Perspectives of non-gm soybean based value chains in Hungary s livestock industries

Transcription

1 Perspectives of non-gm soybean based value chains in Hungary s livestock industries Dr. Ildiko TIKASZ Budapest, November, 2016.

2 CONTENT SOYA FARMS PRODUCTION PROCESSING TRANSPORT/ TRADE/ DISTRIBUTION ELEVATORS / STORAGE CRUSHING FACILITIES SOYA MEAL SOYA OIL EXPORT/ TRADERS EXPORT/ TRADERS MANUFACTURING SOYA MEAL PROCESSORS REFINERS & PROCESSORS FEED PRODUCERS/ LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY CHEMICAL & FOOD INDUSTRIES CHIMICAL, FOOD & PERSONAL CARE INDUSTRIES BIOFUELS INDUSTRY RETAIL/CONSUMPTION Dairy and meat Proteins, flour, cereals, cosmetics, plastics, paint, etc. Fats, margarines, cooking oil, shortenings, lecithin, detergents, ect. Biodiesel Source: Rautner et al., 2013 Global soy supply chain

3 * 1000 hectares/tonnes tonnes/hectare Hungary s soybean production EU: 836 kha 2.76 t/ha 2305 kt (2016) IT: 297 kha t/ha FR: 141 kha 2.66 t/ha RO: 121 kha 2.13 t/ha 2, ,5 3, , ,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Area Production Yield Source: Tallage, KSH, *NAK

4 The performance of the Hungarian soybean production Share of soybean area, soybean production and the number of farms cultivating soya Low yield Medium yield High yield Year 2 t/ha 2-3 t/ha >3 t/ha Farms Area Prod. Farms Area Prod. Farms Area Prod % 26% 13% 38% 44% 44% 25% 31% 43% % 47% 31% 33% 36% 45% 10% 17% 24% 2014 good year : 2,69 t/ha (HU average yield) 2015 bad year : 2,03 (HU average yield) Source: AKI, MKR

5 EUR/hectare EUR/hectare Net income of soybean production compared with benchmark crops Average of Wheat Maize Sunflower seed Revenue SAPS Production costs Rapeseed Net income (without SAPS+VCS): Sunseed: 207 EUR/ha (79 EUR/t) Rapeseed: 156 EUR/ha (57 EUR/t) Wheat: 144 EUR/ha (26 EUR/t) Corn: 50 EUR/ha (8 EUR/t) Soybean: -147 EUR/ha (-68 EUR/t) Low: -290 EUR/ha; High: 272 EUR/ha Soybean Source: AKI, FADN Net income (without SAPS): 1. Corn: 233 EUR/ha (35 EUR/t) 2. Rapeseed: 223 EUR/ha (87 EUR/t) 3. Sunseed: 158 EUR/ha (65 EUR/t) 4. Wheat: 106 EUR/ha (25 EUR/t) 5. Soybean: 73 EUR/ha (32 EUR/t) Low: -135 EUR/ha; High: 330 EUR/ha 2015 Wheat Maize Sunflower seed Rapeseed Soybean Revenue SAPS Voluntary coupled support Production costs

6 Hungary s demand for soybean meal, extruded and full-fat soy* ( ) Denomination /2011 Soybean - production (without seed) Imports (with seed) 87,738 62,446 71, , , % 31,741 29,785 49,798 80,136 68, % Exports (with seed) 48,444 58,000 38,016 37,412 55, % Soybean - crushing 71,035 34,231 83, , , % Quantity of extruded soy + full-fat soy + soybean meal tonnes 71,035 34,231 78, , , % Soybean meal imports Soybean meal exports Total demand of extruded soya + full-fat soya + soybean meal 672, , , , , % 13,324 13,837 39,290 63,793 90, % 730, , , , , % *balance based on trade statistics of KSH! Source: KSH, MKR, own calculation

7 ,58 3,70 3,61 3,15 3,02 2,95 2,83 2,79 2,81 2,94 2,93 Mio heads 1000 heads mio heads 1000 tonnes Sectors Cattle Pigs 1,980 2,039 1,780 1,690 1,580 1,490 1,410 1,380 1,350 1,350 1,400 Poultry 1,771 1,683 1,650 1,720 1,755 1,680 1,660 1,640 1,520 1,600 1,650 Dry pet food : Others TOTAL 4,500 4,456 4,150 4,125 4,070 3,870 4,230 4,170 4,050 4,210 4,300 Source: HGFA 0,28 0,29 0,26 Industrial compound feed production in Hungary ( ) 0,23 0,23 0,22 0,21 0,20 0,19 0,20 0, Livestock in Hungary (at 1 December) Pig Sow Beef Cow Dairy cow Poultry Source: KSH

8 1000 tonnes Soybean meal The demand of soybean meal, extruded and full-fat soy in the feed of the different livestock sectors (2015) Others Petfood Beef and other ruminants Pig Poultry Full-fat soybean (protected too) Livestock sectors Total of full fat soybean +soybean meal tonnes Soybean demand (soybean eqv.) Poultry production 323, ,386 Broilers 184, ,530 Laying hens 41,054 50,705 Ducks 20,503 23,943 Geese 7,421 9,198 Turkeys 70,446 85,009 Pig production 143, ,808 Cattle & other rumin. prod. 34,857 41,570 Petfood production 19,771 23,521 Others 20,000 25,000 Total 541, ,284 Source: AKI statistical survey, Hungarian Grain and Feed Association

9 Agricultural land area required to satisfy the need of the different livestock sectors for soybean production in Hungary Livestock sectors Annual soybean demand (tonnes) 2015 Area ensuring annual soybean demand (hectares) 2.56 t/ha average 2.03 t/ha 2.96 t/ha 2.13 t/ha t/ha Poultry production 393, , , , , ,491 Broilers 224,530 87, ,606 75, ,413 72,196 Laying hens 50,705 19,807 24,978 17,130 23,805 16,304 Ducks 23,943 9,353 11,795 8,089 11,241 7,699 Geese 9,198 3,593 4,531 3,107 4,318 2,958 Turkeys 85,009 33,207 41,876 28,719 39,910 27,334 Pig production 173,808 67,894 85,620 58,719 81,600 55,887 Cattle & other ruminants prod. 41,570 16,238 20,478 14,044 19,516 13,367 Petfood production 23,521 9,188 11,587 7,946 11,043 7,563 Others 25,000 9,766 12,315 8,446 11,737 8,039 Total 657, , , , , ,345 Source: AKI statistical survey, Hungarian Grain and Feed Association

10 Soybean production potential in Hungary Real area potential (~100 thousand ha) Improving production level Volatility of soybean yields = volatility of corn yields Increasing production stability Using varieties and maturity class adapted to production area Soil preparation Rationalization of fertilization Optimizing row spacing and plant-to-plant distance (precision sowing drillinvestment) Reducing pesticide use to prevent depressive effect: cultivator (3x!) Increasing nutrient content (pro-fat) Consultancy

11 Source: Tillie and Rodríguez-Cerezo (2015) Price premium of non-gmo soybean meal

12 Estimated price premium of non-gmo soy in Hungary (2015) Harvested area 72,000 ha Production (without seed) 132,000 t 95,000 t for processing (without import!) 37,000 t for export Import Soybean meal + full fat demand tonnes Own production ~465,000 t soybean meal 67,000 t full fat + 22,400 t meal Export: 12,400 t soybean meal Meal premium: 50 /t =309 HUF 77,000 t non-gmo full fat+meal 23.3 mio EUR (7,184 mio HUF) Non-GMO premium 3.85 mio EUR (1,190 mio HUF) Non-GMO premium

13 Estimated price premium driven extra costs of using non-gmo soy in livestock feeds in Hungary (2015) Livestock sectors Annual soybean meal demand tonnes Non-GMO import premium mio EUR (mio HUF) Costs of non-gmo premium (import) EUR/animal (HUF/animal) EUR/kg live weight (HUF/kg lw) Non-GMO premium impact on livestock production feed costs costs % % Poultry production 278, (4332) 0.04 (12) 0.01 (3) Broilers 160, (2501) 0.05 (14) 0.02 (6) Laying hens 38, (601) 0.18 (56) 0.08 (23) Ducks 13, (214) 0.02 (7) 0.01 (2) Geese 7, (111) 0.13 (41) 0.02 (7) Turkeys 58, (906) 0.36 (110) 0.03 (8) Pig production 121, (1890) 0.97 (298) 0.01 (3) Cattle & other ruminants prod. 26, (418) (1) (0) Petfood production 20, (311) Others 15, (233) Total ~461, (7184)

14 Producer Trader Feed industry Livstock keeper Food industry Retail chains Consumer Who will pay the costs of the premium? Who will assure the quality of the standard, and who will controll it? How high is the premium at soybean, full-fat/meal and non-gmo food - that can be realized on the export- or domestic markets? How will the profit be divided within the value chain?

15 Thank you for your attention! Dr. TIKÁSZ Ildikó Edit Agrárközgazdasági Kutatások Osztálya Agricultural Economics Research Department (+36 1)