Agri-Commodities Daily Report

Transcription

1 Content News in Brief Sugar Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Cotton Agri-Commodity Heat Chart Technical Trend 07-Dec-2016 As on 06-Dec-2016 Commodity Exchange Contract Trend Commodities Daily Weekly Monthly Yearly CPO - MCX Turmeric Sugar Mentha-MCX Ref Soy Oil GuarGum Guar seed Maize Soybean Kapas Cotton-MCX Mustard Coriander Jeera Cardamom- MCX Spice Complex Jeera NCDEX Dec Down Turmeric NCDEX Dec Down Coriander NCDEX Dec Down Cardamom MCX Dec Down Edible Oil Complex Soybean NCDEX Dec Down Mustard Seed NCDEX Dec Sideways Ref Soy Oil NCDEX Dec Down CPO MCX Dec Up Others Sugar NCDEX Dec Up Kapas NCDEX Apr 17 Down Cotton MCX Dec Down Cotton Oilseed Cake NCDEX Dec Down Wheat NCDEX Dec Down MaizeKhrf NCDEX Dec Sideways Barley NCDEX Dec Sideways Mentha Oil MCX Dec Down Guar Gum5 NCDEX Dec Sideways Guar Seed 10 NCDEX Dec Sideways

2 News in brief IMD sets up renewed watch for another cyclone in Bay of Bengal The build-up in the Bay of Bengal over the past three to four days is now set to culminate in the formation of a cyclone, the third in the North-East monsoon season. A preparatory low-pressure area has been wallowing over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal for sometime now. On Tuesday evening it intensified into a depression, and was located 1,320 km south-south-east of Visakhapatnam; 1,360 km south-south-east of Gopalpur (Odisha); and 210 km west-south-west of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands). It has started showing signs of gaining traction, the India Met Department said, and will do so markedly over the next three days while growing into a deep depression and a cyclonic storm. The would-be cyclone may initially move in a west-northwest direction (looking at the Tamil Nadu coast) and later to the northwest (with an eye on Andhra Pradesh). The European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts agrees with the outlook for steady intensification of the depression. It may become a full-blooded cyclone by Friday. (Source: HBL) Soymeal exports surge 104% in Nov Export of Soybean meal and its other value added products in November have recorded an increase of 104 per cent, compared to last year. According to the Soybean Processors Association of India, during November 2016, the export of soybean meal and other added products was recorded at 61,003 tons, against 29,801 tons in November On a financial year basis, export from April-November 2016 was 1,55,874 tons, against 2,73,433 tons last year; a drop of 43 per cent. Our Correspondent During current Oil year, (October September), total exports during October 2016 to November, 2016 was pegged at 80,142 tons as against 71,905 tons last year, showing an increase by 11.45%. (Source: HBL) Cotton prices ruling high on subdued arrivals Cotton prices across the country are ruling high on subdued arrivals. The lack of demand in the apparels industry has also impacted arrivals and although farmers are getting high prices, they are preferring to hold back because of the currency shortage in the market, top industry officials said. Although the country has contracted some 6 lakh bales for export to countries including Bangladesh and Vietnam, traders are finding it difficult to meet contractual obligations because there is no kapas in the market, MM Chokalingam, Director, Marketing, Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) said. s are currently in the range of R5,200 per quintal while Minimum Support s are R4,160 per quintal. This is because some traders are still offering old currency notes to farmers. Some clarity will emerge by the month-end once the currency issue closes. Till then prices will continue to remain high, he said. (Source: FE) SOPA says India soymeal exports up 104% on yr in Nov India's soymeal exports rose 104% on year to 61,003 tn in November, according to a release from the Soybean Processors Association of India. In November last year, the country had exported 29,801 tn of soymeal. Soymeal prices in India have fallen, making these attractive for traditional buyers, said a SOPA official. Earlier, such buyers had shifted to cheaper oilmeal from Latin American countries. The soymeal export numbers include value-added products such as soy chunks, granules, nuggets, and flour. For Apr-Nov, soymeal exports are estimated at 155,874 tn, down from 273,433 tn in the year-ago period, the release said. In November, Japan was the major importer of Indian soymeal, followed by Myanmar and Sri Lanka. While Japan bought 14,543 tn, Myanmar imported 8,083 tn, and Sri Lanka purchased 7,435 tn during the month, according to the release. (Source: Cogencis) As note ban effect subsides, soyabean arrivals pickup After facing minor hurdles when arrivals had come to a halt in the wake of the demonetisation move of the government, soybean arrivals have begun picking up and are expected to keep pace for the remaining part of the season. On a financial year basis, the country s exports during April 2016 to November 2016 were 1,55,874 tonnes as compared to 2,73,433 tonnes in the same period of previous year, showing a decrease of 43%. Industry experts, however, believe that there will be good amount of exports from India. During current Oil year, (October September), total exports during October 2016 to November, 2016 were 80,142 tonnes as against 71,905 tonnes last year, showing an increase by 11.45%. (Source: FE) MPOC: Demand from China showing signs of picking up KUALA LUMPUR: There are signs that China's palm oil imports, which have fallen in recent years, are picking up again, said the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC). "There are many reasons for the slowdown in palm oil orders from China in the last few years. What is important and reassuring is that we are seeing signs of recovery in purchase orders in the last three months," said MPOC chief executive officer Tan Sri Dr Yusof Basiron. "We are seeing month-to-month pick-up in demand from China. We hope to see this encouraging trend pick up in the months ahead as global palm oil supply remains tight due to biodiesel mandates in Indonesia and Malaysia," he told Business Times in an interview. In recent years, China imported more oilseeds to make up for the stagnating output of its locally-produced rapeseed and soyabean. The scarcity of arable land in China is forcing the government to focus on grains for food security. (Source: NewStraitsTimes) Sugar Rises on Expectations of Increasing Ethanol Demand in Brazil Sugar rebounded Tuesday from a four-month low, buoyed by the Brazilian state-run oil company's decision to raise gasoline prices. Starting Tuesday, Petroleo Brasileiro SA would raise prices at its refineries by 8.1% for gasoline and 9.5% for diesel fuel in response to a rally in global oil markets following production cuts announced last week by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Petrobras announced the price increases late Monday afternoon. The increase in gasoline prices is positive for sugar as there will be more demand for ethanol in Brazil, encouraging mills there to direct more cane crush to ethanol instead of sugar. "That would mean that the main plant of the bearish argument--a maximum swing to sugar production in CS [centralsouth] Brazil next year--would be knocked away," wrote Marex Spectron analysts in a recent note. (Source- WSJ) India rabi maize acreage up 6% on year at 1.01 mln ha The area under the rabi maize crop across the country was at 1.01 mln ha as of Thursday, up 6.4% from a year ago, according to data released by the farm ministry. A year ago, farmers had sown maize across 953,600 ha. The acreage this year is also sharply higher than the normal acreage of 693,900 ha for this period, based on the average of the last five years, the data showed. In Bihar, India's largest producer of rabi maize, the acreage was at 222,000 ha, down 3.5% from a year ago, according to the data. In Andhra Pradesh, the second-largest producer, the acreage was up 15.6% on year at 37,000 ha. Farmers in Maharashtra sowed maize across 148,000 ha, down 3.8% from 153,900 ha sown a year ago, the data showed. (Source: Cogencis)

