EARLY WARNING SYSTEM REPORT

Transcription

1 EARLY WARNING SYSTEM REPORT Impact of the 2004 Belg Harvest and the GU Rain in the Pastoral Areas on Food Availability Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission Ethiopia August 2004

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Executive Summary... 4 Introduction Part One: The Performance of the Belg Season and Food Prospects in Crop Dependent Areas Tigray Region Amhara Region Oromiya Region Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region 20 Part Two: (SNNPR)... The Performance of the Main Rainy Season and Food Prospects in Pastoral Areas Afar Region Somali Region Lowland Bale Zones(Oromiya Region Borena (Oromiya Region) South Omo (SNNPR) 33 Annex 1: Affected Population and Food Requirement from August to December 2004 by Woreda

3 Glossary of Local Names Belg - Short rains/season from February/March to June/July (National) Azmera - Rains from early march to early june (Tigrai) Tsedia - Rains from mid june to end of September (Tgrai) Birkads - Traditional deep water wells Chat - Mildly narcotic shrub grown as cash crop Dega - Highlands (altitude >2500meters) Deyr - Short rains from October to November (Somali) Ellas - Traditional deep water wells Gu - Main rains from February/March to June/July (SNRS) Hagaya - Short rains from October to November (Borena/Bale) Karma - Main rains from July/August to September/October (Afar) Kiremt - Main rains from July/August to September/October (National) Kolla - Lowlands (altitude <1500meters) Meher - Main harvest Sugum - Short rains from March to April (Afar) Woina Dega - Midlands (altitude meters) 12

4 Executive Summary Crop Areas Tigray Region In Southern Tigray Region onset of the Belg rains was almost on time, but there was no rain during the essential month of February. The dry spell persisted well into March in Raya Azebo, Ofla, Enda Mehoni and Alamata woredas. Although good amounts of rain were received in Southern Tigray in April, the long dry spell significantly shortened the growing period. Belg rains performed poorly and in most areas of Southern Tigray have been considered as a near total failure. Overall 2004 Belg crop production in the zone can be rated as poor, with area planted 77% and 29% lower than that of 2003 and 2002, respectively. Belg production in 2004 in Tigray is 45% and 28% lower than that of 2003 and 2002, respectively. On-going food aid distributions for the chronically vulnerable population, a good Meher production last season, relatively stable market conditions and other positive food security variables, mean that most of the affected population are expected to cope up the food shortage by themselves. However, given the poor performance of this year's Belg season, the fragile food security situation in the region could deteriorate rapidly. As a result of this an additional 15,000 people are identified as needing immediate relief assistance in Tigray, starting August through December Including the previous meher beneficiaries the total number of needy population who required relief assistance in the region from August to December 2004 is estimated to be 1,122,000. Amhara Region In most of the Belg producing areas of North Wollo and South Wollo in Amhara Region, the onset of rains were one to two months late, and was characterized as irregular, erratic and unevenly distributed, with early withdrawal. While onset in the other Belg growing areas of Amhara Region, namely North Shewa and Oromiya was considered normal. Dry spells were experienced in the month of February and in the beginning of March. The overall performance of the rains in North and South Wollo was worse than that of last year. The total area planted in 2004 in all four Belg zones of Amhara was 20% lower than what was planted in Production prospects of the zones except North Shoa have declined significantly, and for the four zones constitutes a 27% reduction in production compared to the 2003 Belg season. Deficits as big as 70% and 45% have been observed in North Wollo and South Wollo zones, respectively. In North and South Wollo, given the comparative declines in Belg prospects and poor livestock condition, both zones will require external assistance. The previous beneficiaries are 1,902, 000. This figure is expected to decline if the belg rains perform well. However, due to the poor performance of the belg season rains, these beneficiaries will require an extended duration of assistance up to December Currently, due to belg failure 15, 600 additional beneficiaries are identified. Therefore, this will bring the total number of needy population who will require emergency relief assistance to 1,917,600 as of August to December

5 Oromiya Region In Oromiya Region, due to late onset, erratic distribution, inadequate amount and early cessation of rains, a significant reduction in production is expected from the Belg season crops in East and West Hararghe, Bale and some pocket areas of Arsi and North West Shewa zones. The performance of Belg rain was generally poor this year compared to the average in all Belg producing zones of Oromiya, namely Arsi, Bale, East Shoa, North-West Shoa, Borena, Guji, and East and West Hararghe. Except in North-West Shoa, onset of Belg season rains was late by two to three weeks in Arsi and Bale, and by three to four weeks in East Shoa, and East and West Hararghe zones. Distribution of rain was also erratic, with dry spells delaying the planting time of Belg crops. The dry spell extended for six to seven weeks in most parts of Bale, Arsi, Borena, Guji West and East Hararghe, and East Shoa. The total area covered with Belg crops is the same as last year in Borena and Guji zones. In Bale and Arsi zones, the planted area slightly exceeds that of last year. However, there is a reduction of Belg area coverage this year in North-West Shoa by 28%, and in West and East Hararghe by 21% and 15%, respectively. In general, with exception of Arsi zone where this year production is expected to be higher than last year by 22%, the prospect of Belg production is unsatisfactory in all other zones. The performance of cash crops such as chat, coffee and vegetables was also unsatisfactory due to unfavourable climatic conditions in East and West Hararghe, East Shoa, Arsi and North-West Shoa zones. The previous beneficiaries are 1,494,700. These beneficiaries still will require an extended duration of assistance up to December Currently, due to failure of the belg rains 70,704 additional beneficiary are identified. Therefore, this will bring the total number of needy population who will require emergency relief assistance to as of August to December SNNPR In Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR), erratic Belg rainfall has meant that the season's crop performance was very poor with the estimated yield losses ranging from % for major Belg crops such as maize, sorghum and haricot beans. Maize, the staple food crop of the region has been the most affected. Most important cash sources of the region such as coffee and pepper were also expected to perform very poor. Currently, in many areas, long cycle crops, that are usually expected to be available for green harvest starting the first week of August, are reported totally damaged. While the onset of Belg rains were normal in most areas, from the first week of May up to the first week of July a prolonged dry spell prevailed throughout the zones. Production loss in the Gamo Gofa zone is estimated to range between 50-90%. In Hadiya zone, it was reported that out of the areas planted in the Belg season, about 34% was severely damaged by the poor weather conditions. Crop production loss from the Belg harvest in Wolayita is estimated to range between 55-60%. Due to the very poor Belg production prospect, a serious food insecurity situation is expected in Gamo Gofa, Wolayita, Hadiya, Konso and Derashe special woredas and some parts of Kembata Tembaro. Moreover, signs of malnutrition have been reported in Meskan and Mareko woredas of 14

6 Guraghe and Awassa Zuria woreda of Sidama zones, and nutritional status elsewhere is anticipated to deteriorate very soon if food aid is not continued. Immediate food intervention is needed where there is a high decline of Belg crop production. The previous beneficiaries are 857,400. Due to the poor performance of the season, these beneficiaries still will require an extended duration of assistance up to December Currently, due to belg failure 522,900 (including South Omo) additional beneficiaries are identified. Therefore, this will bring the total number of needy population who will require emergency relief assistance to 1,380,300, as of August to December Pastoral Areas Somali Region The March/May Gu rains this year started early or on time in most areas of the region. However, distribution was uneven, sporadic and of low intensity except in some pocket areas where close to normal precipitation was received during April. The rains ended early around the end of April. Generally rains were poor to below normal. Livestock and human populations are already experiencing serious stress and a critical food security in areas of very poor rain, including Gashamo and Aware in Dagahbur zone; Shilabo in Korahe zone; Galadi and Bokh woreda in Warder zone; Dolo Ado in Liban zone; Dolo Bay, Cherati, and W. Imey in Afder zone; Ferfer, Danan and E. Imey in Gode zone; and most woredas in Fik zone Water sources (ponds, shallow wells and cemented birkas) in many areas do not contain sufficient water to sustain both livestock and the pastoralists until the deyr rainy season expected in October or November. Some areas are already experiencing water problems and emergency water interventions are underway. Pasture remains poor in areas where Gu rains significantly or totally failed and available pasture and browse in better areas is being depleted due to internal, external and cross-border migrations. However livestock condition is near normal in areas except in the worst hit woredas (particularly cattle in Gashamo, Ferfer and Dolo Ado). The livestock products particularly in the seven southern zones remain low. Harvest prospects for most of the rain fed crop production are poor in Jijiga and maize and sorghum are likely to fail. In Kalafo and Mustahil woredas of Gode zone, crops planted with flood recession irrigation are not doing well. Some good harvest of maize reported from the irrigated farms in West Gode woreda. Harvest prospects in the Faafan valley of Kabri Dahar and Doboweyn woredas of Korahe zone is 40-50% of normal. The recurrent rain failures and intermittent drought conditions in the region over the last five years have eroded the asset base and coping mechanisms of most rural households. The poor rains this year, aggravated by other factors, are expected to lead to continuing and significant food shortfalls among many households over the coming six months. There are increased needs for emergency relief assistance and water intervention. The previous beneficiaries are 1,025,500. This figure is expected to decline if the season rains perform well. However, due to the poor performance of the season rains, these beneficiaries will require an extended duration of assistance up to December Currently, an additional of beneficiaries are identified. Therefore, this will bring the total number of needy population who will require emergency relief assistance to 1,397,664, as of August to December

