MOZAMBIQUE FOOD SECURITY UPDATE AUGUST 2005

Transcription

1 CONTENTS MOZAMBIQUE FOOD SECURITY UPDATE AUGUST 2005 SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY Food security summary...1 Drought mitigation action plan...2 River and dam levels...3 kets and maize prices in selected markets...4 Climate update...4 An update from provincial SETSAN representatives reveals that the food security situation has not deteriorated any further in areas assessed by VAC/CFSAM in il and. However, household food security in some districts in the northern region may deteriorate, despite the positive outlook three months ago. Close monitoring is required to evaluate the severity of food insecurity in those districts and recommend appropriate interventions. Because of the food aid pipeline shortfall, the results of the planned nutrition assessment may be used to prioritize the food assistance in drought affected areas. If no rain comes, reduced water resources could affect both consumption and agriculture activities. SEASONAL TIMELINE CURRENT HAZARD SUMMARY Reduced water availability as the hydrological drought continues in parts of the south and center. Maize prices are increasing rapidly. FOOD SECURITY SUMMARY An update from the provincial representatives of SETSAN reveals that the food security situation has not deteriorated further. However, some areas in the north that were not previously considered to be food insecure may become at risk in October. These areas include parts of Niassa, Nampula and Tete provinces as indicated below. To respond to the current situation households are employing diversified coping mechanisms, and some interventions are ongoing. Brief statements by province are as follows: Figure 1: District with identified needs and likely needs from October onwards. In Niassa, household food security in the southern districts (of Mecanhelas, Majune, and Mecula) may deteriorate because of reduced production due to poor rainfall and animal plague. Majune is the most critical district, and poor households there have reduced the number of daily meals to one. It is expected that households may face three to six months food shortages. In other places, households are consuming foods other than maize, the staple, and relying on ganho-ganho (casual labor) as an income source. In Nampula, in the northern coastal region (districts of Memba, Nacala Velha, Nacala and Mossuril), the risk of food insecurity is high from October onwards. In other regions however, the food availability and access should be adequate until the next harvest. Levels of acute food insecurity are low, but high levels of chronic malnutrition prevail. A shortage of potable water is contributing to the incidence diarrhea diseases in those districts. Address : Av. Das FPLM, 2698 Pavilhão Novo, INIA Maputo, Mozambique FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development Fax: Tel: mind@fews.net

2 In Sofala, the second season is progressing well. The food security situation remains moderate and has not deteriorated further. There are signs of increasing maize prices, but food access remains adequate. The second cropping season in Manica mainly produces vegetables. In districts of Guro, Macossa, Machaze and Tambara, production is below normal and last year. In other districts, the season is progressing well. In the semi-arid interior zone of Manica Province, food prices are rising and market access is poor. In Machaze and Macossa, despite the ongoing school feeding programs, school children are dropping out as the parents search for other places to resettle. In Tete, the second season failed in the southern districts, due primarily to the lack of rains and humidity. Poor households frequently have one meal and are intensifying their consumption of wild foods in Magoe and Zumbo districts in particular. In the northern districts of Tete, the food security situation and the growing conditions are much better. The food security conditions in the interior of Inhambane have not changed, and there are localized cases of malnutrition. Households are adapting to the situation employing varied copping strategies. The seasonality of fruits and cassava in the province are attenuating food shortages. The second season is ongoing and doing reasonably well in the in southern coastal areas. In Gaza, second season is progressing reasonably well, and new planting is taking place, particularly in the southern and coastal areas. Vegetables are now being consumed and sold. Conditions in the semi -arid interior zone and northern zone districts are critical, and water shortages for both human and animals remains a concern. Poor households often have only one meal per day. In Maputo, the second season is progressing well only in areas under irrigation by private farmers and farmers associations. Most of the population s farms are rain fed. For them, second season production is poor due to lack of moisture. Although prices are varied and increasing, households continue to benefit from good market access. The Ministry of Health, in collaboration with UNICEF, is planning a nutrition assessment in the drought affected areas. The exercise will take place in September, and the results are expected in late October. As WFP resources are limited and more needs arise, the results of the assessment will improve targeting and setting priorities. ACTION PLAN TO MITIGATE DROUGHT EFFECTS The Ministry of Agriculture (MINAG) and the Technical Secretariat of Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) with support of FAO have developed a preliminary and urgent mitigation action plan. The purpose of the action plan is to establish basic means to overcome the adverse drought conditions by improving the ability of households to cope and adapt, based on local recommendations. Although the plan does not contemplate direct food assistance, some activities will be implemented through food for work and other intervention programs in coordination with local authorities. Due to financial and time constrains, the action plan mission has only visited 36 districts out of 59 districts identified by the mission from the agriculture perspective (Table 1). Thus, during the first phase, the mitigating activities described in the action plan will only cover the 36 Table 1. Vulnerable districts identified by mission and actual districts covered by the action plan Province Identified Actual covered Maputo 7 5 Gaza 10 5 Inhambane 11 6 Manica 3 8 Sofala 12 3 Tete 7 4 Zambézia 9 5 Total Source: SETSAN districts. The rest of the districts will be covered in the second phase if funds become available. The mitigating activities will directly cover 171,591 households and an additional 395,812 indirectly. The total estimated cost to implement the action plan from August 2005 through ch 2006 is USD 2,053,947. According to the mitigation plan report, USD 517,308 is part of the Annual Budget Activity Plan (PAAO) and USD 400,000 is through the government special fund. There is still a gap of around USD 1,136,640. Efforts are underway to guarantee the full coverage of indicated activities. The action plan is oriented mostly to provide basic conditions that will allow households to carry out small scale activities to mitigate the current drought situation in the short, medium and long term. Table 2 lists the identified activities to be carried out by the action plan. More action plan details are available through SETSAN. Page 2 of 5