3 Sugar Sugar Futures closed higher on lower level buying by the market participants. However, good sugar productions this sugar season coupled with less demand from the stockists capped further gains. The mostactive December sugar contract closed 0.26% higher to settle at 3,423 per quintal. Sugar production in India has increased marginally this season due to early crushing in states like Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. As per ISMA, Indian sugar mills produced 2.74 mt of sugar between Oct. 1 and November. 30, up 17% compared to last year same period. During SS, the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat have produced lower sugar as compared to last year till the end of November 30 while Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka produce more sugar than the last year. The sugar despatched from sugar mills in first month of current season i.e. October 2016, was lt as compared to lt dispatched in October 2015, last year, down 2.35 lt. The country is likely to produce 23.4 mt sugar in 2016/17, down about 7% from a year earlier as back-to-back droughts ravaged cane crops in the top producing western state of Maharashtra. Moreover, government is looking to enhance domestic supplies by reduce import duty if the prices domestic market increase. Central government is exploring the option of lowering the 40% import duty on the sweetener in its raw form. Global Updates ICE raw sugar futures rebounded on Tuesday from a four-month low, buoyed by the Brazilian state-run oil company's decision to raise gasoline prices which may increase in Brazil. The increase in gasoline prices is positive for sugar as there will be more demand for ethanol in Brazil, encouraging mills there to direct more cane crush to ethanol instead of sugar. FCStone, a broker and Consultancy, cut its forecast for the global sugar supply deficit in the 2016/17 crop year (Oct-Sept) by 2.2 mt to 7.5 mt. It also estimate for global sugar demand in 2016/17 by 0.3% to mt, which still represents a 1.6% increase over the volume seen a year earlier. Market Highlights - Sugar Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY Sugar Spot /qtl Sugar M- NCDEX /qtl Dec 16 ICE-Europe Sugar No $/tonne Mar 17 ICE-US Sugar No 11- Mar 17 Usc/lbs Chart Sugar M Daily NSMZ6 Cndl, NSMZ6, , 3,411.00, 3,438.00, 3,411.00, 3,423.00, (BOM) 3,500 3, ,400 Sugar Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec Mar May-17 Spot Dec Mar May Moreover, speculators reduced their net long positions by 4,812 contracts for the eighth consecutive week in raw sugar contracts to 154,268contracts in the week ended Nov 29 as per U.S CFTC. As per, the International Sugar Organization, world sugar production and demand will come back into balance in , ending the run of deficits which has left inventories at a "critically low level" in the current season. We expect sugar prices to trade sideways on anticipation of good supplies and support at lower level. There are reports of easing supplies in the coming months as crushing season is going on in all the sugarcane growing states. Government has extended stock limit on sugar for next six months to keep the supply sufficient. Technical Contract Unit Support Resistance Sugar NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl

4 Soybean Soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday on anticipation of increase in supplies in the current month. There is an expectation that the arrivals of soybean in the domestic market keeping the supplies more than the demand. The most-active Dec 16 delivery contract closed 0.46% lower to settle at Rs. 3,062 per quintal. It is expectation that the peak arrivals will be observed during the month of December. SOPA has raised the estimate for (Jul- Jun) soybean output in the country to 115 lt from 109 lt estimated earlier which is quite bearish for the domestic price. Global update CBOT soybean prices rose on Tuesday on report of round of export deals with China and concerns about dry weather in Argentina. Soybeans received additional support from a rally in the palm oil market. Soybean prices have been supported by strong demand for U.S. supplies led by China, in December. This week, private exporters reported to the USDA of 624,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China and 378,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/2017 marketing year. We expect Soybean prices to trade sideways to down on improving arrivals in the physical market. Moreover, low level buying by the market participants coupled with good crushing demand from the mills may support prices from lower levels. Soybean prices may trade in a tight range during the peak arrival season during Dec. Rape/mustard Seed Mustard seed futures closed lower on Tuesday due to profit booking from the higher levels. However, winter demand by the industrial buyers and higher MSP limit the loss. The Dec 16 contract ended 0.23% lower to settle at Rs. 4,777/quintal. There are reports of good sowing progress in the state of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and MP. As per agriculture ministry data, Country s mustard acreage in the ongoing rabi season touched 61.7 lakh hectares (lh) as on Dec 02 up 13.6% from a year ago. The sowing operations were not affected much, as farmers had already bought the seeds. Rajasthan, the top mustard producing state, planted 27.3 lakh ha, up 17% from a year ago similarly acreage under mustard increase by 10% in Uttar Pradesh to 11 lh. In MP, mustard is sown in 6.35 lh, up 12% compared to last year. Govt increases mustard MSP by 350 rupees/100 kg to 3,700 rupees for FY16-17 which includes bonus of Rs.100 / quintals. We expect mustard seed to trade sideways on dwindling supplies and pickup in demand in the physical market coupled with higher MSP declaration for mustard crop for 2016/17 season. However, good start to rabi sowing in Rajasthan and Gujarat may pressurize prices. Market Highlights - Oilseeds Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY Soybean Spot- NCDEX /qtl Soybean- NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl Soybean-CBOT Jan 17 USc/Bsh RM Seed Spot- NCDEX /qtl RM Seed- NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl Chart Soybean Daily NSBZ6 Cndl, NSBZ6, , 3,070.00, 3,079.00, 3,043.00, 3, Soybean Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec Jan Feb-17 Spot Dec Jan Feb Chart Mustard (BOM) Daily NRSZ6 Cndl, NRSZ6, , 4,765.00, 4,765.00, 4,710.00, 4, ,200 3,100 3, , (BOM) 4, ,700 4,600 4,500 Mustard Seed Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec Jan Apr-17 Spot Dec Jan Apr Technical Levels Contract Unit Support Resistance Soybean NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl RM Seed NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl

5 Refined Soy Oil Refined soy oil futures closed little lower on Tuesday due to profit booking at higher levels however, increase in spot prices of soyoil and tariff values by the government capped further loss. The most active Ref Soy oil Dec 16 expiry contract closed 0.04% lower to settle at Rs /10kg. The tariff value of crude soyoil was raised by $4 per tn to $876 which was the fifth increase in two and half month by the government. The tariff value of soy oil has been increase by about 6.5% since 15-Sep-16. As per SEA data, India October crude soyoil import 277,878 tonnes, lower by 31 % compared to 405,186 tonnes year ago while, India s 2015/16 crude soyoil import 4.23 mt vs 2.99 mt an increase of 41% y/y for the current oil year (Nov-Oct). Soy oil futures may trade lower on anticipation of further technical corrections at current levels. However, increase tariff and firm international prices may support prices. Crude Palm Oil (CPO) CPO Futures trade on positive note on Tuesday tracking international prices and increase in tariff value by the government. The most active CPO Dec 16 expiry closed 0.61% higher to settle at Rs per 10 kg. The tariff value of CPO increase by $25 to $764/tonne for the 1st half of Dec compared to previous fortnight. This is third straight increase but still lower than the September tariff price. In domestic market, the prices are following the international market as country is depending on the imports. As per SEA data, imports of RBD palmolein in 2015/16 (Nov-Oct) increase to 2.63mt vs 1.66 mt but, crude palm oil (CPO) imports were lower at 5.75 mt Vs 7.72 mt. As per USDA, the imports in 2016/17 will be higher by 14% to 10 mt and consumption too increases by 11% in India. Malaysian palm oil futures hit their highest level in four and a half years on Tuesday, after data indicated that output fell at the start of the month. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association indicated a 20% output drop in the first five days of December compared with a month earlier. Moreover, year-end monsoon seasons affect production, as heavy rains affect the harvesting process. Palm output is forecast to fall 2.8% in November to 1.63 mt, as fresh fruit yields are still bearing the impact of last year's crop damaging El Nino, according to a Reuters survey. Malaysia's palm oil stocks in November are expected to have increased at the sharpest monthly pace in five months, as a slump in exports outweighed production, despite the fall in production. We expect CPO to trade sideways to higher tracking firm international prices. Moreover, expectation of stockists demand and higher tariff value by the government may also support prices. However, profit booking may be possible due to technical correction. Technical Market Highlights- Edible oils Ref Soyoil Spot - Mumbai Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Dec 16 Soybean Oil- CBOT- Jan 17 CPO-Bursa Malaysia - Feb 17 CPO- MCX Dec 16 Chart Ref Soy Oil Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY /10 kg /10 kg USc/lb MYR/Tn /10 kg Daily NSOZ (BOM) Cndl, NSOZ6, , , , , , B 720 Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec Jan Feb-17 Spot Dec Jan Feb Chart Crude Palm Oil MCX Dec 16 contract Daily MCAZ (BOM) Cndl, MCAZ6, , , , , , +5.40, (+0.96%) B 03 CPO Spread Matrix Closing 30-Dec Jan Feb Dec Jan Feb Contract Unit Support Resistance Ref Soy Oil NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl CPO MCX Dec 16 /qtl

6 Spices Jeera Jeera futures closed down for the second consecutive day mainly due to reports of good progress of Jeera sowing in Gujarat and drop in spot market prices on week uptake by the stockists. NCDEX Dec 16 Jeera closed 1.66% down to close at Rs 18,375 per quintal. Jeera sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started. As on 28-Nov- 16, Gujarat farmers have planted jeera in 1,41,100 hectares, up by 122.5% compared to last year acreage. The stock position in NCDEX warehouse is at lower level compared to last year stocks. As on 02-Dec-2016, new Jeera stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses in Jodhpur and Unjha is totaled at 141 tonnes while it was 159 tonnes last week. Last year stocks were about 5,336 tonnes. According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the first six months (Apr-Sep) of is recorded at 70,809 tonnes, higher by 51% compared to same period last year. The exports of jeera during September 2016 down 26.3% m/m to 7,012 tonnes while it also down y/y by 8.84%. We expect Jeera futures to trade lower on expectation of further correction from the higher levels on reports good sowing progress and lower demand at higher levels but tight supplies and fresh export enquiries may support prices. Turmeric Turmeric futures recovers on Tuesday tracking physical demand however, reports of good production from new season crops capped further rise. The prices have been supported over 7,200 levels as rains are expected in the Turmeric growing regions of Telangana. Turmeric Dec 16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 2.06% lower to settle at Rs 7,218per quintal. The stock positions of Turmeric in the Exchange warehouses in the current season are only stock at Sangali while last year the stocks were stored in Duggirala, Erode and Nizamabad too. On the export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of turmeric during April-September period, up by 27% to 58,233 tonnes compared last year, as per government data. Expectations of increasing production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are putting pressure on turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was higher this year as compared last year. We expect turmeric to trade sideways to down due to good production estimates and low demand for the medium quality turmeric. However, good upcountry demand and dwindling supplies in the physical market just before the harvesting season begins may support prices. Technical Market Highlights - Spices Unit Last Prev WoW MoM YoY Jeera Spot- NCDEX /qt Jeera- NCDEX Dec 16 /qt Turmeric Spot- NCDEX /qt Turmeric- NCDEX Dec 16 /qt Technical Chart Jeera Daily NJEZ6 Jeera Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec Jan Mar-17 Spot Dec Jan Mar Chart Turmeric (BOM) Cndl, NJEZ6, , 18,350.00, 18,350.00, 17,915.00, 17,990.00, 03 Daily NTMZ6 Cndl, NTMZ6, , 7,248.00, 7,288.00, 7,202.00, 7,254.00, Turmeric Spread Matrix Closing 20-Dec Jan Juy-17 Spot Dec Apr Juy ,500 17, ,000 17,500 17,000 16, (BOM) , ,200 7,000 6,800 Unit Support Resistance Jeera NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl Turmeric NCDEX Dec 16 /qtl