7 Borena Zone of Oromiya Region The arrival of the Belg/Ganna rains in Borena this year was more or less on time but cessation was earlier than usual by four weeks. The distribution was erratic and inadequate. Some pocket areas in Dire and Moyale woredas received only 1-2 days of rains during the entire season while Yabello woreda experienced somewhat better rains. Early depletion and severe shortage of pasture and water were reported in several parts of Dire woreda, Arero woreda and Teltele woredas and has caused unusual migration of herds which is not common at this time of the year. It was also reported that a large influx of livestock from Northern Kenya moved to Dire and Teltele woredas. As a result the food security situation of the zone in the upcoming months is expected to be precarious. The number of needy in the zone is 43, 100. Lowlands of Bale Zone ( Oromiya Region) Due to considerable yield reduction of belg crop and serious shortage of pasture and water for livestock, lowlands of Bale will require emergency relief assistance for 145,300 people, as of August to December Afar Region The Sugum rains (March-April) in Afar this year were described as better than last year both in terms of amount and distribution in most parts of the region, but still remained below average. The exception was parts of Zone 3 where the Sugum rains were reported to be much better compared to the last five years. Rains were relatively poor in Zone 2 and Zone 4 but better in Zone 3 and Zone 5. Pasture and browse condition and water availability were reported to be good in many areas, but there is a critical shortage of pasture and water in areas where the precipitation was very low. The impacts of the rains on pasture and water availability in many woredas of Zone 2 and Zone 4 was reported to be insignificant and pastoralists from these zones have migrated with their cattle and sheep earlier than normal. The Sugum rain has also enabled farmers in parts of Argoba and Dulecha woredas of Zone 3 to undertake timely planting of long cycle crops such as maize and sorghum. With regard to irrigated farms, better maize harvest compared to last year was obtained in Afambo woreda of Zone 1 while crops in Asaita woreda was said to have failed due to insufficient irrigation water. Generally the overall livestock condition in Afar is better as compared to the previous year. The milk supply has also improved from last year particularly in areas where better rains were received resulting in a significant improvement in the food security situation in many areas. However, because of the recurrent drought many pastoralists have lost their animals. In addition to this in Zone 2 and Zone 4, livestock products (milk and meat) are still insignificant. The previous beneficiaries needy population in Afar region is Currently, due to the improvement of the situation in some areas, the total number of beneficiaries in Afar have declined to 261, 300. Therefore, these beneficiaries will continue to receive emergency relief assistance up to December

8 South Omo The onset of the long rains was late by about 30 days in mid-highland areas and by days in lowland areas of Bako Gazer, Hamer, Selamago, Bena Tsemay and Kuraz woredas. The rain was also not adequate in terms of amount and distribution and cessation was earlier than normal. May and June were totally dry. The rainfall amount and distribution did not help for a full regeneration of pasture and water sources, and has affected crop growing areas. Small streams and ponds are already dry in most places of South Omo. In areas where maize and sorghum have failed at flowering stage, livestock are feeding on stems and leaves of damaged crops and thus the condition of livestock is still good. However, the existing situation has started pressuring people in some areas to move towards perennial water sources very early compared to the usual practice. The situation is considered worse in the lowlands of South Omo this year, and there will be serious problems for livestock if the existing dry situation persists. Due to poor weather performance maize production was totally damaged in many areas while sorghum mainly wilted throughout visited woredas. Lack of recession agriculture due to absence of flood has also resulted in lower production. A 50-88% production reduction from the planted crops was reported on average for major crops grown during belg season in South Omo. In most places, livestock are still in the residential villages that the vulnerable groups, like children and mothers are getting some amounts of milk. But in some places, people have already started moving with their livestock due to the prevailing stress in terms of pasture and water. The total number of needy population in South Oomo is 85,000. In All area of the country, the total number of needy population who require emergency relief assistance and the total food requirement as of August - December 2004 are shown in Table 1 and 2. See also map 1 and 2 Table 1:- Total Population Needing Humanitarian Food Assistance from August to December 2004 Region Meher Beneficiaries expected to continue from Aug-Dec 2004 (A) Belg/Gu beneficiaries expected to have graduated By July 2004 (B) Unable to graduate due to Belg, Gu, Sugum Rain failure (C) New additional beneficiaries due to Belg/Gu rain failure (D) Population requiring additional resources E=C+D Total beneficiaries F=A+E Tigray 1,107, ,000 15,000 1,122,000 Afar 0 402, , , ,300 Amhara 1,721,700 16,600 16, , ,900 1,917,600 Oromiya 1,309, , , , ,403 1,754,262 Somali 0 1,025,500 1,025, ,164 1,397,664 1,397,684 SNNP 679, , , , ,900 1,380,300 Gambella Harari 13, ,500 Total 4,831,549 1,805,790 1,664,699 1,350,468 3,015,167 7,846,626 17

9 Map 1 Table 2: - Total Food Requirement by region in Metric tones (MT) Region Meher beneficiary expected to continue from Aug to Dec 2004 Food Requirement in MT for previous Meher beneficiary Population requiring additional resources due to Belg/Gu rain failure Additional food requirement due to Belg Gu rains failure Total requirements in MT Tigray 1,107,000 62, , , Afar ,300 17, , Amhara 1,721,700 73, ,900 8, , Oromiya 1,309,859 70, ,403 23, , Somali 0 0 1,397, , , SNNP 679,400 59, ,900 61, , Gambella Harari 13, Total 4,831, , ,015, , , Map 1 18

10 Introduction Map 2 This report brings together findings of a recently concluded Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission-led multi-agency assessment of the impact of the Belg and Gu rain on food availability. The assessment was completed in Mid- July UN agencies, Donors and representatives from GOs and NGOs were involved. Belg is a short rainy season which contributes only about 5% - 10% of the annual crop production, while Gu is the main rainy season for the pastoral areas in the South and South Eastern parts of the country. The objective of the assessment was to provide information regarding the food security status of the population affected by drought, both agricultural, agro-pastoral and pastoral. The conclusions of the assessments were on the s basis of ystematic analysis, such as weather and its effects on crop and livestock production, market conditions, availability of secondary sources of income, indicators such as nutrition and health. This report provides the outcome of the assessment, which, among others, includes number of people needing food assistance, and where and for how long assistance would be needed. The report is presented in two parts. Part One discusses the food security situation in Belg producing areas of the country, while part two addresses the food security situation in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of the country. The discussion for each region cover weather conditions, 19

