Economic, social and environmental impacts of the proposed EU-Mercosur trade agreement

Transcription

1 Economic, social and environmental impacts of the proposed EU-Mercosur trade agreement Clive George School of Environment and Development University of Manchester Public Hearing on Trade Perspectives of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement, European Parliament, 13 April 2011 Slide 1

2 Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) and Impact Assessment (IA) IA introduced applies to all major EU legislation and policy conducted by EC staff (trade IAs) proportionate analysis, for approval of negotiations main focus on economic impacts in Europe SIA introduced 1999 pre-seattle part of civil society dialogue on trade policy conducted by independent institutes/consortia in-depth analysis, in parallel with negotiations economic, social, environmental impacts in Europe and partner countries Slide 2

3 IA and SIA for EU-Mercosur IA - single IA of the Market Access Strategy 2007 (all regional/bilateral negotiations after EU-ACP and EMFTA) SIA one for each agreement Conclusions of the Market Access IA gradual improvement in growth and jobs in Europe (unquantifiable) social and environmental impacts in Europe uncertain no impact on the EU's development policies unlikely to have an impact on the EU's international social and environmental objectives Slide 3 SIA for EU-Mercosur filled in the gaps conclusions similar except: liberalisation of agriculture (potential conflict with EU agriculture and energy security policies) international environmental objectives

4 Economic model results for full liberalisation of EU-Mercosur trade in goods and services economic welfare EU +0.06% GDP Brazil +1.1% GDP (Paraguay +8%) (N.B. model does not evaluate global competitiveness) Slide 4

5 Economic model results for full liberalisation of EU-Mercosur trade in goods and services economic welfare EU +0.06% GDP Brazil +1.1% GDP (Paraguay +8%) (N.B. model does not evaluate global competitiveness) production changes motor vehicles EU +1.5% Brazil -24% (Paraguay -100%) machinery EU +1.4% Brazil -23% (Paraguay -59%) financial services EU +0.1% Brazil -1.2% (Paraguay -21%) grains EU -6% Brazil +21% (Paraguay +16%) animal products EU -3.5% Brazil +29% (Paraguay +40%) processed food EU -5% Brazil +48% (Paraguay +77%) Slide 5

6 Social impacts mainly driven by employment changes, similar in size to production changes EU decline in agricultural employment, significant in particular localities and sub-sectors reinforces underlying trends may require additional support programmes Mercosur bigger sectoral changes than EU bigger effect on overall unemployment and wage rates during transition potential adverse impacts on informal farmers and use of forced labour proposed EU assistance through inclusion of Sustainable Development Chapter in the trade agreement Slide 6

7 Environmental impacts within EU positive and negative, fairly small and localised within Mercosur bigger than in Europe, positive and negative proposed EU assistance through SD Chapter global - biodiversity 30% increase in agricultural production in Brazil productivity expected to continue rising greater economic incentives for continuing land conversion and deforestation past impacts of rising food price on deforestation rates global climate change deforestation contributes 18% of total GHG emissions beneficial effect of EU biofuel imports would be more than countered if increased production comes from land conversion overall impact potentially large and adverse Slide 7

8 Summary no significant gain in economic welfare for EU main benefit of an agreement would come from contribution (unquantifiable) to global competiveness objectives of Lisbon Strategy / Europe 2020 any agreement would be dependent on granting greater access for Mercosur agricultural products in considering the details of a proposed agreement account should be taken of: potential conflicts with agricultural and energy security policies potential for significantly adverse impacts on global biodiversity and climate change Slide 8

9 Thank you! EU-Mercosur SIA final report: EU-Mercosur sector studies and other SIA reports: Slide 9