OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER MINISTRY OF STATE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERN KENYA AND OTHER ARID LANDS ARID LANDS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT PROJECT II

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1 OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER MINISTRY OF STATE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERN KENYA AND OTHER ARID LANDS ARID LANDS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT PROJECT II DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN, APRIL 2010 KILIFI/KALOLENI/GANZE DISTRICTS Seasonal Calendar Short rains harvests Short dry spell Planting/Weeding Long rains Long rains harvests A long dry spell Short rains Planting/weeding Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2 Situation overview 53.8 mm of rainfall was recorded for an average 5 days this month compared to 17.2 mm for 3 days last month. It was characterized by slightly heavy downpours with intervals of drizzles. Pasture and natural vegetation continued to improve this month as they responded to the rains experienced. As a result, distances to grazing areas decreased considerably by 27.8% from 3.6 km last month to 2.6km this month. However, a few areas in the food cropping and marginal mixed farming were yet to receive any substantial rainfall hence pasture was quite lacking in the said regions. There was a 3% decrease in the reliance on water pans and dams from 58% last month to 55% this month for water as other water sources filled with water from the rains. This positive trend is likely to continue as the long rains start in earnest next month. On the flip side though, the rains if excessive as is the norm, may lead to flooding wreaking havoc on crops, humans and infrastructure alike. The average price of a medium-sized bull rose by a 7% increase up from Kshs 7667 in March to Kshs 8200 this month. That of goats rose from Kshs 1356 to Kshs 1604 this month. Increased livestock prices were mainly pegged on the improved livestock body condition due to increased availability of feed after the rains. Cereal-legume prices remained similar to last month with a kilogram of maize retailing at Kshs 29.4 while that of beans at Kshs The price of maize has almost stabilized to normal but those of beans have remained higher than normal. It has therefore been increasingly difficult for most households to afford most legumes due to the cost. The average daily wage rate was recorded at Kshs having increased slightly from Kshs Increases in the wage rate are to be expected as land preparations and weeding activities enter their peak period for the long rain season crop. The number of children at risk for malnutrition decreased slightly this month from 9.4% last month to 8.9% this month. The early warning stage for the entire region is alert with a stable trend. Current interventions Food aid World Vision is providing food aid under the Protracted Relief and Rehabilitation Program under the food for asset program for 43 water pans and 13 community farms in both Kilifi and Kaloleni. GOK distribution for Kaloleni and Kilifi to support vulnerable HH not catered or under the PRRP initiative. Non-food interventions Kayafungo and Dzaoya water pans are being excavated by ALRMP. ALRMP has constructed a water trough and toilet at Bokola and Makumbo water pans respectively to enhance sanitation. AMREF to excavate one water pan in Kaloleni district. Pwani Christian Community Centre in Kaloleni is distributing 100 bags of fertilizers to 100 identified households. Recommendations Disease surveillance to curb human and livestock diseases that prevail during the rainy season. Flood mitigation measures to curb the destruction of life and property during the on-coming long rains usually associated with floods. Excavation of more rain-water harvesting structures in the marginal mixed farming and food cropping livelihood zones.

3 Rehabilitation of water structures destroyed by the heavy rains. Promotion of drought tolerant crop varieties. Control and management of the current cholera outbreak A nutritional survey to establish underlying causes of malnutrition in the ranching zone that has been posting high malnutrition rates. 1.0 Environmental indicators (Stability) 1.1 Rainfall Average rainfall for April 2010 versus long-term average in Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts Long term Mm Average rainfall n= mm of rainfall was recorded for an average of 5 days this month down from 17.2 mm recorded this month. The amount is set to increase as the region s long rains season has begun although not in earnest. The highest rainfall was recorded in the ranching zone at mm for 7 days while the least rainfall was collected in the marginal mixed farming one at 43 mm for 5 days. The current and long-term rainfall estimates are illustrated below.

4 1.2. Condition of natural vegetation and pasture Quality and quantity Natural vegetation and pasture has continued to improve this month due to the on-going rains. This has continued to impact positively on the distances to grazing areas for livestock. However, areas in the food cropping zone which have not received much rains spot pockets of deficient pasture and browse. NDVI Vitengeni division (Jan-Apr 2010) RFE_2010 RFEavg NDVI_2010 NDVIavg Rainfall (mm) Month/Dekad Distance to grazing areas Average return distances to grazing areas for April 2010 in Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts Oct Months Jul Apr Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Long-term average Return distances to grazing areas Return distances to grazing areas in kilometres n= 360

5 Distances to grazing areas decreased by 27.8% from 3.6 km last month to 2.6km this month. This was attributed to availability of adequate pasture and forage due to the on-going rains. Further decreases are expected as the long rain season gets on. Distances were longest in the cash cropping and dairy zone at 3.05km while the shortest were found in the marginal mixed farming at 2.3 km. Compared to the long-term average 07-09, the distances were shorter than expected for this time of the year. 1.3 Water sources and availability Main sources of water Access to water in Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts April 2010 Natural ponds Natural rivers Boreholes Traditional river wells Long-term % of users Current % of users Other water sources Pans and dams % of water users relied on pans and dams this month compared to 58% last month. The slight decrease was attributed to other water sources slowly being replenished with water thereby lessening the demand on the main sources of water. Compared to the long-term average 06-08, the numbers were slightly lower than normal Household access to water Average distance in km for households' access to water for April 2010 vs long-term average in Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze Km Long term Average distance

6 Access to water by households was made slightly easier this month as the distances walked were reduced by 30.4% from 2.3 km last month to 1.6 km this month. Distances are likely to reduce even further in the months to come owing to the on-going rains. The longest distances were recorded in the food cropping zone at 2.4 km and shortest in the marginal mixed farming at 1.15km. Compared to the long-term average 07-09, the distances were below those expected for this time of the year Livestock access to water Access to water by livestock was good this month as most water sources continued to fill with water from the rains received. Although the long rain season has not begun in earnest, it is likely that access is going to be even easier in the coming months Implication on food security. Distances to grazing areas and household access to water have reduced considerably, thanks to the on-going rains. This has ensured sufficient livestock feed and increased availability of water for domestic use. Although a few areas in the food cropping zone are yet to receive rain, it is expected that rains will come next month. This is likely to impact quite positively on food security across livelihoods. 2.0 Rural economy indicators (Food availability) 2.1. Livestock production Livestock body condition The livestock body condition of both large and small stock ranged from fair to good this month. Increased availability of livestock feed has been the primary reason for this. The situation is likely to improve in the coming months Livestock diseases No major livestock diseases were reported in the month under review Milk production Long term Number of bottles Average production 2010 Average milk production at household level for April 2010 versus long-term average Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts The average milk production reduced slightly from an average 19.3 bottles last month to an average 17.3 bottles this month. The highest production was recorded in the ranching zone at an average 41.0 bottles while the least was recorded in both the cash cropping and dairy and the food cropping zones at 6.0 bottles. Compared to the long-term average 07-09, the production was slightly above that expected this month by approximately 8.8%.

7 2.2 Crop production Timeliness and status of crop production activities The main on-farm activities this month are planting and weeding as most households take advantage of the loosened soil on the ground owing to the rains. The earlier planted crop that has survived the earlier drier conditions is currently being weeded but most are replanting after the earlier sown seeds resisted germination due to lack of rain Pests and diseases No major pests have been reported in the month under review Crop Harvests. Cassava and coconuts were being harvested this month similar to last month. 2.3 Implications on food security Most households have almost depleted their food stocks with some already heavily relying on retail stores for food. This is likely to impact negatively on the food security situation which is already quite bad in the marginal mixed farming zone. However, with the onset of the rains, there could be a turn-around of this situation. 3. Access to food 3.1 Livestock marketing Goat prices Average goat prices at household level for April 2010 versus long-term average for Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts Long-term average Kshs Average goat prices

8 Kshs 1604 was the trading price for a medium-sized goat for the month of April. This was a 15.5% increase compared to Kshs 1356 recorded in the month of March. The price increase could be due to the improved body condition of the smaller stock as their feed became more available in most livelihood zones. The highest prices were recorded in the marginal mixed farming at Kshs 2133 while the least was recorded in the ranching zone at Kshs Compared to the long-term average 07-09, the price was above normal Cattle prices Average household cattle prices for Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts in April 2010 versus long-term average Kshs Long term ave Average cattle prices

9 Kshs 8200 was the retailing price for a medium-sized bull this month compared to Kshs 7667 recorded last month. This was equivalent to a 7% percent increase owing to the improved condition of livestock following the rains. The food cropping zone reported the highest prices at Kshs 9400 while the least were to be found in the ranching zone at Kshs Milk consumption Average milk consumption for April 2010 versus long-term average in Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts Number of bottles Long term Average consumption Milk consumption almost doubled this month as it rose from an average 2.5bottles to 4.3 bottles. The ranching zone recorded the highest consumption at an average 8.0 bottles while the least recorded 2.0 bottles reported in the cash cropping and dairy zone.

10 Compared to the long-term average 07-09, the household level consumption was lower than normal. 3.3 Food prices Maize prices Average maize prices at household level for April 2010 versus long-term average for Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts Kshs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Maize long-term average Average maize price A kilogram of maize was selling at Kshs 29.4 this month, a slight decrease from Kshs 29.9 last month. The highest crop prices were recorded in the food cropping zone at Kshs 30.6 while the least were to be found in the ranching one at Kshs Maize prices have stabilized and almost the same as normal in most livelihood zones.

11 3.3.2 Beans prices Kshs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Beans long-term average Average bean price Average bean prices at household level for April 2010 versus long-term average in Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts The price of a kilogram of beans also remained similar to last month posting an average price of Kshs 75.4 compared to March s Kshs As both legumes and cereals are no longer being harvested, their price remained quite the same due to normal supply chains. The highest bean prices were posted in the ranching zone at Kshs 82.0 while the least were recorded in the cash cropping and dairy zone at Kshs 66.3.

12 Compared to the long-term average 07-09, the price was higher than normal for this time of the year. 3.4 Income Income sources Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts April % 4% 1% Casual labour 8% 48% Sale of charcoal 7% Petty trading 19% Formal employment n=339 Casual labour was the main income-generating activity for most households in the 3 districts followed by the sale of charcoal. Land preparations were rife as households took advantage of the rains that had begun in some areas to sow seeds. The other sources of income were as above. The average daily wage rate was Kshs 156.8, registering an increase of 5.4% compared to last month s Kshs Increased demand for land preparations saw to the increased in the wage rate. The highest daily wage rate was recorded in the cash cropping and dairy at Kshs while the least was recorded in the ranching zone at Kshs Implications on food security With dwindling availability of food in most households stores, the food security situation did not look very promising for some parts of the district especially in the marginal mixed farming areas. Although food commodity prices have considerably reduced, most cannot still afford a decent meal and have to make do with at most two meals a day. However, livestock production may offer the much-needed cushion for food security as livestock prices continue to increase. This is likely to offer some relief before the next harvest in three to four months.

13 4.0 Human welfare indicators (Utilisation of food) 4.1 Nutrition status Long term mean % MUAC Average MUAC Average Mid-Upper Arm Circumference for April 2010 versus long-term average in Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts n =1827 The proportion of children at risk reduced by 0.5% this month from 9.4% last month to 8.9% this month. This could be owed to the increased milk consumption recorded at household level that ensured that the children aged less than five years got sufficient nourishment. The highest proportion of the children at risk for malnutrition was found in the ranching livelihood zone at 18.2% while the least was found in the cash cropping and dairy zone at 1.6%.

14 Compared to the long-term average 06-09, the recorded 8.9% was higher than the expected 7.78% for this time of the year. 4.2 Human health No diseases have been reported in the district this month. 4.3 Flagged areas The ranching zone continues to post a very high rate of malnutrition that needs close monitoring. 5.0 Coping strategies Coping strategy index for April 2010 versus long-term average in Kilifi/Kaloleni/Ganze districts Coping strategy index Long term The coping strategy index this month was 1.5 similar to last month. The highest index was recorded in the marginal mixed farming at 2.0 while the least was in the food cropping one at 0.8. The main coping strategies this month was the reduction in size and number of meals, casual labour, the sale of charcoal, firewood and local sisal and swapping to cheaper or less preferred foods such as cassava and sorghum. 5.1 Ongoing interventions a) Food aid World Vision is providing food aid under the Protracted Relief and Rehabilitation Program under the food for asset program for 13 community farms and 43 water pans in Kilifi, Ganze and Kaloleni. b) Non-food aid Kayafungo and Dzaoya water pans are being excavated by ALRMP. ALRMP has constructed a water trough and toilet at Bokola and Makumbo water pans respectively to enhance sanitation. Pwani Christian Community Centre in Kaloleni is distributing 100 bags of fertilizers to 100 identified households. Construction of three classrooms and one centre of excellence to support education in Bamba division of Ganze District. 6.0 Recommendations Disease surveillance to curb human and livestock diseases that prevail during the rainy season. Flood mitigation measures to curb the destruction of life and property during the on-coming long rains usually associated with floods.

15 Excavation of more rain-water harvesting structures in the marginal mixed farming and food cropping livelihood zones. A nutritional survey to establish underlying causes of malnutrition in the ranching zone that has been posting high malnutrition rates. Rehabilitation of critical water sources destroyed by the heavy rains in Bamba division.