China Cereals : Market Situation and Outlook

Transcription

1 2013 World Agricultural Outlook Conference Beijing, China 6-7 June 2013 China Cereals : Market Situation and Outlook Li Ganqiong Agricultural Information Institute, CAAS liganqiong@caas.cn

2 Outline Present situation Outlook for 2013/14

3 Continuous growth for Grain Mt production since 2004 Paddy Rice Wheat Maize Following the No.1 Central Document for 2004, all subsequent annual versions have concentrated on Agriculture, Rural Area and Farmers. Average annual growth rate ( ) Paddy Rice: 0.7% Wheat: 1.6% Maize: 5.8% Total grain: 2.1%

4 Grain: consumption growth exceeded production growth With the population growth and China economic development, consumption of agricultural products grows rapidly. At the same time, it has taken great changes for consumption pattern. Increasing demand for animal products resulted in continuous growth of feed use The grain consumption grew at 2.4% p.a. during the period of , compared to production which grew at 2.1% p.a.

5 Paddy rice: consumption growth was slow and it is consumed chiefly as food 100% Paddy Rice (Oct/Sep) 80% 60% Other use 40% Feed use Food use 20% 0%

6 2000/ / / / / / / / / / / / /13 Sharp increase for wheat feed use in recent two years Wheat (July/June) 100% 80% 60% Other use 40% Feed use Food use 20% 0%

7 2000/ / / / / / / / / / / / /13 Soaring demand for maize Maize feed use is about 60% of total consumption Industrial use for maize is over 30% of total consumption Mt Maize 100% 80% 60% Maize (Oct/Sep) % 20% 0% Other use Feed use Food use

8 China has become net grain importer since 2009/10 Grain (rice, wheat and maize) imports and exports imports exports 2010/11 2, /12 10,111 1, /13* 10, * 为估计数值

9 Sharp increase for rice import during the period of 2011/ /13 Variety demand Variety demand Feed demand

10 Ⅱ Outlook for 2013/14

11 Paddy rice production to increase in 2013/14 on larger sown areas NBS(National Bureau of Statistics):planting intensions survey from domestic 90,000 farmers show that sown areas for paddy rice will grow 1.0%. MoA: Increasing of minimum purchase price for paddy rice boosts the enthusiasm of farmers. Sown areas will be a little prospect for growth. It is projected the production may reach 206Mt in 2013 with a 1.2% increase over last year.

12 Increase in production exceeds Consumption Rice stocks to hit new historic record level Recent years, Per capita food consumption for rice is relatively stable, about 78kg/y. At present, stock to use ratio for rice remains at a relatively high level, above 60%. Rice stocks will be a little rise for 2013/14. The sharp increasing of rice imports in 2012/13 will not be sustained in next decade.

13 Increase in wheat production matched by consumption for 2013/14 Although wheat sown area for 2013 is stable, it will be a small prospect for production growth due to higher yield. It is projected that yield and production will grow by 1.5% and 1.0% respectively compared with last year. Wheat feed use to decline in 2013/14. But the total consumption still remains a mall increase. wheat imports remains about 2 million for 2013/14, mainly meet demand of variety.

14 Maize production for 2013/14 is projected to increase Maize planting area for 2013 is expected to grow 1.9% compared with last year the production of maize may reach a new historical record with 214 Mt, growing 2.8% over the previous year.

15 Maize: imports continuous expand due to feed demand Increasing imports of maize: China s exports of maize will continue at a very low level, but imports will expand due to feed demand. In short run, maize remains at about 98% self sufficiency. It is projected that maize self sufficiency will drop to 95% in 2020.

16 Summary and Conclusions The supply for cereals appears comfortable in 2013/14, remains at about 98% self sufficiency overall. In the long run, it is a little difficult for the increase of paddy rice areas. Sharp increase of wheat feed use in recent years will not be sustained in next decade yeas. Increasing of Maize imports may be sustained in next decade years due to feed use and soaring industrial demand.