Climate Data, Information and Knowledge for Agricultural Production, Water Resources Management and Food Security

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1 Climate Data, Information and Knowledge for Agricultural Production, Water Resources Management and Food Security Dr Seydou B. TRAORE AGRHYMET Regional Center Niamey, Niger 4th Conference on Climate Change and Development in Africa

2 Outline Background information on CILSS and AGRHYMET The Impact of Climate on Agriculture, Food security and Water Resources Climate data collection and analysis Climate information for Food Security Early Warning Some challenges Ongoing initiatives on climate data management, production and dissemination

3 Background information on CILSS and AGRHYMET CILSS: Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel Created in 1973 at the aftermath of the great Sahel drought 13 member states : Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Côte d Ivoire, The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Togo 3 sites The Executive Secretariat in Ouagadougou (Policy issues) The AGRHYMET Regional Centre in Niamey (Information and Training) The Sahel Institute (INSAH) in Bamako (Research coordination) Mandate: invest itself in research on food security and combat the effects of drought and desertification for a new ecological balance in the Sahel

4 The AGRHYMET Regional Center AGRHYMET: Created in 1974, Mission : to contribute to achieving sustainable food security and rational natural resource management through: Capacity building of member States Meteorological and Hydrological offices (training, equipment and financial support) Production and dissemination of information to various decision makers (national authorities, cooperation partners, NGOs and farmers) 4

5 The AGRHYMET Operating scheme Partners Data and Information Financial and Technical assistance Meteorology Animal Husbandry Hydrology Agriculture AGRHYMET Crop protection ANALYSIS DIFFUSION TRAINING Hydrology DATA COLLECTION AND STORAGE Meteorology Animal husbandry Countries Agriculture Crop protection Satellite Data Cap-Vert Mauritanie Mali Nig er Tchad Ground Observation and Surveys Data Senegal Extension to ECOWAS member countries Gambie G.-B is sau Gui ne e Sierra-Leone Liberia Cote-d'Iv oi re Burkina Benin Gha na Togo Nigeri a

6 The AGRHYMET Training program

7 The AGRHYMET Training program Degree AgroMet Plant Protection Discipline Hydrol ogy Instr. Maint. and Microcomp. TOTAL Technician Engineers Sub Total Masters Concert. Mgt of Natural Resour. Climate Change & Sust. Dvpt Sust. Crop & Env. Protect. Sust. Land Mgt Food Sec. & Nutr Sub Total Grand total 1197

8 The Impact of Climate on Agriculture, Food security and Water Resources

9 The Impact of Climate on Agriculture & Food Security Climate is a «resource» Solar radiation and temperature determine what crop can be grown and where: potential primary production: Water availability (rainfall), together with nutrients and cropping practices determine the attainable production In this regard, statistical analyses of climate data can be used for agricultural planning Climate determine the different agro ecological zones on earth (soils, animal and plant species) 9

10 Influence du climat sur l agriculture Climate is also a «risk factor» Directs effects : droughts, floods, strong winds, colds, seasonal variations (onset, cessation dates and distribution of rains) Indirects effects (pests and diseases) Importance of natural variability than extremes!!!! Up to 80% of the variability of agricultural production can be attributed to the variability of climatic conditions a big difference among developed and non developed countries 10

11 Climate Change and Agriculture Global warming due to increase of the concentration of greenhouse gazes in the atmosphere (various IPCC reports) Still uncertainties about the magnitude and direction of change in rainfall Potential benefits CO2 fertilization for C3 crops, better water use efficiency (WUE) for all crops Longer seasons and more agricultural lands for temperate regions Potential risks Uncertainties on the interactions among different systems (climate, agriculture, demography) and their adaptation capacity Changes in the geographic distribution of climate types, of favorable zones for different pests and diseases, lost of agricultural land Change in the frequency of extremes events Developing countries are the most vulnerable 11

12 Climate data collection and analysis

13 Climate data collection and analysis in-situ rainfall measurement network AGRHYMET regional rainfall network includes 700 rain gauges in total from which 300 are used in near-real time for the agricultural campaign monitoring (80 synoptic) 13

14 Climate data collection and analysis in-situ hydrological measurement network hydrometric station Around 250 hydrometric stations

15 Climate data collection and analysis Historical data analysis Displacement of isohyets: 200 km to the south Isohyets in mm Grey strips: Red lines : Blue lines : Bamako 1000 mm 830 mm - 17% Niamey 640 mm 490 mm - 23% 15

16 Climate data collection and analysis Historical data analysis Persistence of dry years Persistence of wet years Rapid Shift from wet to dry years and vice versa Years Ali et al. (2008)

