Temporal Analysis of Rice Yield and Climatic Trends in Pakistan

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1 World Applied Sciences Journl 24 (10): , 2013 ISSN IDOSI Publictions, 2013 DOI: /idosi.wsj Temporl Anlysis of Rice Yield nd Climtic Trends in Pkistn Nveen Ftim nd Rbi Shbbir Deprtment of Environmentl Sciences, Ftim Jinnh Women University, The Mll Rwlpindi, Pkistn Submitted: Dec 14, 2012; Accepted: Jn 26, 2013; Published: Sep 15, 2013 Abstrct: Climte in its sptil nd temporl inconsistency is one of the chief cuses for determining griculturl productivity in region. Climtic impcts should be kept into mind while developing long term griculturl policies. This study imed t investigting the chnge in rice production in Pkistn from using the GIS techniques nd the impcts of climte chnge on rice production. Pkistn is very rich in the production of rice nd lot of foreign exchnge is erned through exporting rice. The results showed tht rice production incresed in Pkistn in ll the four provinces of Pkistn. The highest percentge increse ws observed in Punjb. However, when the country fced drought fter 2000, the production in KPK nd Sindh ws decresed which gin ttined its incresing level in the following yers. The correltion of climtic vribles with rice production vribles indicted significnt reltion nd the regression nlysis reveled tht high level of vrince in rice production could be explined by climtic prmeters under study. This spect could be linked with some other possible best options to increse the rice production to higher level in order to ensure sustinble rice production. Key words: Pkistn Climte Chnge Rice Production GIS INTRODUCTION climte chnge, regionlly s well s globlly. It hs been confirmed tht when there is no climte chnge, the crops Climte Chnge is chiefly cused by different would rect positively to incresed CO 2 concentrtion economic ctions clled s n externlity nd mny while when it is coupled with elevted tempertures, developing countries re locted t such geogrphicl vribility in precipittion ptterns nd the likelihood of position tht they re most susceptible to climte chnge. incresed occurrence of severe events like drought nd The IPCC predicted tht if there is no strtegy to decrese floods, then ll these fctors merged together will the emissions of GHG s, then they cn increse from 550 decrese yields nd will rise the risks of production in ppm to 700 ppm t the middle of this present century nd mny res of the world [4]. due to this, the temperture cn increse from 3 C to 6 C Pkistn resides in the South Asin section between [1]. The effects of climte chnge cn pper in the form N of ltitude nd E of longitude. The most of recurrent floods, drought nd fmine, shortge of food, significnt re of Pkistn s economy is griculture, non supporting wether events, newly discovered ccountble for providing income to 70% of the diseses, rise of se level nd mny other fctors [2]. inhbitnts which re directly or indirectly ssocited with The most exposed nd susceptible sector to climte griculture. The popultion of Pkistn is pproximtely chnge is evidently, griculture. A number of fctors 160 million out of which 32% people re existing under the ssocited with climte chnge like the precipittion poverty level nd they hve to fce mny grve pttern, chnge in temperture etc. gretly impcts chllenges [6]. Due to indirect effect of diminishing crop s griculture which includes reduction in griculturl yields, the susceptibility of the poor to food insecurity productivity nd the growth time for different crops re will prticulrly increse. During the present decde, the lso restricted [3]. Every country is fretful bout the costs strength nd occurrence of intense climte events hve nd profits tht my rise in the future from the effects of incresed in Pkistn. The geogrphicl setting nd socio- Corresponding Author: Rbi Shbbir, Deprtment of Environmentl Sciences, Ftim Jinnh Women University, The Mll Rwlpindi, Pkistn. Tel: ,

2 economic setup of Pkistn is the min reson behind climte chnge. It is the country which hs been rnked s th the 12 most country, which is prone to the consequences of climte chnge. Rice is the stple food for more thn hlf of the present world popultion. South nd South Est Asi re the biggest consumers of rice nd they re going to require 2.5 % yerly increse in the production of rice. The positive wether nd environmentl conditions should be there for constnt increse in rice production wheres; unfvorble conditions could put the food security of world in dnger. Rice is the second min food crop in Pkistn nd 6 % of dily ingestion of clories is ttributed to rice. It is very importnt for Pkistn from export point of view nd Pkistn hs been very good in exporting romtic Bsmti rice [7]. Climte impct on rice production cn be estimted more precisely in lrge res by new concepts tht hve been evolved with different processes of GIS, GPS (Globl Positioning System) nd Remote Sensing (RS) nd in this wy sptil dtbses cn be produced which cn help the policy formers to clculte the importnt crop yields more precisely [8]. Different studies hve been done by using the bove concept nd estimting the impct of climte chnge on griculture by integrting GIS with other models. Zhi nd Zhung [9] conducted study on the region of South Est Asi to exmine the economic losses due to climte chnge impct by using GCE (Goddrd Cumulus Ensemble) model. Jnsen [10] used significnt dt of wether from seven res of Estern Asi to investigte the effect of climte chnge on the rice production. Leemns nd Solomon [11] used plin model on the bsis of temperture, sunlight nd precipittion dt in GIS bckground to predict the effect of these climtic vribles on vrious crop s production t globl scle. Jintrwet nd Sringm [12] did study in Thilnd using Decision Support Systems (DSS) pproch for the evlution of lrge scle crop yields nd provincil level production using ArcGIS softwre. Prk nd Ko [13] used ArcView softwre to recognize sptil vrition mong different counties of Kore to determine mjor reson between high yield re nd low yield re in rice production. Olbode et l. [14] stressed on the ppliction of Crop Informtion System (CIS) using different GIS techniques for sustinble rice yield in Kwr Stte, Nigeri. The present study involved the study of rice production ptterns in Pkistn nd reltionship between environmentl dt of the region, pertining to climte chnge nd its consequent effect on rice production during the lst two decdes i.e to The objectives of the study were i) to monitor the production ptterns of rice in Pkistn from ii) detection of chnge in rice production in Pkistn through mp construction nd visuliztion iii) to develop correltion between chnge in production nd climte chnging prmeters for the purpose of informing policy mkers. MATERIALS AND METHODS The dt product required for the study included generl Pkistn mp tht ws obtined from Survey of Pkistn (1: 50,000). There were two types of dt bse. Themtic mp or bse mp ws prepred using generl Pkistn mp on 1:50,000 scle employing the tools of ArcGIS. The mp ws scnned up to the resolution tht mde ll the importnt fetures cler nd vivid. It ws then geo referenced by using the WGS 1984 coordinte system. Attributed dt ws of secondry source dt which ws collected through published litertures, reports, online resource, librries nd through other concerned orgniztions nd deprtments minly from Ministry of Environment, Pkistn Meteorologicl Deprtment nd Federl Bureu of Sttistics. ArcGIS 9.2 softwre ws used to represent the chnge in production in vrious regions of Pkistn. The sptil nd ttribute dt bse were then integrted through ArcGIS. The Chloropleth mps were developed to visully disply the chnge in rice production in Pkistn during the nlysis period of 1989 to Then correltion nd regression nlyses were both employed to nlyze the dt to estblish reltionship between climtic dt nd crop yield; nd lso, to show the percentge contribution of the vribles in crop yield. RESULTS The min objective of this study ws to monitor the chnge in rice production in vrious provinces of Pkistn. GIS tools minly Arc Mp hs been dopted. The mps were generted bsed upon the dt derived from different sources, depicting nnul chnge during the lst two decdes (1989 to 2009). Rice Production: Rice production in Pkistn holds n extremely importnt position in griculture nd the ntionl economy. Pkistn is the world's fourth lrgest producer of rice, fter Chin, Indi nd Indonesi. 1331

3 Tble 1: The Province wise Rice Production in Pkistn Rice Production (000 tonnes) Province/ Territory Punjb KPK Sindh Bluchistn Pkistn Tble 2: Totl Rice Production in Pkistn in 1989 nd 2009 nd Annul chnge (%) Rice Production (000 tonnes) Annul Chnge rte % Province/ Territory Yers Punjb (+) KPK (+) Sindh (+) Bluchistn (+) Pkistn (+) Ech yer, it produces n verge of 6 million tonnes nd together with the rest of the Indin subcontinent; the country is responsible for supplying 30% of the world's pddy rice output. The province wise distribution of totl rice production in Pkistn during the nlysis period is tbulted in Tble 1. Pkistn enjoys ner monopoly sttus in the export of fine romtic Bsmti rice which fetches price three to four times tht of the norml corse vrieties in the interntionl mrkets [15]. There ws quntum jump in the rice production in sixties due to lrge scle doption of high yielding semi-dwrf vrieties. Since then there is mrginl increse in the production. After 2000, severe drought occurred due to which the production