National Drought Management Authority EMBU COUNTY

Transcription

1 National Drought Management Authority EMBU COUNTY EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR EMBU 215 AUGUST EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators The 3 months Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) shows a slight decline but normal condition in Mbeere north and Mbeere south sub-counties as well as the county. The current VCI values are slightly below the long term average values and indicate no drought in Embu County. There was minimal precipitation experienced in the month of August, cloudy weather experienced for most days. The average rainfall recorded in three stations in Mbeere was 6.3 mm. Average return distance is 5.2 kilometres; longer distances trekked in marginal mixed farming (MMF) livelihood zone. Water sources in use include both surface and subsurface sources, likely to last two months. Some sources run all year round. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) There is a decline in the general condition of forage in Mbeere. Pasture depletion is evident in MMF zone. Browse is however available but on the decline in both livelihood zones. Livestock body condition is fair in MMF and good in mixed farming (MF) livelihood zone. The terms of trade (TOT) for households in the month were.29. A slight increase in food prices was observed in the month. Food availability is good across the county, majority of households utilizing the long rains harvests. The season s performance was fairly good across the county. LIVELIHOOD EW TRENDS ZONE PHASE PASTORAL MARGINAL NORMAL ALERT WORSENING STABLE AGROPASTORAL MIXED ALERT WORSENING COUNTY FARMING ALERT WORSENING MIXED NORMAL STABLE FARMING Biophysical COUNTY Indicators NORMAL Value STABLE Normal ranges Biophysical % of average Indicators rainfall (Oct-Value 42 Normal 8-12 March, Wajir airport) ranges(lta) Average VCI-3month rainfall (August) SPI- State 3 of Months Water Sources VCI-3month (Embu) State Production of Water indicators Sources 5 (normal) Value 5 Normal (normal) ranges Production Livestock Migration indicators Pattern Value Normal Normal Livestock Body Conditions 4 ranges 4-5 Milk Production Livestock Migration Normal (LTA) Normal 36.1 Pattern Livestock deaths (for No death No death Livestock drought) Body 6 in MF 6 in MF Conditions Crops area planted (%) 5 in MMF 5 % in of MMF LTA Milk Production (litres) Livestock Access Indicators deaths (for No Value death Normal death drought) ranges Crops Terms area of Trade planted (ToT) (%) % of -.76 LTA Milk Consumption Access Water for Indicators Households Value Normal ranges Utilization indicators Terms of Trade (ToT) Value.29 Normal (LTA) ranges - Milk MUAC Consumption Water Coping for Strategy Households Index (CSI) 8 lts lts 1.2 Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges(lta) MUAC Coping Strategy Index.95 - Current Drought Risk Low Medium High Houhsehold food security situation is generally good across the county with majority of the households food secure following the good performance of the 215 long rains. Livestock production is good across the two major livelihoods of Mbeere. Forage decline in the MMF may affect livestock production in thext one or two months.

2 Amount in mm BIO-PHYSICAL INDICATORS 1. MEASURING DROUGHT HAZARD 1.1 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT Actual Rainfall Amount of rainfall and Spatial distribution August comes in the mid of the dry spell after the short rains season hence minimal precipitation was experienced particularly in the semi arid part of the county. The amount of precipitation recorded in the month was 6.3 mm. These had negligible impact on forage or water sources. A rainfall distribution trend in Mbeere is as shown in the graph below: Rainfall distribution in Mbeere-Embu County 4. Rainfall distribution in Mbeere noorth and Mbeere south sub-counties LTA YEAR YEAR Source: Gachoka, Siakago and Ishiara rainfall stations. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories Color VCI values Drought Category 3-monthly average 5 Wet 35 to 5 No Drought 21 to 34 Moderate Drought 1 to 2 Severe Drought <1 Extreme Drought There was a decline in the 3 month VCI values for Mbeere north and Mbeere south sub-counties as well as the county VCI values. Even so, the 3 month VCI values show no drought status condition. The current 3 month VCI values Embu are slightly below the long term average but far above values for year 214 for a similar period. The 3 month VCI values for August are as follows: Embu county 45.35, Mbeere north 4.35, Mbeere south

