeybees Global 45% increase globally Losses in N. America and many European countries ex-ussr USA Germany China Argentina Spain

11 Status of wild bees Europe has ~2,000 species of bee 26% of bumblebees are threatened Experts identified climate change as one of the biggest threats Nieto et al European Red List of Bees. IUCN

12 Drivers of change Habitat loss, fragmentation & degradation Interactions Pathogens Invasives Agro-chemicals Climate change Potts et al. (2010) TREE; Potts et al. (2016) Nature

13 Climate Change Risks: Spatial

14 Shifts in historical distributions 110 years data for Europe and N. America (>3 M records) Shift to higher elevations among southern species Failure to track warming at Northern limits Range loss from Southern limits Kerr et al. (2015) Science

15 Caught in climatic vice Kerr et al. (2015) Science

16 Future trends 68 bumblebee species in Europe Some of the best crop pollinators In trouble and more to come Rasmont et al Climatic Risk and Distribution Atlas of European Bumblebees Nieto et al European Red List of Bees. IUCN

17 Many species will shift northwards By 2100 Gain Status Quo Loss Bombus terrestris Red List status: Least concern Very common generalist bee Europe s top wild pollinator

18 Most Northern species will vanish By 2100 Gain Status Quo Loss Bombus hyperboreus Red List status: vulnerable Artic tundra specialist bee

19 A minority of winners By 2100 Gain Status Quo Loss Bombus argillaceus Red list status least concern Common and good pollinator

20 Orchards under climate change AREA OF DISCONNECT Current orchards 2050 projected orchards 2050 projected pollinators Polce et al Global Ch. Biol. AREA OF OVERLAP

21 Climate Change Risks: Temporal

22 Temporal shifts in activity Historical flight data ( ) 6 species of bee known to be important pollinators Andrena nitida 1st observation day Year

23 Apples: phenology shifts JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY Poor Pollination RISKS Lack of bee forage Senapathi et al in prep.

24 Management and policy response options

25 Options to reduce spatial risks Targeted habitat creation or restoration to increase refuges (food, microclimatic shelter) and connectivity: Protected Area networks Agri-Environment Schemes Translocation: Wild or managed pollinators to new isolated habitats Minimise other pressures

26 Options to reduce temporal risks Annual crops: Select varieties with flowering time matching pollinator activity Switch to self- or wind-pollinated varieties Perennial crops: Short-term, supplement with managed pollinators Long-term, replace with varieties with matched flowering times For both: Increase diversity of crops and uncultivated habitats Manage adjacent habitats to support (alternative) wild pollinators

27 Does habitat creation work? Effect size Sown flower strip Organic farming Grass or naturally regenerating strips Scheper et al. (2013) Ecol. Lett.

28 Conclusions 1. Pollination contributes to food security 2. Climate has already resulted in range losses of bumblebees, and projections indicate greater losses to come 3. Climate will also alter phenologies of pollinators and crops 4. Wide range of potential responses but effectiveness largely untested, but show promise

29 Acknowledgements Sustainable Crop Pollination (Insect Pollinators Initiative) Status and Trends of European Pollinators (STEP) UN Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services More info: