Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in CLM5 for CMIP6. Peter Lawrence

Transcription

1 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in CLM5 for CMIP6 Peter Lawrence NCAR Terrestrial Sciences Section co authors: Dave Lawrence, Danica Lombardozzi, George Hurtt and Brian O Neill Slide 1 - Title

2 Slide 2 - Outline CLM5 New Surface Data Time Series: Historical and Future The new CLM5 capabilities and the LUMIP/CMIP6 scenarios require that annual grid cell data is provided that represents: - The Forest / non forest information of the LUH2 time series - Wood Harvest that is prescribed in a carbon amount to be extracted as wood rather than a fraction of trees - The transient C3/C4 Crops of the time series in the CLM Crop model that are specified for individual crops for each grid cell and each year - Fertilizer and irrigation management is specified by crop and grid cell every year - Gross Unrepresented Land Cover Land Use Change that is not captured in the Net Changes resulting from differences in PFTs and CFTs from one year to the next.

3 CLM5 CMIP6 New Land Surface Data Sets 1. The new Historical and SSP - RCP land use and land cover change time series are being compiled for through the Land Use and Scenario Model Intercomparison Projects (LUMIP and ScenarioMIP). 2. The Global Land Model (GLM) has been extended to 12 land units to better represent dynamics of agriculture and forests. The new land units include: - Primary Forest - Primary Non Forest - Secondary Forest - Secondary Non Forest - Crop C3 Annual - Crop C3 Perennial - Crop C3 Nitrogen Fixing - Crop C4 Annual - Crop C4 Perennial - Grazing Pasture - Grazing Rangeland - Urban 3. New management information for Crops and Forests is provided with transient N Fertilizer and Irrigation prescription, and new Wood Harvest Slide 2 - Outline

4 CMIP6 LUMIP CLM5 Land Use Harmonization (LUH2) ~ 50x information content of CMIP5! New Resolution 0.25 grid-cell fraction New History Hyde 3.2, FAO based Landsat F/NF Multiple crop types (5) Multiple pasture types (2) Updated Forest Cover/Biomass Updated Wood harvest Updated Shifting Cultivation Extended time domain ( ) New Management Layers Agriculture Fraction of cropland irrigated Fraction of cropland flooded Fraction of cropland fertilized (industrial) Industrial Fertilizer application rates Fraction of cropland for biofuels Crop rotations Wood Harvest Fraction used for industrial products Fraction used for commercial biofuels Fraction used for fuelwood New Future Scenarios Six futures, SSP-based New Transition Matrix

5 1. CMIP6 LUMIP CLM5 Land Use Harmonization (LUH2) ~ 50x information content of CMIP5! New Resolution 0.25 grid-cell fraction New History Hyde 3.2, FAO based Landsat F/NF Multiple crop types (5) Multiple pasture types (2) Updated Forest Cover/Biomass Updated Wood harvest Updated Shifting Cultivation Extended time domain ( ) New Management Layers Agriculture Fraction of cropland irrigated Fraction of cropland flooded Fraction of cropland fertilized Industrial Fertilizer application Fraction of cropland for biofuels Crop rotations Wood Harvest Fraction industrial products Fraction commercial biofuels Fraction fuelwood New Future Scenarios Six futures, SSP-based

6 Gridcell Landunit TBD HD Vegetated Lake MD Urban Glacier Crop Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2

7 3. CMIP6 LUMIP CLM5 1. The CLM group has developed new LUMIP CMIP6 CLM transient natural vegetation and crop simulation capability with prescribed annual crop N fertilizer and irrigation. New landuse.timeseries files. For each year of LUMIP/CMIP6 time series specify for each grid cell: - PCT_NATVEG percent of gridcell as natural vegetation land unit - PCT_CROP percent of gridcell as crop land unit - PCT_NAT_PFT percent of natural vegetated land unit for each PFT - PCT_CFT percent of crop land unit for each CFT (irrigated/rainfed) - FERTNITRO_CFT gn/m2/yr N Fertilizer for each CFT - HARVEST_PRIMARY_FOR gc/m2/yr Wood harvest Primary Forest - HARVEST_PRIMARY_NFOR gc/m2/yr Wood harvest Primary Non Forest - HARVEST_SECONDARY_MFOR gc/m2/yr Wood harvest Second Mature For - HARVEST_SECONDARY_YFOR gc/m2/yr Wood harvest Second Young Forest - HARVEST_SECONDARY_NFOR gc/m2/yr Wood harvest Second Non Forest - UNREPRESENTED_PFT_LULCC percent of PFT unrepresented in Net LULCC - UNREPRESENTED_CFT_LULCC percent of CFT unrepresented in Net LULCC Slide 4 Land Cover Change

8 2. Generating CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Method GLM 0.25 Degree -> CLM5 PFTs and CFTs

9 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Current Day High Resolution MODIS and LUH2 Time Series

10 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Current Day High Resolution MODIS and LUH2 Time Series