3 The trend is as shown in the seasonal graphs and matrices below. Pasture and Browse Conditions Pasture Pasture is on fast decline in the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone of the county. Parts of Kamarandi, Kiambere and Makima wards have already shown signs of pasture depletion. Pasture quality is also poor across Mbeere. Pasture is however available in the mixed farming livelihood zone. Grazing distances are within normal range. The available pasture is likely to last two months, thought scarcity may be experienced earlier in the MMF zone. Browse Browse is adequate and of good quality in all livelihood zones. The available browse is likely to last three months on average. 3

4 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT Water Resource State of Water Sources Households utilized rivers, shallow wells, shallow wells, boreholes, pipes water systems, dams and pans for both household and livestock water use. These are normal water sources for the month. Water levels in surface water sources continue to reduce particularly in the mixed farming livelihood zone due to increased demand in the Khat (Miraa/Muguka) farming. There is water rationing in piped water systems, which affects domestic water users mainly, evident by increased congestion at the communal water points. Household water source utilization in the month was as shown in the chart below. Water Sources Utilization PANS AND DAMS 4% SPRINGS 6% BOREHOLES 1% OTHERS 13% NATURAL RIVERS 33% SHALLOW WELLS 25% TRADITIONAL RIVER WELLS 9% A. MEASURING DROUGHT IMPACT ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2. PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production Livestock Ownership Livestock concentration is higher in the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, mainly comprising of goats and sheep. The zone suffered livestock loses during the past droughts hence a low Tropical Livestock Unit (TLU) per household. The average TLU in Mbeere is Livestock Migration Patterns There were no livestock migrations reported in the month. Livestock grazed within their normal grazing field, with a few encroachments into the reserves within the hill sides in the MMF. This observation is normal for this time of the year Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition is good for all species in Mbeere. In the MMF livelihood zone, body condition for cattle is on the decline, ranging between fair and good due to the decline in pastures. This observation is however normal Livestock Diseases Unconfirmed cases of CCPP were reported mainly in the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. Newcastle is also a common threat among poultry farmers Milk Production 4

5 Production in 75 ml bottles There was a notable reduction in the average milk production at household level. This observation could be attributed to the decline forage condition across the county. In the month of August, the average household milk production was 53 litres compared to 7 litres recorded in July. The current milk production is however above the long term average as well as last year s production for a similar month. Trends in the average household milk production are as shown in the graph below Average milk production at household level in Mbeere LTA YEAR YEAR Livestock deaths Minimal livestock deaths were reported in the month. These normal deaths were as a result of slaughter or predation. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Stage and Condition of food Crops Land preparation in readiness for the OND long rains is the main agricultural activity in the county. The short rains being the main season in the region, some farmers open new fields for crop cultivation and therefore bush clearing mainly in the MMF livelihood zone. The rains which are forecasted to be above normal are expected in October. Horticultural crops under irrigation are at various stages of development. Such include kales, tomatoes, and water melons among others. 3. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices Livestock Terms of Trade The average price of Maize and posho in the month was Ksh and the average price of shoat per kg was Ksh.135. hence the terms of trade was.29, which is an improvement from.31 recorded in July; and within seasonal norm Cattle Prices A decline in the average price of cattle was observed. This could be as a result of the high supply in the market against low demand. Households sell more cattle in the month for school fees and as a destocking strategy due to pasture stress particularly in the MMF zone. The average price for cattle in the month was Ksh. 12,., a lower price compared to Ksh. 16,5. recorded in July. The current average cattle price is slightly above the long term average price in a similar month. 5

6 Price per head (KES) Price per head in KES Average cattle price trends are as shown in the graph below. 25 Average cattle prices in Mbeere at market level LTA YEAR YEAR Small Ruminants Prices (goat) An increase in the average price of goats was observed in the month. Currently, a medium size goat sells at an average price of Ksh. 3,7.. This price is above last year s as well as the long term average price for a similar month. The average price trend for goats in Mbeere markets is as shown in the graph below 45 Average goat prices in Mbeere at Market level LTA YEAR YEAR Milk Prices Milk price ranged between Ksh per litre, the latter being the price in marginal mixed farming livelihood zones. Production is also low in the aforementioned zone. These prices are normal for this time of the year. 3.2 Price of cereals and other food products Maize The graph below shows the average price trend for maize in Mbeere. 6

