People-Centred Scenario Development

Transcription

1 People-Centred Scenario Development

2 Presentation & exercise Emerging farmer profiles What comes out of the baseline? What comes out of preparatory fieldwork? Scenario building - introduction What is a scenario? How do you develop a scenario Why do we use this approach Scenario building doing it ourselves Exercise: How do we see things 10 years from now? Group work Presentations & Discussions

3 Collecting farmers profiles Why? Assume there is a mismatch between institutional support targeting farmers and farmers different livelihood trajectories, farmers mobility and their aspirations Why? How? Explore farmers ideas on different types of farmers and key determinants What? Open group discussions (2-3 hours): round 1 all farmers (agree on profiles); round 2 sub-groups per profile (understand farmers characteristics & their aspirations) How? What?

4 Fieldwork sites Pilot in 2 communities in Tepa district (Ashanti region) Linked to farmers that supply to AGL (Armajaro/Ecom) and Lindt Cocoa Foundation Fieldwork in 2 communities in Kwaebibirem district (Eastern Region) Linked to PhD fieldwork

5 Contextual findings Ahafo Ano North Ashanti region Only cocoa Strong support structure More LBCs Only production Abunu mainly understood as landsharing Cocoa as main strategy Income diversification as necessity They rely on others Kwaebibirem Eastern Region cocoa & oil-palm No/weak support structure One LBC (PBC) Production & processing Abunu mainly understood as cropsharing Income diversification as strategy They rely on themselves

6 Emerging profiles Tepa Manfo Entrepreneurial farmers Struggling farmers focusing on cocoa Struggling farmers with different sources of income Tepa - Nkyensendanho Landowners Sharecropping as strategy Sharecroppers that desire innovation, but are not yet there Kwae kwaebibirem district Entrepreneurial farmers (diversified income) Landowners Small landowners, with sharecropping Adankrono, Prankese, Asuom kwaebibirem district Farmers mainly into tree crop farming Farmers who have diversified income

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9 Scenarios What is it? a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Different goals e.g. Decision-support exploratory When useful? Scenarios are good tools for communication in interdisciplinary, multi-stakeholder groups about discussing desirable futures

10 Discussing certainties and uncertainties Scenario development requires a clear idea of certainties and uncertainties How? Outcome of a participatory process: gather and discuss wide range of certainties & uncertainties; in complex cases prioritize to set boundaries

11 Forecasting

12 Backcasting

13 Scale + Large-scale & diverse Entrepreneurial Diversity - Owners only cocoa Sharecropping Diversity + Scale -

14 Starting points Backcasting Selection of normative scenario s in participatory way Two axes: scale & diversity Work with certainties and uncertainties related to these two axes Use preliminary profiles as inspiration

15 Aspired scenarios making groups Where do you want to be 10 years from now (look forward, feasible dream )? It can be your vision is about the sector (either cocoa, oil palm or both) It can be about the smallholder It can be about the future landscape It can be about food security It can be a mix

16 Scenario development in groups Step 1 Refining the scenario Elaborate on the aspired future and agree on a name Discuss the main certainties and list and prioritize the uncertainties around scale and diversity Discuss what really needs to change or happen?

17 Step 2 Position people in the scenario Discuss what type(s) of farmer do we see in your scenario, including the labourers? What about the farms? How does the farm look like? How about the environment/landscape in which these people live? What can you say about the resilience of these farmers and food security? Landscape Farm Family Farmer Tip : take time to read preliminary profiles

18 Step 3 Backcasting Where are these people now? What about the farm? Identify the main things that have to change (milestones) Discuss how do we get there? What kind of activities? What are the opportunities & challenges? What type of Value Chain Collaboration supports this change (or hinders it)? And/or what type of new VCC does this change require? Who are the change makers? Or the drivers behind change?

19 Output Visual presentation of each scenario (max 2 flip chart sheets) Present the scenario (max 5 minutes) Discussion (10 minutes)

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21 Presentations Can we plot the scenario s on the matrix Dynamics In & exclusion How do you manage trade-offs Is it useful?