3 Table 2. Main activities to be carried out under the implementation of the action plan 1 Vegetative material 13 Foment of animal traction 2 Input fairs 14 Pasture management 3 Agro-pastoral fairs 15 Milk production 4 Horticulture 16 Pisciculture 5 Local seed production 17 ior farm school (JFFLS) 6 Fruit production 18 School kitchen-garden 7 Irrigation systems 19 Nutrition and HIV/AIDS 8 Use of lowlands 20 Improved barns 9 Construction of small dams and water reservoir 21 Hunger alert dossier (FAF) 10 Irrigation management 22 Combat against plagues and diseases 11 Veterinary assistance 23 Agrarian shop 12 Foment of Animal breeding 2004/05 RAINFALL DEFICITS AFFECT SOUTHERN RIVERS Source: SETSAN Rainfall totals for the 2004/05 rainy season were less than half of the normal across much of southern Mozambique. This anomaly has affected the Incomati, Umbeluzi and Maputo river basins, which are major suppliers of water for both rural and urban consumers. Significant portions of the Limpopo River Basin have also been affected. Figure 2. Hydrometric levels in meters at selected measuring stations / /05 Umbeluzi Incomati Limpopo Save Source: ARA-Sul These rainfall deficits have raised concerns over water shortages across the region. According to data from the ARA- Sul, water levels in all southern rivers are lower than in 2003/04. As seen in Figure 2, the trend of the river levels is continuously declining. The dams are also much below the last year levels. Table 3 shows the situation in the Massingir dam in the Limpopo River. While the average percentage of stored water during the ch to e period in 2003/4 was 85 percent of the total volume, the average for the same period this year is only 28 percent. According to officials in some southern districts, especially in Maputo Province, the water shortage is beginning to directly affect people s lives. Latest information from ARA-Sul indicates that water levels are almost at the critical stage where, for example at Massingir dam, Table 3. Massingir dam water level in meters Source: ARA-Sul Period 2003/04 % ( SV ) 2004/05 % ( SV ) Average %(SV) - Percent of stored volume Page 3 of 5

4 upstream flow into the dam is null and downstream water supply from the dam is below requirements. Water authorities fear that if no rain comes until September, implications on water supply into the Chókwe irrigation system, the major one in the country, may be seriously affected. CONTINUING INCREASE IN MAIZE PRICES Maize prices are increasing rapidly, following an abnormal trend. Figure 3 shows that y maize prices were much higher than average prices and last year s prices. In Xai-Xai, y maize prices were 19 percent higher than average and 30 higher than last year. In Chókwe, y prices were 29 percent higher than average and 38 percent higher than last year. In Maxixe, prices were 35 percent higher than average and 15 percent higher than last year. In Maputo, they were 7 percent higher than average and 23 percent higher than last year. Figure 3. Monthly Retail Maize Prices in Selected kets Average Xai-Xai Chókwe Maxixe Maputo Source: SIMA The latest SIMA weekly bulletin indicates a tendency of price increases at all different transaction levels (producer, wholesale and retail), especially for maize. Prices of beans and groundnuts are still relatively stable, with small fluctuations. FIRST SEASONAL OUTLOOK: SARCOF 9 TO BE IN SEPTEMBER The SADC Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) and partners are organizing the Ninth Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-9), in Harare, Zimbabwe, 7 8 September SARCOF-9 is organized by DMC-Harare, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and World Health Organization (WHO) in collaboration with the United States Agency for International Development, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Office of Global Programs (NOAA/OGP), the Department of Meteorological Services of Zimbabwe and other partners. The main objective of SARCOF-9 is to develop a consensus climate outlook for October 2005 to ch 2006 rainfall season. The forum will also discuss the potential impacts of the consensus climate outlook on other socio-economic sectors, including health, disaster risk management, water resources and hydropower management, among others. The forum will also review the October 2004 to ch 2005 rainy season over the SADC region. Based on the climate outlook, users will be able to prepare their respective contingency plans. These plans may cover different areas such as agriculture, disaster management, health strategies (especially on malaria control programs) and food security as a whole. In the past year some parts of central and southern Mozambique had experienced prolonged drought conditions. However, the newly updated information from the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) indicates that sea surface temperatures across most of the equatorial Pacific are somewhat above average, but neutral in terms of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is 75 percent likely that neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) will prevail over the -Aug-Sep 2005 season. Historically, in Page 4 of 5

5 Mozambique, a stronger El Niño is related to dryer than normal conditions, while a strong La Niña is associated with wetter than normal conditions. Mixed conditions may occur during a neutral or weaker El Niño or La Niña. Page 5 of 5