Opportunities and challenges for rural areas in the context of climate change: a comparison of Ethiopia and Scotland.

Transcription

1 Opportunities and challenges for rural areas in the context of climate change: a comparison of Ethiopia and Scotland Simon.Anderson@iied.org

2 Contents Observed and projected impacts and effects on rural populations and areas How are Ethiopia and Scotland responding? Different starting points for rural climate resilience How to construct climate resilience in rural areas from different starting points Conclusions good news and reality checks

3 Climate effects in Ethiopia and Scotland Ethiopia Scotland (from 1960s baseline) Av. temperatures increased for all seasons for all regions by between ºC, statistically significant trend for spring, summer and autumn. Length of winter cold spells reduced by 7.5 days across Scotland, statistically significant. Length of summer heat waves increased by 5.5 days across Scotland, not statistically significant. Spring and autumn rainfall increased by 23% and 25% respectively for Scotland, statistically significant. Snow cover has decreased for all seasons and regions, reflecting a shortening of the snow season. Autumn 77% reduced snow cover, statistically significant.

4 Ethiopia s response Context Economic growth at 7% per annum. Estimated 70m people in smallholder farming. Climate Resilient Green Economy strategy carbon neutral, middle income status before Improving crop and livestock production for food security and farmer income, while reducing emissions Protecting and re establishing forests for their economic and ecosystem services, incl.as carbon stocks Expanding electric power generation from renewable sources fivefold over the next five years Leapfrogging to modern and energy efficient technologies in transport, industry, and buildings

5 Ethiopia s agricultural development for food security and climate resilience Strategy shaped by the experience of the1980 s famine Mass mobilization for soil + water conservation using watershed management approaches Large scale investments in agricultural extension and sub national research centres wide spread use of farmer participatory research Agriculture key sector for Growth and Transformation Programme Ministry of Agriculture first to develop CRGE sector strategy Fast Track implementation based on S+W conservation measures

6 Laid before the Scottish Parliament under Section 53 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, May 2014, SG/2014/83 Climate Change Risk Assessment for Scotland >130 impacts from climate change facing Scotland up until 2100 Current action on adaptation Develop evidence base ClimateXChange adaptation research programme; Develop adaptive capacity Adaptation Scotland help to organisations, business and communities (Nov 2014) Policy specific actions e.g. Scottish Flood Forum awareness of flood risk and supporting those affected.

7 Scotland s Adaptation programme

8 Climate adaptation keeping ahead of the impacts curve, but starting from different places Scotland Ethiopia

9 Climate resilience in the rural environment special characteristics Natural resource dependent livelihoods agriculture, biodiversity and natural environment, tourism More costly public service provision and greater reliance of transport and communications Less accessibility for relief services extreme events Limited willingness of private sector to invest in infrastructure distance to markets, available work force Less public awareness of policy issues Conservative political links and traditional power issues Common property resource issues require well organised collective action Stronger gender and generation differentiation

10 Age differentiation in rural areas of Scotland % of population over 65 years old in 2013 Source Zsamboky etal Impacts of climate change on disadvantaged coastal communities Aberdeen Edinburgh Glasgow

11 Scotland areas of social deprivation. Source Zsamboky etal Impacts of climate change on disadvantaged coastal communities

12 Economic reasons to invest in rural climate resilience Transmission factors mean that climate effects in rural areas affect wider economy Land a substantive resource for wealth creation Agriculture a driver of economic growth alongside other rural enterprises tourism, whiskey etc. Ecosystem services important for urban areas water, food, biomass Provides employment opportunities that relieves pressures on urban areas Heritage, culture and identity

13 Successful adaptation in rural areas of Scotland Source Zsamboky etal Impacts of climate change on disadvantaged coastal communities

14 Climate adaptation keeping ahead of the impacts curve, but starting from different places Ethiopia

15 How to construct rural climate resilience in least developed countries radical adaptation 1 Diagnosis High correlation between poverty and climate vulnerability Climate resilience delivered through fragmented projects Climate resilience investments insignificant compared to social development and poverty reduction investments High degree of internal migration due in part to environmental change factors gender and generation inequity in costs and benefits distribution Declining agricultural productivity threatens national food security

16 How to construct rural climate resilience in least developed countries radical adaptation 2 Scaled up solutions Invest in second cities so migration an effective adaptation strategy for households Invest in in situ adaptation to strengthen agriculture based livelihoods Align social protection with climate resilience to capture synergies

17 Characteristics of CPR collective action adaptation Conditions for adaptation collective action Stakeholders agree on need for collective action and shared responsibility for outcomes Reliable and frequent information about the effects of increased climatic variability and change Stakeholders know who has agreed to governance of collective action and conformance monitored Accessible and clear communication among stakeholders on a regular basis Attributes of the case study [All activities involve representatives of marginalised groups incl. women headed households, poorest, young and elderly] Climate resilience assessments carried out with communities. Co design of local climate adaptation planning and implementation processes. Governance agreed and local committees established through a transparent nomination and vetting procedure. Kenya Met Dept. provides seasonal forecasts, climate change awareness information and early warning information of extreme events. Local radio station being established to disseminate this information more widely and in a timely way. Town hall meetings (Barazas) held where representatives of communities present and members of Ward planning committees presented. Local NGO monitors process in all Wards and issues reports to stakeholders. Regular meetings held at Ward and County levels to socialise information on progress of processes.

18 Conclusions the good news Both Ethiopia and Scotland are taking progressive steps towards achieving climate resilience. Ethiopia has embraced a low carbon economic growth model while aligning climate resilience to food security and poverty reduction. These objectives are closely allied to development of rural areas. Scotland has put in place climate legislation, and in response to that, the Govt has ambitious targets for reducing emissions and steps for climate adaptation. The adaptation programme s objectives for climate ready natural environment, infrastructure and networks, and society prioritise rural people and places.

19 Conclusions reality check Climate change impacts can only escalate from here and responses need to keep pace. The rural environment and the people who live there face some of the severest challenges from climate change. The demands of rural populations have less echo in the corridors of political power. Centralisation and top down decision making are the enemy of location specific climate resilience planning.