NOVEMBER 2017 USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND ESTIMATES. Overview

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1 NOVEMBER 2017 USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND ESTIMATES Overview Corn: This month s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook included larger production, increased feed use and exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at billion bushels, up 298 million from last month on a record-high yield. Feed and residual use was increased 75 million bushels based on a larger crop. Exports were raised 75 million bushels, reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness, reduced exports out of Ukraine, and increased demand from Mexico based on lower sorghum production prospects. Corn ending stocks were increased 147 million bushels from last month to billion bushels. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged with a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel. Soybeans: Soybean production was forecast at billion bushels, down 5 million due to a fractionally lower yield. With use unchanged, soybean ending stocks are projected at 425 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $9.30 per bushel, up 10 cents at the midpoint. Soybean production for Brazil was increased 1 million tons to 108 million on higher reported area. Argentina s production was unchanged at 57 million tons. Soybean imports for China were increased 2 million to 97 million metric tons. Long-Grain Rice: U.S. long-grain production was reduced by 200,000 cwt. this month on lower Louisiana and Texas yields. However, lower production was offset by an increase in imports and a 1 million cwt. drop in exports. The U.S. average long-grain price per bushel was reduced by 9 cents to $5.54 per bushel. This year s long-grain production is expected to be the smallest since 2011/12. Ending stocks were increased to 16.5 million cwt. Cotton: This month s 2017/18 U.S. cotton estimates included higher production and ending stocks, as a smaller crop in the West was more than offset by gains in the Southwest and other regions. While the U.S. production forecast was increased by 1 percent, to 21.4 million bales, domestic mill use and exports were unchanged. U.S. ending stocks are now estimated 300,000 bales higher at 6.1 million bales. The marketing-year average price received by producers is forecast at 63 cents per pound, 3 cents above the October estimate.

2 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION billion bu U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION billion bu.

3 U.S. LONG-GRAIN RICE PRODUCTION million cwt U.S. COTTON PRODUCTION million bales

4 U.S. CORN YIELD bushels per acre U.S. SOYBEAN YIELD bushels per acre

5 U.S. LONG-GRAIN RICE YIELD pounds per acre U.S. COTTON YIELD pounds per acre

6 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS billion bu U.S. SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS million bu.

7 U.S. LONG-GRAIN RICE ENDING STOCKS million cwt U.S. COTTON ENDING STOCKS million bales

8 U.S. Average Producer Price, 2016/17 and Forecast 2017/ / /18 forecast Corn $3.36 $3.20 Soybeans $9.47 $9.30 Long-Grain Rice $4.34 / bu. $5.54 / bu. Southern Medium-Grain $4.55 / bu. $5.63 / bu. Cotton Wheat $3.89 $4.60 Grain Sorghum $2.79 $3.10 Source: USDA, November The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services without regard to race, color, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, or any other legally protected status, and is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.