What s Ahead for Agriculture. Remarks by Mark Pearson Fluid Fertilizer Association Scottsdale, Arizona February 15, 2010

Transcription

1 What s Ahead for Agriculture Remarks by Mark Pearson Fluid Fertilizer Association Scottsdale, Arizona February 15, 2010

2 Thoughts on the World Economy $70.6 trillion Global GDP $14.2 trillion U.S. GDP $13.5 trillion EU GDP $4.3 trillion China GDP

3 U.S. Annual Deficit Projections Source: CBO, White House

4 U.S. National Debt Source: U.S. Treasury, CBO

5 U.S. GDP Source: Financial Forecast Center

6 U.S. Consumer Confidence Source: tradingeconomics.com

7 U.S. Industrial Production Source: tradingeconomics.com

8 10-Year Prime Rate Source: MoneyCafe.com

9 DJIA Five-Year Performance Source:

10 Mountain of Cash Source: Shadowstats.com

11 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Source:

12 Five-Year U.S. Dollar Index Source: Barchart.com

13 Five-Year Gold Prices Source: American Gold Prices

14 U.S. Housing Starts Source: Financial Forecast Center

15 U.S. Restaurant Performance Index Source: Nat l Restaurant Association

16 U.S. Restaurant Performance Index Source: Nat l Restaurant Association

17 U.S. Restaurant Performance Index Source: Nat l Restaurant Association

18 The Cost of Cap and Trade

19 The Cost of Cap and Trade

20 Projected World Population 2050 Source: United Nations

21 World Population Density

22 China s Total Primary Energy Consumption,

23 China s Demand for Oil Imports

24 Projected Oil Consumption Trends in Key Countries Through 2025 Source: IEA, EIA

25 Vital Maritime Chokepoints Source: EIA

26 Maritime Chokepoints - Asia Source: EIA

27 Fuel Futures: NYMEX Crude Oil Source: NYMEX

28 Total Planted Acreage (Million Acres) Total Use (MT) World Corn, Wheat, Oilseeds Planted Acreage vs. Total Use 2,000K 1,800K 1,600K Corn, Wheat & Oilseeds World Planted Acreage vs Total Use 2,400K 2,200K 2,000K 1,400K 1,200K 1,000K 800K 600K 400K 1,800K 1,600K 1,400K 1,200K 1,000K 800K 200K K Wheat Corn Oil Seeds Projected Harvested Total Usage Projected Total Use

29 Fuel Futures: Ethanol March 10 Source: CBOT

30 10-Year Corn Prices Source: NASS

31 World Corn Ending Stocks As Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

32 U.S. Corn Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

33 USDA Corn Supply and Use 2008/09 est (01/12/10) 2009/2010 Proj. Area Planted Area Harvested Yield Beginning Stocks 1,624 1,673 Production 12,092 13,151 Imports Supply, Total 13,729 14,834 Feed & Residual 5,246 5,550 Food, Seed & Industrial 4,953 5,470 Domestic Use, Total 10,198 11,020 Exports 1,858 2,050 Use, Total 12,056 13,070 Ending Stocks 1,673 1,764 Average Farm Price $4.06 $3.40-$4.00 Compliments of PHI Marketing

34 March 10 Corn Source: CBOT

35 May 10 Corn Source: CBOT

36 December 10 Corn Source: CBOT

37 10-Year Soybean Prices Source: NASS

38 World Oilseed Demand Climbs Source: USDA

39 March 10 Soybeans Source: CBOT

40 May 10 Soybeans Source: CBOT

41 November 10 Soybeans Source: CBOT

42 U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

43 World Soybean Ending Stocks as Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

44 USDA Soybean Supply and Use 2008/09 (1/12/10) 2009/2010 Projected Area Planted Area Harvested Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning Stocks Production 2,967 3,361 Imports 13 8 Supply, Total 3,185 3,507 Crush 1,662 1,710 Exports 1,283 1,375 Seed Residual 6 83 Use, Total 3,047 3,262 Ending Stocks Average Farm Price $9.97 $8.90-$10.40 Compliments of PHI Marketing

45 World Soybean Supply and Use 2007/ /09 (est.) 2009/2010 (Proj.) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Crush Total Exports Ending Stocks Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing

46 10-Year Wheat Prices Source: NASS

47 March 10 Chicago Wheat KWK9 KWU9 Achart Source: CBOT

48 July 10 Chicago Wheat KWZ9 Achart Source: CBOT

49 December 10 Chicago Wheat Achart KWZ9 Source: CBOT

50 USDA Wheat Supply and Use 2008/09 (11/10/09) 2009/2010 Projected Area Planted Area Harvested Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning Stocks Production 2,499 2,216 Imports Supply, Total 2,932 2,983 Food Seed Feed & Residual Exports 1, Use, Total 2,275 2,007 Ending Stocks Average Farm Price $6.78 $4.70-$5.05 Compliments of PHI Marketing

51 World Wheat Supply and Use 2007/ /09 (est.) 2009/2010 (Proj.) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Feed Total Exports Ending Stocks Million Metric Tons Compliments of PHI Marketing

52 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks As % of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

53 World Wheat Ending Stocks as a Percentage of Use Compliments of PHI Marketing

54 10-Year Cattle Prices Source: NASS

55 U.S. Cattle on Feed Source: USDA

56 Total U.S. Beef Exports Source: U.S. Meat Export Federation

57 March 10 Feeder Cattle Source: CME

58 February 10 Live Cattle Source: CME

59 U.S. Dairy Trade Balance Source: U.S. Dairy Export Council

60 February 10 Class III Milk Source: CBOT

61 10-Year Hog Prices Source: NASS

62 U.S. Quarterly Hogs, Pigs Inventory Source: USDA NASS

63 U.S. Commercial Slaughter Hogs Source: USDA NASS

64 Pork Imports, Exports Source: USDA ERS

65 February 10 Lean Hogs Source: CBOT

66 March 10 Cotton Source: CBOT

67 December 10 Cotton Source: CBOT

68 Average Farm Real Estate Values Source: USDA NASS

69 Farm Real Estate: Average Value per Acre, by Region and State, Jan.1, Change Region/State N. Plains: KS : NE : 1,030 1,140 MN 2,340 2,700 ND : SD : IA: 2,910 3,370 WI 3,100 3,640 1,020 1, ,020 1, ,330 1, ,970 2, ,950 3, ,850 3,

70 Cropland: Average Value per Acre, by Region and State, Jan. 1, Change Region/State N. Plains: 985 1,090 KS : NE : 1,560 1,760 MN 2,130 2,420 ND : SD : 1,040 1,180 IA: 3,100 3,600 WI 2,900 3,370 1,280 1, ,020 1, ,050 2, ,700 2, ,400 1, ,260 4, ,600 3,

71 Pasture: Average Value per Acre, by Region and State, Jan. 1, Change Region/State N. Plains: KS : NE : MN 1,120 1,330 ND : SD : IA: 1,400 1,780 WI 1,740 2, N/C ,480 1, N/C ,070 1, ,130 2,

72 Cropland Rented for Cash: Average Cash Rent per Acre, by State, State N. Plains: KS : NE: MN: ND: SD: IA: WI:

73

74 THE ULTIMATE RESOURCE Julian Simon