Lyon County Ag News August 2018

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1 College of Agriculture, Food and Environment Cooperative Extension Service In this issue: Lyon County Extension Service Corn/SB Trends Timely Tips R. Burris Bull Value Assessment Program Grain Crop Field School Weaning 101 Workshop KSU Sheep/Goat Conference. Beef Bash Program Lyon County Ag News August 2018 Dear Ag Producer, Price pressures on cattle and grain crops due to good supplies and global market trade and tariff issues are causing increased price pressure on U.S. farmers. UK Beef Bash will be held on September 20 at the Princeton Research Station. Cutting costs where an economic return is uncertain can be helpful. Nitrogen applications for stockpiling may be an area that can be reduced. Greg Halich, UK Farm Management Specialist, shared recent information on high organic matter fields suggesting that there is insufficient response to N applications with organic matters at 4%. See the table below. For the complete article please call. The Caldwell-Lyon Cattlemen s Association will meet on Tuesday, September 11, 6:00 p.m. It will be at the Lee S. Jones Convention Center for a second time. Sincerely, Susan M. Fox Extension Agent for Agriculture and Natural Resources Table 1: General Nitrogen Recommendations for Stockpiling Fescue Pastures from article by Greg Halich. Level of Management Promoting Biological Activity Soil Organic Matter > 4% 3-4% < 3% High No N No N 0-60 units Medium No N 0-60 units units Low 0-60 units units units Notes: From a practical standpoint, 40 units of nitrogen is usually the minimum that would be spread unit recommendation is effectively 0 or units of nitrogen. Level of Management that Promotes Various Biological Activity: High Biological Activity Low Biological Activity Excellent Rotational Grazing Continuous Grazing Low Stocking Rate High Stocking Rate High % Legumes Low % Legumes No Hay Removal Moderate Hay Removal Kevin Laurent discusses quick release couplers for water systems at the W, KY Forage Field

2 Another Year With Above-Trend Yields For Corn And Soybeans? What Might This Mean For Prices? Todd Davis, University of Kentucky Grain Marketing Specialist USDA provides the first farmer survey and in-field measurements of the 2018 corn and soybean crops in the August Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Market analysts usually provide pre-report estimates of yield and production to prepare farmers for USDA s estimates. What might be coming our way from USDA? Market sentiment is that USDA will increase yield projections based on the weekly crop conditions survey. USDA-NASS surveys indicate about 72% of the U.S. corn crop is in good or excellent (GE) condition as of July 22, 2018, as compared to 62% for the 2017 corn crop. The U.S. soybean crop is also in better shape than last year with 70% in GE condition as compared to 57% in Kentucky s corn and soybean crops are also rated in better condition than last year. USDA rates 83% and 81% of Kentucky s corn and soybean crops rated in GE condition, respectively, on July 22, Both crops are 4% and 11% above their previous year s rating, respectively. Similarly, the U.S. corn and soybean crops are ahead of the average pace in the race towards physiological maturity. USDA estimates that 38% of the U.S. corn crop is at the dough stage as compared to the 19% five-year average rate. USDA also estimates 44% of the U.S. soybean crop setting pods as compared to 23% average rate for the last five years. Kentucky is also ahead of the average pace of dough and pod setting at 32% and 30%, respectively, for corn and soybeans. Market expectations are for corn and soybean yields to be larger than the trend-yields currently used by USDA in the WASDE reports. Statistical models based on the crop condition surveys indicate a U.S. corn yield of 177 bushels/acre based on conditions in late July. If the corn crop maintains the current conditions through the end of September, then the statistical models suggest a yield of 180 bushels/acre is possible. USDA is currently using a yield of 174 bushels/acre. The statistical models for soybeans are not very accurate in July because August weather largely determines yield. Still, the models suggest a yield of 49.5 bushels/acre is realistic as compared to the 48.5 bushels/acre yield currently adopted by USDA. If the soybean crop could maintain the quality conditions through the end of September, the statistical models suggest a yield of 51 bushels/acre may be possible. What does this suggest for ending stocks and the U.S. marketing-year average (MYA) farm price? If the U.S. corn crop yields 177 bushels/acre, then the U.S. corn crop would be billion bushels or about 250 million bushels more than the July 2018 forecast (Table 1). Assuming 2018 use remains the same as estimated in July, then U.S. corn stocks could increase to 1.8 billion bushels. If the average yield increases to 180 bushels/acre, production would be 14.7 billion bushels, and stocks could exceed 2 billion bushels. The U.S. MYA price would be pressured lower to about $3.75/bushel for the 177 bushels/acre yield and $3.60/bushel for the 180 bushels/acre yield (Table 1). The 2018 soybean market could have the unfortunate double-whammy of lower than expected use and more abundant than expected production. The July WASDE report projects a 205 million bushel reduction in use due to lower exports. USDA increased stocks to 580 million bushels in the July report in response to reduced exports. If the U.S. soybean yield is 49.5 bushels/acre, then stocks could increase to 640 million bushels. A yield of 51 bushels/acre could overwhelm ending stocks to over 720 million bushels (Table 2).

