EXTRAPOLATE Ex-Ante Tool for Ranking Policy Alternatives

Transcription

1 1of 63 EXTRAPOLATE Ex-Ante Tool for Ranking Policy Alternatives

2 2 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE Ex-Ante Tool for Ranking Policy Alternatives By Timothy Robinson, Livestock Information Officer, Livestock Information, Sector Analysis and Policy Branch. Animal Production and Health Division, FAO, Rome Italy Peter Thorne, Stirling Thorne Associates, UK Philip Thornton, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya for the FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS, FAO See EXTRAPOLATE User Guide Related resources: See the Training Path Policy Learning Programme 2009 for other related resources. Download the Programme Summary for background information and the Overview of the Programme Modules and Sessions for a complete list of resources developed for the Policy Learning Programme FAO Policy Learning Website: About EASYPol The EASYPol home page is available at: EASYPol is a multilingual repository of freely downloadable resources for policy making in agriculture, rural development and food security. The resources are the results of research and field work by policy experts at FAO. The site is maintained by FAO s Policy Assistance Support Service, Policy and Programme Development Support Division, FAO.

3 3of 63 Overview Part I: Introduction Policy process and analysis EXTRAPOLATE summary Part II: Example Dairy policy in Uganda Lessons learned...

4 4of 63 Overview Part I: Introduction Policy process and analysis EXTRAPOLATE summary Part II: Example Dairy policy in Uganda Lessons learned...

5 5of 63 What constitutes a good policy? Equitable Pro-poor - not based purely on profitability Inclusive Based on broad stakeholder consensus Evidence-based Policy analysis Practical Appropriate instruments, institutions and funding

6 6of 63 How do we arrive at a good policy? Engage in policy process Identify policy issue(s) Livelihoods analysis Clarify disputed issues Involve stakeholders Policy Implementation Consensus proposal for new policy or legislation

7 7of 63 How can EXTRAPOLATE help? Set up a coalition for change participation in the policy process Analyse the status quo common understanding of stakeholders and their constraints Identify policy options policy analysis Select optimal combinations of policy intervention participation / negotiation / communication

8 8of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Background Developed by the Pro-Poor Livestock Policy Initiative to assist policy analysis and design Uganda Dairy sector policies Senegal Tabaski festival Andhra Pradesh Livestock service provision Vietnam Pig sector policies

9 9of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Summary PC-based programme Promotes a participatory approach Easy to use, well documented User Guide Reference Manual Not data-intensive Can evaluate different combinations of policies Can be used at a range of policy levels Simple graphic output

10 10 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Graphic output Relative change in welfare Policies Stakeholder groups

11 11 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Concept Built around 4 elements and their linkages Stakeholder groups the individuals on which policies have an impact (livelihood status) Constraints that prevent stakeholders from achieving desirable outcomes Outcomes measurable effects of relaxing constraints contribute to the livelihoods of stakeholders) Policies that impact on constraints

12 12 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Model diagram

13 13 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Stakeholders Step 1

14 14 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Constraints Step 2

15 15 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: C S Step 3

16 16 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Outcomes Step 4

17 17 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: O S Step 5

18 18 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: C O Step 6

19 19 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Current situation

20 20 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Policies Step 7

21 21 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: P C Step 8

22 22 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: P O Step 9

23 23 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Impact of policy change on different stakeholders

24 24 of 63 End of Part I

25 25 of 63 Overview Part I: Introduction Policy process and analysis EXTRAPOLATE summary Part II: Example Dairy policy in Uganda Lessons learned...

26 26 of 63 Dairy policy in Uganda origins 1993 Dairy Master Plan Request to help develop a dairy policy MAAIF DDA PMA Secretariat The challenge: To develop policies based on equity, rather than just on profitability To ensure that marginalized groups are represented Credit: ILRI

27 27 of 63 Dairy policy in Uganda process Dairy policy task force MAAIF; PMA Secretariat; DDA; UBOS; NAGRC Stakeholder workshops using EXTRAPOLATE Uganda Dairy Farmers Association Uganda National Dairy Traders Association Uganda Dairy Processors Association NGOs Individual milk producers etc... Credit: ILRI

28 28 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Stakeholders Step 1

29 29 of 63 Stakeholder analysis - commodity chain analysis Informal Formal Source: ILRI 2003

30 30 of 63 Stakeholder analysis - commodity chain analysis Informal Formal

31 31 of 63 Stakeholder groups Producers Smallholder intensive (4) Smallholder extensive (2) Mediumholder intensive (7) Mediumholder extensive (4) Large-scale producers (9) Pastoralist (3) Agro-pastoralist (6) Credit: DDA Credit: ILRI