7 Kapas Cotton complex traded lower on Tuesday due to lower demand from the industrial buyers at higher levels. NCDEX Kapas for Apr 17 closed 0.54% down while MCX Dec 16 cotton closed 0.68% lower. Cotton production prospects are good for market year 2016/17 though arrivals are delayed. As per latest release by CAI, the total supplies of cotton in the domestic market during 2016/17 will be lower at 408 lakh bales compared to 427 lakh bales as compared to last year supplies due less carry over stock and imports. For the current season, cotton arrivals in the country are pegged at lakh bales (lb) as on 27 November, As per Agmarknet data, during November about 34 lakh bales has arrived in the country. As per ICAC press release, India's cotton exports are seen falling 34% on year to 825,000 tonnes in (Oct-Sep) as shortage of cash has led to delays in sales of cotton and shipments to ports. On the trade front, 2016/17 export forecast is 5.3 million bales ( 170 kg bales)or / 914,000 mt. Recently, CAI estimated 356 lakh bales (170 kg each) for the season (Oct-Sep), as against the government s first estimate of lakh bales. Cotton area is down by 11.6% at lh against 116 lh last year. Global Cotton Updates ICE Cotton futures edged higher on Tuesday on good demand by the market participants on lower prices and increase in net long positions, but gains were capped by a stronger dollar. The data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that managed money raising its net long position in cotton contracts on ICE Futures U.S. to a record high in the week to Nov. 29. It raised their net long position in cotton by 744 lots to 101,392 lots which is the highest level since the data became publicly available in USDA showed net upland sales of 202,300 running bales (RB) for the week Nov were down 21% from the previous week but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average for the 2016/17 crop. As per ICAC, world ending stocks are forecast to decrease further by 7% to 17.8 mt at the end of 2016/17 as China continues to reduce its stocks. Ending stocks in China will decreased by 13% to 11.3 mt as the Chinese government sold over 2mt from its official reserves from May through September We expect cotton prices to trade sideways due to arrivals in the physical market have been improved but the peak arrivals have not been achieved due to cash crunch. There is expectation of improved demand for new season crop from ginners and stockists as the arrivals improves. Market Highlights- Cotton Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY NCDEX Kapas Apr kgs MCX Cotton Dec 16 /Bale ICE Cotton Mar 17 USc/Lbs Cotton ZCE Yuan/t Chart Kapas-NCDEX Chart Cotton- MCX NCDEX Apr 17 contract Daily NKKJ (BOM) Cndl, NKKJ7, , , , , , 20B Daily MCOTZ6 Cndl, MCOTZ6, , 19,040.00, 19,060.00, 18,910.00, 18,930.00, , (-0.73%) MCX Dec 16 contract Cotton Spread Matrix Closing 30-Dec Jan Feb Dec Jan Feb (BOM) 19,200 18, ,900 18,600 18,300 Technical Contract Unit Support Resistance Kapas NCDEX April 17 /20 kgs Cotton MCX Dec 16 /bale

8 Prepared By Anuj Gupta Head Technical Research (Commodity & Currency) (011) Ritesh Kumar Sahu Research Analyst Agri-Commodities (022) (Ext 6165) Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai Tel: (022) MCX Member ID: / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com