11 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Current Day High Resolution MODIS and LUH2 Time Series

12 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Current Day High Resolution MODIS and LUH2 Time Series

13 2. Generating CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Method GLM 0.25 Degree -> CLM5 PFTs and CFTs

14 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Apply the Current Day Description of Land Units through time

15 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Apply the Current Day Description of Land Units through time

16 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Apply the Current Day Description of Land Units through time

17 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Apply the Current Day Description of Land Units through time

18 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Apply the Current Day Description of Land Units through time

19 CMIP6 LUMIP CLM5 CLM Crop Model 1. CLM5 Crop will be used to simulate the C3/C4 irrigated/rainfed annual/perennial crops specified in GLM time series with fertilizer rates. 2. Crops simulated currently include: Temperate corn, tropical corn, cotton, rice, sugarcane, temperate soybean, tropical soybean, spring wheat (rainfed and irrigated) 3. Mapping of GLM crop information to CLM5 Crop CFTs based on closest current day crops in CLM Crop of the corresponding type from MIRCA 2000 (Portmann et al 2010) Slide 4 Land Cover Change

20 2. Generating CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 PFTs Method GLM 0.25 Degree -> CLM5 PFTs and CFTs

21 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 CFTs from MIRCA Current Day Crop Distribution

22 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 CFTs Apply the Current Day Description of Land Units through time

23 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 CFTs Apply the Current Day Description of Land Units through time

24 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 CFTs Apply the Current Day Description of Land Units through time

25 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 CFTs Apply the Current Day Description of Land Units through time

26 2. CMIP6 Transient Land Cover in CLM 5 CFTs Apply the Current Day Description of Land Units through time

27 CMIP6 LUMIP CLM5 CLM Crop Model 1. Crops simulated currently include: Temperate corn, tropical corn, cotton, rice, sugarcane, temperate soybean, tropical soybean, spring wheat (rainfed and irrigated) 2. Many of the current day CLM5 Crop CFTs need to be remapped to a surrogate crop inside the CLM5 Crop model if that crop is not currently simulated. 3. We are used UNFAO yield data along with MODIS LAI and FLUXNET GPP to build remapping table to find corresponding active CLM Crop CFT 4. Danica Lombardozzi will continue the CLM5 Crop Investigation after the break Slide 4 Land Cover Change

28 CLM5 - MIRCA 2000 Remapping inside CLM5 Crop CFT CFT CFT CFT CFT 15. C3 Generic Crop 29. Rye 19. Spring Wheat 16. C3 Generic Crop Irrigated 30. Rye Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 17. Temperate Corn 31. Winter Rye 19. Spring Wheat 18. Temperate Corn Irrigated 32. Winter Rye Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 19. Spring Wheat 33. Cassava 61. Rice 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 34. Cassava Irrigated 62. Rice Irrigated 21. Winter Wheat 19. Spring Wheat 22. Winter Wheat Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated Slide 4 Land Cover Change 35. Citrus 19. Spring Wheat 36. Citrus Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 23. Temperate Soybean 37. Cocoa 61. Rice 24. Temperate Soybean Irrigated 38. Cocoa Irrigated 62. Rice Irrigated 25. Barley 19. Spring Wheat 26. Barley Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 27. Winter Barley 19. Spring Wheat 28. Winter Barley Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 39. Coffee 61. Rice 40. Coffee Irrigated 62. Rice Irrigated 43. Datepalm 41. Cotton 44. Datepalm Irrigated 42. Cotton Irrigated 45. Foddergrass 19. Spring Wheat 46. Foddergrass Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 47. Grapes 19. Spring Wheat 48. Grapes Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 49. Groundnuts 61. Rice 50. Groundnuts Irrigated 62. Rice Irrigated 51. Millet 75. Tropical Corn 52. Millet Irrigated 76. Tropical Corn Irrigated 53. Oilpalm 61. Rice 54. Oilpalm Irrigated 62. Rice Irrigated 41. Cotton 55. Potatoes 19. Spring Wheat 42. Cotton Irrigated 56. Potatoes Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 57. Pulses 19. Spring Wheat 58. Pulses Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 59. Rapeseed 19. Spring Wheat 60. Rapeseed Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 71. Miscanthus 17. Temperate Corn 72. Miscanthus Irrigated 18. Temperate Corn Irrigated 73. Switchgrass 17. Temperate Corn 74. Switchgrass Irrigated 18. Temperate Corn Irrigated 61. Rice 75. Tropical Corn 62. Rice Irrigated 76. Tropical Corn Irrigated 63. Sorghum 75. Tropical Corn 64. Sorghum Irrigated 76. Tropical Corn Irrigated 65. Sugarbeet 19. Spring Wheat 66. Sugarbeet Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 67. Sugarcane 68. Sugarcane Irrigated 69. Sunflower 19. Spring Wheat 70. Sunflower Irrigated 20. Spring Wheat Irrigated 77. Tropical Soybean 78. Tropical Soybean Irrigated