A World View of Phosphorus

Transcription

1 A World View of Phosphorus Paul E. Fixen Senior Vice President November 15, 2013 The world needs to produce more food 50 to 70 % increase by 2050, some predict 100% Options: 1. Increase harvested area 2. Increase yield Phosphorus is essential in filling that need Inter. Rice Res. Inst. (IRRI) Inter. Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) Brazil, D.M.G. de Souse Canada, Agrium

2 Comparison of P removal by crops in the U.S. to P applied as fertilizer & manure (2007) P 2 O 5, million tons 5.5* Removal exceeded P fertilizer use by 1.2 million tons An agronomic need exists for manure P. Field applied manure P is equivalent to 33% of P removed in harvested crops a significant amount But much of it is not produced where feed is grown Creates regions of surplus and of deficits. P removal by crops is increasing 3 times faster than manure P production Demand for and value of manure P should grow. NuGIS, 1/12/2012; *Average removal for History of Phosphate Fertilizer Early sources were mostly animal based bones, guano, manure Treatment of bones with acid to increase P solubility started early to mid 1800s Sulfuric acid treatment process of bones and P minerals (apatite) was patented in mid 1800s. Today most P fertilizer production is based on acidification of apatite from phosphate rock (PR) Guano mining, Chincha Islands, Peru 1860 Guano mining, Chincha Islands, Peru, 1860 U.S. phosphate operation, late 1800s Formation of Phosphate Rock (PR) Deposits Most (>80%) PR used in fertilizer production is sedimentary but igneous deposits are also used Sedimentary PRs were formed in continental shelf marine environments and are thus taken from present or former continental margins Igneous PR was formed mostly in shield areas and rift zones result of direct volcanic activity usually lower solubility than sedimentary PRs Generalized sedimentary deposit (Florida)

3 World P Resources Source: IFDC PR reserves and resources Definitions: Reserves- PR that can be economically produced at the time of the determination using existing technology. Resources- PR of any grade, including reserves, that may be produced at some time in the future. System appears straightforward, but estimates are plagued with uncertainty PR reserves and resources- History IOE articles drew attention to PR reserves, estimating depletion in next years Caused significant work in this area in the 1970 s & 80 s USGS & USBM heavily engaged in efforts during this time In 1995 congress dismantled USBM Since then detailed traditional public literature has been limited

4 PR reserves and resources History Numerous recent publicity pointing to a looming shortage of PR TED Lecture Oct June 2009 Nature, Oct Global reserves depleted in yrs 2008 PR reserves and resources 2010 IFDC report In-depth literature review on past and current PR estimates Reviewed methods for estimating world PR reserves/resources Made preliminary updated estimate of world PR reserves/resources Van Kauwenbergh, S.J World phosphate rock reserves and resources. IFDC, Muscle Shoals, AL, USA, Phosphate rock reserve and resource estimates reported by USGS and IFDC USGS IFDC In one year USGS reserves increased 4x USGS and IFDC, 2010

5 PR reserves as reported by USGS/USBM USGS Mineral Commodities Summaries Reserve estimates for the world s top 10 PR reserve holders and their % or world reserves USGS Mineral Commodity Summary, 2013 PR production for the world & selected countries USBM and USGS

6 Conclusions Worldwide there appears to be ample PR for the foreseeable future. Based on USGS 2012 production and reserve estimates- 319 years of production Based on USGS 2012 production and resource estimates- >1,400 years of production Oil, gas, & Zn have shorter reserve lives than P (Our Nutrient World, 2013) PR reserves unevenly distributed globally Morocco, 75%; China, 6%; US 2% (USGS, 2012 reserves) US reserves estimated at 40 to 50 times current annual PR production PR is a nonrenewable resource and deserves best stewardship efforts Need for & value of P recycled from manure should increase