17 Climate data collection and analysis Onset dates of the season Historical data analysis Isoligne moyenne de début de saiosn pour la période Isoligne moyenne de début de saiosn pour la période = 30 avril 140 = 20 mai 160 = 09 juin 180 = 29 juin 200 = 19 juillet Cessation dates of the season Isoligne moyenne de fin de saison pour la période = 02 sept 260 = 17 sept 275 = 02 oct 290 = 17 oct Isoligne moyenne de fin de saison pour la période

18 Frequency Climate data collection and analysis Historical data analysis Dry spells >10 days at Maradi Décades 18

19 Climate data collection and analysis Optimal sowing dates for different crops

20 Climate change studies

21 Climate change studies Minimum Temperature Sahelian zone MaximumTemperature Sudanian zone 21

22 Climate change studies Evaluation of Climate Models (GCMs) 22

23 Climate change studies Impacts on Crop Yields IR % par rapport à A0 A2 B Yields decrease as we go further into the century because of higher temperatures Some increase during the early part of the century because of the C02 fertilization effect (C3 crop) 23 23

24 Climate change studies Impacts on Water resources CCMA A2 UKMO A2 GISS A2 GFDL B1 Scenarios of monthly discharges at the 2030 horizon. The red dots correspond to deficit and the black dots to increased discharges 24

25 Food Security Early Warning

26 Food Security Early Warning Agricultural Campaign Monitoring Seasonal forecast of rainfall and maximum river discharges Dekadal briefings to closely monitor the situation Identification of zones where rainfall conditions allowed sowing Focus on zones with late sowing relatively to the average date Crop water requirement satisfaction indices Vegetation indices derived from EO satellites (NDVI, VCI, ICN) Status of crop pests and diseases Prediction of potential crop yields using crop models Publication of Monthly and Special alert bulletins 26

27 Food Security Early Warning Seasonal forecasts Cumulative rainfall Maximum river discharges 27

28 Food Security Early Warning Seasonal forecasts Onset dates of the rainy season

29 Food Security Early Warning Seasonal forecasts Cessation dates of the rainy season

30 DAKAR BANJUL Food Security Early Warning NIAMEY BAMAKO OUAGA NDJAMENA BISSAU. postes pluviométriques utilisés Rainfall : ground measurements Figure 1.4 : Cumuls pluviométriques saisonniers du 1er mai au 30 septembre 2006 au Sahel très déficitaire déficitaire équivalent excédentaire très excédentaire -5000% 45% 85% 115% 165% et plus 5000% NOUAKCHOTT DAKAR BANJUL NIAMEY BISSAU BAMAKO OUAGA NDJAMENA Figure 1.5 : Comparaison en pourcents des cumuls pluviométriques saisonniers du 1er mai au 30 septembre 2006 à celles de l'année 2005 au Sahel 30

31 Food Security Early Warning Rainfall: Satellite Estimation 31

32 Food Security Early Warning River discharges and dam water levels 32

33 Food Security Early Warning Crop growing conditions (agrometeorological models) Starting dates of the season Crop Water Requirement Satisfaction Indices 33

34 Another Sahel is possible! Food Security Early Warning Vegetation indices : ICN 31st July st August 2009

35 Food Security Early Warning Synthesis Map based on spot Vegetation NDVI derived indices : ICN, VCI, sndvi as at 30th august

36 Food Security Early Warning Crop pests and diseases 36

37 Food Security Early Warning Crop yields forecast (agrometeorological models) 37

38 Food Security Early Warning Comité permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Sècheresse dans le Sahel Permanent Inter-State Committee For Drought Control in the Sahel Centre Régional AGRHYMET bulletin de suivi de la campagne agropastorale en afrique de l ouest Bulletin spécial N 01 - Mai 2013 Prévision des caractéristiques Agro-Hydro-Climatiques de la campagne d hivernage 2013 en Afrique de l Ouest, au Tchad et au Cameroun Centre Régional AGRHYMET Bulletin spécial Cadre Harmonisé d analyse et d identification des zones à risque et des populations vulnérables au Sahel et en Afrique de l Ouest Insécurité alimentaire en Afrique de l Ouest - Mars 2013 Insécurité alimentaire critique (phase 3 ou plus) dans le nord du Mali

39 Assistance to farmers and herders

40 Assistance to herders APEL-ZP Union of herders, Tahoua region, Niger 40

41 Assistance to herders NDVI map indicating areas with good pastures Tchirozerine Tassara In Gall Tillia Tchikolanene NWagar Ingighran Tchin Tabaraden Tofaminir Tamaya Aderbissinat Abalak Tahoua CSP 2004 Unité GRN 41

42 Communication of Seasonal Forecast Results to Farmers

43 Communication Workshops with Users AGRHYMET/CCAFS Partnership Produce and disseminate climate information adapted to users (farmers) needs Identify and disseminate adaptation strategies to Climate Variability and Climate Change Organize national communication workshops with users at the different CCAFS benchmark sites.