3 Increasing soybean stocks would pressure prices lower with stocks of 640 million providing a potential U.S. MYA farm price of $9/bushel. If ending stocks exceeded 720 million bushels, then the U.S MYA farm price might be $8.70/bushel (Table 2). Is there any fodder to feed the market bull? Analysts in the market are discussing the potential negative aspect of crop progress for corn and soybeans running well ahead of last year and the five-year average. The analogy is of a sprinter trying to run a long distance race. An opinion in the market is that the corn and soybean plants may finish too early without having adequate time for complete grain fill or pod fill to increase the yield of both crops. USDA will not be able to measure the effect of this year s faster than average pace until the crops are near harvest and USDA measures test weights for corn and soybeans. This information is typically in the October report. The other fodder for a bull would be a swift resolution to the trade disruptions with China in a manner that brings demand back to the U.S. for soybeans. Like the weather, that is out of the hands of managers. Managers need to remain vigilant for pricing and risk management. Current prices are not appealing, but the example balance sheets illustrate further price weakness in response to increasing ending stocks U.S. Corn (Projected) July U.S. Yield U.S. Yield WASDE + 3 bu./acre + 6 bu./acre Planted Acres (million) Harvested Acres (million) Yield (bushels/acre) Million Bushels Beginning Stocks + Imports 2,077 2,077 2,077 Production 14,230 14,479 14,724 Total Supply 16,307 16,556 16,801 Total Use 14,755 14,755 14,755 Ending Stocks 1,552 1,801 2,046 Stocks-to-Use (%) 10.5% 12.2% 13.9% U.S. Marketing-Year Average $3.80 $3.75 $3.60 Farm Price ($/bushel) U.S. Soybeans (Projected) July U.S. Yield U.S. Yield WASDE + 1 bu./acre bu./acre Planted Acres (million) Harvested Acres (million) Yield (bushels/acre) Source: USDA-World Agricultural Outlook Board and Author s Projections Million Bushels Beginning Stocks + Imports Production 4,310 4,401 4,534 Total Supply 4,800 4,891 5,024 Total Use 4,220 4,250 4,300 Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use (%) 13.7% 15.1% 16.8% U.S. Marketing-Year Average $9.25 $9.00 $8.70 Farm Price ($/bushel)

4 Timely Tips Dr. Roy Burris, Beef Extension Professor, University of Kentucky Spring-Calving Cow Herd Fescue pastures don t generally produce much this month, however rain in June and early July has given us some forage going into the usually dry months. Keep rotating pastures to permit calves to continue gaining weight. Keep minerals available at all times. Bulls should have been removed from the cow herd by now! They should be pastured away from the cow herd with a good fence and allowed to regain lost weight and condition. It is a good time to evaluate physical condition, especially feet and legs. Bulls can be given medical attention and still have plenty of time to recover, e.g., corns, abscesses, split hooves, etc. Repair and improve corrals for fall working and weaning. Consider having an area to wean calves and retain ownership for postweaning feeding rather than selling green, lightweight calves. Plan to participate in CPH-45 feeder calf sales in your area. Fall-Calving Cow Herd Dry cows should be moved to better pastures as calving time approaches. Cows should start calving next month. Yearling heifers may begin headstart calving later this month. Plan to move cows to stockpiled fescue for the breeding season, so it will soon be time to apply nitrogen fertilizer. Prepare for the fall-calving season (usually September). Get ready, be sure you have the following: record book eartags for identification calf puller castration equipment General Provide shade and water! Cattle will need shade during the hot part of the day. Check water supply frequently as much as 20 gallons may be required by high producing cows in very hot weather. Select pastures for stockpiling. Remove cattle and apply nitrogen when moisture conditions are favorable. Stockpiled fescues can be especially beneficial for fall-calving cows after calving. Avoid working cattle when temperatures are extremely high especially those grazing high-endophyte fescue. If cattle must be handled, do so in the early morning. Do not give up on fly control in late summer, especially if fly numbers are greater than about 50 flies per animal. You can use a different type of spray or pour-on to kill any resistant flies at the end of fly season. Keep a good mineral mix available at all times. The UK Beef IRM Basic Cow-Calf mineral is a good choice. Cattle may also be more prone to eat poisonous plants during periods of extreme temperature stress. They will stay in wooded areas and browse on plants that they would not normally consume. Consider putting a roll of hay in these areas and/or spraying plants like purple (perilla) mint which can be toxic. Take soil samples to determine pasture fertility needs. Fertilize as needed, this fall.

