COMET-FARM and COMET-Planner Updates

Transcription

1 COMET-FARM and COMET-Planner Updates C-AGG Chicago July 19, 2017 Keith Paustian, Mark Easter, Amy Swan, Steve Williams, and Kevin Brown Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory & Dept. Soil and Crop Sciences Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO Adam Chambers Natural Resources Conservation Service Environmental Markets Leader Portland, OR

2 COMET-Farm TM & COMET-Planner TM Tools for conservation and best management practice scenario analyses

3 COMET-Farm TM & COMET-Planner TM Conservation Scenario Analysis Change in Management Change in GHG Emissions COMET-Farm TM Cropland Baseline Scenario (Field-specific historical management) Tillage Reduction Improved Fertilizer Management Add Cover Crops Field- and GHG source specific reporting COMET-Planner TM Business as Usual (regional average ) NRCS Conservation Practices = Regionally-averaged Practice Benefit

4 Overview of the Tools: COMET-Farm Implements the peer-reviewed, USDA-sanctioned entity-level inventory methods Soil-related GHG emissions DayCent dynamic model, also used in the U.S. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Livestock-related GHG emissions statistical models based on USDA and university research, largely consistent with models used in the U.S. National Inventory Energy-related GHG emissions based on the models used in the USDA/NRCS Energy Tool along with supplemental peer-reviewed research results Uncertainty calculator Empirical and Monte-Carlo

5 COMET-Farm is a platform! User interface Mapping tools Drag&Drop Pull-down menus Shape file uploads API Tables & Graphic output Spreadsheet downloads Backend data Landcover SSURGO - soils PRISM - climate Management practice defaults (MLRA resolved) Models Empirical models Dynamic model - DayCent

6 COMET-Farm: How it works Web Interface Location Activities Results CSU Server Historic Rotations Climate & Soil Equation Factors Empirical Models Outputs

7 COMET-Farm: Work flow Climate and Soil Datasets

8 COMET-Farm: Updates Drag and drop rotation builder (complete) Application Programming Interface (complete) Upgrades release August 2017 Addition of specialty crops Uncertainty estimation N2O estimation methods improvements

9 COMET-Farm Updates: API Web Service Allow model runs from other web tools Outside Users: Registries Aggregators Agencies Others? COMET-Farm TM & USDA GHG Methods: Croplands Livestock Agroforestry/Forestry

10 COMET-Farm Updates: Specialty Crops COMET-Farm previously did not include specialty fruit and vegetable crops Working with California Dept. of Food and Agriculture to add 14 crops Work started in Dec. 2015; completed by August 2017 New Crops: Almonds Broccoli Citrus: Oranges, Lemons/Limes, Mandarins/Tangelos, Grapefruit Grapes: Table, Raisin, Wine R1, Wine R2, Wine R3, Wine R4 Lettuce: Head, Leaf, Romaine Pistachios Strawberry Tomatoes: Fresh, Processing Walnuts

11 COMET-Farm Updates: Specialty Crops California Learning Tours

12 COMET-Farm Updates: Specialty Crops Integration into COMET-Farm TM Management Cropland Management in COMET-Farm: Planting and harvest Tillage Nitrogen Fertilizer Application Manure/Compost Application Irrigation Liming Burning Specialty Crop Management: Novel irrigation systems (pending) Orchard renewal Orchard pruning and thinning Mulches

13 COMET-Farm Updates: Specialty Crops Integration of new crops into COMET-Farm TM DayCent Parameterization Improving DayCent with Experimental Data: Using measurement data from research plots and farms Most studies in CA, with a few sites in other states

14 COMET-Farm Updates: Specialty Crops Integration of new crops into COMET-Farm TM DayCent Validation Testing DayCent at regional scales: Select random points for each crop using NASS-CDL Build typical regional management scenarios with cost and return studies, etc. Compare yields with countylevel reported yield data

15 COMET-Farm Updates: Reporting Uncertainty in COMET-Farm TM Monte Carlo method implemented for all source categories Uncertainty reported as +%/-% of mean for 95%CI, for Baseline and projection scenario GHGs Change in emissions between baseline and projection Goal: Include uncertainty in the tool by August Uncertainty for Soil Carbon stock changes in Fall 2017.

16 Overview of the Tools: COMET-Planner Original Version Released January 2015 Provides generalized estimates of carbon sequestration and GHG emissions following adoption of NRCS Conservation Practices Based on meta-analyses and IPCC Tier 1/2 methods

17 Overview of the Tools: COMET-Planner Updated Version 1) Aligning GHG reduction estimates with COMET-Farm and the USDA entity-scale GHG inventory methods 2) Improving the spatial resolution of estimates from the sub-national scale to multi-county regions 3) Adding options for implementing multiple interpretations of Conservation Practice Standards 4) Adding options for common combinations of practices

18 COMET-Planner Updates COMET-Planner v 1 COMET-Planner v 2 Quantification Methods US-specific meta-analyses and IPCC Tier 1 & 2 Methods USDA Entity Scale Inventory Methods and COMET-Farm Spatial Scale Sub-national Multi-county regions Management Options Single interpretation of each CPS Multiple interpretations per CPS Practice Planning Evaluate impact of one practice per field Evaluate impact of common combinations of practices

19 COMET-Planner: Constructing Conservation Scenarios CONSERVATION PRACTICE STANDARD BASELINE CONSERVATION PRACTICE Full tillage No tillage or strip tillage

20 COMET-Planner: GHG Estimation Methods State Typical practices/average inputs Crop Non-Irri N Irrigated N COMET-Farm API California alfalfa 0 0 California barley 3 10 California corn California cotton 8 15 CPS Baseline California dry field beans 0 0 Random point sample Cropland Data Layer Crops

21 COMET-Planner: GHG Estimation Methods Climate and Soil Datasets

22 COMET-Planner: Results and Evaluation Total GHG Reductions No tillage or strip tillage 2.00 GHG Reductions (Mg CO 2 Eq ha -1 yr ) Soil Carbon Soil Nitrous Oxide

23 COMET-Planner: Web Tool and Reporting Land Use Groups

24 Web Tool and Reporting CPS Practice Implementation On-the-fly results and report generation

25 Web Tool and Reporting

26 CA Healthy Soils Incentive Program

27 Questions?

28 Greenhouse Gas Benefits of Conservation Practices

29 Agricultural Conservation Practices

30 Agricultural Conservation Practices The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) has developed almost 200 agricultural conservation practice standards

31 Greenhouse Gas Benefits of Conservation Practices

32 Evaluating Greenhouse Gas Benefits of Conservation Practices

33 Constructing Conservation Scenarios BASELINE CONSERVATION PRACTICE Single cropping Seasonal non-legume cover crop

34 GHG Estimation Methods

35 Results and Evaluation GHG Reductions (Mg CO 2 Eq ha -1 yr -1 ) Soil Carbon Soil Nitrous Oxide

36 Status and Future Plans - Beta version for CA - Full release late winter Detailed documentation - Refine livestock manure management practices - Add practices for rice - Add practices for orchards/vineyards - COMET-Farm improvements - Organic soils?