Improving Dairy Farm Sustainability through Strategic Alternatives to Corn Grain Feeding

Transcription

1 Improving Dairy Farm Sustainability through Strategic Alternatives to Corn Grain Feeding Victor E. Cabrera Assistant Professor Extension Dairy Specialist Dairy Science Department 12th Annual Arlington Dairy Day Wednesday, December 10, 2008

2 Introduction The dairy industry is struggling to remain economically viable because of skyrocketing corn grain feed prices and uncertain milk price fluctuations Dairy farmers and extension faculty have indicated a need to improve dairy cattle feed efficiency in order for the dairy industry to remain economically sustainable

3 Hypothesis Effective feeding strategies that include corn grain substitution will improve economic net return in many farm and market situations in Wisconsin. These substitutions will additionally decrease dairy farm environmental impacts and promote more ecologically sustainable production systems.

4 Materials and Methods Integration of four major components into a bio-economic decision support system, the corn-replacer: 1. Compilation and analyses of data from extensive field research of corn/forage substitution, Tessmann et al. (1991); 2. Development of corn/forage substitution production models, Earleywine (2001);

5 Materials and Methods 3. Integration of grazing concentrate supplementation, Soder and Rotz (2001); Bargo et al. (2003); and 4. Development of a Markov-chain, stochastic, dynamic herd simulation model to portray real-life dairy cattle conditions, (Cabrera et al., 2006; 2008)

6 Milk Production to Different Diets Diet (TRT) Lactation Stage Week Alfalfa hay Corn grain (HMEC) Soybean meal Early-Mid-Late Early-Mid-Late Early-Mid-Late (0-12)-(13-26)-(27-44) (0-12)-(13-26)-(27-44) (0-12)-(13-26)-(27-44) % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Source: Tessmann et al. (1991)

7 Corn in diet

8 Dry Matter Intake (actual)

9 Dry Matter Intake (Predicted) DMI = * AA% * WK 383. * WK DMI = * AA% * WK * WK Source: Earleywine (2001)

10 Milk Production to Different Diets (actual)

11 Milk Production to Different Diets (Pred.) MILK = * AA * AA * Corn * WK * AA * WK * Corn * WK 086. * WK SBM * AA * SBM * SBM * WK 1 MILK13 44 = * Corn * SBM * WK * WK * AA * WK * Corn * WK 1 1 Source: Earleywine (2001)

12 Feed Efficiency (actual)

13 Feed Efficiency (Predicted)

14 Income Over Feed Cost Feed Ingredient Alfalfa hay Corn grain SBM Milk Price (June 08) $177/ton $6/bu $358/ton $18/cwt

15 Feed Cost

16 Milk Revenue

17 Income Over Feed Cost IOFC ($/day) Wk $4.18/d $3.98/d $3.77/d TRT 1 TRT 2 TRT $3.12/d $2.64/d TRT 4 TRT Week of Lactation

18 Income Over Feed Cost Feed Ingredient Alfalfa hay Corn grain SBM Milk Price $172/ton $4/bu $265/ton $15.5/cwt

19 Income Over Feed Cost IOFC ($/day) Wk $3.71/d $3.39/d $3.08/d $2.33/d $1.85/d TRT 1 TRT 2 TRT 3 TRT 4 TRT Week of Lactation

20 Income Over Feed Cost Feed Ingredient Alfalfa hay Corn grain SBM Milk Price (Oct 08) $172/ton $8/bu $265/ton $15.5/cwt

21 Income Over Feed Cost IOFC ($/day) Wk $2.61/d $2.57/d TRT 1 TRT $2.54/d TRT $2.19/d $1.85/d TRT 4 TRT Week of Lactation

22 Income Over Feed Cost Feed Ingredient Alfalfa hay Corn grain SBM Milk Price $100/ton $8/bu $265/ton $15.5/cwt

23 Income Over Feed Cost IOFC ($/day) Wk $3.64/d $3.78/d $3.84/d TRT 1 TRT 2 TRT $3.68/d $3.39/d TRT 4 TRT Week of Lactation

24 Income Over Feed Cost

25 Optimal Corn Usage (Diminishing returns) Quantity of Milk (lb) Marginal Milk/Corn (lb milk/lb corn) Corn in Diet (lb)

26 Optimal Corn Usage (Break-even) 3 Marginal Value Milk/Corn ($) Corn in Diet (lb)

27 Milk Production Because of Corn MPMILK / Corn = ( 046. * Corn * WK * Corn ) / Corn in Diet Marginal Milk/Corn (lb milk/lb corn) % 34% 27% 19% 17% 9% Feed Corn grain Milk Price $6/bu $18/cwt Week of Lactation

28 Corn:Milk Price Ratio 0.9 Milk:Corn 6 Corn($/lb)/Milk($/lb) Milk($/lb)/ Corn($/lb) Jan-1970 Corn:Milk Oct

29 Optimal Corn Usage Corn in Diet Marginal Value Milk/Corn ($) % 34% 27% 19% 17% 9% Feed Corn grain Milk Price $6/bu $18/cwt Week of Lactation

30 Milk Production Because of Corn Week of Lactation Marginal Milk/Corn (lb milk/lb corn) Feed Corn grain Milk Price $6/bu $18/cwt Corn in Diet (lb)

31 Optimal Corn Usage Week of Lactation Marginal Value Milk/Corn ($) Feed Corn grain Milk Price $6/bu $18/cwt Corn in Diet (lb)

32 Optimal Corn Usage Corn in Diet Marginal Value Milk/Corn ($) Feed Corn grain Milk Price $4/bu $15.5/cwt % 34% 27% 19% 17% 9% Week of Lactation

33 Optimal Corn Usage Week of Lactation Marginal Value Milk/Corn ($) Feed Corn grain Milk Price $4/bu $15.5/cwt Corn in Diet (lb)

34 Optimal Corn Usage Corn in Diet Marginal Value Milk/Corn ($) 2 1 Feed Corn grain Milk Price $8/bu $15.5/cwt % 34% 27% 19% 17% 9% Week of Lactation

35 Optimal Corn Usage Week of Lactation Marginal Value Milk/Corn ($) Feed Corn grain Milk Price $8/bu $15.5/cwt Corn in Diet (lb)

36 Optimal Corn Usage

37 Markov-Chains Stage = Time State = Characteristics of cow or group of cows Transition = Probabilities that determine the flow from one state to another state

38 Markov-Chains All potential states a cow (or group of cows) can be in a specific stage Example: (5,400 states) 9 parities 20 month in milk 10 pregnancy (0-non-preg., 1-9 preg.) 3 production levels 12 months in a year

39 Markov-Chains Some Biological Data Needs

40 Markov-Chains Forecast of a dairy herd using Markov Chains pregnancy par mim

41 Optimal IOFC Using Herd Structure Alfalfa hay Corn grain SBM Milk Price $177/ton $7/bu $350/ton $18/cwt Diet Lactation Weeks Total IOFC $35,463/wk Milking cows 1000 Culling rate 30% Diet Total IOFC Lactation Weeks $24,642/wk

42 The Corn-replacer DSS

43 Limitations and Continued Work 1) Incorporate milk fat and protein, 2) Study and integrate grazing field observations, 3) Incorporate other forages, especially corn silage, 4) Incorporate herd and group feed analyses, 5) Distinction of cow's parity, 6) Incorporate high producing herds, and 7) Account for unintended impacts

44 Improving Dairy Farm Sustainability through Strategic Alternatives to Corn Grain Feeding Victor E. Cabrera Acknowledgements Ken Bolton Randy Shaver Bruce Jones Jim Leverich