International Markets: Demand for Your Beef

Transcription

1 Greg Hnes, USMEF 11/28/17 The Roles of USMEF Interntionl Mrkets: Demnd for Your Beef Mrketing Support Technicl Services Issues Mngement Trde Servicing InMrket Fcilittion Buyer Tems Greg Hnes USMEF Asst. VP, Intern6onl Mrke6ng USMEF s Office Network Incresing Globl Beef Supplies 6 Russi 5 Million mt Turkey 4 Pkistn 3 Austrli ArgenSn Indi Chin 1 Brzil F United Sttes Source: USDA/FAS Apr 17 & USMEF essmtes U.S. Leding Globl Export Growth Globl Exporters & Importers +3% 6, 4, Source: Globl Trde Atls & USMEF essmtes 17 Rnge Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. o M ex ic y gu r P y nt in ge gu ru U Ar 28 d n C d n li l Ze zi l Br, hin U.S. Jp n Rus si NZ, 2 8 Cn d, 4, ew 4, 16% 3% +22% N 8, 6,.S. 6, 9% U 1,, U.S. 8, 8, Egy pt S. K ore 2 8 Chil e Mex ico Cn d 1,, Indi Aus trli 16 1,4, 1,, Brz il 1,, 15 G. C 1,, +9% 1,6, tr 19% +11% 1,, In di 1,8, 1,4, Beef & Vriety Met Exports: JnAug Beef & Vriety Met Imports 2,, Au s Beef & Vriety Met Exports 1,6, Source: Globl Trde Atls 1

2 Greg Hnes, USMEF 11/28/17 U.S. Beef nd Vriety Met Exports to Top Mrkets U.S. Beef Exports Vlue U.S. Beef & Vriety Met Exports to Top Mrkets Metric Tons 25,, 15, 1, 5, Source: USDA/FAS & USMEF Jnury September Exports Kore Chin/HK Middle Est South Am Afric 15: 782,369 MT, 12% 16: 848,93 MT, +8.5% 17: 926,985 MT, +9% Crib + DR Centrl Am U.S. $ Billion $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $1. $.8 $.6 $.4 $.2 $. Kore Jnury September Exports Source: USDA/FAS & USMEF Chin/HK Jn Sep 15: $4.766 billion, 8% Jn Sep 16: $4.545 billion, 5% Jn Sep 17: $5.267 billion, +16% Middle Est Crib + DR South Am Centrl Am Beef Exports to Exceed $7 BILLION Agin This Yer Million USD $2, $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1, $1, $8 $6 $4 $ $ $1,826 $1,236 Kore Source: USMEF estimtes U.S. Beef & Vriety Export Vlue: Top Mrkets 17 F $983 $839 $774 Chin/HK $411 FTA prtner countries ccount for roughly 45% of U.S. beef export vlue. ccounts for more thn 25%. $26 $216 $198 $183 $159 Mid Est Centrl & South Am Crib & DR $94 Other U.S. Beef Exports & Forecst 1,4, 1,, 1,, 8, 6, 4,, Source: USDA/FAS nd USMEF estimtes U.S. Beef & Vriety Met Exports +11% +7.5% f 21f Jn Sep 17: 926,985 MT, +9% C/S Americ Middle Est Chin/HK S. Kore 5 yer nnul verge forecst growth rte: 4.2% Advntge U.S.A.: World s Lrgest Exporter of Chilled Beef U.S. Dominting Mrket Shre of Chilled Beef Imports 35, 3, +34% Chilled Beef Exports: JnAug 7% U.S. Shre of Chilled Beef Imports: JnAug 71% 25,, 15, 1, 4% +5% +5% 13% +5% +4% 6% 5% 4% 3% % 52% 53% 26% 5, 1% U.S. Austrli Brzil Prguy 28 % Kore Hong Kong Source: Globl Trde Atls Source: Globl Trde Atls, USMEF 17 Rnge Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 2

3 Greg Hnes, USMEF 11/28/17 Composition of U.S. Beef Exports Rounds, clods, skirts & vriety mets to Chuck rolls, rounds, skirts & vriety mets to C/S Americ Fullsets to the Vriety mets & middle mets to the Middle Est Exmples of How Exports Add to Crcss Vlue Tongues to : $12.62 Short plte to : $27.36 Short ribs/chuck short ribs to Kore: $19 per fed hed Short pltes, short ribs, chuck rolls, skirts, middle mets & vriety mets to, Kore, Hong Kong, & S.E. Asi Vlue of Exports per Fed Hed Slughtered $35 $3 $25 $ $15 $1 $5 $ Source: USDA/FAS, fed slughter 16: $262.17, 6% Jn Sep 17: $277.31, +1% JnSep 17 is contributing over qurter of export vlue per hed Jn Sep 17 vlue per fed hed of cttle slughtered = $ $15.66 $4.59 $29.68 $31.79 $38.27 $76.21 $45.11 Kore Hong Kong Source: Globl Trde Atls import dt, USDA/NASS, USMEF estimtes, dt is for Jn Sept 17 Source: USDA/FAS nd USMEF, fed slughter Top Growth Mrket Metric ton increse in exports 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25,, 15, 1, 5, +22% Top growth mrkets for U.S. beef Increse over 16 volume, JnSep +68% +13% +7% +94% Chin/HK Kore Afric S. Americ +22% +9% +3% +1% Niku Boom s Demnd for Met is Booming Metric Tons 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3,, 1, s Met Imports: JnSep +7% pork poultry beef % +16% Source: USDA/FAS Source: Globl Trde Atls 17 Rnge Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 3