11 agricultural activities, human health, and the food security status and prospects in the second half of In estimating food needs, the requirement is calculated at the rate of 500gm/person/day. Supplementary food, on the other hand, is assumed to be required only for the most serious cases of food insecurity, and is calculated using a 150gm/person/day ration for the most seriously affected 110 woredas out of a total of 315 needing food assistance as of August The requirement for edible oil is calculated using a ration rate of 50gn/person/day. Part 1: The Performance of the Belg Season and Food Prospects in Crop Dependant Areas 1.1 Tigray (South Tigray Zone) Basic Facts Number of zones 5 Number of woredas 34 Belg as percent of annual crop production 10% Projected rural population for mid , 900,994 Estimated needy population..1,122,000 Needy population as percent of rural population 29% Food aid requirement (MT).62, Weather Conditions In Southern zone of Tigray region, belg rains normally start around mid-january and extends through May. Onset of the belg rains this year was almost on time in all of the belg producing woredas of the zone. However, there were insufficient rains in the months of February and March, which are the essential months for planting belg crops. The cessation of rains was also too early; rains withdrew around the end of April in Enda Mehoni and Raya Azebo, and the first 20

12 week of May in Alamata. In general, although good amounts of rain were received in April, the long dry spell between the beginning of February and early March significantly shortened the growing period. Moreover, rainfall has been erratic in most areas of the belg crop producing woredas. Therefore, belg rains this year have performed poorly and in most areas have been considered as a near total failure Agricultural Activities and Crop Production Prospect The main belg crops produced in the zone are maize, teff, wheat, barley, and pulses. Land preparation and planting of belg crops were timely. Due to the long dry spell, out of the total 7,137 ha planted about 3,400 ha has been re-ploughed and only 3,738 ha remained under belg crops. Total area planted this year is 77 percent and 29 percent lower than that of 2003 and 2002, respectively. In Raya Azebo, Ofla, Alaje and Hintalo Wajerat woredas of the Southern zone a significant production decline, in some complete failure, has been reported. In general, due to longer than normal dry spells and early cessations of rains, the 2004 belg production in the southern zone can be rated as poor. Currently, 30,334 Qt is estimated to be obtained, which is 45 percent and 28 percent lower than that of 2003 and 2002, respectively. This shows that 2004 belg production performance is very poor in all the major belg producing areas of southern zone Water, Pasture and Livestock Condition Livestock physical condition is poor due to the shortage of pasture and water. There is no abnormal herd movement within or outside the zone/region. Furthermore, there had been no major disease outbreak during the season Human Health Condition According to reports from Bureau of Health, there had been reports of meningitis during the months of March and April. The total number of people affected with the disease in the zone was 112, out of which 8 people have died. Currently the disease is under control. Other than this there were no major reported human diseases. Moreover, there were no signs of malnutrition in children under five Food Security Prospect For August-December 2004 The major source of income in the visited woredas is crop production, livestock, and a limited amount of petty trade, wage labour, and remittance. The failure in belg crop production will have a major impact on farmers' livelihoods, in particular for those woredas that mainly depend on belg crop production. The ongoing food aid and a stable market conditions might have contributed to a relatively better malnutrition status. Currently, 40 percent of the rural population of the southern zone is receiving food aid the majority being chronically food insecure. In addition, market prices are stable for the last several months and expected to be stable for the coming months. However, given the poor performance of this year's belg season combined with the chronic problem of the area, an additional 15,000 people are identified as needing immediate relief 21

13 assistance starting August and must continue through December Furthermore, about 10,000 people are expected to be closely monitored. The number of needy population who will require emergency relief assistance are shown in the table below. Table 3: Affected population and Food Aid Requirements from August to December 2004 in Tigray Region. 1.2 Amhara Region Basic Facts Number of zones 10 Number of woredas 106 Belg as percent of annual crop production.10% Projected rural population for mid ,887,674 Estimated needy population(as of August- December)..1,917,600 Needy population as percent of rural population.11% Food aid requirement (MT) Weather conditions The onset of rainfall, which was expected around mid January, was timely in Oromia and North Shoa zones. On the other hand, it was late by more than 6 weeks in many areas of South and North Wollo zones. Most woredas of these two zones did not receive precipitation until the third week and/or end of March, nearly two months late compared to normal. Some woredas received only two to three days of showers of rain. For instance, in Tenta woreda of south wello zone, only 34 mm was recorded within an elongated 32 belg season rainy days. In general, the amount and distributions of rainfall in the aforementioned zones of the region were inadequate and erratic. Dry spells were also widespread in most woredas of North Shoa and Oromia zones in the months of February and in the first few days of March. While the cessation 22

14 of rainfall, which was expected in May, was somewhat normal in the majority of woredas of North Shoa, it was premature in the other zones where the rainfall largely receded in the second decade of April. Thus, given the late onset, intermittent and inadequate distribution and early withdrawal of rainfall, the impact of the moisture stress for crops was significant, particularly in North and South Wollo zones Agricultural activities and crop production prospect Some farmers in all four belg dependent zones used the with timely rains in the months of November and December 2003 to prepare their lands. However, these untimely rains did not continue during the critical months of January March, except in most parts of North Shoa and some areas of the Oromia zones. This has affected the agricultural activities significantly as the planting should have been undertaken in January and beginning of February, particularly in South Wollo and North Wollo zones. Except for North Shoa where the planting performance was 5 percent higher than 2003, area planted in other zones have declined significantly compared to last year, from 21 percent in North Wollo to 29 percent in both Oromia and South Wollo zones. It has also been observed that this year s planting performances in most of these zones is lower than the average performances for the past few years. In general, the total area planted in 2004 in all four zones is 161,821 hectares with an estimated total production of 914,669 quintals. This constitutes a decline of 20 percent of area planted and 27 percent of production estimate from what had been recorded in the year Most of the reduction is attributed to the lack of adequate moisture at the time of planting. However, zonal variations are evident. According to the Bureau of Agriculture reports, about 11 percent increase compared to last year, has been registered in North Shoa, and 70 percent and 45 percent reduction have been reported in North Wollo and South Wollo zones, respectively. However, about 7 percent decline has also been recorded in the Oromia zone. Moisture stress was the major factor for the estimated decline in production in all zones. The severity of the moisture stress was very extreme in North and South Wollo zones where some farmers in Legambo and Mekdela, for instance, have been observed using their failed crops for animal feed. Other farmers, as in Oromia zone, were also compelled to replace their teff crops with maize. In the highlands replanting of some failed crops with long variety barley known as Ginbote has also been observed. Other factors affecting production include the reduction in planted areas and incidence of some pests, such as, ball worm on chickpea and some cases of hailstorms Water, pasture and Livestock conditions: In North and South Wollo zones, due to the poor performance of the belg rains, the physical condition of the livestock, particularly shoats, has been very poor. Farmers in Mekdela and Tenta woredas of South Wello zone claim the death of a minimum of four shoats per household during the season. Furthermore, given the grave pasture shortages in these areas, some farmers have been reporting that they are feeding their animals on failed belg crops. Unless the meher rains start soon, which is late in many areas, the livestock condition in the aforementioned woredas and zones will remain precarious. 23

15 On the other hand, as a result of the relatively better performance of the belg season rains this year and the untimely showers during the months of November and December 2003, the current physical performance of the livestock in the majority of the woredas of North Shoa and Oromia zones is rated as normal to above normal. Furthermore, other than the limited and endemic animal diseases, for which appropriate treatments are being given, no unusual outbreaks of animal diseases have been reported in the two zones Human health conditions: There were no major or unusual human diseases outbreaks reported in any of the zones. However, though the prevalence rate was minimal and under control, some cases of meningitis were reported from 16 kebeles of Minjar Shenkora woreda of North Shoa and two kebeles of Bati woreda in Oromia zone. Some incidences of malaria have also been reported in almost all woredas of North Shoa and Oromia zones. As part of assessing the general situations, nutrition surveys were conducted by CONCERN and SCF-UK in Dessie Zuria and Mekdela woredas of south Wollo in May and April, respectively. Results of 19.6% GAM and 0.6% SAM have been recorded in Dessie Zuria woreda, and the results in Mekdela woreda were 11.3% GAM and 1.1% SAM for the under 5 children. Signs of malnutrition have also been observed in Tenta Woreda. These GAM figures are considered serious by Ethiopian nutritional guidelines and needs close monitoring Food security prospects for August-December 2004: Given the good meher harvest earlier this year, the current improvement on livestock conditions, reasonable belg prospects, and some carry over stocks in at least a few woredas, it is believed that the food security situation of North Shoa and Oromiya zone will remain stable for the months to come. Thus no food related stresses are expected, and there is no need for additional relief interventions in light of the 2004 belg performance. However, in North and South Wollo zones, given the comparative gloomy pictures of belg season performance, and the poor livestock physical conditions, largely due to the poor performances of rains, some people, especially those belg dependent and with a hundred percent loss, both zones will require external assistance. Woredas such as Sayint and Mekdela of South Wollo and Wadla and Delanta of North Wollo will require much of the support. A total of additional 115,700 people in eight woredas of South Wollo zone and some 63,600 people from four woredas of North Wollo zone will require food assistance starting from November 2004 to June In the mean time, between August and October, it is believed that the current food dispatches could absorb these belg beneficiaries as part of the chronically identified beneficiaries that already exist in the woredas. Hence, it has been agreed that no additional resources would be required for these belg beneficiaries for the next few months if the current planned allocations flow as planned to the woredas. The situation of these people will further need to be assessed by the meher assessment team on how to continue with assistance until the next belg production period. Table 4: Affected population and Food Aid Requirements from August to December 2004 in Amhara Region. 24

16 1.3 Oromiya Region Basic Facts Number of zones 14 Number of woredas 197 Belg as percent of annual crop production 10-15% Projected rural population for mid ,605,674 Estimated needy population 1,754,262 Needy population as percent of rural population.8% Food aid requirement (MT) Weather Conditions The performance of Belg rain was generally poor this year compared to the average in all & Belg producing zones of Oromiya, namely Arsi, Bale, East Shoa, North-West Shoa, Guji, East and West Harerghe. Except in North-West Shoa, onset of Belg season rains was late by 10 days, in Guji; by 2-3 weeks in Arsi and Bale, and by 3-4 weels in East Shoa, East and West Harerghe zones. Beginning 2-3 weeks after the onset of rains distribution became erratic in most parts of the zones mentioned above. Incidence of dry spells that delayed actual planting time of Belg crops were observed during the season. The dry spell extended for 5-7 weeks in most parts of Bale, 25

17 Arsi, Borenea,/ Gujii, West and East Harerghe, East Shoa and Norht West Shewa.. In addition to the dry spell there were also occurrence of adverse weather condition like flood and hailstorm in Bale,Guji, Borena, East Hararghe and North West Shewa Agricultural Activities and Crop Production Prospect Major Belg crops grown in the previously mentioned zones are wheat, barley, oats, potato, teff, haricot beans and maize (short duration varieties). Their contribution to the total annual production of these zones is about 15 % on average. Normally, the planting time of these crops is between late February and end of March in most areas and the harvesting time is at the end of June. Following the late on-set of Belg rain, with exception of Borena and Gujii midlands, there was a delay in land preparation and planting operation of Belg crops by 3-5 weeks in most areas of East and West Harerghe zones, North-West Shoa, Bale and Arsi. The total area covered with Belg crops is the same as last year in Borena and Gujii zones. But in Bale and Arsi zones, it slightly exceeds that of last year by 1.1 and 5.5 %,respectively. However, there was a reduction of Belg area coverage this year in North- East Shoa by 28 %, and in West and East Harerghe by 21 % and 15 %, respectively. The reduction is attributed to delay in planting operation and hindrance of agricultural activities due to excessive rains. The performance of all germinated Belg crops was poor. The crops were stunted or dried due to severe moisture stress at flowering and seed setting stages. Failure of maize crops was particularly attributed to moisture stress and infestation of stalk borer in many Belg producing areas of the region.agricultural inputs utilization (fertilizers and improved seeds) has also been lower this year in the belg producing areas of the region.. In general, with exception of Arsi zone where this year production is expected to be higher than last year by 22%, the prospect of Belg production is unsatisfactory in all other zones. Besides the performance of cash crops such as chat, coffee and vegetables was unsatisfactory due to unfavorable climatic conditions in East and West Harerghe, East Shoa, Arsi and North West Shoa zones Water, Pasture, and Livestock Condition Availability of pasture and water has been below normal in East and West Hararghe, Arsi, East Shoa, and North West Shoa zones. However, the problem has been addressed by using crop residues, failed crops and browsing as feed, and replenishment of some water sources. On the other hand, the physical condition of livestock has been normal in all mid and highland areas of all zones. More over, no incidence of unusual livestock disease has also been reported. However, prevalence of endemic disease like FMD (Foot and Mouth Disease), Lump Skin disease and Black leg have been noted in some areas of the assessed zones Human Health Condition No unusual human diseases have been reported in East Harerghe, Bale, Arsi and East Shoa zones other than a few cases of endemic malaria which were contained with treatment measures. 26

18 Sporadic cases of meningitis has also been reported or observed in some areas of the region.. Signs of malnutrition were also observed in Borena. Cases of severe malnutrition were witnessed in many woredas of East and West Harerghe Food Security Prospects during August to December 2004 Crop production, followed by livestock and their products, is the major source of income in all mid- and highland parts of the assessed zones. Contribution of Belg crops and cash crops such as chat, coffee, vegetables, and wage labour is significant in these zones to meet the short term food need of many farmers. The share of livestock and livestock product is particularly significant for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists living in the lowlands Therefore, a decline in these income sources leads to a poor food security prospect for the people. The poor food security prospect is not only because of loss of crop harvest, but also due to shortage of other on farm and off farm income opportunities further exacerbated by depletion of asset bases due to recurrent incidences of drought. So far, some food stress response has been observed in East and West Harerghe. These includes sale of calves and heifers in mass, reduction of meals in number and size, unusual increase of migration for wage labour and increased incidence of begging for relief food at distribution sites. The total number of additional beneficaries indentified ude to belg failure is 454, 900. Therefore, this will bring together the total number of needy population who will require emergency relief assisstance to 1,754,262. see the table below. Table 5: Affected population and Food Aid Requirements from August to December 2004 in Oromiya Region. 27

19 1.4. Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) Basic Facts Number of zones 13 Number of woredas 102 Belg as percent of annual crop production 40% Projected rural population for mid ,591,506 Estimated needy population (Aug Dec 2004).1,380,000 Needy population as percent of rural population 11% Food aid requirement (MT) Weather Conditions Belg rains for the crop dependent areas, normally starts around mid-february and continue through May in SNNPR. The importance of the belg season is much more significant in SNNP than any other region. Almost all of the SNNPR produce their annual food crops including root crops during the belg season. Flowering and seed setting of the coffee crop, the cash of which covers over 60% of the national foreign exchange earnings, takes place with belg rains. Land preparations for the main growing season agriculture also takes place during the belg season. Wetland crops produced in the south and southwest depend on belg rains to attain full maturity stages with belg rains. This year, however, the belg rain had been erratic and below normal in many places. Despite a 28