32 32 of 63 Livelihood status

33 33 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Pairwise comparison

34 34 of 63 Stakeholder groups Producers Smallholder intensive (4) Smallholder extensive (2) Mediumholder intensive (7) Mediumholder extensive (4) Large-scale producers (9) Pastoralist (3) Agro-pastoralist (6) Processors and traders Informal traders (5) Formal traders (8) Informal small processor (6) Formal small processor (7) Large processors and exporters (10) Credit: ILRI Credit: ILRI Credit: DDA Consumers low-income rural consumer (1) low-income urban consumer (1) High income consumer (9)

35 35 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Model elements

36 36 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Constraints Step 2

37 37 of 63 Constraints Production and processing Knowledge and skills Access to fixed inputs Cost and availability of variable inputs Animal health and nutrition Low-yielding cattle breeds Consumption Poor quality of milk and dairy products Institutional constraints Low demand Market access Quality control Insecurity Other constraints Healthy labour force

38 38 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: C S Step 3

39 39 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Model linkages

40 40 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Outcomes Step 4

41 41 of 63 Outcomes Increased production and sales Increased profit margins Increased security of livestock assets Improved nutritional status Increased employment opportunities Reduced environmental degradation

42 42 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: O S Step 5

43 43 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: C O Step 6

44 44 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Current situation

45 45 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Model summaries Relevance Constraints Stakeholder groups

46 46 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Model summaries Relevance Constraints Stakeholder groups

47 47 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Policies Step 7

48 48 of 63 Policy changes Promote genetic improvement Strengthen delivery of veterinary services Provide appropriate extension services Improved market infrastructure and information Ensure quality control along the chain Increase local consumption to build a strong domestic market Promote efficiency in the input supply system Increased access to credit facilities

49 49 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: P C Step 8

50 50 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: P O Step 9

51 51 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Model diagram

52 52 of 63 EXTRAPOLATE: Analysis tools Wealthy Relative producers/processors/consumers change in welfare Policies Small-medium producers Stakeholder groups Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists Poor consumers Small processors & traders

53 53 of 63 Promote genetic improvement Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists

54 54 of 63 Provide appropriate extension services Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists

55 55 of 63 Enforce quality control Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists

56 56 of 63 Promote consumption Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists

57 57 of 63 Optimal combination of policies Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists

58 58 of 63 Key elements of a pro-poor policy Promote genetic improvement Strengthen delivery of veterinary services Provide appropriate extension services Improved market infrastructure and information Ensure quality control along the chain Increase local consumption to build a strong domestic market Promote efficiency in the input supply system Increased access to credit facilities

59 59 of 63 Key elements of a pro-poor policy This DOES NOT mean that genetic improvement and standards/regulation should be discouraged or dropped from the dairy policy This DOES mean that when these broad policy outcomes are disaggregated into their component parts (laws, strategies, institutions etc.) care needs to be taken to ensure that the poorer producers are not disadvantaged, and that their needs are also addressed

60 60 of 63 Impact Short term more analytical approach to policy development increased capacity within the livestock sector to analyse and formulate policies, and tools available to assist with this broader participation of stakeholders in the policy process heightened awareness among stakeholders of how their constraints can be addressed by policy and institutional change Long term A suite of policies, supporting legislation and institutional changes that address the needs of smallholder dairy producers and processors, and poor consumers

61 61 of 63 Lessons learned IF people have strongly opposing views BUT discussion is structured using a simple program (differences in technical capacity do not matter) discussion is informed by data / background studies a neutral and credible institution facilitates negotiation (FAO/PPLPI) THEN It is possible to reconcile positions and design broadly accepted pro-poor policies

62 62 of 63 Further reading Thorne, P., Thornton, P.K. & Robinson, T.P. (2009) EXTRAPOLATE: Ex-ante tool for ranking policy alternatives. PPLPI Reference Manual, Version 2.0. Rome: FAO. Thorne, P., Thornton, P.K. & Robinson, T.P. (2009) EXTRAPOLATE: Ex-ante tool for ranking policy alternatives. PPLPI User Guide, Version 2.0. Rome: FAO. Kasirye, F., Saamanya, J.P., Emwanu, T. & Robinson, T.P. (2006) Supporting the Formulation of a pro-poor dairy development policy in Uganda. PPLPI Summary Report. Rome: FAO.

63 63 of 63 End of Part II