4 Greg Hnes, USMEF 11/28/17 Beef Constrints in Austrli EPA U.S. 38.5% vs. Austrli Chilled 29.9% Frozen 27.2% Tongues & skirts 7.6% (12.8% U.S.) Beef Sfegurd Duty rtes from 38.5% to 5% on frozen beef for the reminder of the yer through Mrch 31, 18 Incresed duty will lso effect nd New Zelnd Austrli, MX not impcted Austrlin duty to remin 27.2% U.S. & Austrli Shre of s Totl Beef Imports 1% 9% 85% 81% 8% 76% 73% 68% 7% 63% 6% 6% 56% 52% 52% 51% 46% 5% 44% 36% 38% 4% 4% 35% 3% 24% 26% 19% % 12% 15% 8% 1% 2% % Jul17 U.S. Austrli 17 Dt bsed off JnJuly Source: Globl Trde Atls Kore: Growth in Beef Consumption Kore Beef FTA Triff Comprison 16. 6% Kg per cpit, crcss wt % 4% 3% % 1% U.S. 26.7% 24.% 21.3% 18.7% 16% 13.3% 1.7% 8% 5.3% 2.7% % % % Aus. 32% 29.3% 26.6% 23.9% 21.3% 18.6% 15.9% 13.3% 1.6% 7.9% 5.3% 2.6% % Mex. 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Cn. 34.6% 32% 29.3% 26.6% 24% 21.3% 18.6% 16% 13.3% 1.6% 8% 5.3% 2.6% New 34.6% 32% 29.3% 26.6% 23.9% 21.3% 18.6% 15.9% 13.3% 1.6% 7.9% 5.3% 2.6% Zelnd % Source: USDA/FAS Per cpit cons Selfsufficiency Kore Importing Record Volumes of Chilled Beef 35, 3, 25,, 15, 1, 5, Kore s chilled beef imports: JnSep United Sttes +86% Austrli Source: Globl Trde Atls; U.S. mrket shre incresed from 31% to 41% in 16 1% Importnce of NAFTA U.S. beef exports to nd ccounted for 3% of U.S. beef export volume t 36, mt nd 27% of export vlue t $1.7 billion in 16 2 nd lrgest export destintion 4th lrgest U.S. beef vlue per fed hed of cttle slughtered from exports to more thn doubled from $13.9 in 1994 to $31.34 in 16 Vlue per fed hed from exports to nerly qudrupled from $1.39 in 1994 to $4.3 in 16 Exports to ccount for bout 3% of U.S. beef production Beef export vlue to hs verged $8.5 per cpit over the pst 3 yers; nd just under 2 kg/person 17 Rnge Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 4

5 Greg Hnes, USMEF 11/28/17 Growth to NAFTA Chin Beef Generl Sitution All sectors of domessc industry profit (cow/clf, feedlot, pcker) while imports rise Per cpit nnul consumpson growth >2% Greter cceptnce of imports s mrket blncing Eligible foreign suppliers expnding Growing preference for chilled beef imports Ecommerce imported beef sles incresing The two lrgest beef compnies in Chin, Kerchin nd Hondo, ccount for less thn 1% of totl Chinese beef producson Source: USDA/FAS, compiled by USMEF Chin s Imports Growing Rpidly 6, Chin s Beef Imports +21.5% Beef Imports Gining Momentum Chin s Beef Situ6on 6,, Consump6on 5, 4, 3,, 1, Argen6n New Zelnd Austrli Uruguy Brzil, product weight 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, Produc6on Imports f Source: Globl Trde Atls, USMEF Sources: GTA, USDA, USMEF estimtes, excludes Diving into Chin US Beef hs Returned to Iconic Outlets USMEF Senior VP Asi Pcific, Joel Hggrd Secretry Perdue U.S. beef t womi.com One of the lrgest ecommerce pltforms begins sles June 22, becoming the first commercil outlet in Chin selling U.S. beef 17 Rnge Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 5

6 Greg Hnes, USMEF 11/28/17 Beef exports to Chin to Remin Reltively Smll Short to med run The Chllenge of Full Sets Metric Tons 1,6 1,4 1, 1, U.S. 17 Weekly Chilled/Frozen Beef Exports Short plte Short rib b/ less Ribeye Tenderloin Chuck roll Finger met OFFALS Chuck eye roll Striploin Heel muscle Bonein short rib Culottes Inside skirts Outsides skirts Hnging Tender Clod herts Top butts Bll Tips Triptips Chuck Tender Flnk Brisket Sirloin Flp Eye of round Knuckles Inside rounds Outside rounds 1/6 1/ 2/3 2/17 3/3 3/17 3/31 4/14 4/28 5/12 5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7 7/21 8/4 8/18 9/1 9/15 9/29 Chilled vs. frozen: Choice vs U.S. Beef Exports to U.S. Beef Exports to Chin U.S. More Competitive U.S. Less Competitive Source: USDA/FAS The Work Ahed Questions? HIGH QUALITY PREMIUM MASS VALUE ITEMS 17 Rnge Beef Cow Symposium, Cheyenne, Wyo. 6