NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE FOR KHARIF CAMPAIGN 2010 PRESENTATION ON RABI REVIEW AND KHARIF PROSPECTS

Transcription

1 NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AGRICULTURE FOR KHARIF CAMPAIGN 2010 PRESENTATION ON RABI REVIEW AND KHARIF PROSPECTS Gurbachan Singh Agriculture Commissioner Ministry of Agriculture Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi ag.comm@nic.in

2 Rabi Review Kharif Prospects Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward

3 Kharif 2009 at a Glance : Abnormal Southwest Monsoon 4.17 m ha less coverage in rice More area under sorghum and maize 0.61 m ha more coverage under pulses 0.60 m ha less coverage in Oilseeds Kharif rice production less by m t 0.48 m t less pulses More area coverage in cotton 10.3 m ha compared to 9.40 m ha last year Oilseeds production m t against m t in Overall Kharif foodgrain production less by m t compared to

4 Rabi Scenario Strategy worked out to compensate kharif loss in Rabi Late rains (end of kharif season): Rabi prospects brightened with early sowing of oilseeds, pulses and rainfed wheat 102.3% area coverage compared to normal area under Rabi 117.3% area under pulses as compared to normal Less coverage under oilseeds mainly due to less coverage of mustard in Rajasthan

5 Overall about 2.2 lakh ha more coverage compared to last year Good timely rains in M.P., U.P. and some other States : M.P. and U.P. may harvest record wheat production. No major pest menace, bright sunshine and continued prolonged moderate winter temperatures will contribute for enhanced productivity. No significant frost damage on winter crops in northwest India Record wheat production is expected during

6 Crop Rabi Area Coverage as on Normal Area This year Last Year + over last year Wheat Rice Jowar Maize Barley Total Coarse Cereals Pulses Total foodgrains coverage (in Lakh ha)

7 Second Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains Source : DAC Crop Season nd Adv. Estimates Final Estimates Target 2 nd Adv. Estimates Rice Kharif Rabi Total Wheat C.Cereals Kharif Rabi Total Cereals Kharif Rabi Total Total Pulses Kharif Total foodgrains Rabi Total Kharif Rabi Total (Million tons)

8 Second Advance Estimates of Production Source : DAC of other Crops Crop Season Total Nine Oilseeds (lakh t) Cotton* (Total) (lakh Bales each 170 kg) Jute (lakh Bales each 180 kg) Mesta( lakh Bales each 180 kg) 2 nd Adv. Estimates Final Estimates Target 2 nd Adv. Estimates Kharif Rabi Total Jute and Mesta Sugarcane (cane) (lakh t )

9 Area, Production and Yield of Wheat Area (lakh ha) Production (lakh tons) Yield (kg/ha) Super Imposing Rainfall Temperature MSP Seeds Fertilizers Others Area (lakh h a), P ro d uctio n (lakh ton s) Y ield (kg/ ha)

10 Area, Production and Yield of Pulses Area (lakh ha) Production (lakh tons) Yield (kg/ha) Area (lakh ha), P rodu ction (lakh tons) Y ield (kg/ha) Super Imposing Rainfall Temperature MSP Seeds Fertilizers Others

11 Planning for Kharif 2010 Likely Monsoon Scenarios Below normal like 2009 Normal Above normal Pre-monsoon good showers Early onset early withdrawal Late onset, early / late withdrawal Timely onset long break late revival extended phase Extended monsoon (End September) Matching seeds, seedlings, fertilizers, machinery, plant protection, mulching materials etc. (contingency plans)

12 Hints for Productivity Enhancement : Advance Planning In situ / ex situ rain water conservation Availability of seed, fertilizers (P and K needed at sowing), plant protection equipments and pesticides etc. Promotion of yield enhancing practices SRI Quality Seeds / Hybrids Conservation / Precision Agriculture Integrated Nutrient, Water and Pest Management Strategies Water, Fodder and Feed Availability for Animals

13 All India Position of Requirement And Availability of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010 Crops Requirement Quantity in Qtls Availability Surplus/Deficit Paddy Ragi Kodo Maize Bajra Jowar Total Cereals Urd Cowpea Moong Horsegram Field Bean Moth Arhar Rajmash Total Pulses

14 All India Position of Requirement and Availability of Certified Seed During Kharif 2010 Quantity in Qtls Requirement Availability Surplus/Deficit Castor Groundnut Niger Til Soybean Sunflower Total Oilseeds Cotton Total Fibre Bajra, Napier Hybrid Guar Sudan Grass Total Fodder Grand Total

15 Issues and Strategies Related to Soil Health Management Issues Declining levels of soil organic matter Widening N: P : K Ratio Micro-nutrient deficiencies Declining response in terms of grains / kg fertilizer Heavy metal pollution Low nutrient use efficiency Strategies Site Specific Nutrient Management : Soil testing labs and soil health cards Fertilizer use as per ICAR /SAU s Maps Integrated Nutrient Management Conservation Agriculture Practices NBS: Balanced Nutrition

16 Current status of nutrient use efficiency Nutrient Efficiency percentage N P K <80 S 8-12 Zn 2-5 Fe 1-2 Cu 1-2 Mn 1-2

17 Measures to increase nutrient use efficiency Measure Nutrient Increase in nutrient use efficiency(%) Split vs. single dose application N Furrow placement vs broadcast application The incorporation of urea super granules (USG)vs split application PK N 20 The foliar vs basal application Micro-nutrients Neem coated vs prilled urea N 5-10 Preferential application of phosphorus to wheat in rice-wheat sequence P 50

18 Area under important pulse crops and major pulse producing States Major Crops Major States Crop Area (%) State Production (%) Chickpea 39 Maharashtra 20 Pigeon pea 21 M.P. 17 Mung bean 11 Rajasthan 11 Urad bean 10 U.P. 11 Lentil 7 A.P 11 Peas 5 70% of Total Production Current Production : 14.7 m t By 2020 : m t Productivity : : 659 kg / ha Import 3-4 m t / year Prices quite high Other countries kg/ha

19 Pulses production : Constraints & Strategies Constraints Poor genetic potential Inadequate quality seed availability Marginal soils /85% under rainfed Inadequate nutrition Pests : YVM, Seed treatment MSP and Trade Strategies Genetic potential Quality seeds Area expansion : Rice fallows (4 m ha) and summer moong Cropping intensity : Intercropping Diversion of upland rice area (productivity < 1.5 t/ha) Pigeon pea on rice bunds INM / IPM modules Site specific sowing and harvesting machines Blue bulls MSP and procurement

20 States with productivity less than national average Crop States with productivity less than national average Wheat West Bengal, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Bihar, M.P. Maharashtra Rice U.P., Jharkhand, Assam, Bihar, Orissa, Maharashtra, Chattisgarh Pulses Maharashtra, Chattisgarh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Karnataka Oilseeds West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, A.P., Karnataka Source : Paper circulated during Chief Ministers Conference on

21 CAGR Yield Analysis of Major Crops Rice State Yield (Kg / Hectare) CAGR of yield * ( to ) Punjab A.P Haryana W.B T.N Karnataka U.P Jharkhand Assam Bihar Orissa Maharashtra Chattisgarh All India Target CAGR 1.05 Note:* 4 th Advance Estimates **Working Group of Planning Commission (Based on TE ); Yellow : States showing CAGR less than target CAGR Green: States showing more than target CAGR

22 State CAGR of yield ( to ) Pulses Yield (Kg / Hectare) * U.P A.P M.P Bihar Gujarat Maharashtra Chattisgarh Orissa Rajasthan Karnataka All India Target CAGR** 0.24 Note:* 4 th Advance Estimates **Working Group of Planning Commission (Based on TE ); Yellow : States showing CAGR less than target CAGR: Green: States showing more than target CAGR

23 Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 1. High potential low productivity areas (Eastern U.P., Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh) - Extending Green Revolution to ER 400 crores 2. Sustaining productivity in high productivity zones (Punjab, Haryana, Western U.P.) 3. Improving productivity in Coastal States - Multiple use of resources for mixed farming - Rain water harvesting / ground water recharge - DHORUV Technology

24 Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 4. ENHANCING RAIN WATER UTILIZATION (currently 29% is utilized) India largest ground water user in the world Exploiting 230 cubic kilometers of groundwater every year (1/4 th of global total) GW supports 60% irrigation and 80% rural and urban water supply 29% of ground water blocks are semi-critical, critical and over exploited By 2025, an estimated 60% of GW blocks will be in a critical situation Country receives average annual rainfall of about 1 meter Hardly 29% of rainfall utilized. Can it be increased to 40, 50, 60??? In situ / ex situ conservation / Ground water recharge Crop diversification from high to low water demanding crops

25 Rain water Harvest : The Best Option

26 Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 5. Surplus food from small farm holdings through multienterprize agriculture Nearly 50% farmers cultivate less than one hectare Integrated farming system approach Regular income and employment A way to organic farming Rs net income / day from one ha holding A way to coup up with predicted climate change Nutritional security

27 Multi enterprise Model

28 Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 6. Soil and water conservation strategy for hilly and foot hill zones 7. Soil health and water quality issues vis-à-vis human and animal health 8. Bridging yield gaps between frontline demonstrations and district average yields 9. Area expansion through the reclamation of nearly 120 m ha waste lands : salt affected, acidic, eroded, ravines etc (dovetailing of Central Schemes like NREGA, RKVY, NHM etc.)

29 Saline Waterlogged Soils Flouride Toxicity Arsenic Toxicity

30 Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward 10 Couping-up strategies for predicted climate change : droughts, floods, heat and cold waves, frost etc 11. Conversion of waste into wealth : effective utilization of agricultural residues, waste water, use of industrial effluents 12. Remote sensing, GIS, GPS and Satellite techniques in assessment, implementation and monitoring of agricultural systems : Area coverage, crop condition and natural resources 13. Alternative livelihood opportunities in risk prone areas / alternative sources of food

31 Cold Wave of : Experience at Dehradun

32 Mango damaged by cold wave

33 ( a )

34 ( b ) Cold wave damaged crops of (a) tomato and (b) potato

35 Heat wave of March, 2004

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37 Prosopis juliflora pods: An alternate source of human food and animal feed Alternate food, fodder and energy sources in dry areas

38 14. Effective working together mechanisms between research, development and policy at the district / block levels to ensure : Second Green Revolution : The Way Forward Farmers participatory seed production (KVK s, SAUs, Agriculture Departments, NGO s Private Sector etc. at the district / block level ) Revisiting productivity of Central and State owned farms Weather based forewarning advisories at the district level 15. Food Saved is Food Produced (post harvest and storage losses)

39 THE MESSAGE : Harvest and Store Rain water for Present and Future Generations

40 THE MESSAGE : Harvest and Store Rain water for Present and Future Generations

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