20 positive outlook for the on-going meher season, the belg season performance was rated as very poor in the region. There was an early start to the belg season in Konso and Dirashe Special woredas, characterized by light to moderately heavy rains during January. In the highlands and midland areas of Wolayta, Kembata Tembaro and Hadiya Zones, the rainfall onset delayed by about 5 weeks. On the other hand, onset of belg rains was reported timely for Amaro Special Wereda and the low land parts of Kembeta Tembaro and Wolayta Zones. This was followed by an extended dry period until the first dekad of April when extended and significant rains covered most of the belg crop-producing areas in central, northern, and most of western parts of the region. The dry spell recurred for the whole months of May and June when the rainfall amount and distribution was badly needed, especially for those areas where the onset was late. Adverse weather conditions, such as, heavy rains accompanied by flooding were reported for Mirab Abaya, Arbaminch Zuria and Bonke Weredas of Gamo Gofa Zone and some pocket areas of Wolayta and Kembata Tembaro Zones. In addition, there were reports of frost in Wolayta Zone during the season Agricultural Activities and Crop Production Prospect The unseasonable rainfall in January was useful for land preparation and planting for the agricultural season. Nevertheless, these rains were not sufficient to regenerate moisture for the whole season. The dry spells during February and March over most of the belg-producing areas, followed by another dry spell in May and June significantly affected the agricultural activities of the region. In addition, the late onset coupled with dry spells has also affected other areas. Insufficient agricultural inputs combined with prevalence of pests, such as Quelea, Butterfly, Insects, Cut Army and Ball Worms, and Stock Borers have exacerbated the already adversely affected root and cereal crop production prospects of the region. Hence, there are urgent needs of emergency seeds in most affected weredas of the Region. Long-cycle maize crop, which is a staple crop for a large portion of the region, that is planted during belg and reach maturity during the meher season, has also faced serious moisture stress during the season. Record below-average rainfall for this season is expected to result a significant reduction in maize production compared with planned. Green maize should have normally been ready for consumption as of August to cover the food gap during the hungry season. However, in most affected areas maize is either totally failed or is at early stage. Yield losses for the season ranged from 65 percent in Wolayta to 86 percent in Konso Special Wereda. According to experts estimate in some assessed woredas of major Belg producing areas of Gamo Gofa, about 66 percent of area planted have suffered complete failure Water, Pasture and Livestock conditions The January rainfal combined with minor sporadic rains in many areas were sufficient to replenish water sources and regenerate pasture cover for the dominantly lowland pastoral and agro-pasotral areas. However, shortages of water and pasture were seriously reported in Gurage, Omo Sheleko, Kembata Tembaro, Gedeo, and Sidama zones and in Derashe Special woreda. So, despite deterioration of livestock conditions reported in some areas, particularly in Meskan, Mareko and Sodo weredas of the Gurage zone, overall livestock conditions at present look normal. Some on-going rains and the remnanets of current failed crops have increased the availability of animal feed, which basically kept the physical condtion and herd size of animals 29

21 normal. No serious disease outbreak has been reported in the Region Human Health Conditions There had been no serious reports of major disease outbreaks in all assessed areas during the season. Nevertheless, reports indicate that malaria outbreak that occurred in previous months still persists in some lowland areas of Soro woreda in Hadiya zone and in Amaro and Konso special woredas. Despite overall improvements in severe malnutrition cases compared to last year, malnutrition persists in some pocket areas, including Soro, Shashego and Badawacho woredas of Hadiya zone, Humbo and Damot Woyde woredas of Wolayta zone, Meskan and Marekoas of Gurage zone and many of the woredas in Sidama Zone. Although the on-going food aid distribution and some green harvests in pocket areas contributed to the mitigation of the malnutrition problem in some areas, the failed belg season in many areas might have exacerbated the existing poor malnutrition status in others and close monitoring of the situation is recommended Food Security Prospects during August to December 2004 Many parts of the Region have experienced diminished harvests since 1999, weakening the ability of households to cope with food insecurity. Years of acute drought in the region that stunt crops and leave little to harvest have left farming households impoverished, and unable to feed themselves. In the absence of irrigated agriculture, dependency on rain-fed agriculture makes them more susceptible to acute food shortages due to declining and erratic rainfall. Many farming households have not yet been able to recover from the 1999/00 and 2002/03 drought, when more than 1.4 million people required food aid. Considerable efforts by the Government, donors and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have helped to stabilize food insecurity since March As it has already been discussed, the performance of rains during the current belg season was particularly poor in the region. This has seriously affected the crop production, which is the major source of income and food. To make matters worse, the major cash crops, including coffee, chat, pepper and root crops performance continued to be poor. Limited off-farm income and employment opportunities leave people no choice but to exploit their overworked and fragile land resources. The coffee-processing industries, which used to provide gross added value of more than US$ 1.4 million per year, have also been seriously hit by declining international coffee prices. Seasonal laborers who traditionally depend on seasonal coffee-picking and coffee processing industry wages to supplement subsistence agriculture face hunger from plummeting world coffee prices and declining production. All the weredas that are currently suffering from shortage of food were victims of last year crisis and are not yet recovered. The fragile food security situation is currently becoming extremely alarming as significant portion of the population are desperately seeking external assistance as a result of complete failure/absence of food crops that should have sustain them from August through December. However, the problems in the region are much more than the failure of rains (and hence failure of crops for one season) and the response requires much more than food aid. Good outlook for the on-going meher season will not be sufficient to end the problem in SNNPR as the crisis is more chronic in nature. Poor access to infrastructure, water and health facilities, lack of productive assets and extreme poverty is widespread. 30

22 In general, the overall food insecurity crisis in the region, which is deteriorating in many areas remain precarious for the most vulnerable. According to the assessment team results, additional emergency food and seed requirements are required in all the assessed areas and urgent intervention is highly recommended before the situation get worsened and reach to the level of serious humanitarian crisis like that of last year. Affected populations and their food requirements by zone are indicated in the table below. Table 5: Affected population and Food Aid Requirements from August to December 2004 in SNNP Region. 31

23 Part 2: 2.1 Afar The Performance of The Main / short Rainy Season And Food Prospects in Pastoral / Agro-pastoral Areas Basic Facts Number of zones 5 Number of Special woredas.29 Belg as percent of annual crop production.. 40 Projected rural population for mid ,466,377 Estimated needy population (Aug Dec 2004)..261,300 Needy population as percent of rural population.18% Food aid requirement (MT) , Weather Conditions The short rainy season (locally known as the Sugum rains ) in Afar, normally begins early March and ceases at the end of April. This year the onset of the Sugum was late by one week in many parts of the Region except for Zone 1, where it was delayed by one month. The rains ceased at the normal time in Zone 1, 3 and 5. In Zone 2 and 4 it ceased three weeks earlier than normal. The late on-set and early cessation significantly affected Zone 2 and 4. In terms of distribution and amount of the rainfall, the Sugum performance was better than last year in many parts of zone 1, 3 and 5. In particular zone 3 received the best rains compared to the last five years.the performance in Koneba and Megale Woredas of Zone 2 and in Awra and Ewa Woreda of Zone 4 was moderate. But the rains were poor and erratic in Abála, Berhale, Erebti and Dalol woredas of Zone 2 and Teru, Yalo and Golina of Zone 4 and in parts of Elidar, Milie and Dubti woredas of Zone 1. In general, the Sugum rains of this year were better in Zone 3 and 5 and in parts of Zone 1 while the performance was relatively poor in Zone 2 and 4. In general the over all Sugum performance was reportedly better this year than that of previous years, although it was still below average for the region Water, Pasture And Livestock Condition Shortage of drinking water for human and livestock consumption is critical in some areas where Sugum performance was poor including Elidar and part of Dubti in Zone 1; Dalol, Berhale and Erebti in Zone 2; Teru and Yallo in Zone 4. These woredas require immediate water interventions. In most of the above mentioned areas people have to walk 2-6 hours in search of drinking water. Presently, in Dalol one liter of water costs one ETB, according to Woreda officials. Until June 2004, there was a water rationing program in the above woredas, and water provision was financed by UNICEF. Water availability in Zone 3 and 5 is better than in the other areas of Afar region, both in terms of amount, quality and accessibility for both human and livestock consumption. As a result of good precipitation obtained in the sugum period, the general browse and pasture conditions are better this year than last year. The pasture conditions in Zone 3, 5 and partially in Chifra, Afambo, Asaita and parts of Dubti in Zone 1 are better than last year. Conditions in Awra, Ewa, and in some parts of Golina in Zone 4 have improved somewhat over last year. Similar situations have been reported from Koneba, Megale and Afdera in Zone 2 (due to the flood obtained from the neighboring high land areas). Nevertheless, the current pasture condition 32

