TOWARDS ESTIMATING EMISSIONS FROM GM AND CM IN THE UK

Transcription

1 TOWARDS ESTIMATING EMISSIONS FROM GM AND CM IN THE UK Defra project SP1113 CEH, SRUC, ADAS, AFBI, Ricardo-AEA, University of Aberdeen

2 OBJECTIVES To assess the feasibility of including changes in soil carbon stocks due to cropland and grassland management in the UK s LULUCF inventory (for reporting in the inventory in 2015) To improve assessment of progress on GHG targets To identify knowledge and information gaps To quantify the effect of land management policies in the inventory To develop scenarios to test the impact of policies for mitigation and other ambitions.

3 CROPLAND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES Tillage Manure inputs Fertiliser inputs Crop type Annual vs perennial Residue inputs and removal Cover crops. Lowland drainage

4 CROPLAND MANAGEMENT FLOWCHART

5 DATA SOURCES Activity data Annual agricultural census data (crop types) Survey of fertiliser practice (fertiliser and manure inputs) Other farm surveys (tillage and cover crops) Soils map and Countryside Survey (drained organic soils)

6 CM EMISSION FACTOR MODELLING Daily DayCent and DNDC Calibrated against Rothampsted long term sites. Four other UK field sites also modelled. Graph shows SOC (tc/ha) from Daily DayCent EFs comparable from 4 th Assessment Report. Manure EF above range Tillage EF average Residue removal top of range

7 CHANGE IN CROPLAND C STOCKS Cropland SOC stocks, UK All Cropland Tillage land ,00 200,00 180,00 160,00 Cropland SOC Stock/ha, UK All Cropland Tillage land Set aside and fallow Perennial Crop 140,00 120,00 100, Using IPCC Default EFs

8 WHAT IS GRASSLAND? Includes rangelands and pasture land that is not considered as cropland. Includes all grassland from wild lands to recreational areas as well as agricultural systems.

9 GRASSLAND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES Inputs Manures, slurry and mineral N Degradation Drainage on organic soils Not included in this project: Managed burn Rewetting

10 GRASSLAND MANAGEMENT FLOW CHART IPCC Default emission factors probably not UKappropriate

11 ISSUES - GRASSLAND Assessing soil carbon stocks under native vegetation rotational grass never reaches equilibrium Lack of data on C stocks under different GL types Effect of intensification on C stocks. Lack of activity data on erosion Grassland on organo-mineral soils

12 USE OF LPIS TO ASSESS CL-GL ROTATIONS England Wales CA = Crop Annual, CP = Crop Perennial, F = Forest, FPP = Forest - previously Pasture, GNK = Grass Not Known, GP = Grass Permanent, GT = Grass Temporary and O = Other

13 VECTOR APPROACH TO LUC Time series of areas Area Time Grass Forest Crop Matrix From Grass Forest Crop Grass To Forest Crop Vectors Land use vector Time g c g g g g 2 g c f g g g 3 g c f f c g 4 g c f f c c Area

14 CORINE LAND COVER MAPS Cells changed 1990 to 2000 Cells changed 2000 to x 100 km square. 100 m resolution

15 RESULTS Top 20 vectors by area Land_cover_in_1990 Land_cover_in_2000 Land_cover_in_2006 area_km2 Pastures Pastures Pastures 1288 Non-irrigated arable land Non-irrigated arable land Non-irrigated arable land 1274 Sea and ocean Sea and ocean Sea and ocean 1012 Natural grasslands Natural grasslands Natural grasslands 744 Moors and heathland Moors and heathland Moors and heathland 618 Coniferous forest Coniferous forest Coniferous forest 556 Pastures Pastures Natural grasslands 501 Pastures Pastures Non-irrigated arable land 381 Moors and heathland Moors and heathland Natural grasslands 350 Discontinuous urban fabric Discontinuous urban fabric Discontinuous urban fabric 305 Non-irrigated arable land Non-irrigated arable land Pastures 227 Complex cultivation patterns Complex cultivation patterns Pastures 220 Natural grasslands Natural grasslands Moors and heathland 211 Complex cultivation patterns Complex cultivation patterns Non-irrigated arable land 149 Coniferous forest Coniferous forest Transitional woodland-shrub 147 Sport and leisure facilities Sport and leisure facilities Sport and leisure facilities 94 Pastures Pastures Moors and heathland 91 Land principally occupied by agriculture, with significant areas of natural vegetation Land principally occupied by agriculture, with significant areas of natural vegetation Pastures 74 Transitional woodland-shrub Coniferous forest Coniferous forest 59 Broad-leaved forest Broad-leaved forest Broad-leaved forest 55 Pastures Pastures Coniferous forest 54 (total = 10,000 km 2 )

16 FIT WITH OBSERVED CHANGES