5 Bull Value Assessment Program - New Program - Fall 2018! Dr. Darrh Bullock, Extension Beef Specialist, and Ben Crites, IRM Coordinator, University of Kentucky Kentucky has a beef cattle population of over 1 million head, ranks 3 rd in the nation in cattle density and has a financial worth estimate of over $1.5 billion. With a cow to bull ratio of 25:1 it requires 40,000 bulls to service the commonwealth s cow herd; considering a useful life of 4 breeding seasons over 10,000 bulls are purchased by Kentucky beef farmers annually. Approximately 75% of the genetics in a calf crop, when heifers are retained, comes from the bulls used over the past five years; reinforcing the point that proper bull purchases are critical to genetic and overall improvement. There are enormous consequences associated with purchasing a bull and introducing his genetics for both the calf crop to be marketed and the future cow herd, if replacements are being retained. The purpose of this educational program is to improve beef farmers ability to purchase the correct bull for their management conditions, in a cost effective manner, and then manage the bull properly to facilitate reproductive success. Matching genetics to management, breeding soundness exams, bull nutritional and health management and the economic considerations of each of these topics will be addressed by Extension professionals with expertise in each of these areas. Auctions can be intimidating events for small cattle producers and after making their purchases there is no measuring stick to determine if their purchase may actually lead to future financial gains or losses. A mock auction will be utilized to reinforce the key points made in the educational program and to provide teachable moments without actual financial risk. The Bull Value Assessment Program is a two-part educational program. The first session will be formal classroom education using the modules described below. At the conclusion of the educational program each producer will be assigned one of five scenarios. Scenarios may include varying levels of base cow herd production, management and marketing strategies. Participants will also receive a sales catalogue with the charge to research the bulls and determine which ones would be suitable in their assigned scenario. Videos of the bulls will be available online for viewing. Participants will return the following week for the second part of the program with the responsibility of buying a single bull to fit their assigned scenario. This session will be the Mock Auction. Every attempt will be made to simulate a real auction. Producers can come early and view the bull videos and ask questions to the sales team. At the designated time the auction will begin and all bulls will be sold to the highest bidder while viewing the video of each bull. Utilizing economic index selection methods, each bull will be assigned a value for each scenario. With economic indexes a bull that has extremely high value in one scenario may have a much lower value in a scenario that emphasizes other traits or has a different marketing scheme. Therefore, each bull will have a computed estimated value for each scenario. At the conclusion of the sale the sales team will determine the relative value of each sale; this will be done by comparing the sale price against the determined value of each bull (i.e., if a bull is purchased for $2500 and his computed value was $3500 then that producers would have a plus $1000 value; however, if that producer had paid $4000 then they would have a minus $500 value). The producer with the highest value purchase within each scenario will be recognized

6 Session 1 Topics: Breeding Soundness Exams: The importance of BSE, potential production and economic losses associated with undetected bull infertility and proper procedure for conducting BSE. Additional information will be provided on scrotal circumference verses service capacity and limitations on age of bull. Bull Nutritional Management: Nutritional management of bulls after purchase, during the breeding season and through the rest of the year. Matching Genetics to Management: Assessing resources, labor and nutrition, and determining what level of production is optimal for each case. Targeting Selection for Specific Markets: Identifying available markets and determining what traits should be targeted for selection. Tools for Selection: Techniques for selecting bulls, including specific information on understanding and using Expected Progeny Differences and implementing a crossbreeding program. This program will be offered at five locations across the state and will be limited to 50 producers per location. It is required to attend the first educational session in order to participate in the sale the following week. A light meal will be served at each program session. It is important to note that all material will be consistent across locations and sessions will begin at 6:00 pm local time. Western KY will be at the Hopkins County Extension Office with Session 1 on October 9 and Session 2 on October 16. The cost to attend the program is $25 per individual. This will include dinner at both sessions along with all program materials. Space is limited to 50 individuals per location and will be filled on a first come, first serve basis. To register and to secure your spot for any location, please Ben Crites at benjamin.crites@uky.edu. Additionally, registration is available online by visiting university-of-kentucky-cooperative-extension If you have any questions or would like more details on the program, please contact Ben Crites (benjamin.crites@uky.edu) or Dr. Darrh Bullock (dbullock@uky.edu) or your local ANR Extension Agent. Mob grazing an overgrown area at the Western Kentucky Forage Field Day.

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