Food Sensitive Planning and Urban Design October 2011 Kirsten Larsen

Transcription

1 Food Sensitive Planning and Urban Design October 2011 Kirsten Larsen

2 Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab Future-focused research and design centre at the University of Melbourne. Core activities are:»reframing the need for change, joining the dots about the fundamental systemic unsustainability of the present;»articulating positive, plausible, tangible futures healthy, sustainable and resilient options; and»catalysing change, through support for experimentation and demonstration of innovative interventions.

3 Food Security Food Security: the state in which all persons obtain nutritionally adequate, culturally acceptable, safe foods regularly through local non-emergency sources Stability Sources: Vichealth, Ingram (2008), FAO (2011), FAO (2009), CIV (2008)

4 There s a lot going on in the Food System

5 Pressures.. Value of Agricultural Production Projected Water Available for Irrigation in MDB Without farmers, it s all just scenery.. Sources: DSE (2005); CSIRO (2008)

6 Climate Change So it would be another 30 years until we started to really see, even at the only 380 parts per million level [of C02-e atmospheric concentration] that we re doing now, what those effects are.. Dr. Nathan Lewis, Professor of Chemistry, California Institute of Technology High climate change: extreme weather events Required emissions reductions Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions, for just another decade, practically eliminates the possibility of near-term return of atmospheric composition beneath the tipping level for catastrophic effects. James Hansen - NASA Sources: CSIRO (2008); ACF (2007)

7 Peak Oil Sources: IEA (2010)

8 Direct on-farm energy consumption (OECD)» Between and » All on-farm energy consumption» Ktoe 000t of oil equivalent Sources: OECD (2008); Sloan, Sipe and Dodson (2008)

9 As well as production.. Increasing demand for food = increasing demand for nutrients Nutrient Inputs to Australian Agriculture» Nitrogen fertilisers are derived from natural gas - a non-renewable source that is closely linked to the oil price.» Phosphate fertilizers are derived from phosphate rock, which is finite and expected to peak in the near future.

10 Oil and economic growth.. With the recent rise in oil prices coming at a time of a relatively weak global economy and uncertain global equity markets, it can be expected to constrain global economic growth in the short term irrespective of what happens from here on. Sources: Australian Treasury (2003)

11 German Military Update (September 2011) Peak oil, however, is unavoidable. This study shows the existence of a very serious risk that a global transformation of economic and social structures, triggered by a long-term shortage of important raw materials, will not take place without frictions regarding security policy. Armed Forces, Capabilities and Technologies in the 21 st Century Environmental Dimensions of Security Sub-study 1 PEAK OIL Security policy implications of scarce resources The disintegration of complex economic systems and their interdependent infrastructures has immediate and in some cases profound effects on many areas of life, particularly in industrialised countries. Bundeswehr Transformation Centre Future Analysis Branch Prötzeler Chaussee Strausberg November ztransfbwdezzukunftsanalyse@bundeswehr.org Sources: Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, German Military (2011)

12 Assumed increasing population (M)» Inherent in demographic and age structures» In global context: low pop. density and high resource consumption (38 million Australians 356 million Ethiopians )» Instability likely increase in refugees Sources: ABS (2008)

13 Significant change is inevitable..» Tensions in providing a surplus of the core foods, particularly fruit and vegetables, nuts, cereal grains (if biofuels are used) and milk (due to transfer of land to F&V)» Complex interactions no free lunch» Radical transformation required» Decisions we make now will affect future flexibility and options