7 Price per Kg (KES) Price per Kg (Ksh) 5 Average price of maize in Mbeere LTA YEAR YEAR MONTH OF THE YEAR The month of August marks the climax of the long rains harvest season for maize crop, mainly produced in the mixed farming livelihood zone and other parts of the County s grain basket. There was adequate supply of maize in the market in the month, selling at an average price of Ksh. 34. per kilogram, a price equal to the long term average price. The current price is lower compared to year 214 price in August. The observed trend is normal Posho (Maize Meal) Currently the price of posho is Ksh.6. per kilogram, which is a higher price compared to last month s (Ksh45.) Beans The graph below shows the average price trend for beans in Mbeere markets 12 1 Average price of beans LTA YEAR YEAR The average price of beans increased in the month, trading at an average price of Ksh. 72. per kilogram. The current average price is slightly below the long term average but within seasonal norm. Beans prices varied with varieties and across markets. 3.3 Access to Food and Water Availability of milk for household consumption There was a decline in household milk production, and consequently consumption at the household level. 7

8 No. of 75 ml bottles On average, the household monthly milk consumption was 54 litres out of the monthly production of 56 litres. Milk consumption trend at household level is as shown in the graph below. 12 Milk consumption trends in Mbeere LTA YEAR YEAR Availability of water for household consumption Household access and Utilization Water situation is fairly good, whereby households utilize both permanent and seasonal water sources for household use and livestock. There is increased congestion and consequently waiting time at communal water points resulting from water rationing. The average return distance for households is 5.2 kilometres. Longer water distances are trekked in the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. The average price for 2 litres water jerican is Ksh. 2. while on average a household uses about 8 litres daily. Livestock access Water for livestock is accessible within normal distances, mainly from dams, rivers and other sources used by households. The average water distance for livestock is 2.6 kilometres. Longer water distances are however covered in the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. 4. UTILISATION INDICATORS 4.1 Health and Nutrition Status Child nutritional status improved in the month as evident by the improvement in the rate of children at risk of malnutrition in the graph below. Out of 2,159 children of age category months engaged in the monthly drought monitoring in Mbeere, only 3% of them were found to have MUAC < 135 mm and therefore at risk of malnutrition. Last month 3.4% were at risk of malnutrition. The current MUAC rates are lower than the long term average as well as last year s August rates of at risk of malnutrition. The improved nutritional status of children could be attributed to the improved availability of food at household level. Higher MUAC rates were recorded in the mixed farming livelihood zone compared to the marginal mixed zone. 8

9 MUAC<135 mm as percentage at risk The graph below shows the trend in MUAC rates In Mbeere. Child nutrition status trends-mbeere Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Ave Year Year n=2,159 children Malnutrition The rate of children at risk of malnutrition in August was 3 %. This tabulates to 38 children with MUAC < 135 mm. Health There was no human disease outbreak reported in Mbeere sub-counties. 4.2 Coping Strategy Coping Strategy Index The current coping strategy index is within normal range, at.95. The chart below shows the various coping strategies applied by households to deal with food stress. Coping Strategies applied by households in August Feed working members at expense of non-working 4% Skip food consumption for an entire day 1% Begging or engauging in degrading jobs 4% Restriction of adults to allow more for children 4% Borrow food from a friend of relative 14% Send household members to eat elsewhere 1% Consumed wild foods 1% Purchase food on credit 25% Reduction in the number of meals per day 12% Reduction in size of maels 11% Swapped consumption to less preferred or cheaper foods 23% 9

10 5. Current Intervention Measures 5.1 Food security prognosis Household food security is stable; food is available at household level and in the markets from the long rains harvest. Decline in stocks may be experienced in a month s time particularly in the MMF where last season s performance was not optimal. 6. Recommendations Capacity building of farmers on soil and water conservation, a practice that is minimally adopted in Mbeere. Embrace drought resilience activities aimed at improving community capacity to cope during drought hazards particularly in the MMF zones De-silting of water intakes and dams before the OND short rains season. 1