24 is still below average due to consecutive drought years by which most of the rangelands is still affected. Currently, the browse conditions are much better in general within the Afar region, except some parts of Zone 2 (Abala and Berhale). Therefore, the physical condition of camels and goats as well as production of meat and milk has improved as compared to last year. But the improvements in pasture for cattle and sheep in Zone 2 and 4 remain only marginal. Therefore, pastoralists from these areas have already migrated to areas where better rains have been received. The migration pattern is in general normal, but the movement started unusually early. No outbreak of epidemics among livestock has been reported in Afar in the last six months. However, woreda veterinary officials showed concern about the lack of means to monitor the health conditions of livestock, including lack of veterinary personnel Agricultural Activities and Crop Production Prospect Although Afar Region is predominantly a pastoral area, there are some areas where crop production is practiced. These are in Zone 1 Afambo and Dubti; in Zone 2 Abala, Dalo and Koneba and in Zone 3 Argoba and Dulecha. The major crops planted are maize, sorghum and barley. Following the relatively poor Sugum performance in Zone 2, the total area planted in Abala, Koneba & Dalol was about 1,503 hectares this year. This is only 38% of last year's planting. The arable land is mainly covered by maize and barley. But sorghum, usually the main crop, failed totally due to moisture stress. In Zone 3 (Argoba and Dulecha) the situation is somewhat better, although there is a fear of pest infestation. The situation in Zone 1 (Afambo,Dubti and Asayita) is different because the crop production is based on irrigation using the water from the Awash River. In Afambo, sorghum was harvested while in Dubti the crop failed due to the overflow of Awash River. In 2004, overall the crop production is expected to decrease by 37% compared from last year in Abala, Koneba and Dalol weredas of Zone 2. Anticipated declines are 33%, 30% and 59% in Abala, Koneba and Dalol, respectively. The main reason is moisture stress that occurred at planting time, which left much of the prepared land uncovered. In Zone 3, in Argoba, the total area planted was 878 hectares and was covered by long cycle meher crops (sorghum and maize) Human Health Condition No epidemics were reported for the entire region. However, cases of meningitis have been reported in Berhale woreda of Zone 2. The team notified this report to the regional authorities. Action was underway by the Region to assess the case thoroughly. In addition, there are reports of wide spread occurrences of disease like malaria, whooping cough, water borne and respiratory diseases Food Security Prospects during August to December 2004 Afar region has been severely affected by recurrent drought. Particularly, pastoralists have lost important assets and have not recovered yet. In areas where poor Sugum performance was reported, the food security situation remains critical, notably in Zones 2 and 4. However, the food security situation is presently stable in most parts of the region as result of ongoing food 33

25 distributions. It was reported that for the last six months relief food was distributed only twice in Zone 2, 3, 4 and 5. Exceptions were woredas of Zone 1 where the distributions, implemented by NGOs like World Vision International Ethiopia (WVI) and Lutheran World Federation (LWF), took place four times. Despite the fact that the rainfall situation showed improvement compared to last year, the pasture and water availability remains critical particularly in Zones 2 and 4. This situation in turn has affected livestock, which have not fully recovered in terms of production and herd size in many areas. Those pastorals who lost their asset mainly livestock during the previous drought still requires emergency relief assistance. The overall food security situation in the near future highly depends on the performance of the coming main rainy season (Karma Season- mid July up to end of September). The better the rain performance the more likely the food security situation will improve. If rain fails, the situation will become critical in many parts of the Region. Therefore close follow up of the situation is highly required. As already mentioned above Elidar and Dubti in Zone 1; Dalol, Erebti and Berhale in Zone 2 and Yallo and Teru in Zone 4 will require immediate water interventions. Therefore, an extension of relief assistance is required for people for the coming five months starting from August Table 6: Affected population and Food Aid Requirements from August to December 2004 in Afar Region. 34

26 2.2. Somali Basic Facts Number of zones 9 Number of woredas 51 Projected rural population for mid ,113,580 Estimated needy population (July Dec 2004).. 1, Needy population as percent of rural population 34% Food aid requirement (MT).. 129, MT Weather conditions The different zones of Somali Region would normally experience two rainy seasons in a particular year- the Gu and Karan in Shinile and Jijiga zones and the Gu and Deyr in the other seven zones. In Shinile and Jijiga zones the Gu season falls between late March and late May, while in the other seven southern zones, between mid-april and late June. The Karan season falls between late July and late September while the Deyr season occurs between early October and late November. In southern zones like Gode, Korahe and Liban, the amount of rainfall received in the two seasons have been almost equal in recent years, though historically more rains used to fall during Gu and therefore better crop production and pasture growth were realized in this season. The onset of 2004 gu rains was 1-2 weeks early ( first week of April) in Gode, Korahe, Warder, Liban and Afder and approximately on time in the other four zones. The rains ceased in late April/early May, were poor in distribution and insufficient in quantity for adequate pasture growth and crop production. However, agropastoral areas of Jijga zones had close to normal rains and are better than last year in terms of pasture, but due to the absence of rains in May, long cycle crop prospects are poor. A number of woredas had very poor gu rains and are therefore classified by the teams as hotspot areas that require particular attention during coming five months from August. These woredas are scattered in all 9 zones of the Region and are listed as follows. Liban zone: Dolo Ado woreda; Afder zone: Dolo Bay, West Imi and Charati woredas; Gode zone: Danan, East Imi and Ferfer woredas; Korahe zone: Shilabo woreda; Jijiga zone: Harshin woreda; Shinile zone: Dambal woreda; Dagahbur zone: Gashamo and Aware woredas; Warder zone: Galadin and Bokh woredas and Duhun, Hamaro and Fik woredas in Fik zone Water, Pasture and livestock conditions Due to inadequate Gu rains, many areas are expected to face water shortages during the just started dry season of hagaa (July-September)-some as early as August. Drinking water sources in Somali region include rivers, boreholes, birkas (or berkads); traditional hand dug wells and ponds. Because of the failure or inadequacy of the rains, many birkas remain empty and boreholes and shallow wells were not well replenished leading to their early drying up. Many boreholes are also not functional due to lack of maintenance. Some of the areas that are expected to face water shortages have chronic water problems: example include: Danan, and Gudis in East Imi, Todob in Adale, and woredas in Fik zone. The birka-dependent areas of Shilabo, Gashamo, Aware, Harshin, Galadi and Bokh are facing similar shortages. All these areas will require water tankering for next 3 months (August-October). Drinking water needs of the affected people in Danan, Gudis, Shilabo, Gashamo and other places should be met from August till end of dry season in October. Rehabilitation of existing water supply systems including boreholes and drilling of new ones in worst affected woredas should be done. This should be done in 35

27 collaboration with Somali Region Water Bureau and other stakeholders Pasture growth and regeneration was poor in most zones of region and is therefore scarce. The distance between pasture and water is unusually longer. This poor condition of pasture and browse follows consecutive unsatisfactory performance of the rains over last two years in most zones. The situation is exacerbated by influx of livestock from neighboring regions of Somalia such as Hiran, Galgadud and Puntland and northern Kenya. Inter-woreda and zonal migrations have also been reported. The net result is early depletion of pasture and water and consequent weakening of animal body condition and production. Overall current livestock condition is close to normal with few exceptions such as those in Ferfer, Dolo Ado, Dolo Bay and Gashamo woredas where animals are reported to be very weak (with some mortality reported) due to poor performance of the Gu season. The pasture and water scarcity is of serious concern to pastoralists and there is fear that unusual deaths of their livestock might occur during the long dry season of hagaa. There is a need to provide emergency veterinary drugs, train more community animal health workers and support construction of veterinary health posts. Both production and reproduction of livestock is low leading to insufficient milk supply. However, over last one year or so in a number of markets within the Region, there has been a general rising trend in the prices of sheep, goats and mature bulls due to demand from Somalia Agricultural activities and Crop production prospects Crop producing areas in Somali region include the agropastoral areas of Jijiga zone, riverine/flood recession woredas of Wabi Shabele, Ganale, Web and Dawa rivers and Fafan valley in Korahe zone. Of these, the most important areas are Jijiga and Gode zones. During Gu 2004, normal areas were planted in Jijiga, Awbare, Gursum and Babile woredas of Jijiga zone. But condition of the long cycle crops of maize and sorghum is not good due to the discontinuation of the rains in May and harvest prospect are poor. The main food production season in Jijiga zone is Gu/kremt season (March-September). The long cycle crop farmers in Jijiga zone are largely banking on the Karan rains and have started land preparation for the planting of short-cycle crops like wheat and barley, as the maize and sorghum will most likely fail In Kalafo and Mustahil woredas of Gode zone, the maize, sorghum and sesame planted using the flood recession irrigation are not doing well due to late planting, weeds, unusually strong hagaa winds and pests infestation. The West Gode Irrigation Project, however, had a good maize crop that was bought by Somali Region DPPB. Crops in the planted areas of Fafan valley of Kabri Dahar and Dobaweyn woredas are reportedly doing well apart from armyworm infestation and the relatively smaller area planted due to insufficient flood irrigation (about 50% of the normal). Harvest prospects in these woredas is reported to be somewhat 40-50%of normal Crops are at different stages of growth from waist high to tassling and silking and will begin to be ready for harvesting from August. Overall, crop production prospect is expected to be below normal. In any case, Somali region is a predominantly pastoralist Region and contribution from the agricultural sector to overall food security is therefore low Human health Conditions No unusual disease outbreaks were reported in Somali region during the period under review. However, rising malaria cases, upper respiratory infections and diarrhea was reported in most zones. This is in part due to recent Gu rains, poor hygiene and sanitation conditions, contaminated water supplies and inadequate public health care system. Malnutrition cases were also reported in Fik zone, Gode, Ferfer, Dolo Ado, Dolo Bay and Kabri Dahar woredas (mainly from reports in clinics). But the admission figures reported in clinics were not far from normal. 36

