GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS SELECTED POLICY ISSUES

Transcription

1 GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS SELECTED POLICY ISSUES Workshop Revisiting trade in a globalised world: Global Value Chains and their impact Chengdu 18 October 2011 Koen De Backer, OECD

2 Slicing up firms value chains through outsourcing and offshoring

3 gives rise to Global Value Chains International production networks; dispersion of production stages across countries Networks of activities, firms (MNEs and local firms), industries and countries Global flows of goods (final and inputs), services, capital, people, technology Hence, policy implications are very diverse Focus in this talk on: - Employment - Trade and competitiveness - Capturing value moving up the value chain

4 Perceptions about employment impacts of GVCs (in OECD countries) Offshoring of employment Exports are good, imports are bad GVCs at expense of unskilled in OECD countries...

5 China = Factory of the world?... Manufacturing employment in China (millions) Source: OECD estimates, based on National Bureau of Statistics.

6 less so in value added Top manufacturers in the last 20 years, market share (%) in 1990, 2000 and 2009 Source: OECD (2011)

7 GVCs and employment is a complex issue Losses are visible and concentrated, gains often more hidden and diffused Small impact on aggregate level of employment, larger on composition ( winners and losers ) Offshoring leads to lower costs, higher productivity and hence to extra jobs Offshoring and trade in tasks: no massive job losses (OECD, 2011) International specialisation = international division of labor Re-allocation of resources within countries: importance of labor market regulations

8 Growing imports of intermediate goods Intra- and inter-regional imports of intermediate goods (Billion USD, 2005) Source: Miroudot et al (2009)

9 increasingly important for exports (1) Import content of exports, 1995 Source: OECD (2011)

10 increasingly important for exports (2) Import content of exports, 2005 Source: OECD (2011)

11 The importance of regional integration Import content of exports, by geographic origin, 2005 Source: OECD (2011)

12 Implications for trade policy Trade barriers could become very detrimental for competitiveness Import tariffs = taxing exports Increase costs of intermediates Endangers export competitivenes Firm closures and job losses Importance of open trade Trade of intermediates for integration into GVCs

13 Capturing value through high technology? BRIICS manufacturing trade by technology intensity, Source: OECD (2011)

14 Competitive Not competitive China specialised in high technology Export specialisation Source: OECD (2011)

15 Competitiveness China - Moving up the value chain? (1) Export specialisation and intermediates imports, China manufacturing industries Imports of intermediates Source: OECD (2011)

16 Increase in product quality China - Moving up the value chain? (2) Growth UVindustry (total exports) (relative to World UVindustry, in pp.) Export quality and intermediates imports quality, China manufacturing industries Radio, TV, comm. Instruments Electronic compo Motor vehicles Petr.& coal Rubber, plastics Textiles, clothing 0.5 Other transport Metal prod. Chemicals Paper, printing Basic metals 0 Food Mineral products Wood -0.5 Aircraft & Other manuf. spacecraft Pharmaceuticals -2 Computers Other machinery Electrical machinery -2.5 UV industry of imported intermediates (relative to World UV industry ) Quality of imported intermediates Source: OECD (2011)

17 China - Moving up the value chain? (3) Exports by end use, Personal computers & passenger cars Household consumption Capital goods % 100 Other intermediate goods Mining and primary energy inputs Intermediate goods for assembly USA (949) JPN (560) EU15 (3 785) Other OECD (1 950) CHN (1 529) BRIIS (706) ROW (2 540) Value of total exports, billions of USD, current exchange rates Source: OECD (2011)

18 Policy issues Aggregate data hide the actual pattern Importance of imported intermediates Less direct competition with OECD countries Vertical specialisation instead of sophistication Capturing the value and moving up the value chain Innovation Intangible assets

19 Koen De Backer, OECD