ws more ffected in KPK nd Sindh but the momentum ws ttined in the following yers. In order to ssess the chnge in rice production in Pkistn during the lst two decdes, production mps of 1989 nd 2009 were generted for inter comprisons which re shown in Figure 1. The comprison of rice production in yers 1989 nd 2009 showed tht the totl production of rice ws incresed by 5.79% per yer (Tble 2). All the provinces observed n increment in totl rice production but the mximum increse ws observed in Punjb while minimum ws observed in KPK. In this study, the production re nd the consumption ptterns in this time period were lso ssessed. Nerly 2.8 million hectres or 11% of Pkistn s totl griculturl re is plnted with rice [16]. Are under rice more thn doubled from 1948 to 1978 nd since then it hs remined stble t round 2 million hectres. During , rice re hs incresed t bout 2% per nnum. On overll bsis, rice re incresed from 790 thousnd hectres in to 2107 thousnd hectres in indicting % increse over the 44 yers period. The production re nd consumption trends in the study period re shown in Figure 2 nd 3. Fig. 1: Rice production in Pkistn in 1989 nd

4 Fig. 2: Totl Rice Production Are in Different Provinces of Pkistn from 1989 to 2009 Fig. 3: Totl Rice Consumption in Different Provinces of Pkistn from 1989 to 2009 The Figure 2 shows tht in Punjb, Sindh The Figure 3 shows tht the rice consumption in nd Bluchistn, the production re ws incresed different provinces of Pkistn which mostly followed n from , nd thousnd hectres in incresing trend due to popultion increse nd this 1989 to , nd thousnd hectres in consumption ws gin dominted by the province of 2009 respectively. Only KPK fced reduction in Punjb. About 60% of the crop is destined for locl totl production re from 61.8 to 61.3 thousnd consumption nd the reminder exported. The hectres. consumption demnd for rice t present, forms more thn According to Qureshi et l. [15] bout 92% of hlf of the production of rice nd it ws on verge 52% Pkistn's rice production is concentrted in the of the rice production [17]. Punjb nd Sindh provinces nd nerly ll the rice is grown on irrigted lnd. Punjb is the leding rice growing DISCUSSION province with bout 61% rice re nd concentrtes on Bsmti-rice for export, while Sind produces high yielding Climte is n importnt fctor of griculturl vrieties nd trditionl vrieties mostly for domestic productivity. Climte chnge is cused by the relese of consumption covering bout 31% of totl rice re. Of the greenhouse gses into the tmosphere. These gses remining 8% re under rice, 5% lies in the North-West ccumulte in the tmosphere, which results in globl Frontier nd 3% in the Bluchistn provinces, wrming. However, the relibility of the predictions on respectively. On the whole, Bsmti-rice ccounts for climte chnge is uncertin nd no firm timescles re bout 52% of the totl rice re. known bout the result of increse in the concentrtion of 1333

5 Fig. 4: Chnge in the selected climtic vribles during the study period in different provinces of Pkistn greenhouse gses within the tmosphere [18]. The climte even lter the distribution of gro-ecologicl zones; chnge effects on griculture will differ cross the world. incresed CO 2 is expected to hve positive effect on Chnges in temperture s well s chnges in rinfll griculturl production due to greter wter use ptterns nd the increse in CO 2 levels projected to efficiency nd higher rtes of plnt photosynthesis. ccompny climte chnge will hve importnt effects on On the other hnd, griculturl losses cn result globl griculture, especilly in the tropicl regions. The from climte vribility nd the incresed frequency suitble lnd res for cultivtion of key stple crops of chnges in tempertures nd precipittion could undergo geogrphic shifts in response to climte including floods nd droughts. Similrly, ccording to chnge. El-Mrsfwy et l. [21] nd Edeh et l. [22] climte Generlly, there re mny fctors influencing crop vribility nd chnge hve direct, often dverse, production nd these include soil, relief, climte nd effect on the quntity nd qulity of griculturl diseses mong others. In reltion to climte, rinfll is the production like rice. dominnt controlling vrible in tropicl griculture since The present study ws concerned with the it supplies soil moisture for crops nd grsses for nimls. determintion of effect of climte on the production of rice According to Ayode [19], griculture lrgely depends on in Pkistn so following climtic vribles were selected climte to function. Hence, precipittion, wind, i-e, Temperture ( C), Humidity (%), Precipittion (mm) temperture, reltive humidity nd other climtic nd wind Speed (knots per hour). The chnge in these prmeters ffect nd solely determine the globl vribles in different provinces of Pkistn during the distribution of crops nd livestock s well s their study period is shown in Figure 4. productivity. Kurukulsuriy nd Rosenthl [20] These climtic vribles were linked with rice described the four wys in which climte ffect vribles through the correltion nd regression nlysis griculturl production; chnges in temperture nd of the four provinces seprtely which re given in precipittion directly ffect crop production nd cn Tble 3 nd Tble 4 respectively. 1334