44 Communication Workshops with Users CCAFS benchmark sites in West Africa Burkina Faso : Tougou (Yatenga province) Mali : Cinzana (Ségou region) Ghana : Lawra and Jirapa (Upper-West region) Niger : Dantiandou (Tillaberi Fakara region,)

45 Communication Workshops With Users 2-day workshops at each site after PRESAO 1 st day : workshop with extension officers Political and administrative authorities, technical staff from extension services (agriculture, livestock breeding, forestry), rural development NGOs, local medias (television, radios, newspapers) 2 nd day: workshop with farmers

46 Communication Workshops With Users With extension workers What forecasts do say? Probabilities of seasonal cumulative rainfall being above, equivalent or below the 30-year average What forecasts do not say? Rainfall distribution during the season (dry/wet spells, early/late onset, or cessation) Forecasts are about rainfall quantities, not the quality of the season, nor of the expected yields Emphasis on the probabilistic nature of forecasts: a category may have the highest probability to occur, but this does not mean that the others categories are not likely to happen

47 Communication Workshops With Users With extension workers The concept of normal : average of the last 30 years Location Normal ( ) Average Last 10 years Average Last 5 years Niamey Ouagadougou Bamako Dakar

48 Communication Workshops With Users With farmers Discussion on Indigenous methods of seasonal forecast Their forecast for the upcoming season Presentation of the results of the current PRESAO results Discussions and consensus building around the current year forecast Working groups to define management strategies to adopt with regards to the consensus forecast Plenary session to come up with recommendations for the e upcoming season Evaluation of the forecasts and the outcomes of the season after the end of rains

49 Communication Workshops With Users Ouahigouya Burkina Faso

50 Communication Workshops With Users Cinzana Mali

51 Communication Workshops With Users Jirapa, Ghana

52 Communication Workshops With Users Dantiandou, Niger

53 Communication Workshops With Users Presentation of working groups discussion summaries

54 Communication Workshops With Users Summary of the discussions with farmers When the likelihood of water constraint is minimal, they take the opportunity to intensify By applying more inputs (manure, mineral fertilizers, labor, vaccination of animals, etc ) By privileging high yielding crop species/varieties (improved seeds, swamp rice, maize, long duration millet and sorghum varieties) By reducing cropped areas to allow for better management

55 Challenges Communication with users Forecast precisions Probabilistic nature Demand for localized forecasts (at village or even farm level) Temporal distribution (start, end, dry/wet spells) Interpretation of the forecasts

56 Africa wide, Challenges the number of gauges have declined significantly in recent decades R. Maidment, 2014, TAMSAT Group Drastic decline in the number of rain gauge data transmitted through WMO GTS

57 Challenges Optimized rainfall Observation Network with 10 percent error Monthly at 2.5 x 2.5 An additional 568 stations needed Dekadal at 1 x 1 An additional 1700 stations needed 57

58 Ongoing initiatives Use of satellite products Cumulative Rainfall May 2014 July 2014 Source AGRHYMET AMESD/MESA e-station 58

59 Ongoing initiatives Use of satellite products Rainfall anomalies May 2014 July 2014 Source AGRHYMET AMESD/MESA e-station 59

60 Ongoing initiatives Use of satellite products Rainfall and vegetation indices profiles per administrative units Source AGRHYMET AMESD/MESA e-station

61 Ongoing initiatives Blending Satellite and Ground based products Organize training workshops on: Climate Database Management Quality Control of station data Blending satellite and ground based products (rainfall, temperature, radiation, etc ) Generating climate time series of blended products Use of the time series for various applications 61

62 Ongoing initiatives Blending Satellite and Ground based products 62

63 Ongoing initiatives ACCIC project: Improve the management and analysis capabilities of ground measurement and satellite derived hydro-climatic data Improve the production of hydro-climatic information Improve the dissemination of hydro-climatic information for a better adaptation to climate change Use of cell phones to collect crop and climate data and transmit advisories to farmers via SMS messages Use of local radio stations to disseminate agrometeorological information in local languages

64 Ongoing initiatives CLIDATA Database management software ISACIP and CCAFS projects on Data quality control workshops IRI data library ACCIC project on good quality data Merging Satellite and ground observations rainfall data AMESD / MESA, SIGMA projects on EO data WMO ECOWAS Regional Climate Center Network.. Looking forward to contribute to CR4D goals

65 Thank you for your attention