MALAWI Food Security Update February 2010

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1 The 2009/2010 growing season, which will end with the March harvest, remains favorable except for about 275,000 food insecure people in Balaka, Zomba, Nsanje, and Chikwawa districts. Currently, the government, in partnership with WFP and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), is distributing free food aid to about 147,000 people in all the affected districts, except Zomba. Local vendors continue to sell maize at prices lower than ADMARC s MK52 per kilogram. Analysis of the seasonal progress shows there will be many areas with food deficits before the April 2010 harvest. The most affected areas are the Lower and Middle Shire, and along the lakeshore. Food deficits will arise due to the extended dry spell. Most households in the Lower Shire will have no summer harvest at all. Figure 1. Current food security conditions, January 2010 Round one of national crop production estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MoAFS) are due in a few weeks. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) plans to conduct a food security assessment in March and MoAFS is currently assessing the impacts of the extended dry spells on the 2010 harvests. These reports will provide the necessary information for government and other food security stakeholders in Malawi to start early food assistance programs in Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline Source: FEWS NET For more information on FEWS NET s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Malawi- Tel: jbwirani@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 Food security overview Current food security conditions remain favorable in the whole country except for Nsanje and Chikwawa districts in the Lower Shire livelihood zone and parts of Balaka and Zomba districts in the Middle Shire livelihood zone that experienced localized production failures due to prolonged dry spells in the 2008/2009 production season. The government is supporting 147,492 food insecure people in Nsanje, Chikwawa and Balaka districts identified through the vulnerability assessment system implemented by the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) in June MVAC, in its updated vulnerability assessment exercise conducted in November 2009, identified an additional 127,676 food insecure people, thereby resulting in a total of 275,168 food insecure people who need to be supported with food assistance. The Malawi government provided maize for food aid distribution but did not have the funds to deliver the food to the affected communities; WFP has provided the funds for operational costs and is delivering the food through its operational partners. To date, the food assistance program only covers 147,492 food insecure people and leaves out 127,676 food insecure people. Current data from Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security show that the Shire Valley Agricultural Development Division (ADD), where Nsanje and Chikwawa districts are located, has about 25 percent of people who are unable to rely on own produced food while Machinga ADD, where Zomba and Balaka districts are located, has 16 percent of the population unable to rely on own produced food. The rest of the MoAFS ADDs reported less than 10 percent of the population relying on own produced food in January The National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) has about 140,000 MT in the silos and another will be available through a 30,000 MT in tendering process currently underway. ADMARC has about 45,000 MT in its markets spread across the country. The Grain Traders and Processors Association will still have about 48,000 MT after selling 30,000 MT to NFRA. This means that within Malawi, the government can mobilize about 263,000 MT for humanitarian responses before the next harvest, when necessary. Parliament approved MK950 million (about US$6.3 million) to purchase maize for distribution to people affected by droughts and about 5,000 households affected by a series of earthquakes in Karonga in northern Malawi in December 2009; this will allow the purchase of 16,000 MT to 19,000 MT, which can easily be sourced within Malawi before the next harvest. Unconditional food aid currently underway in the districts mentioned above is set to be completed in March Most households in southern Malawi that were hardest hit by the dry spells are unlikely to produce any green harvest, which usually provide some respite just before harvest in a normal year. The lack of access to green harvest will lead to earlier onset of hunger for many households. Of solace is the fact that maize is readily available in all local markets at prices lower than the ADMARC price of MK52 per kilogram. Informal cross border reports indicate that substantial quantities of maize are being imported from Mozambique at favorable prices. Seasonal progress After a six week spate of dry spells in most of southern Malawi, heavy rainfall has started falling from the first week of February 2010, thereby prompting many farmers to replant. There is no chance that such late planted crops will reach maturity, even if rains continue until the end of March, when rains normally finish in most parts of Malawi. Rainfall data from the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) reports show that the Lower Shire and lakeshore areas received rainfall amounts below 74 percent of the long term average between October 1, 2009 and January 31, This has resulted in failed crop germination and crop establishment. This also resulted in failed crop management activities like fertilizer applications. Some seasonal activities, such as weeding and fertilizer application, which provide labor opportunities, have been suspended, thereby affecting poor people who rely on the sale of own labor for cash or in kind payment. The agriculture input subsidy program for the 2009/2010 production year ended in early February. However, there are