THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SUSTAINABILITY World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future

Transcription

1 THE FUTURE OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SUSTAINABILITY World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future RICHARD WAITE, TIM SEARCHINGER, AND CHRISTOPHER DELGADO Photo Source: Neil Palmer (CIAT)

2 WRI.org/WRR

3 Partners

4 Financial support Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme World Bank

5 HOW CAN THE WORLD FEED MORE THAN 9 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050 IN A MANNER THAT ADVANCES DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCES PRESSURE ON THE ENVIRONMENT?

6 The world needs to close the food gap

7 The world needs agriculture to support economic development

8 The world needs to reduce agriculture s impact on the environment Share of global impact (percent in 2010) GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS EARTH S LANDMASS (EX-ANTARCTICA) WATER WITHDRAWAL % = 49 Gt CO 2 e 100% = 13.3 bn ha 100% = 3862 km 3 Source: WRI analysis based on IEA (2012); EIA (2012); EPA (2012); Houghton (2008); FAO (2011); FAO (2012); Foley et al. (2005).

9 Image source: Sam Beebe, Ecotrust.

10 Crop yields must grow 1/3 more per year by 2050 relative to historical growth to prevent new land conversion Kg/ha/year % Average annual yield growth ( ) Average annual yield growth needed to avoid an increase in harvested area ( ) Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).

11 A menu of solutions is required to sustainably close the food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* Illustrative * Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels. Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma (2009) and Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).

12 Menu for a sustainable food future Contributes to feeding everyone in 2050 while satisfying (or not negatively impacting) a number of criteria: Poverty alleviation Gender Ecosystems Climate Water Photo: Andrew So.

13 Menu for a sustainable food future Consumption Reduce food loss and waste Shift diets Achieve replacement level fertility Avoid bioenergy competition for food crops and land Production Sustainably increase crop yields Boost yields through crop breeding Improve soil and water management Expand onto low-opportunity-cost degraded lands Sustainably increase livestock productivity Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands Reduce and then stabilize wild fish catch Increase productivity of aquaculture Production methods Improve livestock feeding efficiency Increase the efficiency of fertilizer use Manage rice paddies to reduce emissions Photo: Andrew So.

14 Menu item: Reduce food loss and waste Photo: WRAP.

15 A significant share of food intended for human consumption is lost or wasted between the farm and the fork 32% of global food supply by weight 24% of global food supply by energy content (calories) Source: WRI analysis based on FAO (2011).

16 Where food is lost or wasted along the value chain varies by region (Percent of kcal lost or wasted) Source: WRI analysis based on FAO (2011). Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

17 Cutting in half the rate of food loss and waste by 2050 would reduce the food gap by ~22% Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* 1,400 16,000 9,500 Available food (2006) Reduce rate of food loss & waste by 50% Baseline available food needed (2050) Source: Searchinger et al. (2013).

18 Global Food Loss and Waste Measurement Protocol

19 Menu item: Shift diets 1. Reduce excessive calorie consumption 2. Reduce excessive demand for animal products, especially beef Image source: Ace Diets.

20 Eliminating obesity by 2050 and reducing overweight by half would reduce the food gap by ~6% Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* 16, ,400 9,500 Available food (2006) Reduce excess kcal consumption Reduce rate of food loss & waste by 50% Baseline available food needed (2050) Source: Searchinger et al. (2013).

21 Trends in meat and milk consumption to % projected increase in animal product consumption by % projected increase in beef consumption by /4 to 1/3 of crops are used to feed animals today Source: Searchinger et al. (2013).

22 Beef is a far less efficient source of calories and protein than milk and other animal products Percent or units of edible output per 100 units of feed or grass input Note: Edible output refers to the calorie and protein content of bone-free carcass. Source: Terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. (2010) (extra unpublished tables), Wirsenius (2000). Finfish and shrimp: WRI analysis based on USDA (2013), NRC (2011), Tacon and Metian (2008), Wirsenius (2000), and FAO (1989).

23 Menu item: Avoid biofuel competition for food crops and land Image source: Paul.

24 ~30% of current global crop energy would be needed to produce just 10% of transportation fuel in 2050 Percent Source: WRI analysis based on EIA (2013), FAO (2013), and Wirsenius (2000).