28 The only nutritional surveys conducted in Somali region over last 6 months, and whose reports were available, were in Fik zone by SCF/UK (GAM of 12.5% and SAM of 0.8%) and Gode woreda by SCF/US (GAM of 21.4%), and Shinile woreda by SC-UK (GAM of 7-8). These figures point to a serious nutritional status among the local population but further surveys are required and recommended by the teams in worst affected woredas to get an update of the situation. The Situation in Fik and Shinile shows considerable improvement. Provision of emergency drugs and strengthening of the health care system through training of staff is required Food Security Prospects during August to December 2004 Sale of livestock and livestock products like milk constitute the major sources of income for the majority of the population in Somali Region. Other major sources of income include crop sales (for agro-pastoralists), unskilled labour, petty trade and bush products sales. The recurrent rain failures and intermittent drought conditions in the Region over last five years have eroded the asset base and coping mechanism of most rural households. Family livestock sizes have also not recovered significantly from the losses caused by the severe 2000 drought. Most families had to sell some of their animals to get through lean seasons. This means that many pastoralists cannot take advantage of any recent improvements in the price of some livestock as they have few left to sell. The above mentioned situation, coupled with low crop production prospects, rising staple grain prices, low milk yield from animals and exhaustion of other coping mechanisms, is expected to lead to a continuing and significant food shortfalls among many households during the coming six months. These households will require food assistance to cover the shortfalls. They will also need assistance in health care, water supply and sanitation and veterinary drugs. Thus a total of 1,397,664 people are recommended for food aid assistance. Table 7: Affected population and Food Aid Requirements from August to December 2004 in Somali Region. 37

29 2.3. Low lands of Bale Zone (Oromiya) Weather Conditions Normally, Belg rain in lowland Bale zone starts in the first week of March and withdraws at the end of May, where as in midland and highland areas it begins and ends two weeks later than the lowland. Belg rain in Bale lasts for a maximum of three months and contributes about 60% and 35% to the annual precipitation in lowland and high-midland Woredas of the Zone, respectively. As per the information from Zonal and Woreda officials, the Belg rain was late by 3 weeks in the lowlands and by 2 weeks in midland areas. It also withdrew one month earlier than the normal time in lowland and most midland areas. It was erratic and scanty throughout the season and then was followed by a long dry spell at the end of the season. The dry weather in the zone had affected maize, sorghum and wheat crops and caused serious damage in nearly all agro-ecology. In addition, flooding caused by localized heavy rain in Mada Walabu Woreda, damaged 345 ha of maize crop in May. However, highland areas like Gololcha, Ginir, Gura Damole and Goro Woredas enjoyed relatively better and timely rain though crops was performing below the normal. The overall performance of 2004 Belg rain could be rated as poor in terms of timeliness, amount and distribution, especially in lowland woredas. However, it was relatively better in higher altitude areas Water, Pasture and Livestock Condition Although, the availability of pasture is below normal due to poor rain, there is no serious shortage of pasture and hence the performance of livestock is almost normal. However, there is a problem regarding availability of water especially in lowland Woredas like Raytu, where ponds are the major source of water for livestock. According to Raytu Woreda DPP committee, people in Borore and Gurura PAs have started migrating to Goro and Sewena Woreda in search of water. The already existing pasture problem is further aggravated by the arrival of 4,050 Shekista people from the neighbouring Somali region to the woreda with their livestock. Concerning livestock disease, there was a problem of goat diarrhea in Sewena Woreda (Kobe and Sheko PAs) that killed 140 goats in March Similarly in Raytu Woreda CCPP disease has killed 101 goats in Dedecha PA. In addition unknown camel disease was observed in Hargucha PA of same woreda. Woreda officials reported that the problem of CCPP (goat disease) is not yet controlled Agricultural Activities and Crop Production Prospect Major Belg crops grown in the Zone are wheat, barley, maize, sorghum, and teff. The contribution of Belg for annual production goes up to 60% in maize growing lowland Woredas, while its contribution in wheat and barley growing midland woredas is about 40%. Following the delayed Belg rain, cultivation and planting of crops was delayed by 2 3 weeks except in highland areas. However, the area planted is 160, ha exceeds the same season of last year by about 5.5 %, due to relatively favorable weather conditions in the past years and an increasing tendency for cropping by lowland (Agro- pastoral) Woredas. 38

30 The current performance of Belg crops (at flowering seed setting stages) like maize, wheat and barley is generally very poor in lowland and midland areas and also poor in some highland areas due to a long dry spell and early withdrawal of rains since last week of April. The situation is serious in maize growing lowland areas like Berbere, Raytu, Beltu and Sewena Woredas and maize crops were wilted and feed to livestock. However, the performance of wheat and barley in highland areas is, rated as better. In addition to the aforementioned dry spell, in Mede Walabu Woreda, flood caused by unusual heavy rain in May damaged 345 ha of maize. On the other hand, incidence of Armyworm in eight lowland and midland Woredas of the zone has damaged/infested 5359 ha of maize and wheat crop. Meanwhile, ha of crop area was treated, though there was no data on the amount of yield loss. Utilization of agricultural inputs is generally low compared to other years, and the supply was delayed by 6 weeks. The total amount of fertilizer, improved seed, and herbicide (chemicals) used this season was 6295 Qt., Qt. and 2250 liters, respectively. Following the unfavourable weather condition and low input usage, the prospect of current season crop production is generally poor especially in lowland Woredas. The total estimated Belg harvest expected in the 17 Belg producing Woredas is 1,423,237 Qt. compared to the same season of last year. The current harvest is less by 341,110 Ql (22 %). The degree of the yield loss varies from Woreda to Woreda and by agro ecology. In lowland Woredas like Raytu, Berbere, Sewena and Beltu the problem is more serious i.e., the maize crop is almost totally damaged except in a few midland Kebeles of Sewena where some green harvest was obtained. In addition, in midland Woredas like Sinana, Dinsho, Agarfa and Gasera wheat and barley crops were seriously affected by the dry spell and were stunted, with an estimated yield loss of up to 59% Human Health Conditions There is no deviation from what is normal regarding human health and there is no report of malnutrition Food Security Prospects during August to December 2004 In general it is concluded that Belg producing areas of Bale zone will face a food shortage, especially in lowland and midland areas. There is considerable yield reduction of Belg crop and serious shortage of pasture and water for livestock due to poor rain performance, mainly due to late onset and early withdrawal of the rains. At the same time, the existing pasture and water problem is exacerbated due to the arrival of Shekista people from the neighboring Somali region. Moreover, poor harvest in the last Meher season and the aftermath of recurrent drought, which depleted of livestock assets and aggravated the problem. In conclusion, the food security situation has started deteriorating in the said areas of the zone. Therefore about 145,300 people in the Zone are likely to require relief food assistance as of August/2004 for 5 months. This beneficiary number is also included in the summary of Oromiya total regional needy population. 39