several issues that need to be sorted out: Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 o o While the distribution of subsidy coupons was reported to have been timely in all districts, the actual supply of subsidized inputs has been inadequate in most depots. This includes legume seed and some types of fertilizers. Some ADMARC selling points were undersupplied with the subsidized inputs while other depots were oversupplied. Some people have had to travel as far as 30 kms to access the subsidized inputs, which may discourage some farmers from participating in the program. There is also a risk that poor farmers will sell their coupons to richer farmers who can afford transport to these further away depots. Key food sources for the Lower Shire and implications of the drought The extended dry spells in the Lower Shire will result in no harvest at all for all summer crops, including maize, sorghum, millet, and cotton in the livelihood zone. This will also mean limited incomes as a result of no casual labor opportunities for poor household members who rely on working in the gardens of richer households. A winter crop that contributes about 9 percent of all food consumed in the year for poor households may be realized in September after winter cultivation. A number of assessments are lined up in the next two months to inform food security programming decision makers in a timely manner. The First Round Agriculture Production Estimates are due for release in a few weeks. The results should reflect the impacts of the drought on all crops through the end of January 2010 for the whole country. FEWSNET, in partnership with MoAFS, WFP, and FAO will conduct a national crop situation assessment in the whole country to determine the extent of the damage caused in the different parts of the country. The report is due at the end of February It is also likely that the MVAC will conduct an early food security and livelihoods assessment due by the end of March 2010, which will determine numbers and extent of food insecurity in different parts of the country at harvest time. Table 1. Summary of rainfall this growing season Since the extended dry spells in the Lower Shire livelihood zone have followed previous dry spells in the same area in previous seasons, and many people in the affected areas may not harvest any crop at all, then it is necessary for the government to extend food assistance support to the affected communities, with more attention given to the households who will not harvest any summer crops at all. Rainfall data shows that by January 31, 2010, southern Malawi and the lakeshore areas have received cumulative rainfall below 74 percent of long term averages for the areas as shown in Table 1. It is likely that summer harvests in these areas will be substantially reduced and will lead to a larger number of food insecure households in the 2010 consumption year. Source: Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) Markets and trade Maize prices have mainly stayed below the ADMARC price of MK52 per kilogram. In the affected parts of the south, the average was MK47.96 in all monitored markets in January, ranging from MK41.24 at the Ntaja market to MK56.68 at the Mangochi market. Only two maize markets, Mangochi and Bangula, recorded prices above the ADMARC price. In Central region, prices averaged MK44.34, ranging from MK37.08 at Mponela Market to MK60.87 at Mtakataka market. Only two out of 24 markets recorded maize prices above the ADMARC prices of MK52 per kilogram. In northern Malawi, maize prices averaged MK42.55 per kilogram, with a range of MK27.69per kilogram at Hewe market and MK59.50 per kilogram at Karonga market. Only two markets reported maize prices above the ADMARC price of MK52 per kilogram. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 The government has announced farm gate prices for Maize minimum buying price will be MK35 per kilogram, a drop of 13 percent from MK40 per kilogram in Cotton prices have been pegged at MK52 per kilogram, a 20 percent drop from MK60 per kilogram that the government announced after the initial price of Mk75 per kilogram was rejected by cotton buyers in Farmer representatives participated in the process of developing these minimum farm gate prices and it is expected that there will be no marketing problems in the 2010 marketing season. Informal cross border trade, especially in maize from Mozambique, continues to make maize available in most parts of southern Malawi at lower prices compared to ADMARC prices. This will continue to provide some respite for food insecure households which may have occasional access to income from labor or sale of animals. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 ANNEX: Malawi Monthly Price Bulletin February 2010 Maize, rice, and cassava are the most important food commodities. Markets selected represent the entire geographic length of the country: two markets in each of the north, center, and south. In the north, Karonga is one of the most active markets in maize and rice and is influenced by informal cross border trade with Tanzania. Mzimba is a major maize producing area in the northern region. Salima, in the center along the lake, is an important market where some of the fishing populations are almost entirely dependent on the market for staple cereals. Mitundu is a very busy peri urban market in Lilongwe. In the south, the Lunzu market is the main supplier of food commodities such as maize and rice for Blantyre. The Bangula market in Nsanje district was chosen to represent the Lower Shire area, covering Chikwawa and Nsanje districts. Monthly prices are supplied the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security Market Information System in Malawi. Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

6 ANNEX: Malawi Monthly Price Bulletin February 2010 Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

7 ANNEX: Malawi Monthly Price Bulletin February 2010 Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii