People-Centred Scenario Development Mirjam Ros and Anna Laven

Transcription

1 People-Centred Scenario Development Mirjam Ros and Anna Laven

2 Presentation & exercise Emerging farmer profiles What came out of the workshop with farmers? Scenario building - introduction What is a scenario? How do you develop a scenario? Why do we use this approach? Scenario building doing it ourselves Exercise: How do we see things 10 years from now? Group work Presentations & Discussions

3 Collecting farmers profiles Why? Assume there is a mismatch between institutional support targeting farmers and farmers different livelihood trajectories, farmers mobility and their aspirations Why? How? Explore farmers ideas on different types of farmers and key characteristics What? Open group discussions (2-3 hours): round 1 all farmers (agree on profiles); round 2 sub-groups per profile (understand farmers characteristics & their aspirations) How? What?

4 Emerging profiles in Khumbe, Limpopo Province Commercial/Entrepreneurial farmers Emerging farmers Mixed farmers Small-scale farmers

5 My challenges Finance Feeder / exit roads Access to markets Fair prices / honest buyers. How do I get there? Networking with other farmers Investing in machineries With experience and more knowledge I am still young (in my 30s and Well educated (secondary/tertiary) Own between 7-10 ha Cultivate avo and lychees, My fruit trees are not yet in full production, so I combine with vegetables, livestock, or other jobs I am an innovative farmer Who am I now? MIXED FARMER What do I need? In 10 years time I will be a fulltime, representative and knowledgeable commercial farmer produce more fruits have expanded my farm and use 100% of it Irrigate well and apply modern farming methods be independent (have my own transportation, a borehole for irrigation) be doing well (fancy house, car) Roads, water, experience/knowledge (e.g. how to inject trees, apply fertiliser, management skills) From whom? Government: subsidies (e.g. for tractors), loans, roads, technological support Companies: technological assistance to increase production (e.g. study group, farm visits) Commercial farmers (through farm visits and learning from them) As a group: organise

6 Scenarios What is it? a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Different goals e.g. decision-support exploratory When useful? Scenarios are good tools for communication in multi-stakeholder groups about discussing desirable futures

7 Forecasting

8 Backcasting

9 Scale + Large-scale & diverse Entrepreneurial Diversity - Diversity + Larger-scale & specialised Mixed farmer Scale -

10 Starting points Backcasting Selection of normative scenario s in participatory way Two axes: scale & diversity Work with opportunities and constraints in each scenario

11 Aspired scenarios making groups Where do you want the tree-crop sector to be 10 years from now (look forward, feasible dream )? It can be your vision for the sector (macadamia, avo, llitchy, mixture) It can be about the small-scale farmer It can be about the future landscape It can be about food security and resilience It can be a mix

12 Scenario development in groups How does the desired future for tree crops looks like and agree on a name for your scenario (60 min) How can we get there? Identify opportunities, driving forces, and constraints. Discuss what really needs to change or happen and who can be change makers (45 min) Visualise your scenario for presentation in the plenary (45 min)

13 Output Visual presentation of each scenario (max 2 flip chart sheets) Present the scenario (max 10 minutes) Discussion

14 Discussion Where do the farmer profiles fit in? Is there a scenario for every type of farmer? If there isn t what should be done? What are the implications for interventions and our research?