6 Tble 3: Person Correltion Anlysis of Rice Production in reltion to climtic vribles Punjb Temperture Humidity Wind Speed Precipittion Production KPK Production Sindh Production Bluchistn Production Correltion is significnt t the 0.01 level (1-tiled) Correltion is significnt t the 0.05 level (1-tiled) Tble 4: Regression Anlysis for Rice Production nd Climtic Vribles Std. Error of 2 2 R R Adjusted R the Estimte Punjb Production KPK Production Sindh Production Bluchistn Production Predictors: (Constnt), Wind Speed, Temperture, Humidity, Precipittion The correltion nlysis of rice production in reltion to climtic vribles of four provinces is shown in Tble 3. In Punjb the significnt ssocition of rice production with temperture is (coefficient=. 839, P=. 038), humidity (coefficient= -.948, P=. 007), wind speed (coefficient=. 889, P=. 022) nd precipittion (coefficient= -.866, P=. 029). In KPK, rice production is significntly correlted with temperture (coefficient=. 810, P=. 048), humidity (coefficient= -.844, P=. 036), wind speed (coefficient=. 919, P=. 014) nd precipittion (coefficient= -.962, P=. 004). In Sindh rice production is significntly correlted with temperture (coefficient=. 998, P=. 000), humidity (coefficient= -.914, P=. 015) nd precipittion (coefficient= -.910, P=. 016) while unssocited with wind speed. In Bluchistn rice production is significntly correlted with temperture (coefficient=. 928, P=. 012) nd precipittion (coefficient= -.864, P=. 029) while unssocited with wind speed nd humidity. Temperture regime gretly influences not only the growth durtion but lso the growth pttern of the rice plnt. During the growing seson, the men temperture nd the temperture sum, rnge, distribution pttern, or diurnl chnges or combintion of these my be highly correlted with the grin yields [23]. As the temperture remined in optimum rnge for ll the different stges of growth of rice production during the study period, there ws n increse in production of rice nd it ws positively nd significntly correlted. The effects of reltive humidity re generlly confused with the effects of solr energy nd temperture. The verge reltive humidity before hrvest follows trend opposite tht of the solr rdition vlues of the sme period. Therefore, no importnce is ttributed to the high negtive correltion between reltive humidity nd grin yield. However, long dew period often cuses incresed incidence of blst disese in rice. In such cses, the effects of high reltive humidity re often confounded by the night temperture regime, which cuses long dew period [24]. The present study demonstrted tht the rice production or yield ws negtively nd significntly correlted with reltive humidity. The reson could be ttributed to the fct which hs been mentioned bove tht if the dew period previls for longer period of time, then it cn cuse blst disese in rice due to which the production could be reduced. A gentle wind during the growing period of the rice plnt is known to improve grin yields, becuse it increses turbulence in the cnopy. The ir blown round the plnts replenishes the CO 2 supply of the plnt [25]. On the other hnd strong winds often desiccte the pnicles of the rice crop, incresing floret sterility nd sometimes incresing the number of bortive endosperms. Strong winds lso enhnce the spred of bcteril lef diseses of rice [25]. Dry winds hve lso been known to cuse desicction of dry leves. Wind cn lso cuse mechnicl dmge to leves [26]. In the present study it ws observed tht wind ws positively nd significntly correlted with rice production in Punjb nd KPK while in Sindh it showed no significnt reltionship. However, in Bluchistn this reltionship ws negtive, which might be ttributed to the intensity of wind but this reltionship ws not found to be significnt. Vribility in mount nd distribution of rinfll is the most importnt fctor limiting yields of rin fed rice [27], which constitutes bout 80% of the rice grown in South nd Southest Asi. Annully, 2000 mm of rinfll is dequte for one rice crop provided rinfll distribution is resonbly uniform. Pkistn often gets indequte or 1335

7 excessive rinfll during the riny seson. As result, drought or flood, or sometimes both cuse excessive dmge to rin fed rice production. So, Pkistn grows rice primrily with irrigtion due to which the production is incresed. Therefore, the observed reltionship with rinfll/precipittion ws significntly negtive. A few similr studies hve been conducted ll over the world which studied the effect of climtic vribles on the crop yield. Ajewole nd Iynd [28] studied the effect of climte chnge on coco yield with the use of correltion nlysis nd concluded tht optiml temperture nd miniml rinfll would give better yield of coco in Nigeri. Olnrewju [29] studied the effect of reltive humidity on different crops in Edu/Lfiji nd he found tht crops like groundnut, millet, sorghum nd rice were negtively correlted with reltive humidity. Similr results were obtined by Tunde et l. [30], when the effect of climtic vribles like temperture, reltive humidity nd rinfll on crop production in Nigeri ws studied. The regression nlysis computed for the crop production nd climtic vribles reveled tht the rice production hve coefficient of determintion of 0.91, 0.97, 0.71 nd 0.97 for Punjb, KPK, Sindh nd Bluchistn respectively. This indictes tht 91, 97, 71 nd 97% of the vrince in rice production cn be explined by the climtic prmeters under study (Tble 4). The impliction is tht 7, 3, 29 nd 3% of the vrince in rice production cn be respectively explined by other fctors not included in the study. Climtic vribles therefore, hve impct on selected crop yield over the yers under study. The study hs ctully reveled tht other fctors, such s solr rdition, type of soil, soil fertility nd frm methods my lso be responsible for crop yield. Tunde et l. [30] observed the 76% of the vrince in rice production. In the present study the chnge in productivity of rice ws determined by using ArcGIS nd climtic effect on the griculturl vribles of rice were studied with the help of correltion nd regression nlysis. The chnge in rice production ws found out to be positive nd the production incresed considerbly in ll the provinces. Similrly, Kim et l. [31] studied the reltionship mong rice yield nd wether vribles in Kore. The results reveled tht verge rice yield ws positively relted to temperture nd negtively ssocited with precipittion. Knox et l. [32] presented report in which they gve the findings of the projected impcts of climte chnge on food crop productivity in South Asi nd Afric till the yer 2020 s. The results were found positive for rice production in Pkistn. Climte in the recent times hs no significnt negtive impcts on the production of rice in Pkistn. However, it is hoped tht Pkistn does not fce ny extreme climtic fluctution in the ner future otherwise it cn ggrvte the sitution of rice production in the country. In the future, these positive spects cn be linked with good technology nd irrigtion system so tht the production of rice cn be further incresed to ern more foreign exchnge nd profits for the country. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS The present study ws crried out to nlyze the impct of climte chnge on rice yield in Pkistn. It hs been nlyzed tht the climtic vribles hve significnt impct on the production of rice. Rice production in Pkistn followed n incresing trend from In the future, the temperture is expected to rise more nd it cn even cross the optimum limit. Similrly, drought conditions sometimes previl nd the mjor cuse of decresed production fter 2000 in Pkistn ws drought. When drought previls, production reduces nd the foreign exchnge which is erned by exporting rice will lso decrese. So the rice will hve to be produced in such wy tht it cn dpt to the future chnges in climte which re expected to ggrvte in the future. Adpttion involves djustments to decrese the vulnerbility of rice production to climte chnges, while mitigtion focuses on reducing the emission of greenhouse gses from rice production nd minimizing deforesttion resulting from uplnd rice cultivtion. There re rnge of technologicl options tht re presently vilble or which cn potentilly be developed in the ner future for enhncing the rice production systems bility to dpt to nd mitigte the effects of globl climte chnges s mentioned below. Rice vrieties hve different bilities to tolerte high temperture, slinity, drought nd floods. The selection of pproprite rice vrieties is, therefore, technicl option for dpttion to globl climte chnges. Also, the development of rice vrieties tht hve not only high-yielding potentil, but lso good degree of tolernce to high temperture, slinity, drought nd flood is strongly recommended. As lredy mentioned tht increse in CO 2 concentrtion could increse rice yield so the high CO2 concentrtion present in the tmosphere under globl wrming could be hrnessed to increse the productivity of the rice crop. 1336

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