25 Phasing out crop-based biofuels by 2050 would reduce the food gap by ~15% Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* 16, ,400 9,500 Available food (2006) Phase out crop-based biofuels Reduce excess kcal consumption Reduce rate of food loss & waste by 50% Baseline available food needed (2050) Source: Searchinger and Heimlich (2015).

26 Image source: EC/ECHO/Anouk Delafortrie. Menu item: Achieve replacement level fertility

27 All regions except Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to reach replacement level fertility by 2050 Total fertility rate Note: SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. LAC = Latin America and Caribbean. N America = North America. N Africa = Rest of Africa. Source: UNDESA (2013). Total fertility by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.

28 Total fertility rates can decline rapidly Total fertility rate Source: World Bank (2012).

29 Achieving replacement level fertility by 2050 would reduce the food gap by ~10% Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* 16,000 9, ,400 Available food (2006) Source: Searchinger et al. (2013). Achieve replacement level fertility Phase out crop-based biofuels Reduce excess kcal consumption Reduce rate of food loss & waste by 50% Baseline available food needed (2050)

30 We will still need to sustainably increase food production Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* 16,000 9,500? ,400 Available food (2006) Sustainably increase crop, livestock, fish production Achieve replacement level fertility Phase out crop-based biofuels Reduce excess kcal consumption Reduce rate of food loss & waste by 50% Baseline available food needed (2050) Source: Searchinger et al. (2013).

31 Most studies project net adverse impacts on crop yields due to climate change (3 C warmer world) Source: World Bank (2010).

32 Water stress will increase in many agricultural areas by 2025 due to growing water use and higher temperatures (Based on IPCC Scenario A1B) Source: WRI and The Coca-Cola Company (2011). Cropped areas from Ramankutty et al. (2008).

33 Menu item: Boost yields through crop breeding Image Source: Morten Bentzon Sorenson.

34 Menu item: Improve land and water management practices Image Source: Chris Reij.

35 Land and water management, plus micro-dosing, increases sorghum yields (Burkina Faso, ) Kilograms per hectare Source: Sawadogo (2013). Images: Attari Boukar and Chris Reij.

36 Agroforestry and water harvesting could be scaled up on more than 300 million hectares in Sub-Saharan Africa Source: WRI analysis based on IUCN and UNEP (2013), Fritz and See (2013), FAO/UNEP (1986).

37 Menu item: Expand onto low-opportunity-cost degraded lands Image source: Sekala.

38 More than 14 million hectares of low-opportunity-cost degraded lands in Kalimantan are potentially suitable for oil palm Source: Gingold et al. (2012).

39 Menu item: Increase pastureland productivity Image source: Luis Solarte/CIPAV.

40 Aquaculture is expanding to meet world fish demand Global fish production (million tons) Source: Historical data from FAO (2014). Projections : WRI analysis, assumes 10 percent reduction in wild fish catch, and linear growth of aquaculture production at 2 million tons per year.

41 Menu item: Reduce and then stabilize wild fish catch Image source: NOAA.

42 Menu item: Improve productivity and environmental performance of aquaculture Image source: WorldFish Bangladesh Office.

43 Menu items will help close the food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)* 16,000 9,500? ,400 Available food (2006) Source: Searchinger et al. (2013). Sustainably increase crop, livestock, fish production Achieve replacement level fertility Phase out crop-based biofuels Reduce excess kcal consumption Reduce rate of food loss & waste by 50% Baseline available food needed (2050)

44 Production methods menu items: Reduce GHG emissions from livestock, fertilizer, rice Image source: IRRI.

45 Some key takeaways The challenge is even bigger than commonly perceived, and is most acute in Sub-Saharan Africa Demand reduction important: food waste, shifting diets, bioenergy, replacement level fertility Production-side strategies: more efficient use of inputs Boosting crop yields must be combined with land protection Lots of opportunities with livestock (production and consumption) Support agricultural livelihoods and keep food nutritious, safe, and affordable

46 Thank you! WRI.ORG/WRR