Adaptations to Climate Change

Transcription

1 Adaptations to Climate Change FAB-465 Lecture 9 Annual vs Perennial crops What are the advantages and limitations? Agricultural practices Pests Food processing transport Tillage vs no tillage 1

2 Scope of the Problem ~ Billion Hectares of global land under crop production ~ 3.5 Billion Hectares for grazing ~ 4.5 Billion Hectares forests (for different human uses) Intensive fish farming Impact of climate change Emissions of GHG warming of ~ 0.1 C/decade Emissions of major GHGs increasing Carbon dioxide concentration increasing Rise in temperature Sea level rising Lack of progress in developing global emissions reduction agreements Rising global temperatures will have non-linear and negative impact on existing agricultural activities 2

3 Diversity of Agri Practices Range of climates Environmental variables Cultural, institutional and economic factors The interactions of their factors Large array of possible adaptation options Engagement of all decision makers is essential (farmers, agribusiness, policymakers) Science needs to adapt! Efficiency, Productivity and the C footprint in Livestock Industry Improving productivity (i.e., animal protein output per unit of input) reduced resource use and carbon emissions dilution of maintenance effect Maintenance nutrients proxy for inputs (e.g., feed, land, water, and fossil fuels) and outputs like GHGs 3

4 Improved Dairy Productivity and C Footprint Dairy Industry and C footprint Cows produce CH 4 through enteric fermentation The link between climate change and livestock production is a relatively recent notion Modern livestock production causes climate change Extensive systems akin to historical management are far more environmentally friendly 4

5 Food for thought? The CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from enteric fermentation and manure produced by the 60 million American bison that roamed the US plains until mass slaughter in 1880 are equal to double the carbon produced by the US dairy industry in 2007 In 1944, the US dairy population peaked at 25.6 million dairy cattle, producing 53.0 billion kilograms of milk annually (USDA, 2009) Fed a pasture-based diet with occasional supplemental corn or soy Artificial insemination, antibiotics and supplemental hormones were not very popular 5

6 The 2007 US dairy herd contained 9.2 million cows producing 84.2 billion kilograms of milk per year Improvements in management, nutrition, and genetics led to a 4-fold increase in milk yield per cow between 1944 and 2007 proof of concept for the dilution of maintenance effect increased milk production per cow means that fewer lactating animals are required to produce a set quantity of milk and the size of the supporting herd (i.e., dry cows, bulls, and heifer and bull replacements) is also reduced. The 2007 US dairy industry required only 21% of the dairy population and therefore 23% of the feedstuffs, 10% of the land, and 35% of the water to produce a set quantity of milk. Manure output per unit of milk produced in 2007 was 24% of that in 1944 total carbon footprint per unit of milk was reduced by 63%. Despite the increase in total milk production between 1944 and 2007, total carbon footprint of the US dairy industry was reduced by 41%. 6

7 Climate Change Adaptation Adjustment in management strategies to actual or expected climatic conditions or their effects In order to reduce risks And realise opportunities Climate change adaptation and sustainable agriculture..adaptability and flexibility over time to respond to the demands for food and fibre (both high and low), its demands on natural resources for production, and its ability to protect the soil and the resources Wilson and Tyrchniewicz, 1995 Higher adaptive capacity higher resilience 7

8 Considerations for adaptations Different forms of adaptations Different scale of adaptations Undertaken by different agents Producers; agribusiness; industry; organisations; government Major Adaptation Strategies Scenario based approach Top down Assumed future climate Generating estimates of future climates Then suggest adaptations Use of General Circulation Models Broader to specific Vulnerability perspective Bottom-up Adaptation strategy a process involving socioeconomic & policy environments, producer s perspective Examine factors that enhance or discourage adaptive capacity Assessment of these processes to adapt to future conditions 8

9 Adaptations Strategies 9

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