Regional Consultation on Climate Services at the National Level for South East Europe. Agriculture

Transcription

1 Regional Consultation on Climate Services at the National Level for South East Europe Agriculture Prof. Ordan Chukaliev, Ph.D. Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food University of Ss Cyril and Methodius, Skopje Antalya - Turkey November, 2014

2 The needs for climate services in the Agriculture sector in the region

3 Who need climate services in the Agriculture sector

4 Decision maker

5 For scientific based decision making

6 Researchers

7 For fancy papers and reports, conferences

8 Producers - Farmers

9 For making their living

10 All groups need different services but All of them need clearly targeted information according their needs

11 Decision maker Long term forecast for policy planning Early season crop yield forecasting Sezonal forecasts Etc (HELP!!!!!) But is there meaning of this expression: in 10 years temperature will increase for 0,75oC and rainfall will decrease for 8% They understand: the maize yield will decrease for 20% and national production will drop for XXXX. Or better national economy will lost XXX EUR

12 Researchers They need row data. Give me your data and let me run my models and analyses I need more papers for keeping my position (or getting better position)

13 Producers - Farmers Seasonal forecasts 10-day forecast Comparison of LTA with present weather Comparison of previous year with this year Comparison of similar years Daily information But They need translated language: Temperature accumulation since beginning of the season is higher by 20% than LTA means your crop shortened development and it will reach flowering stage 10 days earlier Or: Rainfall accumulation in previous 10-days period was 70% lower than LTA means drought you should irrigate (when and how much)

14 And more important how to transfer information to him?

15 And have in mind They are

16 The types of climate services you currently access and use, including any good practices

17 It was presented that there is not available climate services in the country We used JRC MARS tools, but they are not available any more We started to develop our FARMERS SUPPORT SYSTEMS Irrigation Scheduling (in Bitola and Resen) Spraying information (Resen)

18 Workshop on Crop Yield Forecasting in SEE

19 Serbia provide services (meteorological and agrometeorological data including crop model CropSyst). The influence of the assumed weather conditions on development and yield of corn in the rest of the upcoming growing season is forecasted for three different weather scenarios (dry and hot, normal, cool and wet) defined for the period 1 July 31 August based on daily meteorological data ( ). Further, example of 10 days CropSyst bulletin was presented. The bulletin is available on University of Novi Sad is developing tools for using meteorological data for issuing recommendations for the farmers

20 In Turkey TARBiL operate 1200 robo-stations and more than 2500 phenological CT sampling fields. They analyse more than mobile field samplings during the season. The data are collected and processed in 250mx250m grid resolution. The sampling frequency is every 10 minutes for agro-meteo data and every 30 minutes for agro-pheno data. Despite sampled data, more than 120 different parameters are computed and stored. Their activities cover declaration data for more than 2 millions of farmers that operate with more than 28 million of parcels.

21 Moreover the use of AroMetShell in Turkey is based on 265 meteorological stations that provide daily data. Further, these data are processed in decadal and monthly values. The meteorological data are combined with RS data (NDVI). The crop parameters are calculated based on meteorological data. These data combined with soil data and historical yield statistic as well as management data are in statistical model. The final product is crop yield forecast that are presented in bulletin on crop yield forecast. The presentation gave lot of examples of use of AgroMetShell in Turkey (maps, graphs and tables). In the final stage, Bulletin on crop yield forecast issued by Central Research institute on field crops was presented. The bulletin on crop yield forecasting is accessible via

22 In Hungary the yield forecasting activities started in During the period , it became operational with support from JRC crop yield forecasting activities for following crops : winter wheat, winter barley, spring barley, grain maize, green maize, sunflower, sugar beet and alfalfa. The yield forecast is issued 4 times per a year.

23 In Romania the agrometeorological products for all interested parties are available at (in Romanian language.).

24 In Croatia the agrometeorological forecast is part of the daily activities of the department and agrometeorological forecast is regularly broadcasted as part of an agricultural or morning programme on TV and radio. In addition, agrometeorological bulletin is regularly published and accessible through (in Croatian). The ECMWF products are regularly used in preparation of meteograms for soil temperature and moisture, evapotranspiration and other parameters 9 days in advance.

25 Slovenian agrometeorological data flow: Data for agrometeorological parameters are available on: and data for phenology are available on: The evapotranspiration estimated by Penman Monteith method is also available on: The soil water properties map is developed for Slovenia by Biotechnical Faculty. TDR (Trime) measurements of soil water content are recorded at three soil depths and precipitation is managed within meteorological monitoring. Ten-day bulletins during the vegetation period are produced and available online on: ar/.

26 In Montenegro some of the agro meteorological data are available through web site (in Montenegrin). Data that can be accessed are soil temperature at standard depths, Agrometeorological Bulletin, soil temperature at 5cm depth, phenology and Tenday Review.

27 In Bosnia and Herzegovina agrometeorological data are available on FHMIBiH ( and RHMIRS ( The products available on the web site are: Agrometeorological 7-day report (prepared every Friday), Agrometeorological 7-day forecast (prepared every Friday), Soil temperature on two depths (5 and 20 cm), daily report for several stations on WEB (07, 14, 21), Basic parameters for 10 days (tabular and graphical form) on WEB (Tavg, Tmax, Tmin, Tmin on 5 cm, precipitation). In addition, the web services offer and four DAY FORECAST for soil temperature and soil evaporation, based on numerical model WRF-NMM.

28 Challenges in accessing and using climate information and services

29 Agriculture need services regularly and on time, tomorrow is usually to late My field is not meteorological station where data are collected. It is specific site on the map. We need site specific information related to my specific conditions (soil, weather, crop )

30 The access to the services should be easy and quick. TV and radio programs, Web sites, SMS messages are old fashion technologies. Smart phone applications should be developed with site specific information

31 Two environmental challenges? Climate Change & Desertification

32 What is this? Worming world & Desertification

33 What is affected? All of us, whole humanity

34 But we have solutions?

35 Do he has?

36 We will finish this meeting. And many more

37 Will he benefit from this? Because his benefit is my benefit, he will produce food for me, he will use less water, he will keep food and environment safe

38 Cooperation/Synergies Between/among institutions in the region (not all should provide forecasts)

39 Cooperation/Synergies Between/among service providers and service users

40 Cooperation/Synergies Between/among?????

41 CONCLUSION We need services, but ask what and how we need it. I highly appreciate this meeting and opportunity to be part of it, because question was delivered!

42 CONCLUSION Unfortunately I can not give right answer but Process started I am looking forward for your contribution!!!!

43 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION