Modeling Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change Ron Sands Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA

Transcription

1 Modeling Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change Ron Sands Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA The 6 th AIM International Workshop March 2001, Tsukuba, Japan

2 Presentation Overview Why model agriculture and land use? AgLU model overview Land use and demand for food Scenarios of land use change Model development Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

3 Why Model Agriculture? Carbon emissions from energy consumption are not the whole story. Carbon emissions from land-use change Carbon mitigation using biomass fuels CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from agriculture Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

4 AgLU Regions Annex I USA and Canada (NAM) Western Europe (WEU) Eastern Europe (EEU) Former Soviet Union (FSU) Japan, Australia, New Zealand (PAO) Non-Annex I Latin America (LAM) Middle East (MEA) Africa (AFR) China and Centrally- Planned Asia (CPA) South Asia (SAS) Other Pacific Asia (PAS) Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

5 AgLU Model Structure Supply Solution Mechanism Demand Climate Local Taxes & Subsidies Population Technology Local Price Income Biomass Price Supply of Crops, Livestock, Biomass Energy, & Forest Products World Market Demand for Crops, Livestock, & Forest Products Land Use Emissions

6 Methodology Highlights Forest Dynamics Trees in AgLU grow for 45 years Two forest markets (current and future) needed for model stability Land Allocation Land owners compare economic returns across crops, biomass, pasture, and future trees Underlying probability distribution of yields per hectare Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

7 Land Allocation unmanaged pasture forest food coarse oil grains grains crops other crops biomass crops Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

8 Demand for Food Crops Rice, Wheat, Coarse Grains Starchy Roots, Fruits, Vegetables, Pulses Processed Crops Vegetable Oils Sweeteners Alcoholic Beverages Animal Products Beef, Pork, Poultry Milk, Butter, Eggs Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

9 Global Food Balance (kcal per person per day) Activity Final Demand Processed Animal Other Stock Total Crops Crops Products Food Uses Change Production Crops ,041 1, ,959 Processed Crops Animal Products

10 1990 Food Consumption 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 kcal per person per day 2,000 Animal Products Processed Crops Crops 1,500 1, NAM LAM WEU EEU FSU MEA AFR CPA SAS PAS PAO Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

11 Demand for Food X ijt = A ij P α ij β Y ij ijt ijt N jt C ijt i = crops, processed crops, animal products j is a region index t is time X is quantity demanded A is a constant to calibrate the price and income feedback terms P is price Y is per-capita income N is total population by region C is calories consumed per person per day in base year Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

12 10 Land Use (reference case) 9 8 billion hectares Unmanaged Managed Forest Pasture Crop Land

13 10 Land Use (increased animal products) 9 billion hectares Unmanaged Managed Forest Pasture 2 1 Crop Land

14 10 Land Use (+ animal products, C policy) 9 8 Unmanaged billion hectares Managed Forest Biomass 3 Pasture 2 1 Crop Land

15 Land Use (reference case) billion hectares Unmanaged Managed Forest Pasture 1 Crop Land

16 Land Use (increased animal products) 10 9 billion hectares Unmanaged Managed Forest Pasture 2 1 Crop Land

17 Land Use (+ animal products, C policy) Unmanaged 7 billion hectares Managed Forest Biomass 3 Pasture 2 1 Crop Land

18 Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change 1,400 1,200 1, Tg C 600 Carbon Policy and Increased Animal Products Increased Animal Products Reference Historical

19 Model Development Climate impacts CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from agriculture Crop management and carbon sequestered in soils Embed in CGE Framework Water Supply and Demand Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

20 Climate Impacts Previous ENSO study for North America El Nino (EN) Strong El Nino (SEN) El Viejo (EV) Climate change and crop yields CO 2 at 365 ppmv and 560 ppmv GCMs: UIUC, UIUC+sulfates, BMRC Climate Sensitivity: 1.0 C and 2.5 C EPIC crop growth model Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

21 Table III.17. Average Yields across EPIC Representative Farms (Mg ha -1 ) Average Deviation from Average Yield Country Crop N EN SEN EV US Corn US Winter Wheat Canada Barley Canada Canola Canada Spring Wheat Mexico Corn Mexico Beans Mexico Wheat Mexico Irrigated Corn Mexico Irrigated Beans Mexico Irrigated Wheat