31 2.4. Borena Zone (Oromiya Region) Weather Conditions Normally, the Belg (Gana) rains commence in the third week of March and extend up to third week of May. The 2004 belg rains, however, started the last week of March and ceased first week of May. This means that the rain was late by one week and ceased at least by two weeks. In most parts of the zone, distribution was erratic and the quantity was very small. Some pocket areas especially in Dire Woreda received only 1-2 days of rains during the entire season. Relatively, Yabello received better rains although in some cases it was torrential and hence damaged some crop fields. On the other hand, Sorro (misty type of rains for 3-5 days) normally expected at the beginning June did not occur Water, Pasture and Livestock Condition Serious shortage of pasture and water were reported in Dillo, Gorai and Arballe Peasant Association in Dire wereda; Borbor, Weyib and Geleba, Kefera and Wachille in Arero wereda; and Mekanisa and Wata Wondo in Teltele wereda. Most of these PAs were traditionally potential areas of pasture and water. Absence of Sorro also contributed to a shortage of pasture. In addition, it was reported that where there is pasture, water seems to be lacking and vice versa. The situation may become worrisome especially if hageya does not come early or at least on time. It was also noted that despite quite a reasonable number of ponds, many are damaged or collapsed, and no maintenance was done. Therefore, sufficient water was not contained as a result of which pastoralists have untimely (quite earlier than normal times) shifted to the traditional Ella. Herd movement within the zone occurred from Teltele to Moyale; from Dire, Moyale to Arero and Teltele; again from Dire to Arero, Teltele, Yabello and up to Bule Hora (Hagere Mariam). Large concentrations of herds were reported in Yabello (Dida-Hara). Normally, mobility at this time is within woredas. However, after the assessment team returned, it was reported that a large influx of livestock from Northern Kenya moved to Gorai in Dire and Hobok in Teltele Woreda. Anxiety over the possibility of disease outbreak in the face of large concentrations of livestock was also noted. So far, the prevalence of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was noted in all kebeles of Arero Woreda and has become a major concern since no prevention or control measures are in place. FMD was also observed in Dire, where 71 cattle died from CBPP though they have currently subsided through veterinary support. Other livestock diseases such as lumpy skin disease and black leg were widely reported on cattle in Teltele and Arero woredas. An unknown disease of goats causing high mortality in Teltele has not been controlled Agricultural Activities and Crop Production Prospect The area planted is almost similar to that of last year with a slight increase in area coverage. Planting was also done timely, except in some pocket areas where it was delayed by one week due to the late onset of the rains. The major crops planted were maize, haricot bean, wheat, teff, barley and sorghum. The prospects for crop production have turned out to be very poor with 100% loss of the the major crop (maize) in Dire and 90-95% loss in Moyale and other lowland woredas. Up to 70% of other food crops, including haricot beans were lost in Dire. Similarly, at Gelana over 85% of the maize crop was lost. Lack of adequate rains and absence of Sorro are the major causes for crop 40

32 failure while Quela quela birds (Grissa) in Teltele and torrential rains in Yabello contributed to significant yield loss/reduction. Similar situations prevail in the dry midlands although better crop performance was noted in the mid highland and some highland kebeles of Bule Hora and Abaya Woredas. Except in Dire and Moyale, crops were at flowering and milky or tasseling stages when the rains ceased Human Health Conditions Recently, some signs of malnutrition have begun to be observed in Wata Wondo and Kello in Teltele and Dukelle in Dire as well as among returnees in Moyale. At Dukelle, bacillary dysentery/bloody diarrhoeal diseases in children and adults were reported as related to malnutrition as well as lack of potable water Food Security Prospects during August to December 2004 The food security situation of the zone is not promising. Unless food aid is given on time asset depletion will likely occur. Signs of malnutrition were already observed in Wata Wondo and Kello in Teltele, Arballe and Dukelle in Dire and among IDPs in Moyale. The impact of insufficient rains adversely affected the availability of pasture and water and hence has reduced livestock productivity. Failure of major crops in agro-pastoral areas, lack of additional income sources, especially for IDPs in Moyale and destitute pastorals affected by failure of gana harvest compounded with chronic poverty level are the main causes for food insecurity in the zone. Therefore about people are likely to require relief assistance as of August/2004 for 5 months (up to December /2004). This beneficiary number is included in the summary of Oromiya total regional needy population. 41

33 2.5. South Omo (SNNP Region ) Weather Conditions In all the lowland and mid-land areas of the zone they expect rains twice in a year normally, short (Sept to Nov) and long ones (March to June). The onset of the long rains was late by about 30 days in mid-highland areas of Bakogazer and by days late in low land areas of Bako Gazer, Hamer, Selamago, Bena Tsemay and Kuraz woredas. It was reported that belg rain has been late and erratic and its amount and distribution has not been satisfactory for crop production. May and June were totally dry, at the stages where most crops are nearly at flowering and weeding stages. The rainfall amount and distribution also did not help for a full regeneration of pasture and water sources Water, Pasture and Livestock Condition In South Omo Zone, there are perennial (continuous through out the year, like Omo river), and intermittent (like Keske river, which is not continuous) sources of water. There are also some hand dug wells, ellas, standard ponds, and cherosh in good times. Belg season irregular and insufficient rainfall has already made availability water scarce. Small streams and ponds are already dry in most places of South Omo. Pasture also has a problem. In fact in areas where maize and sorghum have failed at flowering stage, livestock are feeding on stems and leaves of damaged crops. This might have contributed to the good physical condition of livestock during this assessment. However, the existing sitiuation have started pressuring people in some areas to move towards perennial water sources very early compared to the usual practice. In general, discussion with zonal and wereda officials as well as the community has indicated that the situation is worse in lowlands of South Omo this year that there will be serious problem on livestock if the existing dry situation persists. No disease was reported to have prevailed at the level of epidemic during this assessment. Officials have also reported that there is no big change on the herd size of the zone except that they have fear in the near future if situation is not reversed Agricultural Activities and Crop Production Prospects In the agro-pastoral and crop dependent, more or less similar size of land was prepared for planting as that of the previous years. But, planting was delayed in most cultivated plots and some cultivated plots were not totally planted as a result of delayed onset of belg rain. Some farmers were forced to plant 2 3 times following the erratic nature of rain. About 3000 cattle reportedely died due to shortage of pasture and water in Bena Tsemay Wereda in between mid March and last week of April, which has also hampered preparation of land for planting in the area since some of these died cattle were oxen Crop Performance Hamer Bena, Bako Gazer, and mid-land part of Selamago woredas have been dominantly belg crop producers. Widely grown belg crops in South Omo are maize and sorghum. Late onset, longer than normal dry spells, erratic distribution, and insufficient amounts of rainfall have caused maize production to totally got damaged in many areas and sorghum was mainly wilted throughout the woredas that the team has visited. Lack of recession agriculture due to absence of overflow of river has also resulted lower production. Even in some villages, dwellers have already started feeding their livestock on the damaged crops. Crops that are closer to maturity in 42

34 some pocket areas were highly affected by prevalence of pests too. In general, total damage was widespread in lowland parts and partial damage was observed in mid-land areas. It is assessed that percent yield reduction from the planted crops was reported on average for major crops grown during belg season in South Omo Human Health Conditions Severe malnutrition cases were not reported and observed in the woredas visited by the team. But in some places, people have already started moving with their livestock due to the prevailing stress in terms of pasture and water. Except prevalence of malaria at the level of epidemic in some villages, no other diseases were reported serious Food Security Prospect for August-December 2004 Belg rain has failed in South Omo this year. Prevalence of this dry weather shock has significantly affected both belg crops and livestock thus affecting both crop dependent and Agropastorals. Most belg crops have shown a yield loss of up to 100 percent in many places. Though livestock are physically good at the moment there is a fear in the near future. Current prices of food crops are considerably higher than the normal average for the season while the opposite was observed in the case of livestock. Most of the woredas in South Omo do not produce during meher season. Thus, the food grains they need are mainly obtained from belg season crops such as maize and sorghum. Some of the coping mechanisms like moving with cattle can still work in the zone, although it started unusually early but children, women and old age group will remain around the villages where they can face serious food shortage. The number of needy population that required relief assistance is included in the regional total beneficiary. 43

35 Annex 1: Affected Population and Food Requirement from August December

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